2017
The nomination of Ed Gillespie reflects a Republican Party unwilling to move too far from center. Gillespie has been a long time advocate for the Republican Party, has served as head of the RNC and RPV, and has worked closely with Republican legislators and presidents. Gillespie promises the ability to fundraise competitively and to manage a campaign staff operating at a high level. I do worry that Gillespie represents the Republican Party of the 1990’s and 2000’s, but with minimal effort, I believe he can strike all the right chords with a pro-business electorate dependent on economic growth to fuel higher federal government receipts in a time when technology and regulations are eating away at profits. Gillespie is attacked by the extreme right as being too liberal and is attacked by the extreme left as being extreme right. That places him directly in the center of the Virginia political spectrum with hundreds of thousands of moderate, ex-Democrats, who will likely be turned-off by Northam’s brazen lurch to the left.
The nomination of State Senator Jill Vogel as Lieutenant Governor reflects a socially moderate and fiscally conservative Republican Base. Senator Vogel is well educated in both the Conservative Tradition as well as the law. She understands Virginia politics, and has the skills to be an effective public speaker. Her speech at the State Convention in 2016 was the best speech, in my humble opinion. Vogel will likely do very well with women and moderate to conservative Millennials, two demographics absolutely necessary for a win in November. As Lieutenant Governor, Vogel will not be far removed from her comfort zone in the Senate. Again, like Gillespie, Vogel will not be frightening to moderates looking for a ticket they can get behind.
The nomination of John Adams for Attorney General demonstrates that the liberty-movement in Virginia is alive and well. John Adams will drag social conservatives and constitutionalists to the polls in November, where they are likely to vote for the rest of the ticket (as the hurt feelings and wounds of the primary have finally begun to fade). Adam’s only obstacle is that he was employed by McGuire Woods, a law firm many conservatives believe is an instrument of Satan and shadowy conspiracies. However, as Adams has made his way around the Commonwealth, I think conservatives will vote for the man they see before them, as opposed to voting with the fears and historical paranoia prejudiced against his former employer.
Virginia Republicans desperately need to protect their majority in the House of Delegates. This means that RPV and Republican activists need to focus in on GOTV for their delegates. I think every Republican in the State understands how devastating it would be to lose a majority in either house of the General Assembly. We need to be aggressive and focused, as the Democrats have already shown us their cards: They are going to place President Trump’s face on every Republican running in the Commonwealth. We need to embrace this and fight for every single vote. We have more to lose running away from Trump than we do in tacitly embracing him.
2018
2018 is going to tell us more about the Republican Party in Virginia than 2017. 2017 taught us that we’re pretty divided. Close races between Senators Vogel and Reeves and an even tighter race between the Prince William firebrand Corey Stewart and Ed Gillespie will play out again next year. If Corey Stewart runs, the anti-populist anti-establishmentarians will be forced to join with the establishmentarians in blocking the populist anti-establishmentarians. This has proven to be very difficult for many conservatives, who are far more anti-establishment than they are anti-populist. (I’ll work on correcting this over the coming year). That said, the Republican Establishment in Virginia needs to embrace the anti-populist conservatives – and not with rhetoric and handshakes, but with budges on policy. If not, Corey Stewart could become the face of the Republican Party in 2018 and we’ll all have to live with the consequences of that.
If the pro-primary people select a primary for 2018, then a crowded field will all but ensure Stewart a victory. A convention would all but ensure Stewart’s defeat. If defeating Stewart is an objective in 2018, then we would need to narrow the field down to Stewart and one other candidate. Two candidates proved too close just a couple weeks ago. Stewart will have only gained support between now and then. While Trump’s brand of populism has activated new voters, populism will push the moderates back to the Democrat Party and, as with the general election in 2016, we’ll lose by four or five points. We must have candidates in statewide races that can appeal to both moderates and conservatives. The math supports no other arrangement. The only way to hold back the rising tide of populism is by embracing conservative policies. 2018 will tells us whether or not this lesson was learned.
56 comments
No one plays the trumpet better than Gillespie!
Lots to discuss here, especially how the tea parties endorsed Gillespie – need examples, but the BEST speech at the 2016 convention was, without a doubt, Cynthia Dunbar. She flippled delegate votes to her as she talked.
Ok, but that speech was special. Wasn’t a part of the normal slate of speakers.
“If defeating Stewart is an objective in 2018….” – I thought the objective was to defeat Tim Kaine??
