March 15th is being billed as the make or break day of the entire campaign for at least two, and possibly three, of the four remaining candidates in the GOP Presidential Primary. With over 360 delegates at stake, including the winner take all contests in OH and FL, could Tuesday night signal the end of the campaign, or the start of a brand new phase? With two home states on the line and decisions of where to devote precious resources, the primary jujitsu that has been taking place gives us some interesting insights into the strategies of the candidates.
For John Kasich and Marco Rubio the moves are quite simple. Win their home states or go home. Rubio’s campaign has been a roller coaster ride, starting with his declaration of Marcomentum with his third place finish in Iowa, followed by his Marcollapse on Super Tuesday. The Rubio campaign has been reduced to hoping against hope that he can overcome a nearly 20% polling deficit in Florida to Donald Trump, while many of his advisors told him to get out of the race before he gets embarrassed in his home state. A loss in Florida will end his campaign and maybe his political career.
John Kasich really has no business still being in the race. He hasn’t won a single state, and really hasn’t come close to winning a single state. Even if he were to win Ohio, it is mathematically impossible for him to secure enough delegates to win the nomination. Kasich has said that he will leave the race if he loses Ohio, and the polls are all over the place as to what will actually happen. John has spent the entire week barnstorming Ohio, but I don’t think it is going to be enough for him.
Donald Trump is using his earned media campaign to barnstorm around all the states up for grabs on March 15th, hoping to close out the primary election. By winning Ohio and Florida and grabbing that big winner-take-all delegate haul, he and many others believe that will seal the deal for his nomination.
Ted Cruz is playing a long game. After initially putting money and resources into Florida, he has pulled out and moved that money to other states like Missouri and Illinois. Contrary to the rumors that Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio are working together to stop Trump from winning as many delegates as possible, Cruz has not stopped campaigning in Ohio. The reasons for the moves may not be readily apparent, but Cruz has determined that it is better to allow Trump to win Florida and Ohio instead of Rubio and Kasich. Rubio is far enough down in the polls that it doesn’t matter if Cruz spends any money there or not, but Kasich may have a chance in Ohio, so Cruz is still playing to win there hoping he can pull off what he did in Michigan.
Why would Cruz want to hand 165 delegates to Trump? Because doing so would remove the final two competitors in the race for the “anti-Trump” vote, leaving a two man race, and in a head to head matchup Cruz beats Trump. But wouldn’t giving Trump those delegates give him an insurmountable lead? Actually no. Even if Trump were to sweep the table on March 15th, Cruz could still pass Trump and win enough delegates to secure a 1st ballot victory at the convention.
On March 15th, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, North Carolina, and Missouri will award 358 delegates to the winning candidates. All but North Carolina are winner take all states. Giving Donald Trump all the winner-take-all states on March 15th, along with the lion’s share of delegates in NC would produce a result of approximately Trump – 785, Cruz – 396.
That looks like a pretty good night for Trump, and it absolutely would be except for one important point. By winning Ohio and Florida Trump would knock both Marco Rubio and John Kasich out of the race for good leaving a true head to head matchup with Ted Cruz, and in that head-to-head matchup Cruz wins hands down. So lets see what happens next.
After March 15th, there will be 12 winner-take-all states that will award 606 delegates. In a head to head matchup, Ted Cruz easily beats Donald Trump by about 15%. All 606 of those delegates go into the Cruz column. Now the race is Cruz – 1002, Trump – 785.
There are also 8 states that will award their delegates proportionally, including West Virginia, which directly elects convention delegates on the ballot. These states total 312 delegates. Cruz should win at least a 60/40 split in those states with 50% rules in Connecticut and Utah giving Cruz all the delegates in those states. Now we are at Cruz – 1189, Trump – 910.
There are also 5 states that will arrive at the convention with all of their delegates unbound to any candidate. They are Colorado, Wyoming, Guam, American Samoa, and North Dakota. Between the 5 of them, they make up 112 delegates. Cruz only needs to secure half of those delegates, and he will reach 1239 delegates, and win the convention on a first ballot.
