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Florida Prof. at HuffPo Draws Logical Fallacies in Virginia Election

written by Paul A. Prados November 5, 2015

Florida Prof. at HuffPo Draws Logical Fallacies in Virginia Election.   In other news, the sun rose in the East this morning.  A Florida professor, Michael Mcdonald (i.e. someone unfamiliar with Virginia) analyzed the voting patterns in the Sturtevant-Gecker race and concluded that had Democrats voted at the same rate of Republicans Gecker would have won.  He might be right, but his analysis is faulty as it is based on two improper presumptions.  His conclusion is that “Democrats Lose Virginia Senate Control Because They Don’t Vote.”

The first fallacy is that any person who voted for President Obama is a “Democrat.”  I’m sure there are self described independents and even Republicans who do not consider themselves Democrats who voted for Obama.  These folks have no guarantee of voting along party lines in state or local races.

Second, people who vote for Democrats are not the same as “Democrats.”  The Democrats who lost the Virginia Senate are the actual Democratic candidates and party officials.  Everyone else who normally votes Democratic did not “lose” or “win” they simply voted at a lower perceivable rate.

Was there any comparison to 2014?  What about 2013?  Professor McDonald chooses a point in time, and creates a headline grabbing discussion with some lies, damn lies, statistics to back it up.  Should we even care?

As of the time of this post Prof. McDonald’s HuffPo piece has over 6,000 Facebook likes, and almost 1500 Facebook shares…

Florida Prof. at HuffPo Draws Logical Fallacies in Virginia Election was last modified: November 5th, 2015 by Paul A. Prados
Dan GeckerGlen SturtevantHuffPoMSMFail
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Paul A. Prados

Having fallen prey to the allure of DC politics in college, Paul escaped only to make the similar judgment error of going to law school. Trained at the side of a sitting state Senator, Paul is now the owner of a law firm in Reston, Virginia. In previous years Paul built a base of support on Twitter @ppradoslaw and founded and wrote for a blog on Virginia politics and legal procedure northernvirginialawyer.blogspot.com. As a pro-life libertarian, Paul finds himself at home within the broader conservative movement, and believes in a big tent Republican Party. In May 2016 Paul was elected as Chairman of the 11th Congressional District Republican Committee. Paul resides in western Fairfax County with his wife and children.

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