The Republican party celebrated its 31st Advance earlier this month. (The party rightly calls it an Advance, because the old name was Retreat, which some would interpret as losing ground and hiding from the fight.) Many questions were asked about what happened in the 2014 election and more about how we can capture the momentum for the upcoming elections.[read_more]
One question has not been asked, and it is time someone does.
“Why do Virginia voters cast their ballot for their Republican Congressman but do not vote for the Republican candidate for US Senate?” Asked differently, “why do the voters prefer their congressional candidates over their senate candidates?”
Just the mere asking this question will make some angry. But if we are going to Advance as a party, we have to look at this question. Here’s why.
We spend significant amount of time talking about:
Opening the Tent
GOTV (Getting Out The Vote)
Enticing Minorities
Engaging the youth
Energizing the base
All of these items above and many others are wonderful activities to work on. Let’s spread the message of the Republican party and the Republican Creed (found here). These are noble activities. No doubt.
But we have to figure out why voters who are already AT THE POLLS do not vote for our US Senate Candidates. We do not have to open the tent for them, they are already in it. We do not have to GOTV for them, they are at the poll. We do not have to bring minorities, youth or the base out to vote, they are already there.
Look at the numbers. And please, don’t let the facts get in the way.
2006
Sitting Senator George Allen received 1,166,277 votes state wide. Adding all of our Republican Congressional races together, 1,222,520 voters cast a ballot for their Republican Congressman. This means that 56,243 voters who cast a ballot for their Republican Congressman but did NOT vote for their Republican Senator. Why? Don’t forget, Allen lost by only 9,329 votes.
2008
Former Governor Jim Gilmore received 1,228,830 but 1,493,262 people went to the polls and voted for their Republican Congressman. That is 264,432 people who were AT THE POLLS that voted Republican for their Congressman, but did not vote for the US Senate candidate. Why?
2012
Former Governor and Senator Allen faced former Governor Tim Kaine. Allen received 91,219 fewer votes than those who voted for their Republican Congressman. They were already AT THE POLLS and made a cognitive decision to NOT vote for our nominee. Why?
2014
Ed Gillespie received 87,807 fewer votes than the Republican Congressmen. He lost by 17,727. Why did these voters decide NOT to vote for him, but they voted for their Congressman instead. It is not like they decided not to vote. They were at the polls and decided not to vote for Ed. Why?
NOTE: None of these numbers included the other candidates in the race. And they don’t need to. Even if the other candidates were not in the race, like Sarvis, these results would not change.
VOTES FOR Congressional
Year US Senate Candidate Candidates Difference
2014 Gillespie 1,055,940 1,143,747 87,807 (lost by 17,727)
2012 Allen 1,785,542 1,876,761 91,219
2008 Gilmore 1,228,830 1,493,262 264,432
2006 Allen 1,166,227 1,222,520 56,243 (lost by 9,329)
If the voters were already in the booth, we have to ask ourselves, “Why did these voters take the time, drive to the poll, vote absentee and cast their ballot for their Republican Congressional candidate, but not for their US Senate candidate?” If we had the answer to this question, we would have handily won 2 out of the last 4 US Senate races.
Let’s make sure that this doesn’t happen in 2015 for the 68 Delegate and 21 State Senate seats.
21 comments
I can tell you that I vote conservative. And if the candidate is not conservative enough, they get no vote. I am sick of voting for the party when the party has disappointed me so much. I am over it. If I don’t like them I am not helping them get the job. I voted for you Shak Hill. The other candidates didn’t cut the mustard.
These loses are not because conservatives don’t vote for our statewide candidates in my opinion, but because swing voters don’t. The same phenomenon happened in the 2013 races statewide which Shak does not mention — Ken and Mark received fewer votes that our candidates for Delegate. Our congressional and local state elected officials are better known and frankly are better liked than statewide candidates who aren’t as well known. This is because conservatives closer to the voters aren’t able to be as easily painted as boogie men by their opponents. So the swing voters are swayed by “the negative ads” run by Democrats. We would have better known candidates in my opinion if we nominated by primaries where more people would get to know our candidates. Or nominate our candidates in April giving us an additional two months to run a general election campaign. Rules and laws would need to change, but more victories would be the result in my opinion. And solid conservatives would usually be nominated in primaries as we saw in Dave Brat’s primary victory. But, back to Shak’s article, our statewide candidates lose the swing voter not the conservative voters.
Hey, Shak Hill is here to diagnose a problem that isn’t a problem, and doesn’t even offer a solution. Sounds about right.
