In the 10th district we have 16 candidates running for national delegate to represent the district at the convention in July to choose our nominee for President. (One candidate, Christopher Salas has withdrawn from the race.) We will vote for three delegates and three alternates. On the first ballot at the convention our delegates will be bound to vote as Virginia voted in the primary. BUT, if no Presidential candidate gets the necessary 1,237 votes to win the nomination for President, a second vote will take place. Since our candidates will be unbound on the second and subsequent ballots, who will they each choose to support on these ballots? I have heard from most of our national delegates on their choice for a Presidential candidate on the second ballot:
Blaine P. Dunn will support Ted Cruz.
Leng Imm Ong (Jennifer) did not respond to inquiries.
Richard H. “Dick” Black will support Ted Cruz.
Patricia Phillips was a Carson supporter and will now support either Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio. She is undecided at this time.
Howard (“Howie”) R. Lind will support Donald Trump.
Mick Staton will support Ted Cruz.
Elizabeth Schultz did not respond.
John E. Jaggers will support Donald Trump.
John Stirrup replied “Should there be a second ballot, I would cast my vote for the most conservative candidate with the most viable chance of winning in November.”
Beau Correll will support Ted Cruz.
Linda Kivi Porter said “I have not personally selected a candidate at the present time. I am still researching the available candidates – listening to and learning about how they are being received and perceived by my fellow citizens-especially my fellow Virginians in the 10th.”
Anna Lee would support “anyone but Trump”. “Right now, probably Kasich, of course that depends if he is still in the race after March 15th, that goes for Rubio also.” Anna wants to vote for whoever has the best chance of beating Hillary in November.
William E. Wilkin a former supporter of Carly Fiorina now supports Marco Rubio.
Eugene Delgaudio will support Donald Trump.
Clay Chase will support Donald Trump.
Jill Cook said “I’ll vote for the Republican most likely defeat Clinton…Based on my observations and my evaluations, I believe that candidate is Marco Rubio, though Ted Cruz and John Kasich have messages that have resonated with many voters.
More on voting at the National Convention here. Information on the 10 previous brokered (contested) convention here. It’s not always a bad thing. Let’s hope it doesn’t take 36 ballots to get a nominee as it did in 1880. But hey, Garfield won the general election.
34 comments
Is there any update to this info, since Rubio has dropped out? Also, some candidates here may have made a selection since this publishing.
I’ll see what I can find out but I wouldn’t expect Rubio delegates to jump to Trump. I’ve read that Rubio is hanging on to his delegates until the convention.
My question is for each of the 10th District National Delegate Candidates,if you are elected alternate because you come in 4th, 5th or 6th, will you still attend the convention?
Love that question!
Yes
Thanks to Jeanine for the article, the candidates who responded, and the posters for their insights. As a 10th district convention delegate, I really have no clear path of whom I’ll vote for. Personally, I voted for Cruz, but Trump took the state, and Rubio took Loudoun County. I’m glad there is more time and that next Tuesday may whittle the field more.
Vote for the candidate who will support your interests in Cleveland.
That would be supporters of the Constitutionalist, Ted Cruz!
Anyone who dislikes Obamacare should be running away from John Kasich. He is probably one the the most pro-Obamacare Republicans anywhere.
And anyone who wants a sane president and nominee should run away from Trump – the worst GOP candidate in anyone’s memory. Lying, hateful, knows nothing on policy and hasn’t bothered to learn, decades-long lib, no record, BIG Democrat donor. Often spews unintelligible, content-free garbage.
Trump’s statements on disbanding NATO should scare anybody, as should his affinity for Putin. That’s a one-two punch to our national security.
Trump is conning his supporters big time – the one thing he’s expert on. Notice how he comes out with positions that are really Democrat caricatures of conservatives – positions that he thinks we want to hear because he doesn’t know conservatism. This sullies conservatives, for example, the pro-life movement. Make the fake ‘war on women’ suddenly come to life.
For those naive enough to to be pulling for this uncontrolled and uncontrollable event I find it highly amusing that they believe that any of the candidates that have spent the time, resources and effort will come out on top in this back room horse trading effort among the parties very disgruntled elders, national leadership and establishment money brokers. Think about the possibility of a nominee that has not won a single or very, very few actual Republican primary votes being placed by this process at the hear of the ticket. Then think about the likelihood of the voter base reaction and the future support of the Republican brand if this is undertaken due to a candidate falling short by one hundred or so delegates and then ask yourself the final question of who is really undertaking to destroy the Republican Party, Trump or the people who are hoping for this outcome because of Donald Trump. Donald Trump is a speed bump to the parties’ future this would be it’s demise.
