The Senate race in Virginia will be the upset race of 2014.  There. I’ve said it.  Some of you may recall I have a pretty good track record for predicting election outcomes in Virginia. [read_more]The latest New York Times/CBS News poll has the Senate race in Virginia down to single digits, 46% for Warner to Gillespie’s 37%, BUT democrats were over sampled in this poll by 10%, 49-39.  Sarvis gets a mere 1% of the vote. In addition to the major problem of over sampling democrats, 11% of respondents were still undecided and independents were breaking for Gillespie.  We know that undecideds rarely break for the guy they’ve known for decades.  If Mark Warner hasn’t won them over by now, it’s not going to happen.  Full details of the poll here.Â
More good news for Ed Gillespie, he has been endorsed by Richmond Times-Dispatch.Â
This man has reason to smile!
29 comments
Keep it up Ed. Bring in the unexpected VICTORY!
but you expect it; therefore he cannot bring it as you request
[…]  But with all my heart, I do believe we can win. For anyone who hasn’t, please take a look at The Bull Elephant’s analysis of the most recent […]
Gillespie need YOUR VOTE in SW Virginia to Offset the Liberal Democrat Government Workers in Northern Virginia. A vote for Warner is vote for Obama.
Are you saying that only Democrats work for the government and that there are no republicans that dedicate themselves to thru public good?
Give me a break. You know exactly what I was saying.
Go Ed …GO!
and keep going all the way back to your lobbying job where you can funnel funds to future felons
Republicans in Shenandoah County and Frederick County are geared up and ready to go. We’ve been knocking on doors here for over a month, and handing out voter information guides and it’s amazing to see how enthused the people of the Northern Shenandoah Valley are when it comes to voting for Ed Gillespie.
Democrats in Fairfax and Arlington are also gearing up to vote. And there are a lot more of us than there are people in Shenandoah and Frederick counties.
I’d think we’re a bit more fired up to vote than you guys are.
I know there are a lot more of us than you. There are 750,000 or so registered voters in Fairfax County, of which at least 60% vote Democratic. You do the math.
How many are legal citizens
All of them, seeing as they’re all registered to vote.
Perhaps a few of them are getting smarter after seeing their paychecks decline for the last 6 years while watching their children learn nothing in school while the taxes on their homes increase every year. People are educable and capable of change, even in Fairfax county
I think you might be right!! Go, Ed!
GO Ed!
The results of this poll are 49-39, Warner over Gillespie.
https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/battleground-tracker-2014-virginia/#wave4sen
49-39 is not the partisan breakdown but the results of the poll.
Wrongo, but thanks for playing.
Can you read? They broke out the lean Dem and lean Rep from the totals, so you have to add those back in.
49-39 – it’s the top line of the poll, AS POSTED ON THEIR OWN WEBSITE.
Seriously Jeanine, can you not read the actual report on the results of the poll, as posted by the polling group that conducted it?
Yes dear. Ed is definitely closing the gap! You do understand that is the point. right?
If you think going from 11 points down to 10 points down counts is closing the gap, then sure.
Warner will win by 11-13 points. it’s a lock. Old Republicans can whine all they want, but that’s the reality of the situation.
I think you mean that’s your “reality” of the situation. Polls aren’t absolute quantitative analysis measurements of a specific state in time they are trend lines at best and given their long history of being wildly inaccurate should be evaluated with care. I have no issue with your partisan cheerleading for Warner but if you want to be viewed credibility perhaps a little more judicious reasoning might be helpful. Warner’s lead appears to be clearly eroding, if enough to place this race in a contestable state I don’t think anyone can reliability say based on current available data.
Sounds like some folks are running scared, headed for that vast waste land of denial!
Hey Jeanine, I don’t know much about polls, but I was wondering: is it common for polls to have an oversampling? How is that usually managed? I hope you can take the time to answer my question.
Also, even if the undecideds don’t break for Warner, what makes you think they will for Gillespie?
Thanks!
What evidence do you have that the race is tightening? This latest poll shows that it isn’t. At all.
Oh, that’s right. The Comstock polls that show her up? Those are correct. The polls that show Warner up? They’re incorrect, they’re biased, they’re liberal media, they’re whatever.
…
This is certainly my impression as well…based on knocking on doors every Saturday for the past three months. Recently, in particular the enthusiasm of our voters is off the charts and to the extent that Comstock over performs her coat tails will bring Ed along. I should also say that I felt this way about Romney in 2012 and was crushed when he lost, although he carried “my” precinct very well. Don’t want “happy ears” here, but this race is really winnable by Ed.
Right on, David! And thanks for all your hard work!