Disclaimer: My legendary, world renowned and highly coveted political predictions – at 96 percent since 2012–are based on the following not so scientific criteria: total hearsay, unconfirmed rumors, conspiracy theories, pure innuendo, personal insight, Trump White House leakers, DPV moles, RINO’s, Bernie Sanders’ supporters, my high-voltage tin foil hat wired directly into the mother ship (aluminum comes from Chi-Coms), William at the dry cleaners, Wayne from the Virginia Zoo, my postman, my random radio show callers, pure instinct…and my secret sauce.
It all adds up to a nearly flawless track record! I’m right a whopping 96 percent of the time.
Finally, my predictions do not necessarily reflect my endorsements or my preference as a voter. It’s just my cold analysis.
Governor
Democrats: Ralph Northam over Tom Perriello
Leave no doubt: former Congressman Tom Perriello has run a great race and put the fear of political Gods into the sleepy and scaredy-cat Ralph Northam campaign.
From his surprise Christmas announcement to his opposition to pipelines and his mocking of Virginia’s Democrat establishment, he put Northam on defense early. Northam has had to respond to Perriello by pandering in the worst way, including calling POTUS a “narcissistic maniac” in a recent television ad.
Perriello had 16,000 Facebook live viewers in a campaign talk from headquarters Sunday night. Perriello should win this race.
But he won’t.
The Washington Post’s full-throated endorsement of Northam carries significant sway with undecided Democratic voters in Northern Virginia, and is, in my view, a game changer. Northam wins.
Perriello will be back. He is formidable.
Republicans: Ed Gillespie over Frank Wagner and Corey Stewart
Wow. What a difference a second statewide campaign in three years makes.
Ed Gillespie and his campaign manager, Chris Leavitt, have run a textbook flawless campaign. In sports terms, they’ve played mistake free ball. In so doing, their team has run up the score. This is a blowout. Gillespie should eclipse 60 percent in the three-person field. After losing two squeakers in four years (Obenshain ’13 and Gillespie ’14), Tuesday night is Chris Leavitt’s moment. He’s earned it.
Gillespie has put a huge and impressive Election Day ground game in place to buttress his significant airwaves financial advantage in the closing weeks.
State Sen. Frank Wagner has run one of the most principled primary campaigns in recent memory. He spoke his mind, he pandered to no one and he’s advanced some great ideas in this cycle, including his call for high school technical training standards for achievement. He’s passionately defended Dominion energy and the 2015 rate deal he brokered as Energy and Commerce Chairman.
Frank has come on my radio show every time we have asked, has taken calls from listeners and has been personally accessible on the campaign trail.
He deserves a better fate on Election Night. Although he’s closing, he won’t get one.
Fatigued after a bruising state senate re-election campaign in 2015, Wagner started too late in the cycle, never raised enough money to compete effectively with Gillespie and never put together a ground operation.
We look forward to working with Frank in the 2018 General Assembly.
Corey Stewart’s last television ad attacking Gillespie with the frontrunner’s head bobbing and eyes crossing was very clever – and very funny. I laughed the few times I saw it.
Stewart never put together the broad coalition he needed to compete, many Trump voters have abandoned him for various reasons and his obsession with civil war era statues is too narrow a platform to win a Virginia primary.
As the next coming of Jeff Davis, his campaign message never broadened.
General Election
Regardless of past Virginia voting trends, Gillespie has a shot in November. Here’s why:
The Democrats say their base is on fire, and they will turn out in November. No doubt.
But the untold story: so are Trump voters. They will turn out in huge numbers, too.
As bad as Virginia was for Trump in 2016, consider this: Hillary Clinton and Green Party candidate Jill Stein garnered 1,969,473 votes in the 2016 Virginia general election.
Donald Trump, plus Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Independent conservative Evan McMullin received 1,941,771 votes. That’s a 27,638-vote difference out of 3,911,244 votes cast, or a less than one percent differential.
Northam’s bizarre denunciation of President Trump in television ads may have saved his primary bacon, but it will arouse the wrath of Trump voters in November.
We’re not stupid, Ralph.