You are correct that any attempt to hand the nomination to Rubio or Kasich, or some other establishment candidate they would try to throw in at the last minute, would be a disaster. However, supporting someone like Ted Cruz who has won a number of states, and with the departure of Rubio and Kasich from the race would pull even and surpass Trump in the delegate count, is a completely valid outcome for the convention.
Depends totally on what the delegate count breakout looks like at convention time, if Cruz maintains his current 100 minus delegate count deficit balance then maybe but if he comes in at more like around 50% less then Trump’s delegate count after losing both Ohio and Florida he needs to step aside as well in my opinion so we can move forward without opening a can of worms everyone will come to regret.
I am actually rooting for Trump to win OH and FL as that is the only sure way to knock Rubio and Kasich out of the race for good. After that there are over 600 delegates that are in winner take all states that would all go to Cruz as he beats Trump head to head by about 15%. That would put Cruz ahead of Trump even if Trump were to sweep OH, FL, MO, IL, and take the lion’s share of delegates in NC (which he won’t do).
If Rubio and Kasich stay in after March 15th, you won’t have to worry about a contested convention because they will split the vote enough so that Trump gets the majority of those 600 winner take all delegates and he will walk into the convention with the 1237 votes he needs to win.
If Rubio drops out and Kasich stays in there is a small chance that people recognize the futility in a Kasich vote and he goes to single digits, making it a dogfight between Cruz and Trump, and then who knows what happens.
Terrific analysis. Makes sense to me.
Well at least your scenarios are changing from pre Super Tuesday but there appear to me at least two major flaws here. The first is what has always been the questionable assumption that these last man standing votes will convert to Cruz votes at a significant high proportional rate. This has never been substantiated and some polling evidence points otherwise by seeing Trump as a valid option. The Carson vote has clearly not stampeded over to Cruz in the polls that have looked at that effect to date as was earlier predicted.
The second is more important and consistent with my earlier assumptions when we discussed this and that is the shocking failure of the Cruz candidacy in the traditional southern states and with the evangelical vote where he was expected to pad his delegate count against Trump. Texas and its border states Oklahoma and Kansas (although he out preformed here from what I was expecting) just doesn’t back fill the southeast region that SHOULD have been very target rich for Cruz. Regarding post March 15, the remaining states on the agenda are very much NOT high probably targets for Cruz centering in the northeast corridor and far west excepting perhaps West Virginia.
If both Rubio and Kasich dropped out post March 15 given the remaining nature of this delegate portfolio I very much doubt he would sweep these states to his column. Think about what your are proposing, that Cruz couldn’t carry Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi or even Virginia but he will sweep head to head with Trump,winner take all New York, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, California, Oregon, etc. He may win a state here of there particularly those with a casus base primary but sweep head to head as close to “never happen” as never happen can be. My real concern is that Cruz serves the spoiler role holding Trump slightly short of the 1237 and that triggers the contested convention that will place both these guys in the back of the bus.
Actually my scenarios have not changed at all. I said what Cruz needed to do on Super Tuesday was win his home state and at least two or three other states to remain a viable candidate and he did it. Not only that, but he gained almost as many delegates as Trump did that night, coming only 30 or so short out of over 500 delegates awarded. Since then Cruz has been dead even with Trump in delegates won, while Carson has dropped out and Rubio has faded.
I also think that we have a clear indication that the Carson vote has indeed flocked to Cruz because ever since he dropped out there has been a significant shift in the state by state results. Instead of Trump in first with Cruz and Rubio battling for second, we now have Trump and Cruz battling for first with Rubio a distant third. That is a combination of Carson voters going to Cruz plus people abandoning Rubio for Cruz as he is seen as the one most likely to be able to stop Trump.
I have also said that Trump has a ceiling and nothing that has happened in any of these states has challenged that thinking. He was polling in the mid 30s when we had 17 candidates, and he is polling in the mid 30’s now that we are down to 4. As candidates have dropped out, other candidates have increased while Trump has stayed the same. The only thing that keeps Trump in the lead is the crowded field.
In a head to head matchup, Cruz wins hands down. They even did exit polling in Michigan, asking voters who they would have voted for in a Cruz vs Trump matchup, and Cruz won easily. Not every single voter for Rubio or Kasich will go to Cruz, but when the two of them are pulling 25 to 30% of the vote and Cruz is only down 10-12% with 8-10% undecided, he doesn’t need all of them. The key is that enough of them go to Cruz to easily overtake Trump and the rest just don’t vote. None of them go to Trump.
Cruz has won states in the South, the Northeast, the Midwest, and the West, even in a crowded field. The idea that he can’t win outside the south has been proven to be false at the ballot box. He has won in every region of the country. He even beat Kasich in Michigan after Kasich camped out there.
