Deep Dive Into the Governor’s Race

written by Mick Staton November 15, 2017

It has been one week since Virginia Republicans faced the electoral apocalypse, and the recriminations and accusations about whose fault this disaster belongs to have run the gamut. So far the only excuse I haven’t heard yet is little green men brainwashing voters, but basically everyone is trying to shape the narrative of this election loss to fit their desired course of future action, regardless of the facts. This is a dangerous course to take. It is imperative we learn the lesson of this election loss, but we must learn the CORRECT lesson, or we will chart the wrong course for the future.

I have attempted to do a deep dive into the numbers from the 2017 election to try and provide more clarity to what happened and why, and to debunk some theories. There are three common themes of what happened that have emerged. We will start with the most popular one first.

Gillespie didn’t embrace Trump, and depressed the base

Aside from being the most popular theory, especially amongst a certain segment of the party, it is also the easiest one to debunk. Ed Gillespie received more votes for Governor than any Republican in the history of Virginia. He received more votes for Governor than any candidate in the history of Virginia, save one…Ralph Northam. In 2013, Ken C. got 1,013,354 votes, while Gillespie got 1,172,931 votes, an increase of nearly 16% (159,577).

All across the state Ed Gillespie outperformed Ken Cuccinelli, gaining steadily over Ken’s performance in 2013. Over half of all localities (70) saw Ed improve over Ken’s vote totals by anywhere from 15 to 30%. In another 26 localities he had gains of 10 to 15%, and in 22 localities he had gains of over 30%. Only one county saw Ken outperform Ed in total votes, and that was the City of Danville (-161).

If there was any truth to the idea that Gillespie depressed the base it would have been seen in decreased support in the rural Republican stronghold areas in the southern and western portions of the state. When you compare the numbers, however, you find exactly the opposite result.

In 46 cities and counties in the southern and western portion of the state, Ed Gillespie won larger margins of victory in 41 of them, including flipping Nelson County and the City of Covington from Democrat wins to Republican wins. Overall, this region saw an increase of 50,000 votes for the Republican candidate, even though overall voter registration in these 46 cities and counties stayed flat (902,000 registered voters in 2013, 901,000 registered voters in 2017).

I believe it is also a fair question to ask the proponents of this theory that if the reason Ed Gillespie lost was because he did not embrace the President, how did Ed defeat Corey Stewart in the primaries, when Corey was a full-throated supporter of President Trump?

In simplest terms, that dog won’t hunt.

We can also debunk some of the minor excuses for this loss:

Increased population/200,000 more felons registered

From 2013 to 2017 the number of registered voters in Virginia increased from 5,250,029 to 5,485,015, an increase of 234,985 (4.9%). An increase in registered voters of less than 5% over 4 years is not exactly a population explosion, and unless nearly every single new registered voter in that time frame was a felon who had their voting rights restored, I think we can safely rule out that theory for the loss.

Changing Demographics

In order to look at this we turn to exit polling data to look at the makeup of the electorate.

In 2013, exit polls showed the voting populace looking like this:

Race	Total	Cuccinelli	McAuliffe
White:	72%	56%	36%
Black:	20%	8%	90%
Latino:	4%	N/A	N/A
Asian:	1%	N/A	N/A

While the 2017 exit polls show a voting populace that looked like this:

Race	Total	Gillespie	Northam
White:	67%	57%	42%
Black:	20%	12%	87%
Latino:	6%	32%	67%
Asian:	3%	N/A	N/A

While there was a drop in the percentage of White voters, Black voters stayed the same, Latino voters increased from 4% to 6%, and Asian voters went from 1% to 3%. In addition, Gillespie won a higher percentage of Black voters than Cuccinelli, and Gillespie won a higher percentage of Latino voters than Trump did in 2016. There is just not enough of a demographic swing to account for the wild increase in turnout and support for Northam, especially considering Gillespie’s improved performance among minorities over Cuccinelli.

So if the answer isn’t a depressed Republican base, and it’s not a population explosion, and it’s not an increased minority population or felons voting, what could explain the dramatic increase in support for Ralph Northam and the entire Democrat ticket?

The answer simple. More Democrats showed up to vote.

What Happened

Ralph Northam’s performance last Tuesday was a mixed bag of results. He did far better than McAuliffe in terms of raw votes, but his results across the state were uneven, showing a marginalization of Democrat support in some areas. McAuliffe got 1,069,789 votes while Northam received 1,405,177 votes, an enormous 31% increase (335,000). However, Northam’s support was not seen as a statewide trend. Northam had tepid increases of 1 to 15% in 37 localities, while a full 21 localities saw his vote total decline from what McAuliffe received in 2013.

The biggest difference in this race compared to 2013 is in major Democrat strongholds and the outer suburbs where Democrats turned out in greater than normal numbers. There were 9 localities that gave Ralph Northam an increase of at least 11,000 votes over Terry McAuliffe in 2013. This includes Fairfax County (76,179), Loudoun (25,341), Prince William (21,109), Arlington (19,969), VA. Beach (17,006), Henrico (16,765), the City of Richmond (15,843), Chesterfield (14,784), and Alexandria (11,242). All together, these 9 localities gave Northam 218,238 more votes than Terry McAuliffe.

In addition, there were another 24 incorporated cities in VA, including college towns like Harrisonburg, Charlottesville, Radford, Lynchburg, etc.. which saw an increase in Democrat support of at least 20%. These cities gave Northam another 49,476 more votes than McAuliffe. Added together, this accounts for over 267,000 (80%) of the 335,000 vote increase Northam received over McAuliffe.

This wasn’t a normal turnout either. It was a motivated, energized turnout of Democrats. For the first time in over 20 years, Arlington, Alexandria, Charlottesville, and Fairfax County saw a turnout of over 50% in a Governor’s race, with tremendous increases in turnout even when there was not a large increase in registered voters:

Locality	2013 Turnout	2017 Turnout	% Increase	2013 Registered Voters	2017 Registered Voters	% Increase	Total Turnout %
Arlington	67,539	85,323	26%	159,762	163,178	2%	52%
Alexandria	41,218	52,101	26%	96,358	101,615	5%	51%
Charlottesville	12,508	16,408	31%	32,341	31,876	-1%	51%
Fairfax County	306,430	375,636	31%	705,462	738,180	5%	51%

Democrats also saw a dramatic increase in their vote percentage in relation to registered voters. For example, in the chart below it shows that in 2013, 30% of all registered voters in Arlington County came out to vote for a Democrat. In 2017, however, 42% of all registered voters came out to vote for a Democrat. The Democrats set modern day records in Arlington, Alexandria, Charlottesville, Fairfax County, the City of Richmond, Loudoun, Prince William, Virginia Beach, Chesterfield, and Henrico.

Locality	2013 Dem Vote	2017 Dem Vote	% Increase	2013_Registered Voters Voting Democrat	2017_Registered Voters Voting Democrat
Arlington	48,346	68,315	41%	30%	42%
Alexandria	29,584	40,826	38%	31%	40%
Charlottesville	9,440	13,909	47%	29%	44%
Fairfax County	178,746	254,925	43%	25%	35%
Richmond City	42,957	58,800	37%	33%	40%
Loudoun	44,369	69,710	57%	21%	29%
Prince William	50,441	71,550	42%	20%	26%
Virginia Beach	49,357	66,363	34%	19%	25%
Chesterfield	42,865	57,649	34%	19%	25%
Henrico	53,132	69,897	32%	26%	32%

This is also backed up by the previously referred to exit polling data. In 2013, the ideological makeup of the voting population was 37% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 31% Independent:

Party	Total	Cuccinelli	McAuliffe
Democrat:	37%	2%	95%
Republican:	32%	92%	4%
Independent:	31%	47%	38%

In 2017, those numbers had shifted much more in favor of the Democrats:

Party	Total	Gillespie	Northam
Democrat:	41%	3%	97%
Republican:	30%	95%	4%
Independent:	28%	50%	47%

The ideology of the voters in the 2017 election shifted, as well, to a much more liberal voting bloc.

