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(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Deep Dive Into the Governor’s Race

written by Mick Staton November 15, 2017

It has been one week since Virginia Republicans faced the electoral apocalypse, and the recriminations and accusations about whose fault this disaster belongs to have run the gamut. So far the only excuse I haven’t heard yet is little green men brainwashing voters, but basically everyone is trying to shape the narrative of this election loss to fit their desired course of future action, regardless of the facts. This is a dangerous course to take. It is imperative we learn the lesson of this election loss, but we must learn the CORRECT lesson, or we will chart the wrong course for the future.

I have attempted to do a deep dive into the numbers from the 2017 election to try and provide more clarity to what happened and why, and to debunk some theories. There are three common themes of what happened that have emerged. We will start with the most popular one first.

Gillespie didn’t embrace Trump, and depressed the base

Aside from being the most popular theory, especially amongst a certain segment of the party, it is also the easiest one to debunk. Ed Gillespie received more votes for Governor than any Republican in the history of Virginia. He received more votes for Governor than any candidate in the history of Virginia, save one…Ralph Northam. In 2013, Ken C. got 1,013,354 votes, while Gillespie got 1,172,931 votes, an increase of nearly 16% (159,577).

All across the state Ed Gillespie outperformed Ken Cuccinelli, gaining steadily over Ken’s performance in 2013. Over half of all localities (70) saw Ed improve over Ken’s vote totals by anywhere from 15 to 30%. In another 26 localities he had gains of 10 to 15%, and in 22 localities he had gains of over 30%. Only one county saw Ken outperform Ed in total votes, and that was the City of Danville (-161).

If there was any truth to the idea that Gillespie depressed the base it would have been seen in decreased support in the rural Republican stronghold areas in the southern and western portions of the state. When you compare the numbers, however, you find exactly the opposite result.

In 46 cities and counties in the southern and western portion of the state, Ed Gillespie won larger margins of victory in 41 of them, including flipping Nelson County and the City of Covington from Democrat wins to Republican wins.  Overall, this region saw an increase of 50,000 votes for the Republican candidate, even though overall voter registration in these 46 cities and counties stayed flat (902,000 registered voters in 2013, 901,000 registered voters in 2017).

I believe it is also a fair question to ask the proponents of this theory that if the reason Ed Gillespie lost was because he did not embrace the President, how did Ed defeat Corey Stewart in the primaries, when Corey was a full-throated supporter of President Trump?

In simplest terms, that dog won’t hunt.

We can also debunk some of the minor excuses for this loss:

Increased population/200,000 more felons registered

From 2013 to 2017 the number of registered voters in Virginia increased from 5,250,029 to 5,485,015, an increase of 234,985 (4.9%). An increase in registered voters of less than 5% over 4 years is not exactly a population explosion, and unless nearly every single new registered voter in that time frame was a felon who had their voting rights restored, I think we can safely rule out that theory for the loss.

Changing Demographics

In order to look at this we turn to exit polling data to look at the makeup of the electorate.

In 2013, exit polls showed the voting populace looking like this:

Race Total Cuccinelli McAuliffe
White: 72% 56% 36%
Black: 20% 8% 90%
Latino: 4% N/A N/A
Asian: 1% N/A N/A

While the 2017 exit polls show a voting populace that looked like this:

Race Total Gillespie Northam
White: 67% 57% 42%
Black: 20% 12% 87%
Latino: 6% 32% 67%
Asian: 3% N/A N/A

While there was a drop in the percentage of White voters, Black voters stayed the same, Latino voters increased from 4% to 6%, and Asian voters went from 1% to 3%.  In addition, Gillespie won a higher percentage of Black voters than Cuccinelli, and Gillespie won a higher percentage of Latino voters than Trump did in 2016.  There is just not enough of a demographic swing to account for the wild increase in turnout and support for Northam, especially considering Gillespie’s improved performance among minorities over Cuccinelli.

So if the answer isn’t a depressed Republican base, and it’s not a population explosion, and it’s not an increased minority population or felons voting, what could explain the dramatic increase in support for Ralph Northam and the entire Democrat ticket?

