Life After TrumpCare

written by Steven Brodie Tucker March 8, 2017

While nothing is etched in stone and while conservatives will want to fight this to the death, it appears to me as if the likely outcome of TrumpCare is its eventual success. TrumpCare has the support of the President of the United States, as well as leadership in the House and Senate. This is quite a blow to activists who have spent the last ten to six years fighting to ensure that the Republican Party would have the numbers they need to push a conservative agenda and to repeal ObamaCare forever.

Now that they have the numbers, we’ve discovered that a real repeal and replace plan was never truly in the cards. Conservatives feel lied to and betrayed. I’ve heard everything from calls for primary challengers for any Republican that votes for TrumpCare – to declarations that folks will never spend another second, another dollar, or another wasted-vote on the Republican Party.

There is little doubt that TrumpCare will destroy the conservative-wing of the Republican Party; which I believe fits the strategic endgame of this legislation. Donald Trump didn’t get elected on the backs of conservative voters. The conservatives were supporting Cruz, Paul, and Carson. Trump didn’t win the Presidency with Conservative votes, but with Independents and Democrats in Blue-Collar country. Speaker Ryan survived a primary where conservative activists from all over the country showed up in his district to oppose him. The HFC doesn’t help leadership make deals or get anything done. McConnell despises the TEA Party. Why in the world would any of them want to deliver conservatives a political victory?

Getting rid of conservatives might just be what the doctor ordered for Trump, Ryan, McConnell and millions of blue-collar and poor-white-welfare families all across the country. Just as TrumpCare may rid the GOP of a troublesome conservative minority, it could inspire support from even more Independent-voters (including millennials) who just proved that they can swing even the closest elections.

This is why I believe that TrumpCare will work its way through the House of Representatives, methodically and with procedural purity. It’ll pass the House and mysteriously get unanimous support from Republicans in the Senate – even the left-leaning moderate welfare-hawks like Lindsey Graham, Susan Collins, and John McCain (who would love to see the conservatives rage-quit in their States) will vote for the House bill when it gets to the Senate. The President will slap a signature on that bad boy faster than Spicer can draw up some visual aids and BOOM!

We’ll have ourselves TrumpCare, something which will ultimately be embraced by the Democrats once they realize that they didn’t actually lose anything, which will be embraced by the special interest insurance and drug companies that wrote it, and which will satisfy moderate Republicans and Independents the country over.

This is only a theory. I could be wrong. In the event that I’m not, however, folks need to prepare for what this might mean.

While we all may be disappointed in TrumpCare, I think we ought to seriously consider not taking the bait, not giving up or giving in or rage-quitting on activism. Like every other bill, good or bad, we win some and we lose some. It’s always been this way (as frustrating as it is) and it will always be that way. There’s very little we can do about it. However, if we quit the party, if we sulk, if we shake our fists, and wear out our vocal chords; the only thing that will be different without us is that there will be no one pulling the Republican Party to the center-right. And how is that good for anyone?

Another thought, the angrier conservatives are with TrumpCare, the less Democrats will oppose it. “If Conservatives are that angry”, they may say to one another, “maybe TrumpCare’s not so bad!” Maybe Trump even picks up some Democrat support in 2020.

Finally, for as little as this will mean to any of you, TrumpCare will be better than ObamaCare. That’s a fact.

Steven Brodie Tucker

Steven Brodie Tucker graduated with a degree in the art of Philosophy from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, later studying economics and political science at George Mason. Steven Brodie Tucker is a member of the Caroline County Republican Party and an activist for Constitutional and Republican principles.

just a wild & crazy RINO

,..,
- Warmac9999
  
  I heard the speech and the retraction. Bush was not Reagan, just another elitist who happened to be born to wealth and felt an obligation to the little people until he didn’t feel an obligation to the little people (of the Republican base). One of the great acts of stupidity and calumny in all of modern Republican politics.
- SD
  
  there were no new taxes back then, only increases in existing taxes. But since the same things (income, etc) were taxes, there were no new taxes
  - just a wild & crazy RINO
    
