In the wake of the presumptive nomination of Donald Trump, many conservatives (myself included) are understandably casting about for an alternative. People who are committed to conservative fundamentals like the rule of law, Constitutionally-limited government, and God-given individual liberties not only don’t regard the Republican Party’s nominee as a champion of those principles, but they don’t see Trump as a reliable partner on just about anything else, either.
Charles Krauthammer, as per usual, got it right:
It marks the most radical transformation of the political philosophy of a major political party in our lifetime. The Democrats continue their trajectory of ever-expansive liberalism from the New Deal through the Great Society through Obama and Clinton today. While the GOP, the nation’s conservative party, its ideology refined and crystallized by Ronald Reagan, has just gone populist.
It’s an ideological earthquake. How radical a reorientation? Said Trump last week: ‘Folks, I’m a conservative. But at this point, who cares?’
The best many of us can say about Trump, at this point, is that he’s better than Hillary Clinton. And, even assuming that’s true, it’s not saying much.
This is giving rise to a small but significant movement to launch a conservative third party or independent candidate to run against Trump and Clinton. The most high profile advocate of such an approach so far has been Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol (the “Renegade Jew” in David Horowitz’s controversial formulation in a Trumpbart piece from a few days ago). Kristol says he’s looking to give Americans a better option for President.
But that’s not terribly realistic in a historically two-party system. Like it or not, third party candidates are at a tremendous structural disadvantage, and stand very, very little chance of garnering the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Instead, what Krisol really wants is to have a candidate who can win enough of the right states to deny either Trump or Clinton an electoral college victory. In such a situation, the election would be thrown to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, where Kristol and his allies hope the chances of a conservative victory are much better.
Yes…you read that right. The hope here is not to win at the ballot box, which is next to impossible. It’s not even about some kind of belief that the GOP is already doomed, so better to launch its conservative replacement now than wait until the expected collapse in November or beyond. It’s about trusting that the House of Representatives would make a better choice than the voters.
The problem, of course, is that the House of Representatives is not a conservative institution. To the extent there is a Republican majority, we can reliably expect that the body would settle on a Republican president, most likely the Republican nominee. But an actual conservative? Not a chance.
That points to the really fundamental problem facing conservatives: we’re a minority contingent within a party that itself commands the loyalty of only a minority of the voting population. To be sure, we continue for the time being to be the dominant force in the Republican Party, but in a very real sense, Trump won his nomination not because he was conservative, but precisely because he wasn’t. Conservatives warned repeatedly—and convincingly— that Trump wasn’t a conservative, and every time we did, we unwittingly strengthened the pro-Trump case for voters looking to escape business as usual.
How did this happen to the Party of Reagan? As Dennis Prager wrote in a sobering and depressing piece entitled, “The Scariest Reason Trump Won,” our biggest problem is that the left has succeeded in its multi-generational project to distort, tarnish, or diminish what has made America a special place. When the schools, media, and cultural institutions (including some churches) accede to, or even help propagate, the leftist deconstruction of the American ethos, the impetus for conservatism is wholly undermined. After all, if America is such a rotten place, what remains that is worth conserving?
Just 20 years ago, memories of the Cold War were still fresh in our minds. There was an obvious and stark contrast between the Soviet Empire, and what it meant for the people imprisoned by it, and the Western alternative best embodied by the American system. We did not doubt our righteousness, nor that our prosperity was rooted in our freedom just as surely as communist poverty was an inevitable result of authoritarian government.
No longer. In their march through the institutions (primary education, higher education, courts, and institutions of culture and media), the left has gained an incredible amount of control over the interior monologue of the American mind. As a result, relatively few Americans understand what America is, beyond a conception of their countrymen as a vast rabble of fat, Bible-toting, racist rednecks whose shared values were built on centuries of violence, forced ignorance, and oppression. (Google the term “Murica” if you want a first-hand taste of how young people are taught to sneer at any display of love of one’s country). What was once a self-evident truth is now a sarcastic punch line for leftist comedians on late night cable television.
We’re now at a point in history where a major presidential candidate is greeted by adoring mobs of ill-informed voters who don’t bat an eye at the fact that he self-identifies as an anti-capitalist and socialist, and honeymooned in the Soviet Union.
So why do I say a conservative third party is a futile effort?
Because we’re a minority, and we don’t have a British-style parliamentary democracy where a minority party still has a chance of having a seat at the table (i.e., through formation of a coalition with one or more other parties when no single party has a majority). Instead, we have a winner-take-all election of the executive, even if that winner merely gains a plurality of the popular vote. In this system, all that a conservative third party would do is split the right-leaning vote in a way that ensures the leftist candidate becomes president.
