This is fascinating. Fredericks knows Virginia politics!
I know this is what you’ve all really been waiting for – our fabled and famous morning line odds on key Virginia races. As you know, I’m almost always right…[read_more]
Here is how it works: for multiple candidates in a race (more than two) we use a money line. In races where we have only two candidates currently forecasted to run we use a point spread system based on the vote total percentage points the favorite is expected to win by as of this writing.
December 16, 2014 – All Lines subject to change weekly.
Governor – Democrat (Point Spread)
Ralph Northam -2.5 (favorite)
Mark Herring +2.5
Northam has powerful political allies in Gov. Terry McAuliffe and Minority Leader Dick Saslaw. McAuliffe will continue to prop him up and the Godfather (Saslaw) will go to the wall for his friend. Dick never leaves a soldier on the field.
Herring has no doubt motivated Virginia’s progressive base and he’ll rally disparate liberal interest groups to his cause.
But Northam has solidified his Hampton Roads geographical dominance that will once again give him a huge vote plurality.
Herring almost lost to Justin Fairfax, an unknown, in the 2013 Democratic primary.
Plus there is no Republican gubernatorial primary on Democratic primary day in June because the GOP will opt for a convention in May.
That allows Republicans who are miffed at Herring due to his refusal defend certain parts of the Commonwealth’s constitution to cross over and vote for Northam. This is real.
That’s what cooked Aneesh Chopra in ’13.
History repeats itself – with a vengeance.
Northam installed as an early two and one-half-point favorite.
Bet against him at your own risk.
Northam’s not pretty, he’s not sexy and he’s not flashy — he just wins elections.
Governor – Republican (Money Line)
Mark Obenshain 5-2
Somebody has to beat him at a convention. He’s the morning line chalk for sure, but he’s not invulnerable. His campaign brain trust blew a three-point lead down the stretch to Herring last time.
But the base likes him, and he’s a relentless campaigner. Mark continues to make the right moves.
Rob Wittman 4-1
If you had any doubt he’s running for governor in 2017, just check out his CRomnibus vote. He voted no. His Congressional seat is not up in ’17 so he has no risk, and very little to lose.
He’s not known state- wide and he doesn’t raise tons of money.
Running a statewide convention is a lot of work to try and do from D.C.
But he’s come from nowhere to win a convention before. He’s got a Ph.D. and he’s scary smart.
Wittman is sincere, savvy, passionate and very articulate. He could be perceived as the guy who can win.
He’s the solid second choice — with the smart money flowing his way.
Pete Snyder 6-1
Pete is doing all the right things in ’14 to set him up for ’17.
He’s the businessman with a real statewide network.
He’s battle tested with convention experience.
Snyder is the only non-politician in the race, activists see him all the time on Fox News and Pete could be seen as the one who can win a general in November. Republicans will be starving for a winner in ’17.
Sen. Chap Peterson (D-Fairfax) says Pete’s the most dangerous Republican in Virginia. Chap’s right.
At third choice on the board, he’s a solid long shot play at 6-1.
Frank Wagner 8-1
Don’t count him out.
Sure, he’s made a ton of Tea Party enemies from the slating of delegates’ debacle in his failed CD-2 Chairman’s race.
It killed Cantor. Will it kill Frank?
He’s also the guy who turned out 1,000 supporters at an obscure Virginia Beach high school on a weeknight in March.
Wagner sports a veteran Navy network around the Commonwealth from his deep-sea diver days in the service. They’ll come to Richmond for their comrade.
Tough, focused and with a take-no-prisoners – you need me on that wall persona, he may be just what the doctor ordered up come May of 2017 in Richmond.
He’ll bring several thousand Hampton Roads delegates to the convention and likely will survive the first ballot.
Then Wagner runs his fun and gun offense. A long shot for sure, but not to be ignored.
Bill Stanley 15-1
Can a southwest Virginia regional candidate pull off an upset? Stanley’s last statewide convention was a loss to Republican Party of Virginia chairman Pat Mullins. He’ll have the same problems in Northern Virginia again.
But 2017 is a long time away, and Stanley is a relentless campaigner.
Lt. Governor – Democrat
Morning line posted February 1. What will Chap do?
Lt. Governor – Republican (Money Line)
*Pete Snyder 3-1
If Snyder runs for LG vs. Gov., he goes in the morning line favorite. See above.
Corey Stewart 4-1
If Stewart gets re-elected to Prince William County Chairman in a county with a 54 percent minority population, the ever-restless Cory will look statewide again.
Stewart, like Snyder, has been to the rodeo and knows what mishaps he made in the last convention.
He’s a player if he wins and gets in, and the second choice to Snyder if Pete drops down to LG.
His record on taxes slows him down, but his vocal opposition to illegals will play well with conventioneers.
Bryce Reeves 5-1
Ambitious and politically well connected, Reeves is salivating for a statewide run. But first he has to get re-elected. That’s a big “if.”
David Ramadan 6-1
Jump on the budding Ramadan boom-let at these odds! He wins in a district where no other Republican could dream of being competitive while sticking to his conservative principles.
He’s got a long way to go but where there is a will there is a way. If he doesn’t run he’s a scratch and you get your money back. No downside. If Snyder runs for Governor then Ramadan’s got mojo – or “ROJO.” Sounds like a new hash-tag: #ROJO.
Israel O’Quinn 9-1
With Stanley bringing in southwest Virginia delegates, Israel becomes a dark horse candidate – a long-time political operative with regional juice. He’s a sleeper in the race – and a fresh face.
Glenn Davis 10-1
You ask: why? I ask: why not? If Snyder runs for the top spot and Davis gets 750 delegates and Wagner brings in 2,500, anything can happen and this race has upset written all over it. It’s the beach bash!
The Field 15-1
Am I missing any potential candidates? Email me at john@JFradioshow.com
Others are sure to run.
Democrat – Attorney General (Point Spread)
Justin Fairfax -5 (favorite)
Scott Surovell +5
It’s Fairfax’ race to lose. But never, ever, ever count Surovell out. If he runs, it’s a dogfight. Plus his mom is a secret weapon.
Republican – Attorney General (Point Spread)
Rob Bell -21.5
The Field +21.5
Bell could mail it in, go on vacation in the Caribbean, tweet out his candidacy and drop box a convention video to Richmond. He’d still win.
He’s a prohibitive 3-touchdown plus favorite. Turn out the lights, this party’s over. He’s never stopped running since last time.
John Fredericks is a syndicated morning radio talk show host who can be heard on WHKT AM 1650 in Hampton Roads, WNTW AM 820 in Richmond and WBRG AM 1050 and 104.5 FM in Lynchburg. Streaming live: http://tunein.com/radio/WHKT-1650-s29343