Lt. Governor
Democrats: Justin Fairfax over Susan Platt and Gene Rossi
Justin Fairfax, after losing a barnburner primary race to Att. General Mark Herring in 2013, has never stopped running. He’s logged tens of thousands of miles crisscrossing the Commonwealth and has had in-depth voter contact. He appears to have at least a competitive GOTV ground game, and he’s ID’d the most voters of any of the three candidates. His resume is impressive and he’s already run a statewide race. This is a tough race, but Fairfax should prevail by holding his own in NOVA and blowing out the field in southeast Virginia where he runs particularly well for some reason.
Susan Platt made the centerpiece of her campaign the impeachment of President Trump. What on earth does that have to do with running for Lt. Governor of Virginia? Nothing.
So it’s either a stunt or a desperate campaign Hail Mary? Neither option bodes well. Her first name gets her second place.
Gene Rossi says he’s the comeback kid. He says call him “Seabiscuit,” the famous racehorse who came furiously off the pace to gain Thoroughbred fame and lore.
Rossi has a run a spirited, upbeat and energetic campaign. In a time of political negativity and seemingly around the clock hate, he’s made politics fun again. He’s an inspiring candidate with the right experience for the job. The surprise of the night will be how well he does on primary day. My message to Gene: please don’t quit, stay involved, run again. You have taught us all something during this campaign: Make Politics Fun Again. Good luck, Gene Rossi.
Republicans: Jill Vogel over Bryce Reeves and Glenn Davis
What a nasty campaign this has devolved into. One would have thought going in that this would be an inspiring race, with three very qualified – and different candidates.
Instead – save Glenn Davis – it’s a mud bath.
The last mailer by Sen. Reeves attacking Sen. Vogel for voting for a qualified gay judge in Virginia because of his sexual orientation was really beyond the pale. Are we still at this place in Virginia? Do Republican primary voters really respond to this?
Everyone knows I am a pro gay-rights, pro gay marriage Republican – and have been fighting this battle for 30 years in my Party—so am I looking at this through rose-colored glasses? I guess we shall see.
That being said, Vogel is going to win this race based on her financial advantage, her late advertising campaign on television and her personality. The woman is tough not to like.
Her campaign team, led by up and comer campaign manager Pat Trueman, has been stellar. Trueman learned a lot from is former boss, Rob Bell. It has shown in this race.
Glenn Davis has run a great race – short on resources and long on ideas. He attempted to brand himself early as the jobs candidate – and it stuck. Driving around Virginia in his RV, dubbed “Mellow Yellow,” Glenn, his wife Chelle and his energetic staff have really made a name for themselves. More money would have given him a real shot on Tuesday.
He’ll be back.
Like Stewart’s, I never got the Reeves campaign. They got off message early on with this email fiasco and never really recovered. Reeves has more resources than Davis which gets him second place.
But one candidate made a future while the other dug a grave.
Selected House of Delegate Races
District 72 – Jimmie Massie Not Seeking Re-election: Eddie Whitlock over Ernesto Sampson
Ernesto Sampson is a formidable candidate. Eddie Whitlock is a beast. Landslide Whitlock.
District 56 – Peter Farrell Not Seeking Re-election:
Party in the 56th! Six Republican candidates are vying to replace Peter Farrell in this GOP district. Five are viable.
- Matt Pinsker. Like the energizer bunny, Pinsker just keeps going and going and going…right to primary day. He kind of grows on voters. His consultant, Aaron Gulbransen has done a nice job in this large field in separating out his candidate. He’s done enough of just everything to win. But his down home, gee whiz Boy Scout humble personality is the factor you can’t quite quantify. It’s there and in a crowded field, it’s enough to notch the win. Plus Ron Hedlund backs him. Need we say more?
- John McGuire. Should win. Won’t. Never closed the deal with voters. All show, not much legislative go.
- George Goodwin. What’s not to love? He’s the most qualified of all the candidates. All of us Richmond general assembly insiders love George, who now serves as Sen. Mark Peake’s legislative aide, after having the same role for then Sen. Tom Garrett. George is very popular with his friends and colleagues. We are all rooting for George! But not enough of us vote in D-56.
- Graven Craig. What Trump voter will ever forget the Harrisonburg Heist?
- Dhaker. He’s a great dentist!
District 64 – Rob Morris Not Seeking Re-Election: UPSET ALERT!
Upstart Emily Brewer; a millennial wins in an election night stunner, upsetting heavy favorite Rex Alphin, an Isle of Wight supervisor.
