Ebola spreads in U.S., time to second guess assurances from the CDC?

A second patient has contracted ebola on American soil and developed symptoms within 24 hours of flying on a commercial Airline.  CDC says this should not have happened…[read_more]

Transmission on American soil has occurred

When Thomas Eric Duncan was diagnosed two weeks ago, Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the CDC said “[I] have no doubt that we will control this . . . importation of ebola so that it does not spread widely in this country.”

I pointed out then that the authorities knew they had gaps in information and purposefully obfuscated the fact that they did not know.

“1. No one is certain when Duncan started developing symptoms. 2. No one is certain of all the people Duncan was in contact with after contracting symptoms…”

Moving to today:  Mr. Duncan has passed away.  75 healthcare workers in Dallas are being monitored.  Two nurses that had contact with Duncan have started exhibiting symptoms.  Some of the remaining contacts may yet develop symptoms.

The second nurse to test positive was on a commercial flight back from Ohio less than 24 hours before developing symptoms.  Dr. Frieden said “she should not have traveled on a commercial airline.” (emphasis added)  He went on to say that “we will ensure that no other individual who is being monitored . . . undergoes travel in any way other than controlled movements.”

Going back two weeks, Dr. Frieden assured the American public that he is confident that we would not have a widespread outbreak of ebola in America.  This of course depends on the definition of “widespread.”

Healthy skepticism v. fear mongering

The feds make claims that we are to accept at face value yet the following warrants continued healthy skepticism.

Claim: Ebola does not engage in airborne transmission.  (probably true)

Counterpoint: Infectious disease experts have expressed concerns about the possibility of airborne transmission.

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Claim: Ebola can not be transmitted by asymptomatic patients.

Counterpoint: In an article published by the NIH, asymptomatic transmission was acknowledged as a possibility, although not a significant source of transmission.  Just like any virus, the disease builds within an individual until the body’s immune response starts exhibiting symptoms.  A common virus can be carried and transmitted by far more people than are exhibiting symptoms.  There is nothing to suggest that ebola does not build up within the body before symptoms are exhibited.  During this buildup phase transmission is highly unlikely, but logically it is impossible to say it can not happen.

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Claim: The passengers on the plane with an asymptomatic Mr. Duncan were not in danger of contracting infection, so they were not contacted by the CDC.

Counterpoint:  The passengers on the plane with the most recent asymptomatic sufferer of ebola are all being interviewed by the CDC.

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Claim:  We have identified the people Mr. Duncan was in contact with that may have been exposed.

Counterpoint: Mr. Duncan lied about exposure to get out of Liberia.  The news media had to discover Mr. Duncan’s background.  Contact tracing protocol acknowledges inherent gaps.

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Claim: We can not shut down commercial flights to and from the United States and ebola outbreak countries without causing the spread of ebola in Africa.

Counterpoint: Huh?

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Claim:  This is like all the other outbreaks of ebola and all the standard rules, protocols, and relief efforts apply.

Counterpoint: This epidemic is approximately 10 times worse than the second worst epidemic in history.  The regular rules do not apply.

Not to fall back on Fox News, which generally spends its time producing infotainment, but Megyn Kelly hits hard on many of the CDC’s failures in this segment.

We have reason to doubt the information we are given.  If only Dr. Frieden spoke in likelihoods instead of absolutes we could have more confidence in our government.