2013 Ideology	Total	Cuccinelli	McAuliffe
Liberal:	20%	4%	89%
Moderate:	44%	34%	56%
Conservative:	36%	83%	13%

2017 Ideology	Total	Gillespie	Northam
Liberal:	27%	6%	92%
Moderate:	42%	33%	64%
Conservative:	31%	90%	9%

In short, Democrats were far more fired up to vote, and they came out in droves in Democrat strongholds. They also came out in larger than normal numbers in the outer suburbs which, coincidentally, is where we lost all of our Republican House of Delegate members.

Why Did It Happen?

Jeanine Martin summed up this question quite succinctly with this post from the other day. The number one, really the only reason, Democrats were so fired up to vote on Tuesday was so they could stick it to President Trump. Trump’s constant use of Twitter to demean his political opponents, attack Gold Star Wives, and troll just about anyone else that does not show the proper deference to him not only turns off Independent voters, but also enrages Democrats to come out and vote against any and all things Republican, and that’s what happened on Tuesday.

There was just a massive increase of partisan Democrats and mushy Independents that stormed up to the polling booth, grabbed the Democrat sample ballot, and voted for Democrats straight down the line. They didn’t know who they were voting for and they didn’t care. I honestly believe there were quite a few people who woke up Wednesday morning surprised to find they had replaced Del. Bob Marshall with a dude that likes to wear dresses and call himself a woman.

I really feel sorry for any Republican that was running on Tuesday. I can only imagine how hard it was for them to knock on the door of an undecided Independent and try to make their campaign pitch for their vote, only to have the President of the United States follow right behind them, give the voter the middle finger and tell them, “I DARE you to vote Democrat!”

For those of you right now preparing your, “what about Obama!” responses, you are absolutely right. Obama did not bring people together. Obama divided this country like never before (until Trump). But you have to remember that Obama cost the Democrat Party over 1,000 down ballot seats in his 8 years in office. He angered his political opponents, and his party paid the price. So just because Obama decided to jump off that particular bridge, does it mean we want Trump to do the same?

What To Do About It

The answer to that question is much longer than this already incredibly long post, and it will take a long time to implement. What we DON’T need to do right now is start calling for people’s scalps. NOBODY saw this disaster coming. Republicans, Democrats, pollsters, the media…NOBODY! Anybody who claims otherwise is a liar. Ralph Northam turned down an interview request with CNN on Tuesday. You don’t do that when you think you are going to romp to a historic victory.

We also don’t need to begin the requisite calls for purging this portion or that portion of the people that call themselves Republican. That’s all we seem to do in the Virginia Republican Party these days. Keep in mind that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting a different result.

We don’t even need to run away from President Trump or his agenda. That may sound strange coming from someone who has never been a fan of the orange-hued Liberal Democrat residing in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

The first step in fixing a problem is admitting that you have a problem, and for the Republican Party the immediate problem is Trump’s mouth. In the short term, what we DO need to do is have someone that he trusts, like Gen. John Kelly, to tell Trump to SHUT…UP!! I know there are those of you out there that love Trump’s tweets, but there is a reason that most SUCCESSFUL politicians are so boring and non-controversial in public, and it is a simple rule to remember:

Nobody likes a jerk.

The second thing we need to do is work to force both the President AND Congress to advance the agenda the President CAMPAIGNED on, not the one they are currently trying to force on us. Trump campaigned on a platform of Conservative policies, but all we have been served since he took office is a steaming pile of establishment mush.

There are a lot more ideas I have for what the Party needs to do, but those will have to wait for another day. For now, we need to recognize that we are currently standing in a very deep hole, and we need to convince each other to stop digging.

Mick Staton

Devoted husband and father of five, Mick is a recovering politician who now works in the software development field. He has spent most of his life involved in politics, starting out working for his father's Congressional campaigns in WV when he was 8 years old. Since moving to Loudoun County Mick has served as a precinct captain, district chairman, Loudoun County YR Chairman, and was elected to the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors in 2003.

Isophorone

I would add that at this point, Trump and Virginia Republicans have nothing to lose by cutting down the size and scope of the Federal government. It will mostly make Democrats unemployed (or move away, or get real jobs). Some of this can be done administratively, but some of it Congress is going to have to get some balls and legislate.
- Jeanine Martin
  
  Good luck with our wimpy Congress.
- Chris
  
  I find your disrespect for our hardworking public servants offensive. From the scientists in the office where my wife works to the IRS call center employee who helped me out last year when we had to submit proof of title to our home, I am consistently amazed at the quality and dedication of government employees. (I’m serious about the IRS – I was on hold for 90 minutes but once I got through the woman I spoke to was incredibly helpful.)
  
  The reason that we never see meaningful reductions in the size of government is that while Republicans like the idea of reducing government in the abstract, its appeal seems to be predicated on the false assumption that there is widespread waste. As soon as you start talking about cutting specific government programs, it turns out that Republican voters want some other government program cut.
  - Isophorone
    
    Chris, let’s just say that you are operating with incomplete information.
    
    However, I will agree that Republicans all too often have pet government programs that they do not want to shutter. We’ll see if Trump (with his interesting relations with Congress) will change things.
    
    As far as the IRS goes, it is a good argument for tax reform and simplification.
  - Jeanine Martin
    
    Psssttt, he works for the federal government.
  - Warmac9999
    
    Did it ever occur to you that you wouldn’t need all this help if the government regulatory environment was a lot smaller. Sure, you would have to take greater personal risk but the security you get from being dependent on government is a dangerous illusion. You hate Trump because you think he is abusing Obama. I hated Obama because I knew he was abusing Obama. If government were much smaller, neither would have such an impact on the lives of American citizens.
    - Chris
      
      Yeah…I need all this help…and am not taking personal risks…what happened was that after e-filing taxes (which I prepared myself…to save money…risky!) my name came up in the “make sure they aren’t lying about their mortgage deduction” lottery. So your comment is apropos of nothing…but I guess you think IRC compliance is not important?
      - Warmac9999
        
        Eliminate the mortgage deduction and give everyone a greater tax break. Then you aren’t hit with the e-filing mortgage deduction problem.
Catherine Stone McNickle

Great analysis, Mick. We are no better than the democrats if we ignore the fact that our President is causing the other side to vote against him. Not vote FOR the democrats, but against him and anyone with an R after their name.
Richard Statman

Appreciate the post.
There is much truth in the numbers.
I am persuaded to say at the huge increase in Democrats
That came out skewered any standard deviation , and for myself
Created an outcome where I might muse a standard deviation that places
Gillespie closer to Hydra than to Northam.
When you have a confluence of social, educational, cultural , media
Institutions that over the last generation or two tilting left , the issue
For any Republican candidates is more difficult.
I would guess that one might look not to Trump or Whitbeck ,
Or any idea of demographics , but instead follow the money trails
Where they lead for Republicans .
The who, why, how and when of the money for me seems to determine
The candidates , kill outlier candidates and their ideas .
Dems seem more willing to promote outlier candidates , even as strawmen
So Dem voters believe there is a primary choice , true or not.
Personally, would like to see more outsiders and outliers like
Denver Riggleman with funding , win or lose , clearer cleaner message to follow
And support , a lot less baggage.,
Thanks again for the post.
Chris k

