While nothing is etched in stone and while conservatives will want to fight this to the death, it appears to me as if the likely outcome of TrumpCare is its eventual success. TrumpCare has the support of the President of the United States, as well as leadership in the House and Senate. This is quite a blow to activists who have spent the last ten to six years fighting to ensure that the Republican Party would have the numbers they need to push a conservative agenda and to repeal ObamaCare forever.
Now that they have the numbers, we’ve discovered that a real repeal and replace plan was never truly in the cards. Conservatives feel lied to and betrayed. I’ve heard everything from calls for primary challengers for any Republican that votes for TrumpCare – to declarations that folks will never spend another second, another dollar, or another wasted-vote on the Republican Party.
There is little doubt that TrumpCare will destroy the conservative-wing of the Republican Party; which I believe fits the strategic endgame of this legislation. Donald Trump didn’t get elected on the backs of conservative voters. The conservatives were supporting Cruz, Paul, and Carson. Trump didn’t win the Presidency with Conservative votes, but with Independents and Democrats in Blue-Collar country. Speaker Ryan survived a primary where conservative activists from all over the country showed up in his district to oppose him. The HFC doesn’t help leadership make deals or get anything done. McConnell despises the TEA Party. Why in the world would any of them want to deliver conservatives a political victory?
Getting rid of conservatives might just be what the doctor ordered for Trump, Ryan, McConnell and millions of blue-collar and poor-white-welfare families all across the country. Just as TrumpCare may rid the GOP of a troublesome conservative minority, it could inspire support from even more Independent-voters (including millennials) who just proved that they can swing even the closest elections.
This is why I believe that TrumpCare will work its way through the House of Representatives, methodically and with procedural purity. It’ll pass the House and mysteriously get unanimous support from Republicans in the Senate – even the left-leaning moderate welfare-hawks like Lindsey Graham, Susan Collins, and John McCain (who would love to see the conservatives rage-quit in their States) will vote for the House bill when it gets to the Senate. The President will slap a signature on that bad boy faster than Spicer can draw up some visual aids and BOOM!
We’ll have ourselves TrumpCare, something which will ultimately be embraced by the Democrats once they realize that they didn’t actually lose anything, which will be embraced by the special interest insurance and drug companies that wrote it, and which will satisfy moderate Republicans and Independents the country over.
This is only a theory. I could be wrong. In the event that I’m not, however, folks need to prepare for what this might mean.
While we all may be disappointed in TrumpCare, I think we ought to seriously consider not taking the bait, not giving up or giving in or rage-quitting on activism. Like every other bill, good or bad, we win some and we lose some. It’s always been this way (as frustrating as it is) and it will always be that way. There’s very little we can do about it. However, if we quit the party, if we sulk, if we shake our fists, and wear out our vocal chords; the only thing that will be different without us is that there will be no one pulling the Republican Party to the center-right. And how is that good for anyone?
Another thought, the angrier conservatives are with TrumpCare, the less Democrats will oppose it. “If Conservatives are that angry”, they may say to one another, “maybe TrumpCare’s not so bad!” Maybe Trump even picks up some Democrat support in 2020.
Finally, for as little as this will mean to any of you, TrumpCare will be better than ObamaCare. That’s a fact.