Consequently, conservatives need to build our coalitions within one of the two major parties. For now, and for the foreseeable future, that party is still the GOP.
Longer term, for our principles and ideals to survive, conservatives must do a better job of fighting back against the leftist tide in academia, the courts, and popular culture. I don’t have all the answers for how we accomplish this, which could be the topic of dozens of future posts, but it is not an exaggeration to say such an effort is an existential imperative.
In the meantime, our fight is still to improve the Republican Party as a vehicle for the advancement of conservative ideals. To all of my friends who have quit the Republican Party because of our current nominee, I understand your anger and disillusionment, and agree that his nomination makes conservatives’ jobs much harder. But just because one of our guys didn’t win doesn’t mean there aren’t still important battles to be fought within the Party, and against the Democrats.
I am among those who choose to not lay down arms, but to instead keep up the fight.
45 comments
Good article and analysis. Conservatives are by nature principal driven and maybe even idealistic in some ways, though that’s a negative word to many. But we do want to nation to see there are some things that are very bad and some things that are clearly good. And the good things, such as basic rights (as recognized in the Constitution), are God-given and not benevolently bestowed by government. Preserving this sacred construct is elemental to us, but we also are best served by allowing for pragmatic positions to be explored and acted upon when appropriate. After all we do have to face reality and keep standing so we can persevere through a setback and continue our fight from the strongest position we can attain presently.
Kristol and the rest of the neocons did a great job of undoing the gains made by Reagan. Him being a political enemy of Trump just makes me more eager to vote for DJT in November.
This all goes back to the basic argument “… but, but, if we don’t come together, Democrats!”
Frankly, I don’t care for the “because Democrats” argument. At all.
If we’re conservatives, then lets be conservative first and let everything else fall where it may.
We aren’t the only people who deal with this kind of issue. Progressives in the Democratic party are marginalized by their own party and made to “play ball” by Democrats using whatever leverage they have – often that is by saying, “.. but, but, if we don’t come together, Republicans!”. So how would you feel about Progressives if they caved and said, oh, well, you know, Democrats are right, we should give up our crusade and go with the flow, vote Clinton, give up this whole idea of Sanders, and get on with our lives. I think most people would lose total respect for Progressives if they did that. We may not agree with Progressives on issues, but at least they care, I think most people, even ones who completely disagree with Progressives on everything, at least respect the fact that Progressives are thoughtful, serious people who are working to move forward towards what they consider important. Moreover, by doing that, Progressives have become the heart and soul of the Democrat party, they are what drives that party.
Should we expect less of conservatives ?
Talking about establishing a third party, even making attempts to do same isn’t a bad thing, even when it creates confusion and chaos within the Republican party. Those are the kinds of things that force the Republican party to move to conservative positions, to represent what conservatives believe in, and to work to goals conservatives think are important. Left to their own, establishment Republicans will just cater to money interests and “go along to get along”, because there are a lot of Republicans who don’t actually believe we can win on the issues, a lot of them are essentially apologists for the Republican party.
“Let everything fall” isn’t conservative, isn’t Republican, and isn’t sensible.
Perhaps you could compose and publicly read poem, or ‘The Plight of the Conservative’ interpretive dance.
Taking no action is taking action. You go guest your own inactivity, we’ll win in November for you.
I can’t tell if you’re trying to convince people to vote for your guy, or trying to piss people off so bad they never will.
There’s no crying in politics. (Unless you’re the former speaker) — Contemplate your navel in the other party. If you are seriously contemplating voting for anyone other than Trump… “Ooh look over there Jerry, a shiny pebble” forums like this can’t help you.
Great post, Steve. I think one of the things that need to be factored in as well is that time after time, we have Republican candidates running under the banner of “I am a conservative” and then head to Washington to do little to advance the conservative agenda.
Donald Trump comes along and has a fighter in the ring attitude and says he is a Republican but the same sitting Republicans, who publicly proclaim their party, but have abandoned the conservative principles while they are on the job, cry he isn’t. Those sitting Republicans are asking the average voter to take them on their word, not actions, but not offer the same to Trump. To the average on the street Joe, it doesn’t square and the distrust is so great, they are willing to take a chance on someone who fights.