Numbers, math and objective analysis are all FAKE NEWS!
- Mick Staton
  
  Best comment I’ve read in awhile.
Danielle

This is a brilliant analysis. Well done.
Fredy Burgos

Turnout was the answer. The Dems had their reason and there wasn’t a reason to turn out ordinary people to vote for Gillespie. Dems had approximately 74% of the vote come out who voted for Clinton. Republican had only 64% come out of the Trump vote. If 80% came out Gillespie wins. He distance himself from what people are hungry for. He did not embrace the agenda of America First MAGA agenda which is a movement to save western civilization which is law and order, nationhood agenda. Those who did not come out and usually never vote stayed home because instead of a charismatic and inspiring pitchman for this movement we had a man who distanced himself from the help of the face of the movement, President Trump and Steve Bannon. Instead he brings in Marco Rubio and George Bush. For that Gillespie for ever placed the nails upon his own coffen and labeling himself as kind of politician that people don’t want in our time, Establishment Ed.
FrankUnderwoodSr

When you look at turnout and demographic changes in isolation, you fail to recognize the compounding effect. Yes, the state turnout was higher overall, for both Democrats and Republicans, but when you look at where the population is growing fastest (nova) and where the turnout was highest (nova) you can definitely see that both were critical.
I posted this mini-analysis the day after the election.

“Look at the demographics. Loudoun is already 16% larger since the last time we elected a governor just four years ago. On the other hand, at least five rural counties in Virginia are shrinking in population at double digit rates. Two big factors are leading NOVA growth…. bigger government (doubled in eight years under Obama) and huge increases in immigration> Both are huge boosts for the Democrats.
Look at Loudoun’s next door neighbor, Fauquier, which is still red, at least so far. Fauquier has only grown 5% since the election 4 years ago (same as Virginia as a whole) but In this election it voted 60% Republican which is exactly the same as it has been in the last three elections, including the Trump election. Fauquier even delivered a nearly 4% boost in turnout, with some very hard work in support of Gillespie. But that is nothing compared to the 16% growth in neighboring Loudoun, with 7% more turnout of top of that. Loudoun is undergoing huge demographic changes; Fauquier not so much. Fauquier votes the same as before anyone ever heard of Trump the politician. It looks like Loudoun will never vote for a Republican again.”

It is true that the hyper-partisan atmosphere for this election was higher this year than last year. Democrats did turn out in huge numbers. To blame Trump’s tweets as you do, is nonsense. It isn’t his tweets that drove Democrats to the polls; it was his promise to drain the swamp and control immigration again, which threatens Dems’ politically. Similarly, Trump’s tweets did not turnoff and suppress Republican voters; Republican turnout was actually higher too! And in Republicans strongholds, they voted just as strongly for Trump as in past Republican elections, except that Republicans areas of the state are shrinking in population while Democrat areas are growing like topsy.

In other words, you can’t just look at statewide turnout, and state wide Demographics. You have to look at where change is happening in order to see the compounding effect.

One last point….. Yes, the partisan divide is stronger than ever. Trump was a catalyst for real change which threatens Democrats and inspired them to vote, but Trump also inspired Republicans turnout to increase. Republicans did not abandon Trump in this election like a bunch of snowflakes offended by his tweets, as you portray. And even if that were true, the solution would not be a return to the good old days of gentleman Republican politicians who do nothing to solve problems and who fail to deliver on campaign promises. We aren’t going to get the country back without a huge fight, and we have to be willing to fight for it.
- Mick Staton
  
  I have done a more extensive look at the exurbs like Loudoun, Prince William, and Chesterfield, because I have heard that same argument from a number of people. What you find does not match what you are claiming. Let’s take a look at Loudoun, since you used that one (and I happen to live there)
  
  In 1997 the number of registered voters was 74,920. In 2017 it was 242,313. That’s over a 300% increase. However, the percentage of those people that showed up and voted democrat in the 5 previous Governor’s races stayed very constant:
  
  1997 – 13,697 (18%)
  2001 – 20,907 (19%)
  2005 – 31,074 (21%)
  2009 – 25,430 (14%) – This was the Creigh Deeds/McDonnell election
  2013 – 44,369 (21%)
  
  The jump in votes from 2009 to 2013 looks to be enormous, but when you look at the overall trend line you find that the Democrats are just returning to the norm from a precipitous drop in 2009. But here is what happens in 2017:
  
  2017 – 69,710 (29%)
  
  The Democrats blow through that trend line in enormous numbers, something they have never done before. The same thing happens in the other exurbs of Prince William, Chestefrield, Henrico, and even in Virginia Beach. These voters are Democrats who don’t normally vote in these off year elections, but they are also Independents (even Right leaning ones) who came out specifically to send a message. This surge in the exurbs of atypical Democrat support is what cost us so many House of Delegate seats.
  
  Where the Republican party has failed is in it’s inability, or unwillingness, to spend the money to go into these fast growing areas and identify these new voters, find the ones that are right leaning and Republican, and convince them to come out to vote. The Republicans hold fairly steady in their levels of support in the exurbs, but it is a pattern of stagnancy in multiple elections, followed by a surge of new Republican votes, followed by more stagnancy.
  
  This unusual surge in anti-Trump votes was not brought on by any swamp-draining, either, because there hasn’t been any swamp-draining occurring. I work as a Government contractor, and I can tell you that before the election our budgets were under serious constraint because of all the Continuing Resolutions. Since Trump has been elected, the budget pressure has eased up and the money is flowing again.
  - FrankUnderwoodSr
    
    You continue to miss the point. The turnout in Loudoun is higher than average. But the main difference is the demographic change; the huge increase in population. The number of registered voters grew by 16% in four years which dwarfs the difference in turnout percentage. It’s all fine to say that Republicans should try harder to capture some of that increased population, but you are ignoring where that population increase came from…. govt workers, and immigrants who are hugely favoring Democrats, and who are extraordinarily sensitive to drain the swamp political issues. Of courses they were easy to motivate to turnout for Democrats. That isn’t because of Trump tweets… it’s because they vehemently oppose the effort to drain the swamp and control immigration. What are Republicans supposed to do about that, capitulate? Offer candidates who are only paper tigers? On the other hand, in more rural areas of Virginia we are losing population but the remaining population continues to support Republicans as always. Yes, we have to do better, but you are kidding yourself if you think Trump’s personality is the problem to focus on.
    - Mick Staton
      
      I have lived in Loudoun County for almost 17 years. I have held political office here. I know all about Loudoun’s growth and it’s demographics. I also know all about shifting political preference based on land use and density patterns. I showed you in crystal clear numbers above that what you are claiming is not what is happening. Even with all of our changing demographics over the last 20 years, the Democrats were still only ever able to get about 20% of registered voters to vote for their candidate for Governor until last Tuesday.
      
