As we expected, Ed Gillespie is closing the gap on Ralph Northam in the final weeks of the campaign.
In the latest Monmouth poll, Gillespie leads by one point over Northam, 48% to 47%. Last month Northam was in the lead by 5%.
The poll found the Republican nominee has gained ground on some key campaign issues, particularly in conservative and swing areas of the state. Among all Virginia voters, Gillespie is preferred over Northam on handling jobs and the economy by a 41% to 29% margin, which is slightly better than his 38% to 33% edge on this concern in September. In particular, Gillespie now has a 43% to 24% advantage on the jobs issue in Eastern Virginia, reversing a 31% to 37% deficit there last month.
Gillespie also maintains his advantage on handling crime – 40% of Virginia voters prefer the Republican and 24% choose the Democrat. Gillespie had a 35%-27% edge on this issue in September. He has enjoyed big gains on this concern in Western Virginia, where he now holds a 55% to 13% advantage over Northam. Last month, Gillespie had a smaller 41%-26% advantage on the crime issue in this region.
“In last week’s debate, Northam made a specific appeal to voters in the western part of the state on issues such as education and health care. It doesn’t appear to have worked,” said Patrick Murray (director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.)
Complete poll details here.
4 comments
Here is a Monmouth poll from11/07/16, totally wrong. i wouldn’t bet 2 cents on the accuracy of this poll. Please post polls that have had accurate results in the past.
“Please post polls that have had accurate results in the past.” Ha! Which polls are those?
The only two polls that correctly predicted Trump’s victory were the USC/LA Times poll and the IBD poll. My favorite was the USC/LA Times poll which I tracked daily, not because they typically showed better results for Trump, but because they used a better polling methodology and posted results every day, (which proved very useful to play the IEM).
Please let us know which Virginia polls you consider trustworthy for tracking the Virginia election!
Its all well and good that Gillespie is making gains in eastern and western VA, but its Northern VA that’s going to sink him. And I doubt he’s moved the needle much here.
Yes, Gillespie will lose Northern VA, Richmond and Tidewater, but he will win most other regions.
All things considered, this was a pretty good poll for Gillespie. He has definitely moved the needle. My only concern is that this poll appears to be slightly oversampling Republicans, if I’m reading it correctly (Monmouth is using “adjusted data” to correct the sample, but I don’t know the details of that). Remember, late polling for Hillary had her winning Virginia by at least 7 points. She actually won it by 5 points. If Gillespie continues to poll nearly tied, as we approach the election, I like his chances.