Trump comes out swinging – something we haven’t seen in a very long time. From the “Drill Here, Drill Now” to TARP to shovel ready, to Obamacare, the meme has always been “we’ll get them next time”. We are running out of next times. I think that many voters see him as a hope to stop the tidal wave of spending and reckless legislation and they are willing to take the chance.
Trump was not my first choice but he is the presumptive nominee and I shall support him. With a potential of up to three Supremes being appointed over the next few years, control of the Senate, the House, and let’s not forget the down ticket races and ballot initiatives that will be in the mix, I won’t sit this one out.
I have been church shopping and I am astounded at the number of churches that look like gyms and do not have crosses or altars in them. How do you claim to be a Christian church and have ZERO items related to Christ in the building?
It is my understanding that if nobody gets to 270 on the first and only ballot, then Congress elects a President.
1) They are not compelled to select any of the existing or past nominees. (Paging John Boehner)
2) They caucus by states (so 26 votes wins — dunno what happens if a tie — let Eleanor Holmes Norton decide?)
3) It is the NEW, not incumbent house that votes — so your Asaunderins and Mittites will be affecting the Congressional elections of those who would vote for President.
So it just might no longer be the riddle of who Barbara would vote for in the 10th.
Yes, a third party run makes perfect political sense for Conservatives, let’s give Trump a political slow code and see if we can get Kim Kardashian instead.
My understanding is that it is now to late to get on the ballot in some states. True?
Filing deadline for Texas was May 9. That’s the biggie in this scenario.
Many of the conservatives that are anti Trump and/or will vote for Hillary, or start a third party are not conservative at all. Kristol, the Bushes, McCain, Gramnesty, Will, Krauthammer, McConnell, Ryan, and the vast majority of the 17 candidates, etc. are conservative? If they were they would act on getting smaller govt, not just give it lip service. The Republican clowns who claim they’re conservative wouldn’t have caved in to everything Obama vomited on decent Americans. The only thing these big govt neo-con Cuckservatives want to conserve is power over the American people through the banks and corporate puppeteers that own them.
I supported Cruz, but the more I hear these despicable individuals, the more I like Trump.
You cry babies lost this one; figure it out next time.
Yep. All the so called Conservatives still do not understand the term was hijacked by the communists aka Kristol, Bushes, Ryan, McInsane, Romney, and all the rest. The best thing these people could do for themselves is to quit calling themselves conservative to separate themselves from these traitors that claim to love this country when all they love is their power and money. It is better to be called a Right Winger right now than a Conservative. Conservative is a very, very bad word these days.
It used to be if you were GOP you were a conservative, that simply doesn’t hold true anymore, the Republican Creed is all that is needed. Take the Conservative out of the GOP and make the GOP the GOP again.
And what exactly is a conservative? It’s what a Republican candidate calls himself while he’s running for office. Then soon after election he drops any pretense of principles and goes along to get along.
Case in point: Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and before them Dubya Bush (remember HIS “compassionate conservative”?) Time after time we elect Republicans who claim to be conservative and avow the Republican Creed, and then they throw it all out the window.
“Oh, but Ted Cruz is a conservative”, some people say. Really? The same same Senator Cruz who (before he ran for president) wanted to let illegals stay; and wanted to increase H1-B VISAs (his wife works for Goldman Sachs, you know – big business & Silicon Valley likes all the cheap, foreign high-tech grads to depress our own grads’ wages); how about when he voted for the TPA. Or maybe it’s how he now wants the feds to meddle with homeschooling.
You may disagree, but to many of us Trump-supporters, Ted Cruz was not much of a conservative; but he sure had some of the establishment (big-business) trappings.
Look what Ken Cuccinelli did at the State Convention a couple weeks ago – up on the stage HE THREATENED us grassroots Trump supporters. Cuccinelli ended his political career then when he donned the Establishment’s elite persona. I couldn’t believe it; once upon a time I sure considered him a solid conservative.
So “conservative” and “establishment” are just words; labels that have gotten mixed up.
I no longer call myself a conservative. Electing conservatives hasn’t done this country any good. They stood around and did nothing while Obama dismantled the country, brought in gazillions of illegals, shoved Obamacare down our throats, shipped our jobs overseas, and trampled our Constitution. Oh yes, some of them kick up a fuss – think Trey Gowdy and his endless Benghazi hearings that never amount to a hill o’ beans – but that’s just for our benefit. Bread and circuses.
I’m electing Trump so he can fix some of the problems all these “conservatives” caused.
In a way I have less respect for all these “conservatives” than I do for Democrats; at least the Democrats don’t pretend.