      Also, you have to remember that Democrats are not the only ones to work for the federal government. I know you want to cling to the whole, “Trump is draining the swamp” line, but that is not what is happening.
      - FrankUnderwoodSr
        
        Whether or not any actual swamp draining has happened is totally irrelevant. It only matters what voters think is going to happen.
    - Richard Statman
      
      Agreed.
      Live in Charlottesville , and the issues
      Certainly predated Trump’s arrival.
      The surrounding county; Albemarle has trended
      Democrat for the last few years .
      In both areas all local offices , BOS , Council, School Boards
      are with one person I believe Democrat.
      My opinion , as stated before , is that our social , cultural
      Educational , political and media institutions have trended
      And embraced progressive viewpoints and policies.
      Perhaps it’s the age we live in.
      The Republican Party is hollowing out in the demographic
      Numbers .Go to a Republican meeting in Albemarle for proof.
      Doubling down on “conservative” ideas in other posts ,in the wake of
      The Charlottesville moment this summer simply does not resonate.
      My opinion is that the future of the Republican Party , if it has one,
      In the years to come wom’t be found in buzz words of conservative
      Or populist ,
      The future isn’t written yet, I agree with you not to tag Trump
      In a singular way to explain things.
      - Edward N Virginia
        
        Election official in rural Albemarle in a Republican-leaning precinct. For more than a decade I have SEEN AND GREETED 98% of EACH AND EVERY VOTER, actually spoken with them. Trump won the district BECAUSE of large numbers of NEW – First Time, or Infrequent – voters. Many of these appeared to be men (since you stupid commentators in here INSIST on labelling people by what clothes they wear! HOW STUPID is that! We have MANY people in work clothes, who could be men or women, and only the earrings are the ‘give a hint’! GET OFF THE STUPID LABELLING!) . So, many appeared to be men, and appeared to be in their 40s. We also have a GROWING number of diverse voters – in a RURAL precinct: people of color, Millennials (yes, they are moving OUT of Charlottesville because they work in artisanal agriculture, and/or they can’t afford to own or rent in the city), international people. Its a fantastic precinct. We have ‘traditional conservatives’ who alway come in camo and bloody clothes because they HUNT on Election Day. We have a community of Bahai, Sufi, and other Muslim believers (some who were traditional Sufi attire). We have growing number of Latinix voters. We have many ‘home school’ families, and we have many UVA educators, nurses, administrators. We have many mechanics, forestry workers, and people who come to vote with ‘names’ embroidered to their uniform, or who wear nursing home uniforms. The precinct voted for Gillespie, but not by a large percentage! Surprise! THEY did however vote strongly for the incumbent Delegate. Etc.
- Chris
  
  First, what has Trump actually done to drain the swamp?
  
  Second, I find it odd that you assume Democrats are motivated by corruption and not by health care, education, or any of the other actual issues that winning Democratic candidates campaigned on.
  - Warmac9999
    
    Repealing regulations is a swamp draining act.
- Lawrence Wood
  
  Yep, believe you as usual do get it minus the agenda which is actually refreshing. My question and suspicion is given this growth distribution (following your logic) if you normalize the actual base votes by population based county tiers why are these percentages so very close in the past two statewide races? They clearly show Dem dominance in top Tier population counties but no actual short term indication of a continuing growth surge in the past 12 -18 months that jumps out including the recent governor’s race.
  
  If this rough 60/40 (D/R) Tier 1 and 55/45 (R/D) Tier 2 vote percentage continues to hold up (Tier 3 small counties are a collapsing vote contributor and can’t carry any candidate to a win) than the facts would indicate that unless you can crack the Tier 1 60/40 (D/R) wall if you are a Republican you are NOT going to win a statewide race.
  
  This may be a “duh” moment for many but the parties still can’t seem to figure this given out. No decent Fairfax showing no win! One simple proposition – If you want to beat Tim Kane then you better get behind a candidate that can carry some of this Tier 1 vote base upfront or you are wasting your time and cash. This has about as much to do with Trump tweets as it does for some individuals personal philological or religious based dislikes for other’s alternative lifestyles. In other words absolutely NOTHING.
  - FrankUnderwoodSr
    
    Yes, exactly…… well said. I don’t claim to have the strategy to win in this environment. I’m only trying to dismiss the self destructive claims that we can blame this on Trump.
    - David Dickinson
      
      Yes, I’m greatly anticipating the “solutioning” post where we can all corporately spit up some decent ideas on how to improve.
      
      You’re above analysis is spot on.
ameri…canwork

Perhaps Ms. Jeanine is correct about Independents getting upset with the tweets, but it is funny.
Remember Trump *only* exist because of his *talk* of Americanism.

Then when all the elected don’t mount to a hill of beans to the independent voter it is proper to vote against someone, that is against that is left.

Now Whitbeck thinks getting a little more minorities will help? Hugh.
Edward N Virginia

Oh, you proved your point that people turned up to ‘stick it’ to Trumpian bigotry when you said

QUOTE
a dude that likes to wear dresses and call himself a woman.
UNQUOTE

Haven’t you noticed that people don’t like BULLIES!? Marshall has always been a BULLY. TRUMP is a BULLY. People don’t really like BULLIES!

And, let us rephrase your own rhetorical construction:
‘A child molester pervert who call his-filthy self a Judge’
‘Blasphemous defenders of the child molester who claim that Joseph molested the Blessed Virgin Mary and that is how we got Jesus and call themselves Evangelical Christians’
‘Filthy traitors against the US national security who call themselves Trump Campaign’
‘Republican ‘explainers’ who belittle and bully transgender persons and call themselves informed’
etc
- Mick Staton
  
  The guy is a dude…
  who dresses like a woman…
  and calls himself a woman…..
  
  How is it bullying to call him exactly what he is?
  - Edward N Virginia
    
    WTF does ‘dressing like a woman’ mean? and what does that matter? Because if your mother ever wore pants she/he/they were ‘dressing like a man’ according to some, and therefore was a freaking ‘transgender freak’. Did your mother ever wear pants?: A FREAKING TRANS!
    - Mick Staton
      
      My mother may have worn pants, but she never wore a man’s business suit, and she certainly never called herself a she.
      
      Why do you hate people like Dan so much that you want them to continue to suffer from their mental illness?
    - AmyH
      
      If you are truly unsure what that means, I would refer you to old episodes of M.A.S.H. Look at Klinger to see what “dressing like a woman” means.
      - Edward N Virginia
        
        WHY are you making pointless distinctions? That have NOTHING to do with
        
        – tax reform in which EVERY AMERICAN – EVERY! as Trump promised! – gets a BIG TAX CUT!
        
        – providing the health care that Trump promised: AFFORDABLE AND ACCESSIBLE FOR EVERY AMERICAN- EVERY!
        
        – ensuring safety of EVERY AMERICAN in EVERY COMMUNITY
        
        etc
        
        These distinctions are POINTLESS now, and for the rising Millennial, and NEXT after Millenial Generation STUPIDLY POINTLESS.
    - Jeanine Martin
      
      Most of us know the difference between a woman wearing pants and one who is trying to dress like a man. Surely you have seen such lesbians in their butch attire and a man’s haircut.
      - Edward N Virginia
        
        DUH! …. the point is this, since ya’ll be so DENSE to understand it (which is yet another reason ya’ll be dis-connecting from important blocks of voters!):
        
        WHY ARE YOU making this distinctions anyhow!? It has nothing to do with
        
        – tax reform in which EVERY AMERICAN – EVERY! as Trump promised! – gets a BIG TAX CUT!
        – providing the health care that Trump promised: AFFORDABLE AND ACCESSIBLE FOR EVERY AMERICAN- EVERY!
        – ensuring safety of EVERY AMERICAN in EVERY COMMUNITY
        etc
        
        These distinctions are POINTLESS now, and for the rising Millennial, and NEXT after Millenial Generation STUPIDLY POINTLESS.
  - Chris
    
    She calls herself she, and it’s not up to you to insist otherwise. It’s not political correctness, it’s basic respect. Have some.
    - Mick Staton
      
      Just because he calls himself a she, doesn’t mean that I have to, and it doesn’t make him a she. Indulgence and enabling of someone who is clearly suffering from mental illness is a very dangerous and destructive practice. Do you also enable people suffering from anorexia,? Do you applaud and celebrate young girls who are cutting themselves?
      
