On Monday Christopher Newport’s Wason Center for Public Policy released their latest poll in Virginia. The Poll was taken after the release of the “Access Hollywood” tape and after the second debate. The results were grim with Clinton leading by 15%, 44% to 29%. The key findings from the poll:
1. Clinton leads Trump 44-29 percent on the full five-candidate ballot, indicating significant damage to Trump by the ‘Access Hollywood’ tape and the 2nd debate.
2. Women’s support for Clinton is nearly double their support for Trump, 50-26 percent.
3. Clinton now leads among men for the first time, 37-32 percent.
4.Independent voters are moving to Clinton from Trump and from Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson.
5. Clinton’s lead in Northern Virginia has risen to 55 percent; Trump’s lead in South/Southwest Virginia has grown to 48 percent.
6. Among likely voters in Virginia’s military households, Clinton now leads Trump for the first time, 38-32 percent.
The bad news for Comstock are the poll results in Northern Virginia. Hillary leads with 55% of the vote, Trump has a mere 21%! As Clinton voters head to the polls, 55% of them intend to vote for Clinton. Those Clinton supporters will be given a sample ballot with Lu Anne Bennett’s name on it. Since voters rarely cross party lines when they vote, this is a big bonus for Bennett. Pew Research shows the decline in split district voting, here.
The trend in NOVA shows voters moving toward Clinton. On September 26th, Hillary had 45% of the vote. By October 3rd, her lead had increased to 50%. On October 16th Clinton was leading with 55% and Trump’s had dropped to 21%. The trends are obvious. Clinton could easily have 60-65% of the vote in NOVA by election day. That’s terrible news for the Comstock campaign with the majority of the 10th district votes coming from Fairfax and Loudoun. I previously wrote Comstock’s problems here.
Comstock has worked very hard and run a good campaign. Will it be enough to carry her over the finish line when Clinton has such big advantage in the district? We’ll know in 21 days.