They need to raise the tone and level of the conversation in their race, and they need to do it now. I am heartened to see that one or more of them has already started to do that. (Shaun’s post is here).
But I felt the need to clear up a number of things about EW Jackson’s 2013 LG run.
I should know- I was on the inside as EW’s fundraiser for that run.
- EW was not a drag on the ticket- he brought something to the table.
The central premise that EW was to blame for our losses in 2013 is a false one, and one spread by establishment-leaning opponents of conventions, largely. The problem is, the facts don’t bear it out.
EW got 44.52% of the vote, compared to 45.22% for Ken, who lost by a mere 2.5% to Governor McAwful. Did EW really drag Ken down? Doubtful.
To believe that argument, you’d also have to ignore the 24 localities where EW outperformed the rest of the ticket. The fact was, our base was not revved up that year (I’ll get into that in a moment), and EW was the one speaking to them. We heard this all the time on the trail; how meeting EW was the only reason some folks were coming out to vote. Folks were volunteering for EW specifically, and the campaign had a massive ground game. You may or may not have agreed with EW, but he helped Ken and Mark.
- External factors played a much larger role in hurting our ticket.
EW was tied in the polls with Northam in mid-September. Then, the Federal shutdown happened. After that, the Federal workers were looking to take their anger out on any Republican they could find. In 2 weeks, we were down 11. Similar tales were told for Ken and Mark. We then rebounded once the Shutdown ended and the problems with Obamacare became the story. All 3 campaigns just ran out of time; another 2 weeks and we all might have won.
Another issue we faced was the McDonnell corruption charges. We could not use the sitting Republican governor for support or fundraising because he was tainted by those charges, which dragged thru the whole campaign. This hurt us in a lot of ways, because the GOP brand in Virginia was tainted (and still is).
The massive tranny tax hikes earlier that Republicans in Richmond gave us that year hurt us substantially also. They did not gain us a single vote in Northern VA, and lost us tons of votes downstate. Politically stupid, and awful policy, people complained that promises were broken and principles were violated- and they were right.
- EW’s campaign could have done some things better, but it was not bad overall.
No one is perfect. I will volunteer I could have done some things better as EW’s fundraiser. Everyone on the campaign made mistakes, because that’s what happens on campaigns (I’m on my 3rd statewide campaign at the moment). But EW raised $1.5 million with close to zero help from the RSLC (headed by Ed Gillespie) or other establishment donors. For those of you wondering, $1.5 million raised was the average of the last 5 Republican LG candidates.
We made up for that loss by setting a record for number of total donors to an LG candidacy in Virginia. The grassroots came to EW’s rescue and really carried the campaign. Massive volunteer support and a very savvy digital presence made up for TV advertising, and thus the campaign was viable. We showed, in other words, how to be competitive with a grassroots candidate. Was it perfect? No, because we were writing the book as we went. But it wound up being a hell of a read.
- Division within our own ticket was a large issue.
This year, look at the Democrats’ yardsigns. All 3 candidates, on the same sign, same color and logo. They play to win. The Republicans? 3 different logos, and one of the campaigns wouldn’t even give out those signs. That goes for Federal elections too.
The Dems figured out that they will win or lose AS A TEAM. Republicans in Virginia, in general, still haven’t figured that out, and until we do, we will lose, and lose with total abandon. Time to ditch the selfish, consultant-driven behavior and act as a team, pool resources and play to win.
- The top of the ticket always rules the roost.
No matter what anyone says, the LG candidate (or AG candidate too) has ZERO to do with how the ticket does. The governor candidate always takes the lead, and justly so. Ken Cuccinelli and Mark Obenshain are good, solid men of principle. They, and EW, deserved our support.
However, the whole ticket was abandoned in 2013 by milktoast establishment access donors, including the DC Republican establishment, many of whom wound up supporting Terry McAwful rather than support a man of principle. Those corrupt access donors produced a bad environment we could not overcome. And nominating a milktoast establishment liberal or a corrupt career politician in 2017 will wind up with the same disjointed bad environment this year.
- Scapegoating does not help us.
The circular firing squad of Republicans after 2013 was disappointing. No one likes to lose. But pretending those losses were anything but a confluence of factors is a mistake. We are Republicans. We are supposed to be the party of personal responsibility.
So instead of pointing fingers, people need to take responsibility for their own part in those losses. The finger pointing by establishment figures who did not donate, did not knock doors, did not make phone calls, and actively worked against our ticket rings hallow. Take some personal responsibility guys.
/rant, as edited 1/26/2017
16 comments
That was a tough year for many reasons stated but we still could have pulled it out had we simply stuck together. “We must hang together, or surely we will hang apart.” The AG race should have been ours and perhaps it was if you eliminate the voter fraud (ooops! look we found a bunch of ballots in heavily democratic Fairfax during the recount).
The grammarian in me must point out that it is “milquetoast.”
I appreciate your post and your insight into the operation, but I challenge some of your assertions and facts, respectfully.
“EW was not a drag on the ticket- he brought something to the table.”
You can be both a drag on the ticket and someone who brought something to the table. That is possible and happens all the time in politics.
“EW got 44.52% of the vote, compared to 45.22% for Ken, who lost by a mere 2.5% to Governor McAwful. Did EW really drag Ken down? Doubtful.”
Well, Percents are funny things. Used in vacuum, I can see this argument, but let us talk about the real numbers that matter, the margins. Bishop Jackson lost by 232,898 votes and KC lost by 56,430. But you certainly already knew this and opted to not include this.
“24 localities where EW outperformed the rest of the ticket”
This is fun to think about, but statewide elections aren’t voted on by who wins the most counties in a mini electoral college system. It’s by the popular vote statewide. You can find countless places around the country where folks win statewide AND lose a majority or sometimes even 2/3 of the counties.