      It is amazing just how hateful Democrats can be to people who are suffering.
      - Chris
        
        How did you come to the conclusion that she is suffering / mentally ill? Honestly curious.
      - Chris
        
        I will elaborate:
        
        Your analogy of anorexia strikes a real chord for me, because people who have anorexia often do not think they have a problem and would rather pretend everything is fine than seek help.
        
        So if you have actual expertise in mental illness, or a source that does, or can link to some current peer-reviewed literature identifying “trans” people as mentally ill, that would be real food for thought.
      - AmyH
        
        The DSM labels them as mentally ill.
      - Chris
        
        The changes made in DSM-5 suggest that the literature is shifting.
      - AmyH
        
        If and when it is removed, it will be because of politics not science. Just as the compilers of the DSM tried to remove pedophilia as a disorder in the DSM-5 (a move they back peddled on due to public outcry). Mentally ill people are not served by political changes that encourage them to take cancer-causing hormones that leave them sterile and to undergo mutilative surgery that removes healthy tissue.
      - Jeanine Martin
        
        Yes, political correctness shifts many things, that does not make it correct.
      - Mick Staton
        
        The fact that you are actually asking why I think a person who looks in the mirror and cannot process their own biological gender is suffering from mental illness shows just how far we have fallen as a society.
        
        Gender dysphoria is closely tied with body dysphoria, which is the underlying cause of anorexia and bulemia. Skinny people look in the mirror and see a fat person. Should we embrace their mental illness as well? Should healh insurance companies have to pay for stomach stapling and gastric bypass surgeries for anorexics?
      - David Dickinson
        
        All trans people are mentally ill and need psychiatric help and not a surgeon’s scalpel.
        
        I have sympathy for these people. I have contempt for those like yourself that enable the mental illness instead of speaking truth in love to people that very badly need help.
      - Chris
        
        Same question. What’s the basis for your conclusion?
      - David Dickinson
        
        What you are asking is for me to prove is that people born as male are men and people born female are women. Since time immemorial that would have simply been accepted true and no proof would be needed. We now live in an age where people are so deceived, such as you Chris, that even the most basic truths are rejected.
        
        If you seek to mutilate yourself, you are not mentally stable.
      - Chris
        
        We know that transgenderism manifests as a belief that the person was born with the wrong body. This seems plausible, as gender is the result of a single chromosome and the relationship between DNA and brain chemistry is not yet well understood.
        
        I’m not asking you to prove that people born male are men. I’m asking you to point to scientific evidence relating to the cause and treatment of transgenderism. Why do people feel this way? Can it be treated? How is it harmful?
        
        To take Mick’s example of anorexia, anorexia is harmful because it causes people to starve themselves. It’s also clearly correlated with feelings of inadequacy and anxiety, and has even been shown to be triggered by media portrayals of thin people as attractive. It’s also treatable.
        
        I’d like to see you or Mick dig as deeply into transgenderism before dismissing it is obviously an illness.
      - David Dickinson
        
        Cause: Often sexually abused.
        Treatment: Don’t cut off your johnson.
        Harmful: Absolutely. Very high rates of unhappiness and suicide.
        
        I’d like you to wake up to the harm you are enabling by attempting to give transgenderism some legitimacy. It’s bad and shouldn’t be encouraged. These people are screwing up their bodies for the rest of their lives. They need help. Help them get that help, but don’t encourage their illness.
      - Jeanine Martin
        
        Years ago I knew a man who thought he was a woman. He had the surgery and found out he still wanted to sleep with women so he was a lesbian transgender. Was he happy? Nope. He tried suicide over and over. I lost track of him so I don’t know if he was ever successful. I hope not and hope he got the mental health he so desperately needed.
      - Jeanine Martin
        
        Yes, it’s a belief, it is not reality, by definition.
      - Edward N Virginia
        
        GAG, PUKE!. All Christians know that BELIEF reveals REALITY!
      - Warmac9999
        
        Science is based on observation and reason. You deny both observation and reason. Thus, it can be concluded that science does not inform your opinion in this area.
      - Edward N Virginia
        
        MEDICINE does not TELL PEOPLE what to think. Medicine reveals the best evidence from science and guides people to conclude what care plan will be best for them in their situation. YOUR ARCHAIC PATERNALISTIC notion of medicine is EXACTLY WHAT YOU declared to be why you didn’t like Affordable Care Act: DOCTOR DEATH PANELS TELLING YOU WHAT TO DO. YOU are a DEATH PANEL.
      - Jeanine Martin
        
        He believes there is something grossly wrong with his body, much like anorexics. Changing the outside won’t fix what’s going on in his mind.
      - Edward N Virginia
        
        AND WHERE IS THE GOVERNMENT PROGRAM TO PAY FOR THAT THERAPY PR TREATMENT SINCE YOU ARE STATING IT TO BE A POLICY LEVEL (GOVERNMENT COERCED, REQUIRED) INITIATIVE?!
      - John Farrell
        
        So your prescription is for R’s move on from homophobia to ridiculing someone with a medical condition, whether its a mental health issue or a physical condition?
        
        Actually, there is a medical condition where people’s brain and body don’t match regarding gender. Their DNA can have anomalies. Sometime, their genitals are missing or deformed. I don’t know the details in Danica’s case and don’t want to. I trust and respect her and her doctors judgements.
        
        You would do well to do the same.
      - Mick Staton
        
        It is not ridiculing someone to call them by their correct gender, just like refusing to accept abnormal sexual attraction and deviant sexual behavior does not constitute fear of that practice. The usage of terms like you are using is merely an attempt on your part to put people on the other side of the debate on the defensive, and to try and get bystanders reading this to feel sympathetic to your side.
        
        Homosexuality used to be listed in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (just like gender dysphoria is now) until it was removed because of political pressure, not by any scientific data. Contrary to popular belief, there is no gay gene. People are not born gay, just like they aren’t born with gender dysphoria. If people choose to practice a homosexual lifestyle that is between them and God, but to pretend that it is normal and then attempt to use the government to force people into accepting your point of view is destructive both to the culture and freedom. Furthermore, when you celebrate gender dysphoria instead of acknowledging the truth about the condition, you are condemning people to live with their illness instead of trying to get them help.
        
        You say you trust and respect his judgement. I will ask the same question of you that others here are dodging. Should we trust and respect the judgment of anorexics and bulemics who suffer from a very similar illness? Should health insurance companies be forced to pay for gastric bypass surgeries for anorexics, so we can celebrate them?
      - John Farrell
        
        Originally placing homosexuality into the DSM was the political decision.
        
        It used to be thought that domineering mothers caused homosexuality. Scientist disproved that theory.
        
        The science has now clearly demonstrated that sexuality is a spectrum and that people are “born that way.”
        
        And there isn’t a “gay” gene or “tall” gene or a “blue-eyed” gene or a “cancer” gene. Scientists are still trying to understand how the genes interact with each other and with the environment to produce the human condition.
        
        I’m not just trusting Danica alone but the doctors who are treating her. Just like I trust the doctors who diagnosed my high school classmate with anorexia. And I celebrate both of their survival and recovery every day! Thank God!
      - Mick Staton
        
        “The science has now clearly demonstrates that sexuality is a spectrum and that people are “born that way.””
        
        Science demonstrates no such thing. Less than 3% of the population falls into the LGBTQ category. That is not a spectrum. That is a deviation from the norm. Even Dr. Lisa Diamond, a noted psychologist (and lesbian) declared that the “born that way and can’t change” argument is a myth.
        