The answer simple.  More Democrats showed up to vote.

What Happened

Ralph Northam’s performance last Tuesday was a mixed bag of results.  He did far better than McAuliffe in terms of raw votes, but his results across the state were uneven, showing a marginalization of Democrat support in some areas.  McAuliffe got 1,069,789 votes while Northam received 1,405,177 votes, an enormous 31% increase (335,000). However, Northam’s support was not seen as a statewide trend.  Northam had tepid increases of 1 to 15% in 37 localities, while a full 21 localities saw his vote total decline from what McAuliffe received in 2013.

The biggest difference in this race compared to 2013 is in major Democrat strongholds and the outer suburbs where Democrats turned out in greater than normal numbers.  There were 9 localities that gave Ralph Northam an increase of at least 11,000 votes over Terry McAuliffe in 2013.  This includes Fairfax County (76,179), Loudoun (25,341), Prince William (21,109), Arlington (19,969), VA. Beach (17,006), Henrico (16,765),  the City of Richmond (15,843), Chesterfield (14,784), and Alexandria (11,242).  All together, these 9 localities gave Northam 218,238 more votes than Terry McAuliffe.

In addition, there were another 24 incorporated cities in VA, including college towns like Harrisonburg, Charlottesville, Radford, Lynchburg, etc.. which saw an increase in Democrat support of at least 20%.  These cities gave Northam another 49,476 more votes than McAuliffe.  Added together, this accounts for over 267,000 (80%) of the 335,000 vote increase Northam received over McAuliffe.

This wasn’t a normal turnout either. It was a motivated, energized turnout of Democrats.  For the first time in over 20 years, Arlington, Alexandria, Charlottesville, and Fairfax County saw a turnout of over 50% in a Governor’s race, with tremendous increases in turnout even when there was not a large increase in registered voters:

Locality 2013 Turnout 2017 Turnout % Increase 2013 Registered Voters 2017 Registered Voters % Increase Total Turnout %
Arlington 67,539 85,323 26% 159,762 163,178 2% 52%
Alexandria 41,218 52,101 26% 96,358 101,615 5% 51%
Charlottesville 12,508 16,408 31% 32,341 31,876 -1% 51%
Fairfax County 306,430 375,636 31% 705,462 738,180 5% 51%

Democrats also saw a dramatic increase in their vote percentage in relation to registered voters.  For example, in the chart below it shows that in 2013, 30% of all registered voters in Arlington County came out to vote for a Democrat.  In 2017, however, 42% of all registered voters came out to vote for a Democrat. The Democrats set modern day records in Arlington, Alexandria, Charlottesville, Fairfax County, the City of Richmond, Loudoun, Prince William, Virginia Beach, Chesterfield, and Henrico.

Locality 2013 Dem Vote 2017 Dem Vote % Increase 2013_Registered Voters Voting Democrat 2017_Registered Voters Voting Democrat
Arlington 48,346 68,315 41% 30% 42%
Alexandria 29,584 40,826 38% 31% 40%
Charlottesville 9,440 13,909 47% 29% 44%
Fairfax County 178,746 254,925 43% 25% 35%
Richmond City 42,957 58,800 37% 33% 40%
Loudoun 44,369 69,710 57% 21% 29%
Prince William 50,441 71,550 42% 20% 26%
Virginia Beach 49,357 66,363 34% 19% 25%
Chesterfield 42,865 57,649 34% 19% 25%
Henrico 53,132 69,897 32% 26% 32%

This is also backed up by the previously referred to exit polling data.  In 2013, the ideological makeup of the voting population was 37% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 31% Independent:

Party Total Cuccinelli McAuliffe
Democrat: 37% 2% 95%
Republican: 32% 92% 4%
Independent: 31% 47% 38%

In 2017, those numbers had shifted much more in favor of the Democrats:

Party Total Gillespie Northam
Democrat: 41% 3% 97%
Republican: 30% 95% 4%
Independent: 28% 50% 47%

The ideology of the voters in the 2017 election shifted, as well, to a much more liberal voting bloc.