Brewer – outspent by about 10:1, has outworked Alphin in the district and has the enthusiasm necessary on primary day to pull this off.
On paper, Alphin, with the endorsement of fellow farmer and powerful Delegate Barry Knight (R-Chesapeake) should easily win this race. But paper doesn’t win primaries. Voters do. Alphin generates very little enthusiasm.
District 28 – Speaker Bill Howell Not Seeking Re-Election:
This is easy. Cecelia Howell endorsed Bob Thomas to succeed her husband. Do you have any idea of the influence that Cessie has in that district? That’s all I really need to know.
Paul Milde has the lead – which he keeps until Cessie’s network drops from heaven and shows up on Tuesday.
Susan Stimpson? Had she waited – and not tried to knock off the Speaker in 2015, she would have won this race. Hindsight is 20-20. Thomas wins.
District 21 – Incumbent Ron Villanueva over Bill Haley
Bill Haley has become of the Harold Stassen of Chesapeake politics. Oh wait, Harold Stassen actually won a race. Villanueva, who serves as the House of Delegates Chairman of Transportation, wins 65-35 percent.
49 comments
I am the biggest Trump supporter even pre-Fredericks.
I just don’t throw my vote around to the first R or any R these days.
The 9/11 Commission report talks of the lack of interdepartmental communication (CIA don’t Talk to FBI).
Now to Retired Navy Officer/ Republican State Senator Bill DeSteph also the Tidewater Builders Association Director brought forth bill SB483, This bill would have made it illegal for Va. Agencies and various State Depts to have “interdepartmental communication “( government working, duh).
This bill was ignorant to Executive Order 24 (created out of JLARC 427 ).
When a political party doesn’t purge itself from the self serving at the water hole of illegal employment , labor exploitation , tax fraud and Santurary are they representative ?
Of who?
I will cast 1 for Stewart, down the line will be other R’s with pride.
If Stewart doesn’t get the nod looks like the Gubernatorial ticket in Nov will
be for the one not that claims to broaden the base but looks to collect from the illegal employment, thus actually broadening the base with ending illegal employment/organized crime.
Raymond did not have to be killed John, the killers knew to come here to Lynchburg , even the ones that were arrested weeks earlier at the Extended Stay fleeing the MD stabbing.
It is disgusting to look at the complicit on ballots.
You will find real Virginians on the New River Trail not on the ballot.
Color me surprised…the guy who took in tons of ad money from Vogel decides to predict a Vogel victory. Here’s my shocked face :O
So let me get this right … ya’ll say that Stewart raised taxes in PWC, and Frank voted for the biggest tax increase in Virginia history, and Gillespie helped create TARP, right ?
So my question is … why should I get up and vote tomorrow, or in November ? I mean what’s the F’in point …
Voting: Wagner/Davis
Predicting: Gillespie/Vogel
It’s the “Virgina Way”
I made myself sit down and watch these candidates speak, and here are my impressions …
Gillespie, seems like someone who has been in politics for a long time, obviously knows what he’s talking about, and seems very used to speaking to people and getting things done. Like him, but won’t vote for him because TARP. Nobody who could bring such a thing into existence could appeal to me.
Stewart, seems like a new candidate, I mean, seems to just be getting into politics. Don’t know anything about him, but I don’t think he can win against the Democratic nominee (see below).
Frank, this is who I am going to vote for. He’s talking my language, straight forward solutions guy. Like.
Northam, no.
Perriello, really wants his parties nomination, and I think he’ll win it. Doesn’t seem to be pandering, and if it weren’t for his policy positions I’d wish he was running as a Republican.
I’d like to see Frank vs. Perriello. I think Perriello would win that argument in Virginia because so many Democrats would vote “D” without even listening to what the candidates have to say, but I’d still like to see it, because I think they’re the best two candidates.
.. and Davis for Lt. Gov, because Vogel and Reeves will be too busy slashing each others tires to be Lt Gov …
Trump voters will take November off. You will be lucky to see them tomorrow.
This Trump supporter will not take November off.
I will be voting for the Gubernatorial Candidate that understands EO24 and JLARC 427.
So who really knows Virginia?
Hey MR. R , out there; How can you create a job when you do not enforce the laws that protect them?
