Blue Virginia published an article calling out eleven Republican legislators whose districts went for Hillary Clinton in the November election.
Those Republican delegates are Jim LeMunyon (67th), Dave Albo (42nd), Tag Greason (32nd), Jackson Miller (50th), Mark Dudenhefer (2nd), “Sideshow Bob” Marshall (13th), David Yancey (94th), Scott Lingamfelter (31st), Robert Bloxom Jr. (100th), Randy Minchew (10th) and Rich Anderson (51st). Another two – Ron Villanueva (21st) and Tim Hugo (40th) – hold districts where Clinton barely lost. In theory, if Democrats could pick up the 11 seats won by Hillary Clinton, we’d be at 45 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates, within striking distance of taking back the House.
As always, it is prudent to keep an eye on what our Democrat friends are thinking. For those considering investing in Republican candidates in 2017, here are eleven who could certainly use your support. Electoral strategy should no longer be merely the purview of political insiders. Activists and election-day Republicans should be looking for ways to support the Republican Party financially in thoughtful and deliberate ways. Obviously, much of the inside politics and intelligence never makes it to the voting public, but what does make it to the public’s attention should be acted on.
So…now the key is for Democrats to recruit strong challengers – and for state and national Democrats to support them financially and in every other way – at LEAST for the most vulnerable 11 Republicans holding down Hillary Clinton districts, plus as many others as possible in districts that Mark Herring won (or got around 50% in), etc.
Now, in truth, many of these Democrats are only as safe as we allow them to be. Remember, one of the reasons why Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election was because Democrat voters simply lacked enthusiasm. Republicans need to go after Democrat seats with passion and optimism, though we must keep in mind that we can’t run liberty candidates in blue districts and win. Their positions will be easy to demagogue and will rally voters to the polls on election day. In fact, it wouldn’t be an entirely bad idea to run some Republicans as Independents in these districts and just not run a “republican” at all.
Instead of making these decisions about which party people support, make elections about issues like school choice, economic opportunity, crime, etc. We can win these arguments in blue districts if we can just get the debate. Whether we run Independents or Republicans is really beside the point. We need to be aggressive in blue districts, so long as there is even the slightest chance we can win. Make the Democrats spend money defending “safe” seats. Use the grassroots to rally around the most conservative candidates and take advantage of their energetic support.
This 2017 election is going to be a fight. Virginia voted for Hillary Clinton. If we want to make Virginia Red Again, we’re going to need everyone working together to get our candidates elected.
21 comments
What do you think are the implications of this year’s northern Virginia special election victories for the Delegate races? Marshall won 51-48% and Lingamfelter won 50-49% back in 2013. Whether their opponents are as good as what they faced back then is another question, but I’d say given the Democratic wave (as also evidenced by the high turnout in the Democratic primary), these could be tossups.
Good article. And we can be rest assured the black vote will be as strong in 2017 as it was in 2016, given the perception of Trump being a racist. Cucinelli was beaten in part because the black vote turnout in 2013 was just as high as it had been in 2012. So the idea that the black vote will fall off in a non-presidential off year is not accurate. A better long term strategy is offering the black electorate issues such as school choice that are in accordance with conservative ideals. Why Republicans do not go after the public school lobby with fervor is beyond me.
I think Democrats have a long road ahead of them.
I think the hardest part for Democrats is that many within their party actually dislike (even hate) most of the people in this country. It is very hard to see how they turn that around. It isn’t just a problem with strategy – how do you convince your party to start liking people again ? How do you convince people who already think they have the moral high ground on tolerance to become tolerant ? How do you convince people who think they stand for the little guy to actually start talking to the little guy ? I just don’t see how their leadership fixes that. Democrats don’t think there is a problem, they see these election losses as proof that they are right, not proof that they’ve done something wrong.
The Democratic party is really screwed up right now. Obama’s popularity masked a lot of the glaring problems that have been developing for quite a while.
It’s quite possible that Democrats win some elections, of course, Trump could be a terrible President, Republicans could over-reach and cause problems, anything could happen. But even if Democrats win some elections that won’t fix the real problems for their party, it’ll just be a bandaid, and until they figure out how to come to terms with the intolerance and hatred in their own party they’re going to continue to have problems in the future.