Thus Connie demonstrates superior qualifications for higher GOP office!
Bingo. Conservatism is DEAD, only fools continue to believe it ever existed. Reminds me of high school, the old saying “You have been USED” followed w/a roar of laughter.
Connie, I agree with you on Ryan and Dubya, and so on. But when you attack Ted Cruz and Ken Cuccinelli as insufficiently conservative, you seem to narrow the list of acceptable candidates to exactly zero. What’s the point? Ted Cruz is certainly the most conservative candidate we have seen since Reagan. Ken Cuccinelli is the most conservative candidate in Virginia that I can remember.
I always vote for the most conservative candidate. I’d happily vote for either of them again if I could. But our only choice this time is Trump or Hillary, so I will definitely vote for Trump along with you.
If you want to see more conservative candidates, then you have to support them by voting for them. And if they disappoint us after getting in office, you have to run them out of town, ala Boehner. If we do that consistently, the candidates will learn that it is necessary and beneficial to uphold conservative values, and then we will get even more conservatives stepping forward. Tearing down Cruz and Cuccinelli is not helpful.
A good start would be for ALL conservatives to remove their children from public school. Either homeschool or send them to a private school that won’t indoctrinate with a pro-communist worldview. As a homeschooling family I understand, especially in this area, it’s hard to live off one income but it can be done if one is willing to adopt a thrifty lifestyle for the benefit of the children. As long as someone else with an opposing worldview has access to your children for more hours in the day than you your values and beliefs are not the ones that will endure into the next generation. I have often challenged parents with kids in the public schools to get a copy of all their books, especially history and read them cover to cover. Then head over to the school library and browse for awhile. That should be enough evidence to reconsider public schools.
I refuse to surrender, Homeschooling in this way is gathering marbles and going home. How about this instead: get active in the party, walk the walk — elect you and yours to school boards, get in and fight!
What makes you think I’m not involved in the fight?!? I am very active in the party, attend conventions, constant contact with my representatives on all levels of government, attend local meetings, etc. Also a voting member of the FCRC for the last two years. I’m involved! However, I refuse to sacrifice my children to the public school system to be brainwashed into hating America and believing in the “common good”. I’m a graduate of Lake Braddock High School in Fairfax County…you know… “the best school district” in NOVA. Or at least it was when I was a student. I remember the liberal bias then and I’m sure it’s only gotten worse now. Homeschooling is a way to contribute to conservatism by teaching your children what they WILL NOT learn in public school such as love of country and what the Constitution really says. I have in NO WAY surrendered! Oh and BTW my children attended some of the events as well in order to teach them how to be involved and stand for conservative principles as well.
The anonymity of the internet did. I’m glad you are and I welcome it completely — I think the Chairman of the Loudoun GOP might even be friendly to homeschoolers.
But He, and You, and I, are not enough. “Politics should be the part time profession of every citizen”(-Ike) and I want Home Schoolers on the Boards, School Boards, civic councils and commissions.
It no longer works to just vote in the grownups and go on with life — The old grownups are dead or doddering, WE are the new grownups and if we screw this up for our kids, we’ll be eating pillows as we sleep and/or dining on markdowns in their spare rooms when our time comes.
I agree 100% that politics should be a part time profession of every citizen. I would also add that parents must make sure they educate their children on civics everyday and make sure their kids are involved as well. The public schools do not care to teach civics anymore…only a hatred of the free market and American exceptionalism. The fact that Bernie Sanders is so popular with the college kids should be a blaring wake up call to all conservative parents with children.
We homeschooled here in NOVA and it worked out great. Have one college graduate, and another starting her Sophomore year in college.
Kudos. I have yet to meet a bad home schooled kid.
Thank you for sharing. You are an encouragement to me as we are in the very early years of homeschooling.
Blaming the left and it’s socio cultural environment and institutions is a pitiful excuse for the decline of conservatism within the GOP. Until we have the intellectually honesty to internalize and accept the fact that the failure was not about Donald Trump but practicing conservatives both inside and outside of the party structure’s total and complete failure to delivery on a single meaningful commitment regarding the improvement of the American working and middle classes’ economic and social well being then no realistic path forward will be of any consequence.
Third party, restructuring party re-affiliations, conventions vs. primaries all exercises in futility. The failure here is NOT organizational, ideological or visionary it’s plain and simple gross political ineptitude. If you wish to beat on the Trump drum from now until 2020 feel free to go right ahead. But to that drum beat you might want to try to work in one mantra of reality to what otherwise is noise. We failed and the base felt us behind in looking for solutions to their still unresolved issues. If you can’t get across that bridge you are going nowhere
Yes, a lack of relevance to your average American is another key impediment.
