Where is support for Trump coming from? According to Nate Cohen in the NY Times,
He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote. His very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats. It’s a coalition that’s concentrated in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North, according to data provided to The Upshot by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm….
Donald Trump’s support varies, but he leads across all major demographic categories.
According to the graphs on the page, Trump leads in every category of Republican leaning voters, young and old, men and women, the least educated and those with the highest education attainment but there is a pattern to his support,
But Mr. Trump’s lead is not equal among all G.O.P. groups, or across all parts of the country. His support follows a clear geographic pattern. He fares best in a broad swath of the country stretching from the Gulf Coast, up the spine of the Appalachian Mountains, to upstate New York.
Mr. Trump’s best state is West Virginia, followed by New York. Eight of Mr. Trump’s 10 best congressional districts are in New York, including several on Long Island. North Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana and South Carolina follow.
In Virginia, Trump does best in the 5th district where his support is 41% among Republican leaning voters, followed by the 9th district where his support is 39%, the 8th district where he has 38% support, and the 6th district with 37%. In the 10th district Trump stands at 35%, and the 11th district is his lowest in Virginia at 30%. See the interactive map for Trump’s support across the nation by Congressional district here.
Trumps biggest challenge is getting his base, which includes Democrats, out to vote in Republican primaries and caucuses.
Another interpretation of what Trump’s numbers mean in this excellent piece.
