The great predictor of elections, fivethirtyeight.com is predicting a win for Ted Cruz in delegate rich California. There are 172 delegates at stake in a winner-take-all race by district.
According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Ted Cruz has a 56% chance of winning the California primary.
They also predict a Cruz win in Wisconsin on Tuesday, with a 94% chance of a win there.
10 comments
[…] Although every delegate counts at this point, I think Rudy is being a little optimistic about New York’s role in the outcome. There’s a good reason Ted Cruz is focusing on California. […]
Videos of Trump delegates being locked out of TN GOP meeting. Slating goes nationwide?
Cruz supporters are smoking something if they think Cruz will catch up to Trump
The race will be over after Trump wins MD DE
They need not ‘catch up’, they just need to keep Trump from getting 1,237.
How can you support a candidate who thinks the three most important things for the federal government are defense, control of education and health care? And he believes women should be punished for seeking abortion if Roe V. Wade is overturned. Really?
Oh wait. You’re a democrat. Never mind.
Cruz to cruise in California.
Well I sure hope so. The amount of contributions the Super-pacs and the media have been putting into killing off Trump could have covered a large portion of this year’s deficit.
How big a win in CA? WI is winner take all, but I think CA is more by Congressional District (with a smaller prize for winning the state). How does Cruz do in urban vs. rural districts?
Urban areas have no Republicans.
Sure they do. Just not enough to make a difference.
Interesting way of looking at it. However, does each Congressional District get the same number of delegates regardless of the number of Republicans who live in it? Even the urban areas might and get some disproportional representation. From what I’ve read, Trump actually does better among urban Republicans (but not the suburban ones). Then again, they say that LA is kind of lost in a sea of suburbs, right? LOL
Of CA’s 172 GOP delegates, 159 are WTA by CD. Given there are 53 CDs, I’m guessing those delegates will be neatly divided to 3 per CD. Only going on how it’s been done in many other states, WI being the most recent. I’m far from an expert.