The Republican house majority in VA is the proverbial canary in the coal mine.
If it even goes blue again then its time to pack up and leave.
In regards to LeMunyon’s District (67th). In the Precincts that overlap which is all but two, Bennett edged Comstock by 81 votes and was under 50% with the write ins. In the two 11th District Precincts that overlap the 67th (Connolly did not have an opponent), the no vote against the meals tax carried overwhelmingly. Jim is not going to give his opponent a pass.
Steven, thank you for this post. It reminds us that we hold a 66 seat majority in the House because of the 11 members who fight each year to reverse the federal election trends in their district. Additionally, it isn’t just the number of seats that could be lost that is concerning, but who holds them. Most of those members are senior members inside of our caucus leadership, and their loss would remove decades of experience and relationships and some very strong and articulate voices defending our republican principles in the General Assembly.
The Trumpster (rhymes with Dumpster): Putting Americans back to work.
A month before he was elected president, Trump won approval to hire 64 foreign workers through the federal government’s H-2B visa program, according to newly released data
from the U.S. Labor Department. Last year, Trump hired 69 foreign workers at Mar-a-Lago.
I apologize from the outset for making an off-topic comment. However, it’s time for reality to pierce the Trump Veil of Lies and Bullshit.
FACT: 730 DOES NOT EQUAL 1,100.
Turns out, The Trumpster (rhymes with Dumpster) is lying.
We are learning more details of the “deal” offered by Donald Trump and Mike Pence to keep one company from moving some jobs out of the country —— and the real-world results continue to be Not What Was Claimed. Trump and Pence insisted 1,100 jobs were saved.
The workers themselves just got a letter saying “Well, not exactly — suckers!!”.
— quote
http://www.wthr.com/article/usw-730-union-jobs-saved-in-carrier-deal-not-1100
“We found out today that more jobs are leaving than what we originally thought,” Bray said. “It seemed like since Thursday, it was 1,100 then it was maybe 900 and then now we’re at 700. So I’m hoping it doesn’t go any lower than that.”
Union workers got a letter at the plant saying Trump’s deal with Carrier will save only 730 factory jobs in Indianapolis, plus 70 salaried positions – 553 jobs in the plant’s fan coil lines are still moving to Monterrey, Mexico.
All 700 workers at Carrier’s Huntington plant will also lose their jobs.
— end quote
Seven hundred and thirty factory jobs is not 1,100, but because initial news reports from outlets like the New York Times uncritically offered the Trump spin that first day most Americans will probably never learn the true numbers. And while 730 jobs isn’t nothing, it’s also a far lower figure than the number of American jobs created during any average day.
Job creation via press conference isn’t a sustainable policy.
On top of that, turns out the Boeing deal for a new AF-1 is NOT costing anywhere near $4 billion.
Why don’t you tell your buddies at Blue Virginia to un-ban me and open up the windows and let some fresh air into their stale arguments?
AS soon as you tell your colleagues at Red State and Free Republic to do the same for me.
Meanwhile, there’s this:
There are several things wrong with Trump’s attack on Boeing. First, he’s (once again) lying. Costs aren’t $4 billion. The planes aren’t even being built yet. What exists right now are contracts for $169 million to design the replacements, because the current planes reach the end of their expected 30 year lifespan next year. Even going according to schedule, the new planes won’t be ready for five years after that.
But why did Donald Trump suddenly take to Twitter to denounce Boeing for an “out of control” “$4 billion” contract for a replacement Air Force One? TPM notes that it quite possibly could be a tantrum-fueled attempt to damage the company after Trump read earlier in the morning that someone at Boeing criticized him.
A Google search (which is obviously an imperfect measure) suggests that the Tribune story was the only published mention of the [Boeing] speech in the last 24 hours prior to Trump’s tweet. It seems at least plausible that the Tribune story was the first or one of the first reports of the speech Trump or his team saw.
