Guest post by RPV 10th District Chairwoman, Jo Thoburn
There has been much bantering over conventions and primaries for the last several months as we prepare to choose our next presidential candidate. Some are quite zealous about their arguments, while others think it is just an issue of finances or convenience.[read_more]
What seems to have been lost in the discourse is the sole purpose of the nominating process, which is to have Republicans select our Republican candidate for President of the United States.
We do not have party registration in Virginia. Any registered voter can vote in any government run primary. In 2008, after John McCain had locked up the Republican nomination, many Republicans voted in the Democrat primary to stop Hillary Clinton by casting a vote for Barack Obama. (If you are reading this you likely know a few.) Hillary Clinton received only 35.46% of the vote in Virginia.
Sean Hannity started the trend encouraging Republican voters to cross over and vote against Hillary with his “Stop the Hillary Express.” Rush Limbaugh followed suit with his “Operation Chaos.” Many other right-wing media hosts jumped on the bandwagon and are credited in part with keeping Hillary Clinton from receiving the Democrat nomination for President of the United States.
The Stop Hillary Express and Operation Chaos did cause chaos in the Democrat Party. I seriously doubt they have forgotten. So do we really want to open up the Republican Party process to chaos and antics from Hillary Clinton and Terry McAuliffe?
It’s a matter of revenge.
If we have an open primary where Democrats can vote, which is the only option for a government run primary, we are asking Hillary Clinton to choose our Republican nominee for President. The integrity of this process will be jeopardized.
It’s time to think strategically.
This is not American Idol where a desision is made on the results of a non-scientific, popularity poll. This is a serious matter which needs to be assessed with great consideration of the consequences.
I am embarrassed by those who whine about the hassle of having to attend a convention, who claim it’s too much trouble to raise the money, or to work on the tighter timeline which the Republican National Convention will require. Do they think our founding fathers thought it was too much of a personal inconvenience to fight the American Revolution or procure our liberties through the passage of the Constitution?
It’s time for the State Central Committee to show some courage. We must make the right choice and vote for a convention to insure the integrity of the process, even if it is unpopular or inconvenient. There is really only one choice we are making at Saturday’s State Central Committee meeting: whether the Republicans will choose our 2016 presidential nominee or if we will allow Hillary Clinton and Terry McAuliffe to choose for us.
5 comments
I might agree with the logic that a convention would dissuade Democrats from mischief-making in our nominee-selection in a State primary, except for the fact that the Democrats would be holding their (contested) primary on the same day. Yes, we do have open primaries, but if both parties are holding a state primary on the same day, voters must pick which one in which to participate.
Those who want Hillary, with go and vote for her, over Saunders and O’Mally. The same holds true for those who prefer another nominee, over Hillary.
One benefit of a State Primary, in light of our lack of registration by party, is it does help identify who our Republican voters are, as primary participation is an indicator of party affiliation. When’s the last time we had a state GOP presidential primary on the same day as the Democrats? Answer: 14 years ago. As we all know, ID’ing party affiliation is foundational to GOTV efforts, and it takes a lot of Door-to-Door to do this, absent registration by party, absent a primary voting record. Ever wonder why the Dems seem to have much better lists than we do? It is because they ALWAYS choose a primary.
The stop Hillary express may be primarily undertaken by her own party if her performance to date is any indication, no cross party voting machinations required by anyone, her convention coronation postponed perhaps permanently, this crossover voting argument is a pretty weak alarm bell argument.
Wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong.
1. The Stop Hillary Express was “paused” during the 2008 Virginia Democrat Primary. However, that did not deter Republicans from crossing over. Even Barbara Comstock voted against Hillary Clinton in 2008 Virginia Democrat Primary. (This was brought up repeatedly in her firehouse primary bid last year.) Once the suggestion had been made, people ran with it.
2. Polling usually includes all likely voters. So the Republican crossover voters and Independent voters would have been counted in the polling. There were record numbers of first time Democrat primary voters in 2008.
3. Open primary versus closed primary does make all the difference. Crossover voting is easy. You go to the polls and decide which primary you want to vote in on Election Day. Changing your party registration is a hassle. In a true closed primary, party registration would have to be changed at least 30 days before the election. This is a great deterrent for Republican crossover and independent voters to participate.
4. Yes, Virginia is a small slice of the pie. But we do matter. We are currently looking at a sixteen person field. There is no clear front runner. Even if Democrats voting in our Republican primary changed the outcome by 1%, that may be enough to change momentum on the campaigns and could certainly effect the final outcome. If we hand them them opportunity, Hillary Clinton and Terry McAuliffe are not likely to sit back and allow us to choose our nominee without interference. It would be “payback” time.
While I believe Comstock and other Republicans who say their participation in the 2008 Democrat primary was a calculated maneuver, it’s likely most crossovers were genuine supporters based on the general election results. While McCain generally kept pace with Bush’s 2004 totals across the commonwealth, he vastly underperformed in previously Republican suburbs. When you look where turnout increased most in the Democrat primary, it was in those same Republican suburbs. There’s an obvious correlation to draw.
If Virginia adopted party affiliation, the deadline to change before a primary would have to be the same as to register. Still, there’d be plenty of room for manipulation, though it’d only happen in close races for one party when there’s not a close race, or no race, for the other party.
On our primary date, 12 other states will hold their contests. Of those, 8 have open primaries. Of those, 3 have more delegates. Of those, 1 has three times more delegates than Virginia. Primary or convention, Democrats have much better opportunities elsewhere to cause mischief.
Usually, protecting vote integrity is one of the strongest reasons to have a convention. It’s not a compelling reason in a presidential nomination because there are eighteen states with open primaries and plenty with easily manipulated registration requirements. It’d be the same as locking your back door while leaving your front door and seventeen windows wide open.
There are plenty of valid, reasonable arguments in favor of conventions and this isn’t one of them.
Few problems:
1) You’re argument is predicated on a false premise. Hannity ended the “Stop Hillary Express” before Virginia’s primary and “Operation Chaos” didn’t start until after Virginia’s primary on February 12th. Also, Hannity’s efforts didn’t include asking Republicans to vote in the Democrat primary, while Rush was asking Republicans to vote for Clinton, not Obama.
2) Even if “Operation Chaos” had started before Virginia’s primary, Obama won by 270,000 votes with a margin accurately predicted by public polling, so it wouldn’t have made a difference. Further, there’s little evidence “Operation Chaos” changed the outcome in any other states.
3) Open versus closed primary doesn’t make a difference. In a closed primary, Democrats could simply change their registration, vote in the Republican primary, then change it back. Or, vice versa.
4) Since almost every other state would still be vulnerable to Democrats voting in their primaries, choosing a convention on this basis only ensures Virginia’s 1.9% of delegates are bound to a candidate without the influence of Democrats. Since 1.9% isn’t enough to secure the nomination, choosing a convention in Virginia doesn’t protect the integrity of our party’s presidential nominee.