Hey MR. D, out there why mandate a wage increase and do nothing about employee misclassification or unlicensed contracting?
The Candidates talk of jobs………
………….. and that is all , never to deliver.
Did Trump already lie?
“There all going home”
“The DACA children are near and dear to my heart”
Where is the wall?
I agree with most except 2 : I think Pierello really has a shot and it will be within 2 pts; and Susan Stimpson has enormous grassroots support – so regardless of Cecilia and her pull, I think Susan wins
I hope you are right about Perriello. I’d love to get that one wrong!
I don’t understand, you said below in reply to Sweep762 that Perriello will win in November if he wins the nomination. When you say you hope Dylan is right here that Perriello might win, are you saying you want Perriello to be Governor?
To bring up the flyer by reeves but not talk about jill bringing false accusations on bryce for have an affair is totally unfair both have run negative and bad campaigns
The Vogel email is alleged, but the whole episode reaks.
What part of “alleged” is Alex Vogel’s phone being tied to the email account and the IP address the emails were sent from being the exact same as Jill’s house? I wasn’t aware that subpoena results count as mere speculation…
I suppose it’s also “alleged” that the theory of gravity is true, right?
Christian, your candidate has run a garbage race with no message other than demanding an opponents phone. That message didn’t work so now he is gay bashing.
The 90’s called, they want their candidate back.
Very insightful and clearly stated discussion. Thanks.
You conveniently left off Susan Platt’s main agenda of having compiled a list of over 200 Confederate monuments, schools, or street names in the state that she would ask to be “purged”. Whether or not that would happen after all the dust has settled, you critics who think Corey Stewart is “out-to-lunch” by focusing on Civil War related heritage sites and taking a stand to preserve them are the ones who need to reevaluate.
The fact that there is a Democrat candidate running for Lt. Gov. IN VIRGINIA who publicly advocates such as position should give one cause for concern. What will it be next? If Susan were to win, there would be major battles over this, and some of you establishment Republicans are not going to be happy that our state gets featured in international news headlines as re-fighting a war that ended over a century and a half ago. Guarantee, you will be screaming “PR Nightmare”.
I totally agree that Susan Platt is running a complete non-sense campaign. Luckily, I don’t think she’ll win tonight.
To attack the Reeves campaign for attacking Vogel for voting for a Gay judge, with all the other things going on in this race, is unfair. Many Republicans have not embraced gay marriage, and I believe it is not part of the party platform. Many of us stand with our convictions. At the time, there were many activist Gay judges across the country, while professionally qualified, who were pushing their own microcosm view at the bench, and there is nothing unfair about Bryce Reeves bringing this up as he would any other issue of an opponent in a political campaign.
Good point. I didn’t attack Reeves. I believe the mailer will backfire but we’ll see, right? Tomorrow will come soon enough.
Gillespie will lose to Perriello, guaranteed
Virginia is doomed to Communist Nazism for sure!
Well, that is what is bad about this, because Ed’s whole campaign is based on the fact that he is at least a Republican, establishment or not, and I fear his lack of participation in debates and 3-way local panels in the primary does not bode well for what he will do as the nominee. He will basically sit back and smile and just let his surrogates deal with any controversial issues, for fear of offending. Sometimes I really do not think he gets this state. He is a beltway lobbyist who just happened to land in Virginia. He head is still in NJ.
Perriello will win in November if he wins the nomination. You are spot on.
I predict John Adams for AG.
I would be very happy if Adams wins over Herring in November.
Very good analysis, backed by solid sources, nice work.
Great post John. I think you will again have 96% accuracy!
News of the day,
http://wset.com/news/local/congressman-bob-goodlatte-has-speeding-ticket-amended
Was Bob Goodlatte speeding to pick up a PAC or campaign cash donation from the power company?
If not, then what? “People” go to jail for this. But, apparently Congressmen do not.
Look now for some economic money to rain down on that county. Of course it will have nothing to do with the ticket……..And, you can betcha by golly, it will be well concealed.
It’s all crooked.
Speeding through a school zone.
Off to pick up a PAC Check or off to defend illegal immigration then on to an immigration guest worker Lobbyist fund raiser?
Some Republicans are just in office because of the weakness of the DPV outside the beltway not of merits.
He got off with a fine .
