Guest Contributor Richard Saunders

This is the first in a three-part series covering the most hotly contested House of Delegates races across the Commonwealth of Virginia. This first installment covers Northern Virginia, home to the greatest number of competitive races this year. HD10 - Leans Republican The seat which perhaps most closely resembles Virginia's 10th Congressional District has had a rather sleepy history since redistricting in 2011 drove the district from the North Carolina border to being centered in Loudoun County. Republican Delegate Randy Minchew easily won re-election in 2015, dispatching Democratic challenger Peter Rush 62-38 while only losing three precincts in the entire district. During Virginia's last gubernatorial election in 2013, Minchew had a similar performance, crushing Democrat Monte Johnson by a 57-43 margin. Minchew's strength can largely be attributed to his strong crossover appeal. In an era of increasingly polarized down-ballot voting, Minchew has for many cycles over-preformed his fellow Republicans in the district by very respectable margins. Take the last gubernatorial election in 2013 for example. It voted for Mark Obenshain for Attorney General by less than 1%, Northam for Lieutenant Governor by 2%, and Cuccinelli for Governor by 3%. Meanwhile, Minchew was re-elected by whopping 17% margin. Clearly he's been doing something right. However, Minchew has a much tougher race on his hands this year. His challenger, Wendy Gooditis, is running a very competent campaign. Gooditis has outraised Minchew and has a larger volunteer base than the Republican incumbent. With deep connections with local Democrats, Gooditis is very likely to minimize the number of split ticket voters for Minchew, which is essential for any Democrat to flip this district. Looking at the overall state of the race, two powerful forces in Virginia politics are facing off against each other in this district. Minchew's incumbency and the 10th district's history of electing Republicans are running up against Gooditis' fundraising and volunteer advantage. At this point I still favor Minchew to win re-election, though by a margin of 5% or less. HD87 - Leans Democrat The 87th district is the best pickup opportunity for Republicans this year. Democratic Incumbent John J. Bell is facing off against Republican challenger Subba Kolla. Bell was first elected by a plurality in 2015, and has since struggled to pass a single bill during his tenure in the House of Delegates, an issue the Kolla campaign has worked to highlight as much as possible. Bell however is not as weak an incumbent as one may assume however. He's raised over $430,000 this cycle, and had over $130,000 in the bank at the beginning of September. Kolla, who read Virginia's delegate count at the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, has the connections and support among Republican circles to turn out moderate and low-propensity GOP voters in a race where their participation could certainly make the difference. He's also been able to match Bell's fundraising numbers and had almost $200,000 in the bank as of September 1, suggesting he may outspend Bell in the final stretch before election day. Being able to match your opponent's fundraising numbers is certainly the first sign of being able to flip a seat, though there are many other hurdles Kolla must first surpass. Foremost of these is the fact that the 87th district last year went to Hillary Clinton by a stunning 25-point margin. Clinton carried every precinct in the district except two, and after Bell's success in 2015 - despite a turnout of less than 30% - suggests the Democratic strength in this district may be a bridge too far for the Kolla campaign. Nevertheless, I expect this race to be decided by a margin similar to 2015, with a margin of less than 7%. While I would not be surprised should Kolla pull out the win, it appears Bell is on track to return to the statehouse next January. HD13 - Likely Democrat Republican incumbent Bob Marshall has been regularly used for years on Virginia House Democratic fundraising emails for his controversial remarks, though after November their favorite fundraising tool may no longer be available. Democratic challenger Danica Roem is perhaps the best-known challenger of any incumbent in Virginia this year, and it's not hard to see why. Roem is running to be the first transgender woman to be elected to any statehouse in the country, and has seen campaign money flood in from out of state donors eager to knock off Marshall, who is known far and wide for his history of controversial, and sometimes inflammatory remarks. During last session for example, Marshall introduce legislation similar to North Carolina's (in)famous "bathroom bill", which died in subcommittee almost immediately without a recorded vote. For Democrats, Marshall's defeat at the hands of a transgender candidate would be poetic justice of the kind which only presents itself on rare occasions. Democrats in this district have not just run on LGBT issues