What can change the equation? Missouri. It is right in the heart of Cruz territory that he is already winning. It has 52 delegates. It is winner take all. If Cruz takes Missouri from Trump on March 15th, that would put Cruz at the threshold. By my calculations, he would be at 1241 (give or take), and would absolutely win on a first ballot.
There have been theories thrown around that say the best way to stop Trump would be for both Rubio and Kasich to stay in the race and keep taking friendly states from Trump. The idea here is to stop Trump from getting to 1237 and then take the nomination from him at a brokered convention. Unfortunately, that logic falls apart in the face of current trends.
So what happens if Rubio and/or Kasich stay in? Trump wins. Period.
Let’s assume for a moment that Rubio wins Florida and Kasich wins Ohio. That would reduce Trump’s delegate count on March 15th from 785 to 620. This would also mean, however, that both Rubio and Kasich would stay in the race to the bitter end, and that would split the vote in all of those winner take all states coming up. Instead of those 606 delegates going to Cruz, the vast majority would go to Trump. California alone would more than make up for the losses of Florida and Ohio.
In addition, instead of losing an average of 60% of the delegates in the proportional states, Trump would most likely win 60% of those delegates. If you give 60% of the remaining proportional delegates (187) and 75% of the remaining winner take all delegates (454) to Trump, he will walk into the convention with 1264 delegates and the nomination.
So what looks like the crowning achievement for Trump on March 15th could actually spell the end of his candidacy, because keeping Rubio and Kasich in the race to dilute the anti-Trump vote is the only thing that lets him keep winning primaries. It is the classic case of winning the battle but losing the war. It may not seem like it at the time, but Trump may actually lose by winning FL and OH.
16 comments
Hey Mick… you remind me of that cretin Karl Rove with his white board explaining on election night how Romney was going to win… ok ok… now if he take Maple Avenue on the South side of Cleveland… oh #$%$ Obama just won that street… OK OK… now if he takes the streets on the alley just of of Martin Luther King Blvd in Cincinnatti..
Trump keeps rolling amigo… but you keep on with the kung fu mind mojo…
Rubio isn’t going anywhere. That would screw up the convention plan.
End result: Romney wins.
Or Trump may very well win by winning FL and Ohio. My scenario is more likely. Top link from Drudge – “Trump Breaks 50% in National Support for the First Time” #TrumpTsunami
“After March 15th, there will be 12 winner-take-all states that will award 606 delegates. In a head to head matchup, Ted Cruz easily beats Donald Trump by about 15%. All 606 of those delegates go into the Cruz column. Now the race is Cruz – 1002, Trump – 785.” There is some “mystery math” and assumptions here that aren’t clear or plausible to me.
Great analysis.
If I understand your argument correctly and believe me it’s getting more and more difficult to do that and staying with your new jujitsu metaphor, which I take in your mind proves you can know absolute truth in that all the moves and outcomes against all other forms of primary opposition (fighting in the case of jujiysu) can be symbolized as inferior verbal arguments and the arguments of your new successful primary path for Ted Cruz (jujitsu moves) will always win out. Sort of like in jujitsu stating that “grappling” always wins even if you find yourself opposing someone in a ten foot deep swimming pool against an opponent who can hold their breath 3 minutes. This is because when you make your black and white statements, your underlying assumption is that everyone agrees on your rules, like your definition of winning a fight or a nomination. While it may be universally obvious who is the winner of a jujitsu fight since we all know what that means (assuming we are not conducting the contest in a pool), in arguments of ideas, you have to state ALL the assumptions first, then gain AGREEMENT on those assumptions, then ARGUE. You might have missed a few steps here
Were you not one of the people that was saying Trump would run the table and win every single primary contest? I honestly can’t remember.
I do know that you declared Trump would hold a commanding 450 delegate count after Super Tuesday, and he didn’t come anywhere close to that.