The winds of change are coming once again this time we will not let Chamber of Commerce Republicans like Cantor throw themselves in front of the storm of political justice.
2 out of s ain’t bad. How anyone can support a homewrecker for political gain is beyond me. All the money in the world can’t change the nastiness of Vogel. Silver spoon pos she is!
coming from you this means nothing – you are a terrible human being and awful neighbor. You are one out for yourself, just like Trump – do something for someone else for once
Bruce my yard is sprayed for pests, stay away. Defeating the skank of Mellon Manor, you know the 7.5 million dollar fixer upper would of been my altruistic endeavor but there are 2 many dummies who do not do their homework and voted for this $&((#$@!
I’m still trying to get over the hypocritical attitude that the moderate/establishment/left of center republicans continue to show in expecting everyone to solidify behind weak candidates like Bolling/McCain/Romney, but play games when strong conservative candidates Cuccinelli/Trump come to the forefront. The options to not vote or cross party lines will always produce catastrophic results. So, I will be supporting Ed. I just hope he takes your advice and embraces President Trump throughout this campaign. To do otherwise, would be a huge mistake and would probably alienate those of us that fully support President Trump. The vote of the “populist” wing in the last election was not the reason why Trump lost Virginia.
SBT, I find your first sentence interesting… given the TEA Party endorsement of Gillespie, are you saying they are unwilling of moving too far from the center, too?
Also, in the 2018 outlook you stated, “This has proven to be very difficult for many conservatives, who are far more anti-establishment than they are anti-populist. (I’ll work on correcting this over the coming year).” What do you mean by this? Are you working toward making conservatives more “establishment”?
Gillespie got conservative TEA Party support, but not populist Tea Party support. We need to start working together in 2018 and to compromise with one another. Otherwise the populists win.
Can you define all these different groups for us? And perhaps give us an example for each one? Thanks.
Anti-populist anti- establishment = Cruz, Paul, Lee supporters. Populist anti- establishment = Buchanan, Trump, Stewart supporters. Over generalization, but you get the gist.
Not really… The single most irritating thing you include in every one of your writings is an implicit denunciation of Trump supporters as insufficiently conservative. You call them populists, as if that is something else all together. You fail to understand that many conservatives actually support Trump with great vigor. Being a never-Trumper is not a pre-requisite of true conservatism. You continually try to speak as if you are the voice of true conservatism while you rail against “populists”. I can assure you, that you NOT more conservative than I am. I supported Reagan, Riggleman, Cruz, and yet I have no trouble whatsoever in supporting Trump and/or Stewart, because they were winners, and that doesn’t make me a “populist”. That makes me a conservative who wants to promote the best Republican on the ballot who can advance conservative causes and defeat leftists.
Yes, you and I completely disagree on this one context/situation. But we agree on most of the issues. I see no way for us to see eye to eye on the populist thing. I believe this mob mentality movement is dangerous. I really do. I’m extremely worried. But, you and I aren’t going to often disagree on candidates or policy issues. I think I’m slightly more comfortable with comprise than you because I’m more cynical, don’t believe political promises, and figure that positive change will happen methodologically and slowly.
You see a mob, and I see a vibrant political party. You see conservatives versus deplorables, and I see a re-invigorated Republican party, with the same wide panoply of people that have always made up the coalitions on the right. If you want to see a real mob, take a look at the misfits on the left, and the violence they have been using to intimidate their opposition and win elections. Republicans are still the genteel party by comparison. It is not helpful to be leading the charge against the people you deem as ‘populists’, especially when you essentially define populists as Trump and Stewart supporters.
I disagree. Throughout history we’ve seen the catastrophic consequences of well meaning popular political movements for liberty, equality, or ethnic/ religious sovereignty. You may think that Trump and Stewart can contain their movements, but I do not. I believe that when a movement is as divorced from an intellectual or moral foundation, as are the populisms of today, that the emotion that drives them is wildfire, it can spread, change direction on a dime. I don’t trust it. I don’t trust people when they are caught up in it. Populism bothers me at the most visceral and personal level. I recognize that this is subjective and that there is room for error, but you’ve got to understand that I’ll fight populism with the same emotional excitivity as the populists supporting their strong men.
Well ya know, The Tea Party formed because people were upset with the GOP and their agenda. The ‘conservative’ party players co-opted the TP, and then provided nothing but lip service to their concerns. Once the TP started falling apart many of their followers saw Trump as the only viable alternative to the Romney/McCain republicans.