        As for gender dysphoria, where do you think people go to get diagnosed? They go to a psychologist. Just like anorexia is a psychological diagnosis. When your high school classmate was diagnosed with anorexia, did you celebrate their situation and encourage them to continue starving themselves, or did you urge them to get treatment and start eating healthy? If the latter, then why would you urge people like Dan to indulge their condition, or even encourage then to have surgery to mutilate their body (and increase their risk of suicide 20 fold)?
      - John Farrell
        
        I admire you frank analysis of last week’s election and your service on the Board of Supervisors.
        
        My classmate was treated by an internist, a gastroenterologist and a psychologist, among others.
        
        Transgendered people are treated by several doctors, also.
        
        The numbers I read for LGBTQ in the scientific literature are above 10% of the population. One scientist does not reflect the scientific consensus which is that people who are hetero can have attractions to the same sex and vice versa. For some those attractions are stronger than others. Thus, the spectrum. Atypical conditions are not deviant and describing them as such is demeaning.
        
        Ridiculing people for an immutable characteristic doesn’t advance the cause of the GOP.
      - AmyH
        
        It is not 10% of the population. According to the CDC it is less than 3%.
      - Mick Staton
        
        The 10% number is a myth that was discredited a long time ago. The CDC puts the number at between 1 and 3% of the population. The statement that gays are not born that way is not just one scientist’s opinion. Dr. Diamond is the co-editor-in-chief of the American Psychological Association’s “Handbook of Sexuality and Psychology.” She is quoting what the handbook states.
        
        You never answered my question. Did you encourage your anorexic friend to seek treatment, or did you encourage them to embrace their anorexia and keep dieting? Why do you insist that people suffering from gender dysphoria embrace their illness and their symptoms? You wouldn’t have done that to your friend, would you?
        
        To me, your enabling is far crueler than telling someone the truth, which is that they are suffering from an illness and need to seek treatment.
      - AmyH
        
        Being gay is not an immutable, inborn characteristic. You know what is such a characteristic? Your sex. Unless you are one of the .006% of the population that has a genuine medical birth defect where your sexual organs don’t match your DNA (or you have sexual organs for both sexes), you are born male or female. You don’t get to choose and you don’t get to change. Even surgery cannot change you from a male to a female… it just makes you a mutilated male.
      - Edward N Virginia
        
        YOU HAVE UTTERLY IGNORED the REALITY of INTERSEX births! WOW! Do you also believe that women who float are witches?
      - AmyH
        
        And you Edward have utterly ignored the content of the comment you are answering.
      - Edward N Virginia
        
        surely not ‘utterly’ …
      - Mark
        
        10% figure is derived from the research of the pervert Kinsey.
      - Warmac9999
        
        The left has to suppress truth. Virtually any time you get into the LGBTQ discussion, the facts don’t matter in the least. By the way, the CDC has it about 2% – 2.5% of males and 1.5% of females which equates to slightly less than 2% of the population because there are more women than men.
        
        2% of the USA population is roughly 6.6 million people. The transgender population is a tiny fraction of that number with estimate of about 650,000 (of which about 40% have tried to commit suicide)
        
        In other words, the entire USA population has been treated to utter sexual and gender chaos to appease 1 in 50 people.
      - AmyH
        
        There are genes that dictate you will be tall (given proper nutrition). There are genes that dictate whether you will have blue eyes. There are genes that make it more likely that you will get certain types of cancer if you have them. Science has not proved at all that people are “born that way” as you claim.
        
        Get back to us on Dan’s “treatment” when you also support treatment for your anorexic friend that includes loudly proclaiming that, yes indeed, she is as fat as she imagines herself to be and therefore she is right to diet, diet, diet.
      - Edward N Virginia
        
        Ah, whenever a STUPID REPUBLICAN ARGUMENT about ‘needing therapy’ or ‘requiring treatment’ comes forward we must quickly ask: AND WHERE IS THE GOVERNMENT PROGRAM TO PAY FOR THAT SINCE YOU ARE STATING IT TO BE A POLICY LEVEL (GOVERNMENT COERCED, REQUIRED) INITIATIVE?!
      - Jeanine Martin
        
        Please point to a doctor who orders genital mutilation rather than mental health counseling to accept yourself as you are.
      - AmyH
        
        Those brain studies have about as much actual truth in them as studies that purport to be able to tell who will fall into criminality by looking at brain scans… that is to say none at all from a statistical stand point.
    - AmyH
      
      No… basic respect demands that HE not try and force the general public to coddle him in his delusion.
      - Chris
        
        How does “coddling” her impact you in any way whatsoever?
      - AmyH
        
        Reality matters and he should have no expectation that anyone would engage in a folie a deux with him. More importantly, non-mentally ill people (presumably such as you) have no right to demand that in the name of your notion of civility as you are not doing him any favors.
      - Edward N Virginia
        
        Is it a foil a deus for Republicans to support a KNOWN child sexual predator, Moore? He is KNOWN by various shopping malls and storekeepers to BE A PREDATOR.
      - AmyH
        
        Thou shalt not bear false witness, Edward.
      - Edward N Virginia
        
        Sorry for you, but the mall and the shop owners ARE THE WITNESSES.
      - AmyH
        
        You are lying.
    - Jeanine Martin
      
      Seriously? If I call myself the Queen of Virginia, will you go along and call me that too? It’s not about respect, it’s about not encouraging a mental problem which will never be solved by pretending to be something you are not.
      - John Massoud
        
        Hiya Queen
John Jones

If Trump is to blame for recent Va GOP state losses, how do you accounting for the Dems victories before he was even a candidate?
- Chris
  
  Not sure which ones you’re referring to. But:
  
  2016: Democrats turn out in Presidential elections.
  
  2014: Ed almost upset Warner with a terrific race.
  
  2013: Repeat after me: Government shutdown. Something I have seen no pundit mention when discussing 2013 results this year.
  
  2012: Democrats turn out in Presidential elections.
- Kenneth Reid
  
  Good question! I think mick hits a lot of bases, but again, the demographics were working against us in statewide races prior to this election, but ed failed to follow his own advice in 2009 that helped Mcdonnell-Bolling-Cuccinelli, et. all, win big that year. I submitted a column to the Bull elephant on this.
Fist Rockbone

I’ll admit it, I was inclined to grab onto one of the reasons you debunked. Your analysis convinced me otherwise. I still believe we need some changes bottom to top in the VA GOP. After all, that is how lasting political change happens. A similar dynamic is occurring on the Left, in reaction to conditions in their representative party. The socialists are ascendant there.
- Mick Staton
  
  Yes, we do need change. We cannot continue to slide towards the center as a party while the Democrats slide farther and farther left. We need to stand for real Conservative policies that are proven to work.
  
  We just can’t be jerks about it. Politics is the art of persuasion. Our jobs is to persuade people who don’t always agree with us, or who have never thought about these things, to join us. But nobody wants to join the side that is full of loud-mouthed jerks who would rather get in a twitter flame war instead of buckling down and doing the job.
  - Fist Rockbone
    
    Eh, if you study Margaret Thatcher’s approach to dealing with the “wets” in her own party, as well as how she dealt with those in the opposition party, you might find some distinct similarities between her and Trump.
    - Jeanine Martin
      
      ‘some similarities’ but Thatcher was never a rude jerk.
      - Fist Rockbone
        
        By British standards she was an uppity woman who was acting above her class who constantly pushed the mores of politics.
      - Warmac9999
        
        You are correct. To an American she was classically British. To her peers, she was a nasty piece of work.
  - Chris
    
    Wait, the Republican party is moving towards the center? Since when? What about the Tea party?
David Dickinson

I assume the “what to do about it?” will be another post, yes?