For arguments sake I awarded a clean sweep to Trump just to show that it is possible for Cruz to still get to 1237 in a two man race. I don’t believe he will get a sweep. I think NC will be more or less a draw, and I think Cruz will win MO, and he even has an outside shot at winning IL.
I’m sorry if you are getting confused, but since my arguments have not shifted at all, I have to assume the issue is somewhere on your end. In fact some of what is written here is repeated in a previous discussion we had on another post.
Appreciate the enlightening analysis. It seems clear that Rubio is finished after tonight, so that will be a huge help. But I’m afraid that Kasich will win Ohio and stay in for the long haul. I wonder how the jujitsu works then? It seems unlikely anyone gets a first ballot majority if Kasich stays in, but I think it’s possible Cruz could head into the convention with a delegate lead. I would expect Kasich to be strongest where Cruz is weakest (the northeast). Anyway, I want to thank you again. I get so tired of hearing people announce “if X happens, it’s over,” but they never show me the math. You’ve shown me the math, and I appreciate it.
No he actually missed that number but I believe I meant March 15 not super Tuesday as I don’t believe there actually were that many to award anyway so if I didn’t so clearly state March 15th I intended that date and I believe he was around 470 or so at that point. regardless I’m not claiming I’m some great predictor which I’m clearly not I just don’t understand the delegate realities of your Cruz position and never have including MO as a lynchpin to anything.
What Cruz will likely accomplish is denying Trump a majority and only a large plurality opening the door for a potential mess on the second ballet. I totally fail to see how Cruz will benefit in anyway way from this outcome as it’s a toss up really who the party establishment hates more Cruz or Trump. But then again if you believe Cruz will outright win the nomination with 1237 delegates come Cleveland, a situation in which you stand in a small minority, I assume you can reconcile that all you may be accomplishing is handing the nominee to the party establishment in a contested convention and the general election to Clinton. I would love to see Cruz accomplish that feat but common sense screams to me it’s not going to happen so for some time how it’s been what is the best fall back option to defeat Clinton? I’m less reconciled to a future Romney clone then you appear to be following this path.
In a previous discussion you stated the following,
“I am assuming and I believe correctly that regardless of Rubio’s Super Tuesday performance he will be staying in the race long term based on his new Republican establishment role as the 2016 Mitt Romney. So looking at the factors and being in my opinion rather generous we might be looking at something like a Trump 447, Cruz 186, Rubio 107 delegate breakout post March 1st.”
In looking at the current state of the election, I show how Cruz can still secure the nomination, even if Trump sweeps tonight. In that case, Cruz would need to secure about half of the unbound delegates that show up to the convention. That is not impossible to achieve.
The only role Missouri would play is to allow Cruz to secure the 1237 he needs to win without relying on unbound delegates. There’s nothing magical about it, but it is right in the heart of a number of states that Cruz has already either won or done very well in.
My prediction on Cruz’ path to victory, as I have said before, is to get a head to head matchup against Trump post March 15th. I have yet to see a poll where Trump beats Cruz head to head, and in that case, you are going to see state after state go to Cruz. Maybe that analysis is flawed, but only time will tell. If Rubio and/or Kasich refuse to drop out, then Trump will be the nominee, because he will get to 1237 before the convention.
Are you predicting that if Rubio drops but Kasich doesn’t (a not implausible outcome), then Trump gets the nomination?
I just don’t know, but now that Kasich has won Ohio we will find out. Kasich will most likely give Pennsylvania and Indiana to Trump, just like he cost Cruz Illinois tonight, and he will cost Cruz delegates up in the Northeast. Cruz may still win in the Midwest and West with Kasich being a non-factor.
My guess is that Kasich will take enough votes away from Cruz to give enough winner take all states to Trump to put him over the top.
Kasich doesn’t seem to be the sort to be talked into dropping out, even for the good of the country.
What have you been smoking? You along with tons of others don’t get it. I’ll explain it to you when the primary season is over. If you are an elected R in congress you have a major problem.
Ooooo, a mystery . . . .
When primary season is over…how convenient.