Now what you have are millions of pissed off people that aren’t going to handle very well what they see as establishment Sea Island Resort republicans and their Democrat counterparts nullifying the last election. The Republicans CAUSED this impending constitutional crisis, and calling American citizens populists, deplorables, or which ever key word of the day one wishes to denigrate is not going to help solve anything. World history is full of examples of what happens when the citizens lose faith and trust in their government. The very first indicator in many of those examples is giving up on the ballot box to seek out other alternatives. Does the GOP really want to step into the abyss?
I have no idea what you are talking about. Do you think the 63 million Americans who voted for Trump are a dangerous mob? Until you can define what you mean by ‘populist’, I just can’t take anything you say about populism seriously.
The gutter?
A Mob?
No not at all, we are American Employers and Employers of Americans.
Tuck Gillespie is week there is no policy on EO24. What will Ed do?
Very valid question please refer to JLARC 427.
A man who writes but does not read knows what?
I will let policy define for myself just what or who a candidate will be.
It would be ignorant of myself to rely on a political author who will support their political parties candidate just because he or she is the nominee.
When a man joins a union , a party , associations he has done this out of free will but with these alliances he must be sure that he does not give up his free will when becoming a member.
Thus the Independent is the only true free man.
OK, so which TEA Party groups are conservative and which ones are populist? Kind of confusing knowing who is who without a program…
I guess TEA Party groups are like Republicans… just can’t assume they’re conservative.
Volunteer for a few. You’ll know real quick.
Been there, done that… absolute waste of time. Just as bad as my local Republican party… a bunch of bitter, vicious, nasty people.
Which tea party endorsed Gillespie? I must have missed that somewhere.
To be complicit is to support.
Strange….I wasn’t aware there was a tea party named “To be complicit is to support”. Where is that tea party located?
I am so sorry you are just a mere anti health insurance policy nothing more.
You notice the TEA party has no voice now that Obama is gone.
The TEA Party was beside themselves on the required mandate on ACHA, ok I with that BUT now we have a Republican Delegate Minchews HB253, so Eric it is ok for a Republican to mandate the “PURCHASE” workers comp. insurance prior to a Contractor’s license application even though Va. Law DOES NOT REQUIRES this with 2 or less employees.
Here is a fine display of Republican ineptitude ;
If this bill has ANY MERIT a
reasonable “Conservative ” would also a Va.Employment Commission Account for those said employees.
The Tea party says it fights the growth in Goverment,
What will this bill cost the Commonwealth to FORCE a man to purchase insurance for employees yet you don’t willfully broaden the base.
Labor exploitation?
I admit I know nothing about a propaganda blog, I do know Contractor law , her regulations ( that protect employees and customers), employment law and where the previous
Va. Republican Administration failed in the execution of their sworn duties.
lol this is awesome
The Virginia TEA Party Patriots Federation (VTPPF) Chairman/President has endorsed Gillespie. I take it that if the head of the organization endorses someone, he speaks for the organization.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/12/06/virginia-tea-party-endorses-former-bush-adviser-for-governor/
https://edforvirginia.com/2016/12/07/northern-virginia-conservative-leaders-endorse-ed-gillespie-governor/
http://thebullelephant.com/rick-buchanan-why-im-supporting-ed-gillespie/
Nope. It was a personal endorsement. If the organization endorses someone, it would have endorsed someone. Happy to clear that up.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/12/06/virginia-tea-party-endorses-former-bush-adviser-for-governor/
Yep. STILL a personal endorsement, even with a link.
When someone is president of something, my understanding is that their personal views are generally accepted as their organizations official views also.
How could someone get elected, or remain president if their views are not in step with those of their voters?
Breaking news, this just in: If an organization wanted to endorse someone, then that organization would do so. If said organization has not endorsed, then that organization has not endorsed. This is all very tough stuff and highly confusing, I get it.
Ok, so if the president of the Tea Party had endorsed say Hillary Clinton for Pres., you would be preaching the same sermon? It would be cool because that was a personal opinion?
If the pope personally believed in abortion, you think that would be ok because it would not be the view of the church?
You think?
I think you live nearly entirely in the world of strawman constructions. Let’s deal with events that have actually happened, mmmmkay? This isn’t hard…you just have to start by taking a deep breath and relaxing.
Well, what do your apparent desperate attempts to separate the Tea Party from Ed Gillespie tell us?