A “bogus” speedometer.
To bad he won’t defend his District from illegal immigration a quickly.
I agree with Mr. Fredericks…Gillespie and Vogel will win on the GOP side, and Northam and Fairfax will win the Democratic primary.
One area of disagreement is in the general election for governor. Yes, there are Virginians who voted for Gary Johnson and Even McMullin. However, it is unlikely that these voters will support Gillespie, especially given that there will almost certainly be a Libertarian candidate on the ballot in November.
Those who voted for McMullin will likely be supporting Ed. I can name you a few Never Trumpers who voted for Johnson, who will be supporting Ed. Mostly establishment Republicans.
I’m sure there are some that will be supporting Gillespie. However, there are also some Stewart supporters who have pledged not to support Gillespie too.
95% of them will end up supporting whoever the nominee is. If for example, Corey wins tomorrow, for all the talk from Gillespie supporters about hating on Corey, they’ll all get over it after a matter of days or maybe a couple weeks. Only people who won’t get over it are those whose head is so far up their own (__|__) that they’d really prefer a Democrat gets elected. And quite frankly, those people usually cause more trouble than they’re worth.
“supporting whoever the nominee is …”
I used to do that. Since 2008 I only vote for conservatives that I think will cut taxes, adhere to the Constitution and limited government, etc. That doesn’t include people who created TARP.
So since Corey Stewart has raised personal property taxes to an ungodly amount (among the highest in Va), and has reigned over a 21-25% increase in real estate taxes at the same time………….. (this reply should be good)
Not to mention that of the 5 governor candidates running, Corey is the only one who has actually presided over a white washing of history, proud that Mills Godwin school in PW changed it’s name because Godwin may have supported segregation previously.
(Can’t wait to hear this one explained away)
If you have proof, some link to reputable information, etc, that shows that Stewart raised taxes more than he lowered them, then you win, I wouldn’t vote for him either.
I wonder if you do, however, since you were willing to add all that identity politics nonsense to your post … you usually can’t take anything a person says seriously when they trade in that coin …
Taxes go up every year in PWC. They’ve even surpassed Loudoun!
The whole Republican Party raised taxes more in 2013 than anytime in history, with their HB 2313. Where was you then?
You ain’t got nothing on Corey Stewart. How much does Gillespie pay his mudslingers?
Yes, sticking to your principles and voting for a person over blindly following a party is such a terrible thing. Picking the lesser of two evils is far more desirable.
I agree if Corey wins mainstream Republicans will get over it but I don’t think they will show anything close to the amount of enthusiasm they will show for Ed. Corey has made such an embarrassing spectacle of himself, it will be difficult to support him with any enthusiasm. He’ll lose in a landslide in November, 68% to 30%, with the rest voting for third and fourth party candidates.
I’ll vote for Corey and will donate – and will make sure that Corey does well in Shenandoah County, where he will have support. Problem is that Corey would get killed in the General in NOVA. And these rocket scientists can’t seem to figure that one out. Or won’t.
Like Ed “Bush 43′” Gillespie and Frank “Dominion” Wagner are not an embarrassment to Virginia?
Ed Gillespie was riding shotgun when Bush 43′ drove this country into a ditch. A ditch so deep that a terrorized, desperate country, got a tow truck named Obama to pull the country out. And, that is really the reason why we have Obamacare, because of Ed “Bush 43′” Gillespie.
Frank Wagner tag teamed the little guy when he signed on to the largest tax increase in Virginia history, HB 2313, and was the power company chief patron on SB 1349. SB 1349 will cost Virginia jobs and take BILLIONS out of everybody’s pocket.
And you want to talk about Corey Stewart? You gotta be kidding???
I think you mean Ralph “Bush 43 x 2” Northam.
On the contrary, Corey’s people, which may be fewer in number, are really into Corey and admire his hard stands and that he is not politics as usual. He has made his mark as a stalwart against illegal alien
I do not want monuments and statues torn down and neither does Ed Gillespie.
Cliff Hyra is the Libertarian nominee.
http://cliffhyra.com/
And while he’ll probably be on the ballot, its far from a certainty. Even by LP standards, the VA LP is especially unmotivated and unorganized. Their last candidate for the 10th congressional district was write-in only because they were unable to get him on the ballot.