Paul Prados is exactly right: this is a product of uncompetitive or unchallenged House races, nothing more, nothing less. The better way to judge candidates by their own merits and the votes they earned–whether that’s in a general election or at a convention specifically tailored to give underfunded and struggling candidates a “leg up”.
Well gee, maybe the voters just didn’t like Ed. It’s not like you vote the party line around here. There is no law that says you must vote Republican. There’s no party in local elections, The primary may as well be a general election. Incumbents have the run of the place, making the RPV not even a real party.
And then you wonder why the voters have no allegiance? That’s easy. In Virginia THEY ARE ALL INDEPENDENTS.
For all the talk of how much of a “symbolic victory” last month’s election was, there is some troubling data in the results. Take Chesterfield County for example. Republicans regularly won nearly 60% in the county until 2008. Mitt Romney won just over 53% in the county in 2012. In 2014 Gillespie did even worse, capturing just 52%.
The same can be said for Hanover County. Romney got over 67% of the vote but Gillespie won 64% in an off year election with low turnout.
The truth is, we are getting absolutely mauled in Northern Virginia, the Richmond Metro Area, and the Hampton Roads-Virginia Beach region. There simply aren’t enough votes in the Valley and coal country to make up for our losses in the rest of the state. We need a new approach…I just don’t know specifically what that should be.
“Let’s make sure that this doesn’t happen in 2015 for the 68 Delegate and 21 State Senate seats.”
The overwhelming majority of these seats are safe seats. Nearly all the Republican house seats are safe. The State level democrats are not competent enough to put up candidates in these Safe R districts. Republican house members will run up the numbers because there is no opposition. In the contested senate seats there will be this perceived dropoff in Republican voters.
“Why did these voters take the time, drive to the poll, vote absentee and cast their ballot for their Republican Congressional candidate, but not for their US Senate candidate?”
The reason they vote for an R delegate and a D Senator (or no Senator) is a result of the voter being a casual voter who may like their incumbent house member (or simply see no one else on the ballot). The mystery is how to get a person willing to pull a lever for an R to pull more R levers. I regret that the answer may not be pleasing to the conservative base.
I am not overly concerned about this because Bob Goodlatte will probably hold hearings, and he’ll figure out the problem, although this particular issue may have to take seat to Bob’s hearings on executive delays of ObamaCare, last summer’s illegals invasion, the President’s amnesty declaration, and rapprochement with Cuba. But Bob’s on it.
FWIW, Gillespie lost Montgomery County, which Mitt Romney and Ken Cuccinelli won in their elections. Montgomery was listed as one of those “must win” counties in some article on Virginia statewide politics.
There are so many factors that go into ticket splitting and undervoting that this can not be simplified by simply looking at votes for congressional Republicans at the federal level.
2008 and 2012 are heavily overshadowed by the presidential races.
2012 Mitt Romney receives ~55,000 fewer votes than congressional Republicans.
2012 Tim Kaine receives ~40,000 more votes than Barack Obama
2008 Jim Gilmore receives ~500,000 fewer votes than mushy John McCain
2008 Mark Warner outperforms Barack Obama by ~400,000 votes
In 2014 There was no Democratic candidate in the 9th and the 6th congressional districts resulting in larger Republican Votes at the Congressional level (and no Republican challenger in the 3rd).
In 2006 there was was no Democratic candidate in the 4th and the 6th congressional districts resulting in larger Republican Votes at the Congressional level (and no Republican challenger in the 3rd).
Moreover, our Republican congressional candidates are, by and large, substantially benefiting from incumbency. In 2014 Mark Warner benefited from incumbency.
Gillespie nearly pulled it out, and his loss had nothing to do with people who liked their congressional candidate but disliked Gillespie. The difference in votes can be completely accounted for in the districts with no major party opposition, with a dash of incumbent advantage.
I’m not sure I understand your last paragraph’s conclusion. If you see my comment below to Rocinante – if you compare Republican votes only, in ONLY those House Districts with a Republican candidate on the ballot and compare that vote count to the statewide Republican candidate (in this case Gillespie) as I did, out pops the split votes. I grant I may be using an incorrect methodology but it seems on the surface to be comparing apples to apples. I fail to see how having “no major party opposition” (which was not the case in any of the northern districts I looked at) or having a dash of incumbent advantage (?) would result in people splitting a vote. I grant I may be missing the whole point but it continues to puzzle me.
LW
For 2014 if you are looking at the precinct level in, for example, the 11th Congressional District which was a contested house seat that was not an open race, with a democrat incumbent, you are definitely comparing apples to apples. If you find sufficient votes for Scholte that were missing for Gillespie to overturn the results then Shak Hills points have validity for the 2014 election.