    NO…. You are wrong. When Mr CIA said no new taxes he meant NO tax increases. I know . I was there.
    - SD
      
      but he said, :no new taxes”, not no increases!!! So, he was right and the best president of his time since Reagan.
Warmac9999

This is a great argument but just too soon. Trump loves a negotiation, and this bill is structured in such a way that he can take charge and negotiate. I expect some sudden and startling revelations that will advance a far better bill. Just give it time but let the congress know that you are dissatisfied.
- Steven Brodie Tucker
  
  I’ve been rather up front with our Virginia Congressmen; but I’m not going to jump off the deep end on this one. Unless we end up with the ACA, in which case – a pox on all houses.
  - Warmac9999
    
    I fully understand your reluctance here. The media has painted the worse possible picture for conservatives and if by some wild chance they are correct then i will be very angry as well. My argument is that the MSM news is fake news – and they have yet to really fail me in that regard.
Richard Statman

Thanks for the post.
A tone of rationalization, resignation
About what “Trumpcare” might mean perhaps.

Perhaps it is about something else.
I would direct you to Bret Stephens
And his Daniel Pearl Memorial Lecture this year
Published by his newspaper WSj , reprinted
By Time.com very recently.

His comments speak to your tone in this post,
and should be noted by people who read BE
or even Millenial Ascent.

Thanks again for the post…
Simply not easy putting yourself out there.
Mies Rohe

Again, well read and explained, SBT. Warmac9999 is a RINO, an apologist for anything with an R attached, including this POTUS, who could not possibly be less conservative nor less libertarian, a true Bull Mouse (yes, MOUSE) with a megaphone.
- Warmac9999
  
  I am a constitutional conservative and absolutely despise those who have thrown the Constitution under the bus for political convenience and power. I was a Cruz supporter and am sad he lost but thankful that Hillary isn’t the president. Unlike you I am willing to give Trump a chance and, so far, so good for the working middle class American citizenry.
  - Mies Rohe
    
    I am thankful HRC lost, gave Trump chance after chance but that is over now that he has continually disgraced the office of the president and our constitution. At this point I’d happily give Pence the office to restore its dignity and grace along with respect for the constitution.
    - Warmac9999
      
      He has had virtually no chances thanks to Democrat stall tactics. His cabinet still isn’t in place – and they are the folks that move things along. Trump is out working everybody and, frankly, that is amazing to see.
      - Mies Rohe
        
        Good luck with that. You will reap what he has sown: Distrust, disgust, disgrace. His cabinet still isn’t in place because several of them quit.
        
        Democratic stall tactics? Do Democrats control either the House or the Senate? Of course not.
        
        What conservative or libertarian proposes trillions in new federal spending alongside tax cuts? What conservative supports cozying up to Russia?
        
        I thought there would be an immediate repeal of ObamaCare. What happened to lock her up?
        
        He is a fraud. He is BIG GOVT on credit. He’s a real estate developer, the people Virginians hate. Dream on.
Jim Portugul

Steve, the Republicans have promised more affordable healthcare, and better coverage by installing free market ideas in their Trumpcare. Can you tell me what page of the Trumpcare plan the Republicans put the ability to purchase health insurance across state lines on? Can you tell me what page Republicans put anything to increase competition on? Can you tell me anything in the plan that will do anything other than increase prices, and lower coverage? Can you tell us who actually wrote this plan? Can you tell us that it is nothing more than a lie?
- Rocinante
  
  That’s a good question for our Republican Congressional delegation… how are they fixing this?
  
  Why not ask your District RPV Chairmen? How about State Party Chair, John Whitbeck, ask HIM about “our” Congressmen?
  
  Ask your SCC members (RPV Board of Directors) the same — many of them are paid staff and/or have “ties” to the Congressional representative. Bring this up when somebody lectures you about the incumbent protection act.
  
  How about we ask those that were ‘endorsed’ by our Representatives in party or other contests.
  
  We seem to have a number of candidates for statewide office, ask their campaigns for positions on the specific aspects of this legislation — that’ll separate out the weasels right away.
  
  Enerytine you contact your Rep, drop a copy to your party leadership and ask THEM what they will do about it.
  