And, just a few years ago candidates were quick to claim the title of “tea party darling”. Now, is Ed making any claim of being the tea party candidate? Why not?
Something has changed.
lol @ “desperate attempts”. You are too dense to understand that a personal endorsement is not a organizational endorsement, and don’t appreciate having someone make you look stupid. I get it….its embarrassing. I really should just let you rant more.
I am sitting here laughing, you’re now doing the name calling, trying to defend the indefensible. Who is ranting? Let the readers who so far agree with me decide who is stupid and a strawman, ok?
Hey, does Ed even want the tea party endorsement?
Not name calling. Its an observation of fact. You are apparently incapable of understanding that a personal endorsement is not the same thing as an organizational endorsement. If the word “dense” to describe this hurts you deeply, simply select another synonym of your choosing.
The president of an organization loses his right to any personal endorsement when they agree to become president.
Now, the proof of that is that if that guy wasn’t president of the tea party, then nobody would really care who he endorsed.
Au contraire….what if that person was already well-known through other various organizations/membership? To be clear, the VTPPF hasn’t endorsed. Period, End of Line.
This cute little game of a non-endorsement endorsement is a crock of BS. It’s old news. Nobody should be falling for it. What are saying that the guy was to stupid to know what he was doing? Or that the people who watch him are to stupid? Or perhaps both? Aren’t you just trying to be look legal? If I had my way I’d take all these political organizations tax exempt status away. Both D and R. I’d stop the bribes in politics and put the drug addicts in jail. Instead of 3 shitters that the Dems want? I’d cut it back to just one. Let’s see how the Democrat women like the bus station men’s room.
Sigh. I’m a facts kind of guy. The organization has not endorsed. You can blather on in whatever fashion desired, but that won’t change the facts. I get that you don’t like this and it doesnt align with what you want to construct as happening.
Politically correct garbage.
See? I knew you wouldn’t like it. Facts are inconvenient at times.
Are the facts really just an end around to maintain tax exempt status?
Maybe! Perhaps you could just do some research before throwing around wild charges? Nah, that would require a level of basic honesty.
When the TEA party remains silent you ate part of the problem.
Why did Cuccinelli and McDonnell ALLOW illegal aliens to work in Va. as Unlicensed Contractors while writing a letter to DHS desiring to check the immigration status (fed job) of latinos in traffic stops.
Just political grandstanding not representing and DAMN SURE NOT ENFORCE VA. LAWS .
http://watchdog.org/202012/subcontractors-shadow-economy
After you loose in November the crying will start about illegal voters , no concern for illegal employers that allow them to live work and vote here.
Eric ,
Vote for Northam in November because Republicans and the Tea Party don’t know “anything about Executive order 24” , or broadening the base.
Fascinating. Please continue to post, so that viewers can understand what “unhinged” looks like.
Ok,
this is what reality looks like .
1) you do understand
McAuliffes EO24? ( I bet no)
2) you do understand McAuliffes 2015 DOLI/VOSHA
policy change . There is a notification to DPOR when the use of unlicensed contractors is detected?
Once again I bet NO.
3) Did you ever read Senator Bill DeSteph / Tidewater Builders Association Directors SB483?
This bill would have made these notifications illegal.
Ask the 11 member Republicans on Commerce
Committee, just what was the purpose of this,bill?
What would it cause?
4) Did you know that DPOR has no statue authority to pursue the unlicensed contractor but they do in the pursuit of the licensed contractor.
Eric,
Why does the VA. TEA Party not speak of illegal employment of illegal aliens?
I know why you guys are just Republican mouthpiece on a short leash.
thank you for continuing to post
Anything to help you pull up the rear.
Continue to post it moves to the top and all to see the RTP is far behind on illegal immigration.
How many construction workers were place on unemployment under Cuccinelli?
Remove the booby from the flag yea expense that fight you have to be joking, when DOLI is issuing violations to illegal aliens.
So what does your Corporate candidate have on policy for Employee Misclassification?
How much was outstanding in fines issued to unlicensed contractors /illegal aliens under Cucci
when McAuliffe was sworn in?
Is that the reason for the fine being given to the General/Prime Contractor? Under AG Cucci DPOR ran a surplus in 2012 yet no investigations, who had their head somewhere else? How much was that surplus?
How much did McAuliffe win by?
How much did Herring win by?
And to believe that the
NRA contributes to a flawed candidate that offers Administrative Deregulation for illegal immigration.
http://watchdog.org/202012/subcontractors-shadow-economy