Incumbent advantage comes into play for Wittman, Rigell, Forbes, and Hurt who will all have people voting for them as the known quantity, and taking a pass on Gillespie as an unknown quantity.
For major party opposition, lack of opposition means that when the voter shows up to vote for Warner, they may simply pull the lever for their known local Congressman before leaving the voting booth.
Paul….I am not getting your logic here. One would think that if Republican congressional candidates ran in uncontested races, they would get LESS votes than the competitive Senate race, right? For example, if I were somewhat bland about my GOP congressman, who was running unopposed, I would be more likely to show up to pull the lever for the Senate candidate and not the congressman.
Mark
The voters are showing up to vote for Warner in the Senate race. They vote for the incumbent Republican as an afterthought. This can be seen in the 9th Cong. District where there was no Dem opposition. 171,017 votes were cast in the senate race. 156,877 votes were cast in the Congressional race. ~15,000 people did not bother to vote in the Congressional race.
For the Senate race, Gillespie received ~16,000 fewer votes than Griffith, in my opinion most of those 16,000 votes were casual votes for which the voter might just as soon not vote but did not want to leave a blank on the ballot.
Hi Shak! Good to hear from you again. I can offer two possible reasons. First, our senatorial candidates come under relentless attack statewide by Big Democratic Smear Money, and our congressional candidates not so much. Democratic Big Money donors apply their funds most effectively – they cannot win in many of these districts, so they concentrate on the Senate. Second, while our eight GOP House reps can play to their mostly conservative constituencies and give the base a cause to come out to vote, our senatorial candidates have been convinced by the consulting class to softpedal conservatism. The result, unfortunately, is a relative bland candidate (Exhibit A, Ed Gillespie), who simply do not give enough conservatives a cause to vote for him, even though they were there at the polls.
I’ve come to the belief that in many precincts some Republicans after voting in the recent House races simply walked away from Ed Gillespie but it seems from very cursory analysis this might have been more common in the less conservative based Districts centered around Northern Virginia and the Tidewater where you would think he’d have had more appeal so I likely have missed something.
Thank you Shak for this information. What I do not understand is where are the votes going? Are the votes cast for Representative and just not cast for Senate or are the Senate votes going to the Democrats? It may be impossible to know but I find these stats mystifying.
I am a precinct captain. Congressman Rob Wittman and Ed Gillespie each won in Ellis precinct of PWC’s Cole Magisterial District. Also, AG Ken Cuccinelli won in Ellis. What happens if voters simply can’t bring themselves to “pull the lever” for the nominee? From what I’ve observed, voters do indeed check in at the polls, but some flee without casting a vote at all — for anyone. My husband says this may have happened with Romney/Ryan. Voters checked in, voted for whoever else was on the ballot (such as a delegate), but passed on voting for Romney/Ryan. This may happen with me if Jeb Bush is a nominee in 2016!
Thanks for your input. I can’t imagine doing what you describe but that would explain the strangeness of the numbers. I had some bad thoughts about Jeb myself but I didn’t think of the described alternative.
Answer: Because the congressional candidate district is not the same.
Senator is a ‘supercongressman’ that sees the state as a single district, and thus caters to the population concentrations.
There is only one reason that Mark Warner got re-elected, he got a few more votes than Ed.
There are a number of reasons why this happened, but I think the first and foremost was that his nominee opponent and associated ‘republicans’ failed to rally around and support the nominee in sufficient numbers to win.
If you only compare the aggregate vote in those districts where Republican House seats were in play against the vote for the statewide seat in those SAME districts you are comparing apples to apples I believe. This is what I think was done and to confirm this in my own mind (I just didn’t understand the Gillespie split votes) I did an unscientific vote count mapping one boring afternoon on several NoVA Districts once the vote count was finalized. Sure enough looking only at the Republican votes Gillespie may well have lost the race on the Republican vote splitting in the Northern Virginia districts. As Mr. Hill states these individuals were in the precincts voted for the Republican House candidate but walked out the door either voting for Warner, Sarvis (does not appear to be the case) or NA. Something very strange is going on here and I haven’t seen a good explanation to date on what this behavior is about.
I think our future Senate candidates need to better tie themselves to the rest of the ticket, particularly congressional races. Thanks to several of our wonderful House members such as Brat and incoming Congresswoman Comstock, being able to connect our House and Senate candidates together on the campaign trail will more than likely encourage voters to support both of them rather than neither.
Just saw the thumbnail of this article and I have to say that as a resident of Culpeper I absolutely do not want to be moved out of the 7th District at all. I like my Congressman Dave Brat and I’d like for him to remain as my Congressman until redistricting in 2020.