Where is support for Trump coming from? According to Nate Cohen in the NY Times,
He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote. His very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats. It’s a coalition that’s concentrated in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North, according to data provided to The Upshot by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm….
Donald Trump’s support varies, but he leads across all major demographic categories.
According to the graphs on the page, Trump leads in every category of Republican leaning voters, young and old, men and women, the least educated and those with the highest education attainment but there is a pattern to his support,
But Mr. Trump’s lead is not equal among all G.O.P. groups, or across all parts of the country. His support follows a clear geographic pattern. He fares best in a broad swath of the country stretching from the Gulf Coast, up the spine of the Appalachian Mountains, to upstate New York.
Mr. Trump’s best state is West Virginia, followed by New York. Eight of Mr. Trump’s 10 best congressional districts are in New York, including several on Long Island. North Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana and South Carolina follow.
In Virginia, Trump does best in the 5th district where his support is 41% among Republican leaning voters, followed by the 9th district where his support is 39%, the 8th district where he has 38% support, and the 6th district with 37%. In the 10th district Trump stands at 35%, and the 11th district is his lowest in Virginia at 30%. See the interactive map for Trump’s support across the nation by Congressional district here.
Trumps biggest challenge is getting his base, which includes Democrats, out to vote in Republican primaries and caucuses.
Another interpretation of what Trump’s numbers mean in this excellent piece.
16 comments
Comstock I think will have a hard time getting re-elected
So let me get this straight first, your blog that positions itself as a vehicle for communicating concerns important to conservative and libertarian grassroots Republicans is touting a polling analyst with a long and proven track record as the partisan political darling of the Slate, Politico, New York Times, and MSNBC crowd, as well as, a completely Democratic Party affiliated and totally avid supporter of Barack Obama for information and interpreted analysis on the support demographics of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Did Hillary Clinton refuse to make David Brock, her personal spin manager over at Media Matters headquarters in DC and the self proclaimed scourge of the conservative media, unavailable for comment and insights. But of course there is always that paragon of national campaign analysis Civis Analyitcs whose founder and CEO Dan Wagner served as one of the chief officer’s on the 2012 Obama campaign and in fact got his start in politics as the Deputy Voter File Manager for Barack Obama during the 2008 Iowa caucuses. It’s you’re blog and you of course have every right to publish whatever you see fit, but for me I think I would file this reporting and interpretation under the general category of partisan “garbage” and hit the disposal switch. If you are driven to disseminate your information from democratic political sources I would at least go to Larry Sabato who generally attempts to maintain a degree of even handedness in his work and output. Sabato by the way has not appeared to discovered anything supporting these type of conclusions to date. I hereby call this tendency by Republicans to go to partisan Democrats to explain to them issues regarding their own Republican candidates the “Lance Priebus” insanity syndrome. It is curable.
What group of Republican’s support the Omnibus?
Establishment RINO’s on the Left. Rigell & Comstock in Virginia. Slightly more than half the 10th District GOP Board. What the heck, let’s call them all the ‘Not-Very’ Republicans.
Comstock controls that half of the 19th committee and the chair. Sad, but true.
Yes, and has cranked off a whole bunch of people about it. There was utterly no need for that. So now it’s up to the rank and file to correct upwards. I fear the law of unintended consequences — This battle may have been won, but the war is a different matter.
Exactly!
Bearing Drift, Paul Ryan, Light in his Loafers Lindsey Graham, John McCain, Mitch McConnell (who doesn’t know how to hold a rifle–his last opponent ridiculed that) Karl Rove, all the Bushes… What do those guys have in common? Big Government phony conservatism!!!
A small correction is needed in the details of the article. Two different percentages are listed for the 6th District. The first one, listed as the one with the most (41%) Trump support, is actually the 5th District.
You are correct and error has been corrected. Thank you!
I was at the Trump rally in Manassas. Many of his supporters traveled long distances to support him. One gentleman I spoke with had gotten to the entrance gate over four hours early so he could be up front. Some of the younger crowd came from Fairfax.
I was there with friends who are federal law enforcement agents. There was a cross section of folks from all ethnicities,races, and education levels.
Trump Va team turned in over 16,000 signatures. The reason why I mentioned this is because the same group of volunteers who got all those folks to sign up will be pushing out the vote as well. Over 100 volunteers attended the training session in Fairfax on a rainy weeknight.
The trump staff are very professional and driven. I know because I a, involved with the campaign. They know what they are doing.
I don’t think I agree with this data. I believe he has supporters everywhere…I believe the Cruz voters will vote for him is he gets the nomination instead of Ted.
oops if (tiny keyboard)
Trump has a lot more support in the 10th. Of course it’s not the blog-posting, jumping up and down kind of support. But there are a lot of folks in the Rank and File that quietly are backing The Donald.
I believe you, but I have yet to meet anyone in the 10th who is supporting The Donald. I’m sure they’re out there, but I don’t know them.
Very skittish, like drawing a curved line with a crook.