What appears to have happened is that earlier this morning, the Chicago Tribune published a story reporting that a Boeing executive had some skeptical things to say about Donald Trump.
We already know that Trump obsessively scans the news for critical mentions of himself. (We also know that he reacts to news he sees with immediate tweeted policy proposals, as when he Twitter-mused about stripping citizenship from Americans who might burn a flag as an apparent response to a Fox & Friends segment on flag burning that had aired just beforehand. The man is a child.)
In any event, a mere twenty minutes or so after the Tribune story about a Boeing executive criticizing him was published, Trump suddenly found a strong opinion over one particular Boeing contract, declared it “out of control,” and demanded it be canceled.
Come on old redneck, you know if anyone here was posting at Blue Virginia the way you are posting here they would get banned. I’m glad nobody has banned you here, though I do wish you’d debate with us instead of just spamming the place with talking points and nonsense. Debate is the foundation of Democracy.
I was going to say the same, but you beat me to it.
“Make Virginia Red Again.” A good slogan.
Generally speaking, we need to keep our collective foot on the gas and go after the Democrats and continue onwards with Republican victories.
However, the brain trust at Blue Virginia isn’t that competent. I’ll take Randy Minchew’s numbers. They say he is vulnerable because Clinton won his district by a hair with 50.5%. But Randy beat his last Democratic opponent by 20%, so Blue Virginia’s logic (here and elsewhere) is not valid. But that doesn’t mean they won’t try. Democrats ran the abysmal Liz Miller against Tag Greason twice and she lost twice. That doesn’t mean the mean Doorbell Queen won’t be back for another failed attempt to put an abortion on every street corner.
Again, we have Trump as the wild card. His 1st year accomplishments will likely weigh heavily on the outcomes.
PS For Lowell who will likely read this, banning me from your site was cowardly.
The biggest thing that will determine the relatively near term future are the markets. The markets have been unstable for years, reaching new highs, etc, and that debt bubble will implode at some point. We had a taste of it in 2008, but that isn’t anything like what’s coming. The futures of both the Democratic and Republican parties are at stake. It’s like a game of Jenga, you know that tower of blocks is going to fall down on somebodies watch, and the party is in power when that happens will be blamed for it and lose. I didn’t think we’d get through 8 years of Obama without it collapsing, so I don’t see how we can get through 4 or 8 years of Trump without it collapsing.
That crash won’t be the fault of any particular President because there’s very little they can do about it, but they and their party will be blamed.
A la Herbert Hoover.
Debt markets are an interesting topic. One does wonder how long the game of musical chairs will continue. Our solution thus far has been to move the debt to the unaudited Federal Reserve.
I’m not worried about one the nicest delegates in Richmond, Randy Minchew. Nor am I concerned about Bob Marshall, Jackson Miller or Scott Lingamfelter. But the first three on the list could have some problems if the Democrats ever find some decent candidates. Fortunately that remains unlikely.
If they can’t figure out a candidate to beat Barbara, we’all be picking up Delegate seats next election.
The Dem left have sacrificed their farm teams.
The simple fact of the matter is that a hefty percentage of Democratic core constituencies don’t give a hoot about state and local elections. Thank God.
Indeed, we are lucky there.
Democrats don’t have the real estate for it.
They go on about gerrymandering and everything but the simple fact is that they’ve retreated so far into the cities that they don’t have the real estate to win the House anymore. No matter how they parse the numbers, it just doesn’t add up. Better they learn to get what they want as the minority party and learn to deal with it, or, of course, come up with a more popular message that resonates with main street, which I don’t think Republicans need to worry about that happening.
Look at what that quote says, even if they won every single one of those races they’d still be short and wouldn’t control the legislature, and what are the chances of them even coming close to winning those races ?
They have in their mind that just because Clinton carried a district somehow that translates into people voting for local Democrats for the legislature. But until they can figure out how Bob Marshall has been re-elected 11 times they’re never going to figure out why they can’t win these districts.
No reason to extend a helping hand here, just let them keep thinking its all because of racism, xenophobia, or whatever nonsense they reason it out to be.
And THAT is what makes us Virginia.