The best scenario for Cruz on March 15th is to win Missouri, stay even with Trump in NC, and maybe even win Illinois, while Trump wins Ohio and Florida, and that scenario is entirely doable. Polls in NC and MO show Trump with a single digit lead and about 20% undecided. Polls in Illinois are a little worse, but they show Trump +12 with 20% undecided. Cruz has consistently been beating his poll numbers, and we all know that late deciders do not go for Trump. Those results would keep the gains by Trump to be minimal while clearing the field.
By knocking Kasich and Rubio out, Trump may end up winning the battle but losing the war.
Only one of many facts you have taken a unique slant on but Trump has been polling out of the thirties for some time now both in specific local primaries and nationally, but I have seen this March 15th primary Missouri scenario positioned among Cruz media supporters recently as well. It has a rather defensive consistency, a little like military ground forces fighting a defensive retreat, stake out one hill make your stand, then retreat to the next if overrun.
There have actually been events in history that has shown this strategy can lead to victory, the major example being our own American Revolution, as anyone who is a student of Washington’s (a father of guerrilla warfare) campaigns against the British will attest. But as far as a national political primary campaign approach I’m just not convinced that at the end of the process with more state primary losses then wins and a potential close but clear shortfall on delegate count there is a winning ticket to the nomination and that would be the best of the best case outcomes.
What could throw the whole process into chaos (like in Chicago in 1968) is if the Occupied and Black Lives Matter elements turn to disruption targeting Trump, as these guys are way more hardcore revoluntaries then boy scouts like Abbie Hoffman, Tom Hayden, David Dellinger, Rennie Davis, John Froines, Jerry Rubin, Lee Weiner, or Bobby Seale of the National Mobilization Committee to End the War in Vietnam, the Young Lords, and the local Black Panther Party back in 1968. A fair amount of this current modern “protest” leadership are truely hard core flag waving communists not student rock tossers
I will be interested to see the reaction of the RNC and the other primary candidates to these events. Trump has already had to cancel two campaign rallies in Chicago and Cincinnati due to threats of violence on citizen attendees so the impact is clearly directed at him and his campaign who these groups clearly have targeted. They appreantly well realize where the future threat to their activities lie. I will be curious to see how and where the line is drawn and who is standing on each side between now and Cleveland.
You will get my vote. What do you know about Dunn or Correll?
You need not vote for three. Your vote will have more impact if you limit your votes to one or two.
Can you explain that, please. I thought the three with the most votes win, and the next three become alternates? How does only voting for one or two have more impact? Can you use multiple votes for the same person?
Say you have one or two people you really want, by voting for a third person you are giving them a vote that may help them to beat the candidate you really want. No, you can’t vote for a candidate more than once.
But isn’t it total votes? If I want three Cruz people, and I have three votes, shouldn’t I vote for three Cruz people? Sorry, but I am a bit of a neophyte. I really do want to do the most good.
I don’t think that is true… the first three highest vote getters will be the delegates and the next three are alternates. It is my understanding that, since there are three slots for both the delegates and the alternates, delegates to the district conventions will vote for their six top picks.
It depends on the rules in your district. In the 10th district we vote for up to 3 candidates. The top three vote getters are delegates to the convention, the next three are alternates. In some districts the delegates and alternates are separated. You will then vote for 3 delegates and 3 alternates.
OK… that makes sense.
I was worried at one point that the establishment might try to use the contested convention to give us somebody other than Trump or Cruz, but I think it’s clear now even to them that it would blow up the party to do that.
I’m still worried about that possibility.
I think the GOPe is extremely arrogant and out of touch with the voters/reality. And many of them would opt to screw Trump/Cruz at the convention, concede the general election to the Dems, and try this again in 4 years.
I think they’re primarily worried about the Senate at this point. A Trump nomination probably would cost them the Senate, but totally alienating the base also could cost them the Senate. That’s why I think they will bite the bullet and support Cruz.
I am not sure why you would think that unless you are one of those who would sit home and not vote. If you are, thanks for giving Obama 4 more years, and Hillary her first 4 years. My father used to say something about “cutting your nose off to spite your face”… Trump only needs to encourage straight party ticket voting to assure Republicans of gaining seats.
This gets old. If Trump were to be nominated, yes, he would lose. And it wouldn’t be the fault of those who decline to support an unsuitable candidate. It would be the fault of those who nominated the unsuitable candidate.
I too am still worried about that but it will mean the end of the Republican party.
That doesn’t mean they will not try.
The rules right now say that a candidate for nomination must have a majority of delegates from at least 8 states. Trump has met this threshold and Cruz likely will too. No other candidates would. Even if the Romney rules got swept away and the rules went back to what they were pre 2012, only candidates who have a plurality of candidates in 5 states would qualify… so again only Trump and Cruz would be in the running.
I do not think there is the will or the power to change the rules radically beyond what they were before Willard mucked around with them.
That’s the ticket: Dunn, Black & Staton
I think I will have to bring this to the 10th District Convention!