Nobody will be able to shut Trump up. We will have to learn to deal with that. Nationally, the brashness worked for Trump. Personally, I’d rather have have Trump-Northam than Clinton-Gillespie.
- Chad Davis
  
  I agree Trump should not get off of twitter, because he should talk directly to the people without the liberal media.
  
  Mick is right though about mending his tone. He can say “H. Clinton is wrong because XYZ…” that is better than “Crooked Hillary ….”
Connie S.

*Sigh* More #NeverTrump foaming at the mouth rage at our great President. Seriously, TBE is delusional in their TDS. Ludicrous quote from article, “Trump campaigned on a platform of Conservative policies, but all we have been served since he took office is a steaming pile of establishment mush.” Umm, is getting Gorsuch on the SCOTUS a, “steaming pile of establishment mush”? Is withdrawing us from the disastrous Paris Climate Accords another, “steaming pile of establishment mush”? How about signing the Mexico City ban (against money for foreign abortions) or returning many MILLIONS of federal land-grabs back to the states – are those, “steaming pile of establishment mush”? And don’t forget our gross domestic product is now at 3.1% – our economy is booming. Unemployment is down to 4.1%. His China trip is great for America. Etc, etc. I don’t have all day to list our President’s wonderful accomplishments since he’s been in office, but here’s a good list from this summer – https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/07/20/president-donald-j-trumps-six-months-america-first

By any and all measures – Donald Trump’s presidency is a resounding success. And it’s just KILLING you #NeverTrumpers, eh.

At least you aren’t even pretending to be objective – describing Trump as, “the orange-hued Liberal Democrat residing in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.” LOL
- Chris
  
  Hahahaha, nice one. Economic growth stats that Republicans slammed as lousy and cooked for the last three years are suddenly great.
  
  Millions of acres have been returned to the states – which ones?
  
  What have we gained by exiting Paris? As in, show me something that’s different now or will be different in three years before the next election.
  
  Keep drinking the kool aid.
  - Connie S.
    
    Answer to your question: Land is being returned in Utah, Colorado, Nevada, etc. Link for Utah – https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/constitution/item/25901-trump-orders-review-of-federal-land-grabs
    
    Go join the Democrat Party; seriously, and take The #NeverTrump/Bull Elephant with you. It is extremely troubling that this blog, which is so incredibly anathema to our REPUBLICAN President is overseen by Senior Editor, Steve Albertson, who BTW also serves on the Republican Party of Virginia. Just one more example of how the RPV is so #NeverTrump.
Chris

I’ve been sniping in the comments and realized I never posted a more general comment to say:

This is a very well researched and well written analysis.
Adam McIlwain

You wrap up your piece with the notion that “The first step in fixing a problem is admitting that you have a problem.” But earlier in your piece you say, “I honestly believe there were quite a few people who woke up Wednesday morning surprised to find they had replaced Del. Bob Marshall with a dude that likes to wear dresses and call himself a woman.”

Your problem isn’t just Trump. It’s the bigoted, and narrow-minded attitude toward a growing segment of the voting population. The “dude that likes to wear dresses” is actually Danica Roem. And she is now a State Delegate. Bob Marshall refused to debate Danica, and called himself the ‘chief homophobe’. He was long overdue to be removed from office with a 20th century mindset.

When interviewed after the election on her thoughts on Bob Marshall, Danica said: “I don’t attack my constituents. Bob is my constituent now.” That is classy and composed.

So it isn’t just Trump that is a blowhard, bigot and out of touch with the constituency. It’s guys like Bob, and writers like you, Mick. You both have problems. And maybe you can follow your own advice and admit it? Remember, nobody like a jerk.
- AmyH
  
  He is now a state delegate.
  - Adam McIlwain
    
    Danica and many other LGBTQ folks would disagree. It is jerkish. Part of the GOP problem. Blind stubbornness.
    - AmyH
      
      I, on the other hand, think it is jerkish for you to insist that we go along with Dan’s delusional thinking. I also think it is damaging to Dan in the same way it would be if we handed a scepter to someone under the delusion that she (or he) is Mary, Queen of Scots and demanded that everyone defer to the dictates of “Her Royal Highness”. Doing that would mean “Mary” was getting no treatment to integrate her (or him) into reality.
      - Jeanine Martin
        
        Excellent point. I feel sorry for Dan/Danica but I in no way want to enable his mental problems.
      - Downstater
        
        I don’t think I want to be Mary Queen of Scots, though. Didn’t she wind up getting beheaded? Maybe I’ll identify as a minority so that I can get special treatment. That would be cool. Who will tell me I am not what I think I am?
      - AmyH
        
        Yep… she was beheaded in 1587.
      - Warmac9999
        
        All you have to do is declare yourself to be a mental defective and everybody on the left tries to be sympathetic.
    - Jeanine Martin
      
      Doesn’t Dan still have his boy parts? Then he’s a man, by definition. I can dress like a man, it doesn’t make me a man.
      - Adam McIlwain
        
        Does Danica have some male parts? – yes. But clearly not all. And as such identifies as a woman. There’s more to gender than genitals. Aren’t you “lucky” that you’re fully woman, Jeanine, and have all girl parts.
        
        Full details in this article (if you care to read), but summary below:
        
        https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/01/how-science-helps-us-understand-gender-identity/
        
        Gender is an amalgamation of several elements: chromosomes (those X’s and Y’s), anatomy (internal sex organs and external genitals), hormones (relative levels of testosterone and estrogen), psychology (self-defined gender identity), and culture (socially defined gender behaviors). And sometimes people who are born with the chromosomes and genitals of one sex realize that they are transgender, meaning they have an internal gender identity that aligns with the opposite sex—or even, occasionally, with neither gender or with no gender at all.
      - Mark
        
        Even if he didn’t, he would just be a mutilated male. Genetic testing would tell the tale.
    - Downstater
      
      So if I think I am a bird, a fairy, or a tree, does that make me one? As kids, we used to pretend we were all sorts of things, and at one point, had ourselves convinced we were those. Did that make it true?
- Mick Staton
  
  It is amazing how people can be distracted by one small comment in a piece and get thrown totally off track. It’s almost like certain people have an agenda…
  
  Oh, well. I’ll play along. I can guarantee you that there are Democrats and right leaning Independents that voted for Dan last week that had no idea he suffers from gender dysphoria. I have friends in PWC who have talked with people about that very issue.
  
  Speaking the truth about a situation is not bigoted, just as the truth is an absolute defense against a slander charge. What is bigoted and narrow-minded is to insult people who don’t proscribe to your anti-science, anti-factual beliefs that revolve around nothing more than feelings.
  
  The truth is that Dan Roem is a man that like to wear dresses and call himself a woman. That doesn’t make him a woman, just like dressing up as a bird and calling himself a swan would not make him a swan. A person’s gender is one of those “truths we hold to be self-evident,” or at least it was until some people decided that truth was now going to be fluid.
  - Downstater
    
    Well said. Saw a picture of “the candidate” and it was not one of a person that looked like a woman. Huge hands, broad shoulders, Dude just didn’t look enough like a lady.
- Downstater
  
  Unfortunately, voters in N. Va would have voted for a rabid dog if it had a “D” next to its name. If it were just bob marshall, than why all the other losses in the state? Add that to the fact that outside activist money poured into Dan/Danica’s campaign by the tens of thousands just to make a gender point, while Marshall just had the paltry amounts customary for a HOD race. If you have the figures, that would be helpful.
- HaroldCh8
  
  If I examine Danicas chromosomes under an electron microscope and look at the 23rd pair, will I see an XY or an XX?
  