  If/when you do get an answer, or a weasel marker, post it here, how about an open thread where we can all comment on how all our representatives actually listen and thus our strong and vibrant party is worth the effort.
  
  Be the mouse on this else we get a GOP-branded Obamacare for our posterity.
  - Steven Brodie Tucker
    
    No local or statewide candidates have anything to do with Trumpcare. What does it matter what they think? Talk to your Congressmen and then give them some feedback.
    - Rocinante
      
      Oh yes they do. They will politically and electorally be affected by what hath Congress wrought.
      
      How many of them have been bitching about Obamacare on the stump and if they now think this is good enough, tell me why/how they deserve support of the rank and file?
      
      I’m looking for weasels to zap, and we have plenty in our own back yard.
      
      Congress will hear, and so will their enablers who currently infest the party.
      
      Also, why the semantics of Trumpcare instead of Ryancare, or Comstockcare? Still showing your stripes.
    - just a wild & crazy RINO
      
      Hampton republicans are meeting Monday night at La Boteca. The Rino will be asking people what they think. I am rather curious about what answers I will hear..
- Steven Brodie Tucker
  
  Jim, from what I can tell, the Trumpcare fixes most of the cost-raising regulations and inefficiencies, keeps 98% of the taxes, and establishes opened markets and HSAs. All that can change once this goes to the Senate. It doesn’t look like Trumpcare passes without Democrat support in the House or Senate though. So we’ll see.
  - Mick Staton
    
    Actually, you have that completely backwards. It KEEPS all the regulations but removes most of the taxes. It keeps the pre-existing condition mandate, but removes the mandate to buy insurance. It also creates a brand new government entitlement.
    
    Trumpcare is actually worse than Obamacare.
    - Steven Brodie Tucker
      
      That’s not what I’m hearing; though I’ve heard others mention the same thing today.
      - Mick Staton
        
        Go read what Heritage, Club for Growth, and Freedomworks are saying about this bill. Even the House Leaderships own website states that they do away with the taxes, but it says nothing about doing away with the new regulations.
        
        https://housegop.leadpages.co/healthcare/
        
        The biggest problem is keeping the requirement to cover pre-existing conditions, but doing away with the individual mandate. That just accelerates the “death spiral” that some insurance executives say has already begun.
        
        If this passes, we won’t have to worry about health insurance problems much longer, because there won’t be any health insurance companies left.
      - just a wild & crazy RINO
        
        Most Americans believe that no matter how bad something is, Congress can always make it worse. With their new health care bill, Republican Congressional leaders seem intent on proving that point.
        
        http://www.newsmax.com/ScottRasmussen/gop-obamacare-health-care/2017/03/09/id/777848/
Rob Blackstone

Why is it a certainty that Trumpcare will be better?

I haven’t see anything to support that notion. There’s certainly nothing in there that will control costs and stop premiums from rising.

Am I missing something?
- Steven Brodie Tucker
  
  My understanding is that Trumpcare will open up the market and give us tax-deductible savings healthcare expenses etc. Because it keeps the mandate, it also keeps all the taxes, but I think they get rid of a bunch of the cost-increasing regulations.
  - Reinhardt Reganbacker lll
    
    You really need to read it.
    - Steven Brodie Tucker
      
      I’ve been reading through what was posted; not sure how much got changed in the 18 hour session yesterday.
Edward N Virginia

Good ‘first try’ …. but you failed to consider that

many ‘fiscally conservative’ Democrats and Independents may be broadly supportive of the re-configuration of Medicaid. many who are supportive will not say loudly and may not say publicly at all.

many relatively affluent Democrats and Independents will like the tax advantages and many will like a ‘growing market’ for insurance product

On the other hand, there is no evidence that a national marketplace for health insurance will do ANYTHING to lower costs. Does anyone believe that people will price-compare surgery and rehab across state lines? For example: would you encourage your mother to get her hip replacement a couple states away because the surgery is cheaper there? and then get her extended recovery and rehab in yet another state? And regarding your child who needs continuing mental health therapy and supportive care ….when you purchase the ‘cheap’ insurance that doesn’t cover that level of MH care … are you going to regret trying the ‘game’ the market?

Life After TrumpCare

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