“But EW raised $1.5 million with close to zero help from the RSLC (headed by Ed Gillespie) or other establishment donors. For those of you wondering, $1.5 million raised was the average of the last 5 Republican LG candidates.”
This is irrelevant, elections are about overcoming challenges not pointing fingers. The reason that folks say those “establishment” donors were not there are nearly all self inflicted wounds. Good campaigns die of self inflicted wounds often.
Also, it doesn’t matter about the average of any other race. It only matters how much money is needed to win the race you are in.
“We made up for that loss by setting a record for number of total donors to an LG candidacy in Virginia. The grassroots came to EW’s rescue and really carried the campaign.”
No, if this was true, he wouldn’t have lost be 200K votes.
“Massive volunteer support and a very savvy digital presence made up for TV advertising, and thus the campaign was viable.”
This is just a myth people use. You don’t lose by 10% and argue that volunteers beat TV dollars.
“We showed, in other words, how to be competitive with a grassroots candidate. Was it perfect? No, because we were writing the book as we went. But it wound up being a hell of a read.”
Every campaign is writing the book or assembling the plane in flight, thats how these things work. Nobody is asking for perfect, just asking for accountability and self reflection.
“No matter what anyone says, the LG candidate (or AG candidate too) has ZERO to do with how the ticket does.”
There is no evidence of this in VA or nationwide to say in absolutes that it has zero to do with how the ticket does. In close elections every vote matters. Every candidate brings and detracts things from the table. Period. Races can be won by a million votes or 10 votes so its absurd to say it has zero or else the vote totals of every R on the ticket would be within a thousand votes of each other.
“Scapegoating does not help us.”
Your entire post was scapegoating and finger pointing. When you point at someone three fingers point back at you.
You are correct we are supposed to be the party of personal responsibility, so lets own the fact of what happened and learn from it has a party.
At first I just thought you were too close to the sun on this issue, but then I found this post and I really like it, so…
I would like to point you back to the other post you authored: http://thebullelephant.com/lessons-to-learn/
And just pose the following questions…
If you believe “Candidates matter” do you believe that Bishop Jackson was the best of the 7 LG candidates to win a general election?
If you believe “money matters” do you believe that Bishop Jackson was the best of the 7 LG candidates to have the resources to win a general election?
If you believe “Outside money matters too” do you believe that Bishop Jackson was the best of the 7 LG candidates to have the resources to win a general election from an outside perspective?
If you believe “Talent matters” do you believe that Bishop Jackson was the best talent of the 7 LG candidates to have the resources to win a general election?
If you believe “Message matters. ” do you believe that Bishop Jackson…well I’m not going to go there, we all know the answer for this one.
Somehow we have to win statewide races in order to gain some organization. We have basically no elder statesmen to lead this party now. Bob McDonnell is still damaged from what happened, George Allen never recovered from the “macaca” incident, and John Warner is basically a Democrat now.
Whoever we nominate for Governor need to win in November, and follow Scott Walker’s lead in Wisconsin to stand up to protestors and turn his bluish-purple state more red.
Steve, I respectfully disagree with the reasons EW Jackson lost. EW stuck his foot in his mouth starting with his statement that if you did not follow Jesus Christ you are following a false religion.
Alienating a segment of the population that votes Republican is a indication of a lack of experience in campaigning.
I witnessed on more than one occasion the lack of experience of EW’s own campaign workers he surrounded himself with. The press was on top of EW at public events which should have never happened. Reporters have no business standing right next to a political candidate at a podium.
Ideologues lose elections!
Oh? Name for me the last milktoast moderate to win a statewide election here?
I think the 2013 “historic” tax increase pushed forward by Speaker Howell and Gov. McDonnell was the main culprit in that election. Sadly, I also think the color of EW’s skin had a lot to do with his lower vote total. While knocking on the doors of supposed republican leaning individuals in the last weeks of the campaign, I could see a change in their demeanor when they took the campaign flyer and actually paid attention to the pictures of our candidates. Most didn’t know the names of who the candidates were at that point, let alone their skin color. Granted, being an unashamed Christian probably affected EW’s vote total, too
http://www.atr.org/virginia-governor-bob-mcdonnell-signs-largest-a7615
If President Trump continues to follow through on his campaign promises, I truly don’t think it will matter who actually wins our nominations. As long as they are breathing, I believe they will be able to ride the Trump wave to victory! Unless they are one of them #nevertrump idiots, of course.
We were divided, and we were conquered. I remember. We tried mightily to get RPV to help us get “unified” signs for the Republican ticket. Probably in deference to the individual campaigns, they wouldn’t even return our calls. I understood the difficult position they were in. Undaunted, we produced our own three-candidate highway signs for a consortium of five counties.
Thank you and well said.
let’s be honest. Cuccinelli lost. & took down the whole ticket. Right wing extremists can’t get elected in Virginia.
Let’s be honest, Cuccinelli is a not a right wing extremist which is why he came so close to winning despite the government shut down, McDonnell’s tax hikes, and all the other things Mr. Thomas has outlined in his post.
& he showed his anger at the RNC convention in Cleveland.
Yes! I loved that! Go Ken!
Ken’s performance at the convention signaled his political spiral downward. Ken is a extremist who stepped on so many fellow Republicans backs in Fairfax that he was shut out for that reason.
Thank God he is focusing his energy on oyster farming.
You mean no job under President Trump ??? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/db1e38c9a54c350103461bf594351bb06f3ad2d8fd68f2b4c5834b1d6979f46a.jpg
Much more than that — nothing like going out on a high note… and that was nothing like it.
Given his record, I could make a better case that McAwful has been a left wing extremist, much more than Ken ever was a right wing one