Quite!
And I nominate Mr. Wood for higher party office as well.
“conservatives must do a better job of fighting back against the leftist tide in academia, the courts, and popular culture.”
While correct, the statement is too broad to effect any change. I suggest everyone starts with their local school board and supervisors. Show up to meetings, find out what they are teaching, and work your local representatives. I talk to complaining conservatives all the time. But when I show up to Board meetings to cut taxes or reduce school spending I’m usually sitting by myself. Where are all you “conservatives” and what are you doing to help the cause?
One thing we clearly need is better organization. Republican is not synonymous with conservative, so we can’t count on the party organization. Liberals have the entire school system and PTOs. We’ve got nothing to counter it. You can file this under a Captain Obvious quote, but we are much too decentralized to effect actual change.
“Where are all you “conservatives” and what are you doing to help the cause?”
I agree 100%. There’s a lot of complaining and not much action. I understand we are all very busy with work, children, etc but we MUST make time to get involved even if that simply means calling your local, state and federal elected officials….often, making your voice heard. We have so much more control at the local level if we’d just make some time to attend meetings and get to know our local representatives on the various boards within the county.
Republican may not be synonymous with Conservative, but it is moreso than any other practical political vehicle. Furthermore, I would submit that most of the fuzzy-thinking Republicans in our party often show a remarkable rightward-shift when presented reasoned arguments and demographic incentives — Also, our particular flavor of GOP right-wing kookery, (while ‘not actually being a conservative but playing one in public theatre’) can benefit from the practical political pragmatism of the ‘establishment’ (I’m picturing Homer and Bart choking each other here.)
“Conservatives warned repeatedly—and convincingly— that Trump wasn’t a conservative, and every time we did, we unwittingly strengthened the pro-Trump case for voters looking to escape business as usual.”
And that was because “conservative” got hijacked by GOPe so, to the common man, conservative = GOPe. They don’t see the difference. So when conservatives were saying, “he’s not one of us” the population at large thought “wonderful!” he’s not an establishment guy so he is exactly what we want.
Many keystrokes have been spilt lately on the identity of conservatives and just what does that mean. Here is one clear instance when the lack of identity caused harm.
Boom, that’s it. Everybody is a conservative and anybody that has a different opinion is the establishment. Labels mean nothing.
Everybody gets a trophy, anybody can be a delegate. He’s a social conservative, she’s a fiscal conservative, I’m the miserable SOB Conservative who thinks they are equally useless and should be encouraged toward a TP hug club.
Conservatives have proven that we are just as lousy as being Republicans as liberals and have proven to be more politically ineffective. We have NOT educated the electorate within the party nor without — we are just as responsible as the moderates for the GOP being the mere shell of the party that we once were.
That leaves a question: how can we stop something like this in the future?
In Virginia, we could keep pushing for conventions (versus primaries), but would that be enough? And will it be enough in the other states?
Conventions would certainly help. A convention in Virginia would not have resulted in a Trump win.
Wanna bet? Problem is our open party gives anybody a badge who can put an x in a box (sometimes not even that) — would be extremely if the Republican Party adopted the ‘tyranny of the majority’ held so dear by the democratic Party
Oh wait, we already have at our “conventions.” and also at upper party machinations. However, if the nominating of the President was solely by convention, The Donald would have pwned that as well.
Not at all. I was at the State convention and the Trumpkins were clearly in the minority.
First one huh? Note the qualifier — if the State Convention was the only method of selecting the nominee, then Trump people would put down their X’s as well, and the results would match the stakes as it did statewide.
Here’s a clue: When counting snouts, more is better and leads to winning.
This is why we can’t have nice nomination processes — Good thing the grownups are taking away conventions before the party hurts itself further.
Trump fills the party vacuum — as bad as he is? As non-conservative, as non-Republican, as much as he says things that make you harrumph and wrinkle your nose — he keeps winning — he sets records for votes. He beats establishments, moderates, conservatives and faux-eligibles.
You have a hollow party, you have a hollow process, you reap what you sow.
The Kardashian effect is alive and well in politics.
Always has been, always will — it’s part of the beauty and the charm of the founders and the Constitution, and even the original tenets of the GOP — as a check to unbridled ‘Democracy,’ a tyranny of the majority that happens when the public discovers how to vote itself the treasury.