  Why do liberals hate science?
  - Adam McIlwain
    
    Great question Harold. But I doubt Danica would let you look at her chromosones. And a BIG HAHA Liberals hate science?! Like climate science, or evolution? Or genetics? What’s your position on those sciences?
    
    I know it’s difficult to understand, because gender identity isn’t a simple concept. It’s not binary. Yes, most men with man parts identify as male. And vice-versa for woman. But there are exceptions to the rule. Like Danica. And ignoring these exceptions (which may account up to 10% of the population for all LGBTQ voters), is not a smart political strategy for the GOP. To Mick’s original article. It was well written. And clearly thoroughly researched. But the “dude wearing a dress” comment takes away from his overall findings, and diminishes his message. And, IMO, shows the blinders may republicans have when analyzing an election after the fact.
    
    Would you agree that National Geographic is a reputable scientific publication? Because here is source that explains transgender-ism using science:
    
    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/01/how-science-helps-us-understand-gender-identity/
    
    Many of us learned in high school biology that sex chromosomes determine a baby’s sex, full stop: XX means it’s a girl; XY means it’s a boy. But on occasion, XX and XY don’t tell the whole story.
    
    Today we know that the various elements of what we consider “male” and “female” don’t always line up neatly, with all the XXs—complete with ovaries, vagina, estrogen, female gender identity, and feminine behavior—on one side and all the XYs—testes, penis, testosterone, male gender identity, and masculine behavior—on the other. It’s possible to be XX and mostly male in terms of anatomy, physiology, and psychology, just as it’s possible to be XY and mostly female.
    
    Each embryo starts out with a pair of primitive organs, the proto-gonads, that develop into male or female gonads at about six to eight weeks. Sex differentiation is usually set in motion by a gene on the Y chromosome, the SRY gene, that makes the proto-gonads turn into testes. The testes then secrete testosterone and other male hormones (collectively called androgens), and the fetus develops a prostate, scrotum, and penis. Without the SRY gene, the proto-gonads become ovaries that secrete estrogen, and the fetus develops female anatomy (uterus, vagina, and clitoris).
    
    But the SRY gene’s function isn’t always straightforward. The gene might be missing or dysfunctional, leading to an XY embryo that fails to develop male anatomy and is identified at birth as a girl. Or it might show up on the X chromosome, leading to an XX embryo that does develop male anatomy and is identified at birth as a boy.
    
    Genetic variations can occur that are unrelated to the SRY gene, such as complete androgen insensitivity syndrome (CAIS), in which an XY embryo’s cells respond minimally, if at all, to the signals of male hormones. Even though the proto-gonads become testes and the fetus produces androgens, male genitals don’t develop. The baby looks female, with a clitoris and vagina, and in most cases will grow up feeling herself to be a girl.
    
    Gender is an amalgamation of several elements: chromosomes (those X’s and Y’s), anatomy (internal sex organs and external genitals), hormones (relative levels of testosterone and estrogen), psychology (self-defined gender identity), and culture (socially defined gender behaviors). And sometimes people who are born with the chromosomes and genitals of one sex realize that they are transgender, meaning they have an internal gender identity that aligns with the opposite sex—or even, occasionally, with neither gender or with no gender at all.
- Mark
  
  *HE* is the delegate.
Jeanine Martin

Is there any real hope that Trump can, or will, stop being a jerk? He’s been this way his entire life and it seems to have worked fairly well for him. He’s been very successful in business, has great kids who adore him, and an accomplished, gorgeous wife. Why would he even think he needs to change?
- Jean Baptiste Bellegarde
  
  I’d take the jerk any day than the criminal Clinton. Even you have admitted on TBE that of all the Republican candidates Trump was the only one who could beat Clinton.
- Warmac9999
  
  The problem is that Trump doesn’t lie to you or me. He tells it straight and unvarnished. We are used to lying politicians and it is tough to get used to one that doesn’t lie.
  
  Give me the bombastic Trump truth over the subterfuge and outright lies of Obama – Remember? You can keep your doctor, you will save money, etc was all lies and yet the Democrats, and a few RINOs, are in lock step with keeping this pack of lies going to destruction.
BIGron

Funny, the modern day RINOs running Congress are the ones serving up the steaming pile of establishment mush, and they can’t even find it in themselves to get that pushed through.

Some counterpoints:

https://www.lifezette.com/polizette/trumpism-is-alive-and-well-and-virginia-proved-it/

http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2017-11-15.html
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Joseph Oddo

Very well written.
FrankUnderwoodSr

Ann Coulter looked at the numbers and came to a completely different conclusion. http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2017-11-15.html
- Warmac9999
  
  The same thing is happening in Western Europe only in a much more dangerous way. Our invaders come from Christian countries. Their invaders come from Islamic countries. But in both cases, the inherent culture of the various nations is radically changed and not for the better unless you think totalitarian socialism is better than the freedom of capitalism
Warmac9999

The leader of the party always gets the blame whether merited or not. I understand this argument but believe the issue is much deeper than Trump’s bombastic commentary. Our Republican Congress committed one of the greatest frauds on We the People since George HW Bush repudiated his “Read My Lips – No New Taxes” pledge. Had obamacare been repealed and replaced even poorly, the chicanery and related chaos that emboldened the Democrats would have been dampened. Unfortunately, the Republican Congress showed that they had outright lied about obamacare, and showed no remorse about the lie. I fear that we are headed toward the same thing with tax reform as the same bad actors – McCain, Collins, Flake, etc are still pushing the anti-Trump and anti-American pro global socialist agenda.

I do believe that Trump is beginning to moderate his tweets although he still can’t resist poking and prodding when he thinks appropriate. Personally, I think he should repeat the more success oriented tweets not just create new ones – people might not get the message the first go round but by the tenth they usually have it figured out. Whether focusing on success would work is questionable because the “fake” mainstream news organizations continue with their daily drumbeat of negativity even when success is obvious. (To me, Trump has been far more successful than I would have thought and the Congress has been far more of a failure than it should have been. It appears that Congressional Republicans prefer the minority so that they can go back home and complain. In the majority, they actually have to do something and they are stumbling around like a bunch of drunk elephants. The senate is run by a particularly odious guy in McConnell.)

Finally, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Many Republican leaders who want to stay in power are getting the message and are beginning to panic over their lack of action and how it appears to their voters. Virginia sent a message that the appearance of a poor legislative performance at the federal level is enough to encourage Democrats at the State level. Meanwhile, Trump continues to repeal the Obama disaster by using executive orders that should actually be laws. The next couple of months will tell the story about 2018 but I am not yet of the opinion that panic is merited except by the GOP establishment who is in shock at being condemned by their presumed loyal supporters. As a conservative, I am basically happy with Trump, with the rising tide of conservatives who will replace the RINOs, and with the departure of elected Republicans who are more socialist and globalist than pro-American individual freedoms.

Trump unabashedly proclaims America First, and we haven’t really had such a President since Reagan declared that America was that shining city on a hill. (By the way, the Bush presidents disgust me. We worked to get them elected and they are more comfortable with the likes of Clinton and Obama than with Trump – they have violated Reagan’s 11th commandment and they deserve condemnation along with Romney and McCain. It is particularly angering that the Bushes kept utterly silent while Obama destroyed ever element of America he could and then decided to go on an anti-Trump rant because they were “offended”.)
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