2013 Ideology Total Cuccinelli McAuliffe
Liberal: 20% 4% 89%
Moderate: 44% 34% 56%
Conservative: 36% 83% 13%
2017 Ideology Total Gillespie Northam
Liberal: 27% 6% 92%
Moderate: 42% 33% 64%
Conservative: 31% 90% 9%

In short, Democrats were far more fired up to vote, and they came out in droves in Democrat strongholds.  They also came out in larger than normal numbers in the outer suburbs which, coincidentally, is where we lost all of our Republican House of Delegate members.

Why Did It Happen?

Jeanine Martin summed up this question quite succinctly with this post from the other day.  The number one, really the only reason, Democrats were so fired up to vote on Tuesday was so they could stick it to President Trump. Trump’s constant use of Twitter to demean his political opponents, attack Gold Star Wives, and troll just about anyone else that does not show the proper deference to him not only turns off Independent voters, but also enrages Democrats to come out and vote against any and all things Republican, and that’s what happened on Tuesday.

There was just a massive increase of partisan Democrats and mushy Independents that stormed up to the polling booth, grabbed the Democrat sample ballot, and voted for Democrats straight down the line. They didn’t know who they were voting for and they didn’t care.  I honestly believe there were quite a few people who woke up Wednesday morning surprised to find they had replaced Del. Bob Marshall with a dude that likes to wear dresses and call himself a woman.

I really feel sorry for any Republican that was running on Tuesday.  I can only imagine how hard it was for them to knock on the door of an undecided Independent and try to make their campaign pitch for their vote, only to have the President of the United States follow right behind them, give the voter the middle finger and tell them, “I DARE you to vote Democrat!”

For those of you right now preparing your, “what about Obama!” responses, you are absolutely right.  Obama did not bring people together.  Obama divided this country like never before (until Trump).  But you have to remember that Obama cost the Democrat Party over 1,000 down ballot seats in his 8 years in office.  He angered his political opponents, and his party paid the price.  So just because Obama decided to jump off that particular bridge, does it mean we want Trump to do the same?

What To Do About It

The answer to that question is much longer than this already incredibly long post, and it will take a long time to implement.  What we DON’T need to do right now is start calling for people’s scalps.  NOBODY saw this disaster coming.  Republicans, Democrats, pollsters, the media…NOBODY!  Anybody who claims otherwise is a liar.  Ralph Northam turned down an interview request with CNN on Tuesday.  You don’t do that when you think you are going to romp to a historic victory.

We also don’t need to begin the requisite calls for purging this portion or that portion of the people that call themselves Republican. That’s all we seem to do in the Virginia Republican Party these days.  Keep in mind that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting a different result.

We don’t even need to run away from President Trump or his agenda.  That may sound strange coming from someone who has never been a fan of the orange-hued Liberal Democrat residing in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

The first step in fixing a problem is admitting that you have a problem, and for the Republican Party the immediate problem is Trump’s mouth.  In the short term, what we DO need to do is have someone that he trusts, like Gen. John Kelly, to tell Trump to SHUT…UP!!  I know there are those of you out there that love Trump’s tweets, but there is a reason that most SUCCESSFUL politicians are so boring and non-controversial in public, and it is a simple rule to remember:

Nobody likes a jerk.

The second thing we need to do is work to force both the President AND Congress to advance the agenda the President CAMPAIGNED on, not the one they are currently trying to force on us.  Trump campaigned on a platform of Conservative policies, but all we have been served since he took office is a steaming pile of establishment mush.

There are a lot more ideas I have for what the Party needs to do, but those will have to wait for another day.  For now, we need to recognize that we are currently standing in a very deep hole, and we need to convince each other to stop digging.

Deep Dive Into the Governor’s Race was last modified: November 16th, 2017 by Mick Staton
Donald TrumpEd GillespieKen CuccinelliRalph NorthamRNCRPV
126 comments
Mick Staton

Devoted husband and father of five, Mick is a recovering politician who now works in the software development field. He has spent most of his life involved in politics, starting out working for his father's Congressional campaigns in WV when he was 8 years old. Since moving to Loudoun County Mick has served as a precinct captain, district chairman, Loudoun County YR Chairman, and was elected to the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors in 2003.

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