According to the recent Mary Washington poll of voters in Virginia, Trump is now in a virtual tie with Clinton. This poll was taken using 609 cell phone users and 397 landline users between September 6th and 12th. The result was Clinton with 40% of the vote and Trump with 37, within the poll’s margin of error of 3.9% for registered voters and 4.4% for likely voters. The details of the poll are here.
In other recent polls Trump is up by 8% in Iowa, 13% in Missouri, and 3% in Ohio. In Michigan there’s a virtual tie, Clinton at 38% and Trump at 35%. In the South there is a tie in North Carolina, Trump is up 4% in Georgia, 7% in Texas and a whopping 28% in Arkansas. Wait, didn’t the Clintons live there for many years? It would appear that those who know them best don’t much like them. See all recent polls here.
Fox News released a poll today showing Trump and Clinton in a dead heat, Clinton at 41% to 40% for Trump, among likely voters in a 4 way race. In a two way race Trump is on top 46% to 45%. More on Trump’s serge in battleground states and nationally here. Even the recent New York Times poll shows the candidates separated by a mere 2% among likely voters in a two way race. In a 4 way race the Times’ poll has the candidates tied at 42%.
I think there are three reasons why Donald Trump is surging in the polls. First is Hillary’s constant lies about everything. Her unfavorable numbers continue to rise in nearly every poll. Second, Hillary’s health is a problem. We all saw the film on 9/11 where she looked stiff and robotic and then collapsed. Of course her campaign lied about that too. And about the pneumonia. Non-contagious bacterial pneumonia? According to doctors, there is no such thing. No such diagnosis. The third reason is Trump has become a much better campaigner. He’s made no use gaffs in the last few weeks and his speeches are much better. He’s connecting with voters with his programs and ideas to better America. Thank you Kellyanne Conway!
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“Thank you Kellyanne Conway!” Well when you are so frequently and consistently wrong as the main principles and numerous contributors to this blog have been over this presidential election cycle regarding Donald Trump what is one more small misconception to add to that towering pile. I saw Trump up close in Iowa while working for Bobby Jindal and I will see him again here in Miami today and Saturday and the one thing that I can confidently, unequivocally state is that Trump has grown exponentially as a hands on “retail politician” to the point it’s almost unbelievable to grasp it’s the same candidate, even though the campaign message has remained largely unchanged.
It’s amazing to me how comfortable he is both in front of and employing the electronic media made available to him daily. What did Conway have to do with that ability and growth? In my opinion little to nothing. He is a very, very quick learner and doesn’t linger over making critical campaign decisions and moving on in a different direction. Case in point, Florida is essentially a must-win for Trump, who has fewer ways than Clinton to capture the Electoral College without the state’s 29 votes.
Two weeks ago considerably before the media coverage over Hillary’s health issues he was lagging in the state. Karen Giorno his State Director at the time (and a close associate of Trump) was lagging opening regional field offices in the view of many local Florida Republicans. A few days ago a quick and decisive decision was made by Trump himself according to all the reliable sources I have spoken with to replace Ms. Giorno with the very experienced Suzie Wiles, who has ran many successful election efforts in the state including for current governor, Rick Scott. From what I have been told campaign schedules were shifted for both him and Pence to immediately follow up this move with several rallies and election events in the state.
Here is the interesting point to me, which is Trump personally targets Miami-Dade County the MOST hostile state territory for the Trump team. This county has a large Cuban voting bloc that over the years has become the bed rock constituency for the local and state Democratic Party. Miami-Dade was the only county Trump lost in the state during the March 15 primary and it’s become Florida’s base central for the lingering group of Republican elected NeverTrumper’s including U.S. Reps. Carlos Curbelo, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez and Miami Mayor Tomás Regalado.
So what does Trump do but head directly into the lion’s den today to confront this situation, but with a brilliant twist. The Cuban Democratic mafia may run Miami-Dade but the voting demographics have shifted considerably since the late sixties to a large and growing Haitian American population, primarily black, politically unaffiliated and looked down upon by their fellow Caribbean rim immigrants who control the local political infrastructure. He has scheduled several specific coalition-building type meetings directly in the local Haitian communities that is currently driving the local Cuban Democrats and Republicans out of their collective minds.
He may not be able to pull the rug out from under the local political power block but he has hit home hard and they are currently running in circles here in Miami desperately trying to convince a Haitian voting bloc they simply took for granted not to simply walk away to Trump. Brilliant, I reflect could a Romney or McClain candidacy or election team have had the flexibility, insight or chutzpah to tackle such a move on little to no notice and right upfront in your face, NOT a chance. It may be easy to consistently underestimate Donald Trump but as the local power structure here in Miami are slowly becoming aware it’s often not to smart to do so.
Its in the bag
Not yet, and they will lie, cheat, steal until the end and beyond — eternal vigilance!