During this Presidential campaign Axiom Strategies has been polling in 10 swing counties in 8 swing states. Their latest polling was completed on October 23rd and continues to show Clinton leading in Loudoun County, currently by 8%, 49% to 41%. Overall Clinton is leading in Virginia by 5%. Clinton is ahead in 5 swing counties and Trump is ahead in 5.
Results in Swing Counties:
More here.
Update on October 30th shows Trump gaining in all 8 swing states. Clinton’s lead in Virginia is down to 4% only 1% in Colorado and 2% in Pennsylvania. Trump leads in Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio where he leads by 5%.
More here.
The tide has turned!
18 comments
Newest Clinton scandal isn’t helping Trump much, probably too much info about his obscene behavior and actions floating around for even scandals like this to put a dent in the numbers. However, this may help Republicans hold the House and possibly the Senate.
It is reinforcing the trend that was already well established before the FBI spoke. And I don’t think it’s baked in, even now. This is more than a blip.
Trump probably needs Pennsylvania to win, but Hillary has a huge advantage among the dead voters in and around Philadelphia. That will be hard to overcome.
“I’m Dead, and I Vote (For Hillary, or course).”.
It’s still doubtful to me that Trump can pull Virginia out of the Hillary pile but with the latest extension of the Clinton investigation by the FBI, the sand bagging by Democratic operatives in so many polling efforts and Trump’s internal polls seeing some traditional blue states in possible play this late in the cycle anything is possible. I can guarantee one thing Republican Rep. Comstock here in the 10th District is pulling big time for this to be a possibility as it may be her best reelection shot.
What continues to puzzle me is the 10 -12 percent that Pat Caddell is claiming are still undecided at this late date and don’t really care for either candidate (even after the continuing Clinton revelations). Democrat Caddell has a good track record this election cycle and if he is correct this might not be decided until the day of the election with the turn out rate and deciding vote pull of this undecided group in the actual election booth, particularly if they are residing in close race states (5% or less candidate preference variance).
Experts or amateurs no one really knows what is going on currently a week out from election day and because there is no agreed upon, reliable national forensic polling base to look back on against post election results it opens up the process very significantly for voter fraud that would be difficult to detect and even empirically point out if undertaken on a large scale because the vote prediction baselines are all over the map. The Democrats are clearly starting to really feel some desperation that the spin won’t flush away so concerned citizens should keep a wary eye out when they vote for unusual behavior of actions.
VA is not in play and never was.
Not really sure why people are still even talking about it.
I’m not so sure.
Clinton is not Obama.
Obama was very, very popular, and if that weren’t true he would not have won in 2012, there’s no way a Clinton could have won Virginia that year. Republicans have had a string of bad luck over the past few years, a lot of in-fighting, lack of support for candidates, some might argue that there have even been a few bad candidates, etc, that has caused them to lose state races, it isn’t because the state has become inhospitable for Republicans. Pollsters take all of these recent Democratic wins into their calculations, polling is in great part an art, and I think they could be miscalculating in Virginia. The rest of the country I don’t know, but Virginia specifically I think Trump has a chance despite what the polls say. I know that seems unlikely to urban folks, but there is a lot of enthusiasm for Trump outside the city, more than for McCain or Romney for certain.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Trump took Virginia.
I agree. Trump has a chance, depending on what other shoes fall this week.
WikiLeaks is supposed to release its big bombshell on Tuesday. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2e02fb6e1aad33ff6702199514b2eec30b455d5952bc7cf546581432445575b8.jpg
I’ll be very happy to eat crow on this one, but I’m not saving any room for it.
Polls taken October 23… before Comeys announcement.
THAT’s the really good part!
..,,. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6d2f429675f3b8a21d6c8d6e831329d11104891f2b83f7132736f0539b028970.jpg
The post has been update after Comey’s announcement.
… but, but, look at the picture! That elephant is _way_ bigger than the donkey, there is no way that donkey could win, the elephant would stomp it into the dirt!
‘Will’ not ‘would’
Can not verify what Dr. Steve Pieczenik is saying but it does explain some of the unusual events of late..
Makes sense to me.