however. Far from it, the Roem campaign has made transportation issues the centerpiece of the race. While this may not be as exciting an issue to state or national observers, the "Fix Rt. 28!" campaign does seem to be resonating. Another strength Democrats have in this race is the partisan lean of the 13th district. The Manassass Park portion of the district, combined with the immediate surrounding precincts in Prince William County, are overwhelmingly Democratic. Their effect on the district as a whole have been pronounced. Clinton won this district by 14 points in 2016, and McAuliffe edged out Cuccinelli here in 2013. Roem's massive cash advantage, army of volunteers, the district's partisan lean, and Marshall high negatives among Democrats all point to this seat being a Democratic pickup on election night. As such, I rate it Likely Democrat. Should Marshall manage to hold on, expect a good night for the RPV. HD40 - Likely Republican The 40th district is the most Republican-leaning district in Fairfax County, which is certainly saying something considering Hillary Clinton carried the district by 8 points in 2016. Nevertheless, Republican incumbent Tim Hugo is well-positioned to win re-election this year. Hugo has raised a stunning amount of money, and knocking off the House Republican Caucus Chair will be no small feat for Democratic challenger Donte Tanner. Tanner's campaign has certainly raised a respectable amount of money thus far, but compared to the nearly $600,000 Hugo has amassed for this legislative cycle, Tanner is going to finish this election cycle outraised and outspent, a rarity for Northern Virginia Democrats this year. While Hugo seems unlikely to win re-election by the 20-point margin he did in 2015, this district is simply too Republican-leaning at the state level and Hugo is too well-known and respected by his constituents for me to believe the Republican incumbent will lose. That said, Tanner's campaign has been very well-disciplined and organized. Democrats also seem to be making a genuine effort to flip this district. The race is Hugo's to lose at this point, but keep an eye out on election night should things tighten up. HD51 - Leans Republican The 51st district has received far less attention this cycle than other Northern Virginia seats, which is surprising since this is a classic swing state and exactly the sort of target Democrats need to flip in order to have any shot at retaking control of the House of Delegates. That's not to say that they don't have a good shot at doing just that, and indeed I've been forced to move this race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican in the past few weeks because of a number of factors. Straddling both ends of Prince William County, the 51st district is usually a battle between the Democratic-dominated portions of the district centered around Lake Ridge, and the Republican bastions of Nokesville and Brentsville. The precincts in the center of the district transition from deep blue, to light blue, purple, pink, and finally crimson red as one travels from east to west. Anderson was unchallenged in 2015, though in 2013 he edged out his Democratic opponent Reed Heddleston by an 8-point margin. During past races, the 51st voted for Republican Attorney General nominee Mark Obenshain by less than 1-point in 2013, while backing Democrat Ralph Northan by a 4-point margin for Lt. Governor (which is surprising, given Northam's 10-point blowout statewide in 2013). For Governor, the could not have been closer, voting for Republican nominee Ken Cuccinelli by razor-thin 47.96% to Terry McAuliffe's 47.24%. In 2014, the district voted to send no GOP gubernatorial nominee Ed Gillespie to the US Senate by a relatively solid 52-45 margin over Democratic Senator Mark Warner. Gillespie's showing in 2014 bodes well for the Anderson campaign, and demonstrates that this is not a district with deep Democratic roots. Democratic challenger Hala Ayala hopes thus rely on Hillary Clinton's 7-point victory in the district in 2016, and her campaign has worked to translate that support down to the state-level in an attempt to overcome the district's traditionally mild Republican lean. Looking at finance reports, she's certainly got the money to pull it off, having actually outraised and out-spent Anderson. Anderson however has not been sitting idly by. His campaign has patiently been waiting by to unleash nearly $150,000 which they've kept in reserve until the final months before election day. Despite being outraised by Ayala thus far, Anderon's team is poised to bury her with nearly twice as much cash on hand as of the last filing report. This combined with the structural advantages of incumbency and the district's slight Republican lean at the state-level suggest Anderson will be returning to Richmond next year, albeit with a slightly more reduced margin than in 2013, likely to the tune of less than 5%. HD50 - Likely Republican The 50th...

Guest Contributor Richard Saunders

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