Corey Stewart defeated Nick Freitas and EW Jackson Tuesday night to become the Republican nominee for the US Senate and the map this race left behind has left many Republicans baffled by what happened and what can be learned. The biggest takeaway was the incredible performance Stewart delivered in Northern Virginia, particularly voter-rich Fairfax and Loudoun County. What is even more incredible is when you compare it to the 2017 gubernatorial primary between Stewart and Ed Gillespie.
From the start, this race was destined to scramble the electoral map of Virginia primaries. For the past generation the breakdown between grassroots conservative and establishment Republican has been fairly clean and what you would expect. Candidates like Bob McDonnell, George Allen and Ed Gillespie did well in Northern Virginia and suburban Richmond while outsiders like Stewart surged in the rural hinterlands. However in this race there was no establishment candidate and the three candidates were various shades of red – Freitas a younger libertarian conservative, Stewart a staunch MAGA devotee, and EW Jackson as a classic social conservative firebrand. The big question was where would the McDonnell/Allen/Gillespie Republicans go? Would they even vote?
Turnout for this election was down from 2017 so there were definitely Republicans that stayed home. Except for one district … Virginia 10, driven by a robust challenge to Barbara Comstock by Shak Hill. Drilling down into Loudoun and Fairfax counties, you see the story of this election.
In the two most important counties in Northern Virginia, not only was overall turnout up but Freitas drastically underperformed Gillespie while Corey Stewart picked up a net 6,761 from last year in these two counties and the margin of victory for Corey statewide was 5,237. What happened is the congressional primary in the 10th drove up turnout from 2017 to 2018 by about 25% and the higher turnout went to Corey Stewart. There was no correlation between Freitas/Comstock and Stewart/Hill like one might assume. Both Comstock and Hill drove up turnout FOR Corey Stewart! It’s a bizarre phenomenon that requires some digging in to. Even more shocking was the net loss of 4,346 votes from Gillespie to Freitas in Fairfax County. That means that Ed voters last year either went to Corey or didn’t vote at all. I suppose many of the establishment wing in Fairfax who either didn’t vote or left that part blank might be regretting it. If you are one of those, let me just politely say you are a buffoon and I don’t want to hear one complaint about Stewart from you.
I do have one thought off the top of my head. Northern Virginia Republican primary voters tend to be older baby boomers and that generational divide went against the younger, more libertarian Freitas. These are voters that like Trump and whose issues are more likely immigration than a 20 minute stump speech on liberty. Neither candidate spent very much money so I think a lot of Republicans energized by Comstock and Hill voted name ID, and that was Corey. The Freitas campaign made a huge mistake but not more directly engaging Northern Virginia through mass mailings and other forms of mass contact like robocalls to up his name ID and get across his background and message.
The larger lesson for RPV continues to be what it has always been. The party and statewide candidate’s engagement in Northern Virginia has been pathetic. Local committees are often left to fend for themselves and successful Republicans in the region both past and present have succeeded in building their own local organization outside of the party infrastructure. There seems to be an almost cultural resentment against Northern Virginia that drives Republicans downstate from fully engaging Northern Virginia. Nick Freitas had an incredible opportunity to come to Northern Virginia and win this region just based on not being Corey. But in order to connect with Northern Virginia primary voters, who skew older, you need a robust robocall and mailing plan to get your name out. Personal events, social media ads and word of mouth don’t work here. This region is enormous, and I genuinely think many downstate don’t understand how large it is. RPV needs to dedicate paid staff and a satellite office in Northern Virginia to build up an accurate voter database, conduct outreach, organize and just reach out. Corey did in fact do this, which is why his numbers went so high. With all due respect, you can’t run in Northern Virginia like you run a delegate race in Culpeper. It requires money and organization, and I think the Freitas campaign will look back and kick themselves that they missed an opportunity.
These results also beg the question if Corey Stewart might be a stronger candidate than he appears to be. We all know his negatives, that goes without saying. But his victory map is one I haven’t seen before, Corey won by winning rural Virginia and suburban Northern Virginia. It also must catch the attention of Barbara Comstock, who’s going to need every single Republican vote possible to fend off Jennifer Wexton. In a vacuum, a political alliance (however low-key) between Comstock and Stewart could help both of them given the division in the 10th nicely mirrors Stewart and Comstock. Don’t get me wrong, I think Tim Kaine is winning but I think Stewart will do better percentage-wise than Gillespie did. Corey clearly has a motivated constituency and a career of intriguing successes in Northern Virginia that break the normal Republican paradigm in Virginia.
For those outraged by Stewart’s victory, particularly downstate Richmond types who have long ignored/hated/resented Northern Virginia’s power and turn to blue, I hope this is finally your wake-up call. Northern Virginia has millions of voters, and year after year statewide Republican candidates do everything they possibly can to win without us. It’s impossible and we’ve fallen so far behind the solutions aren’t easy. It will take money, organizations and patience to re-engage the voters of this region.
WAKE UP RICHMOND!
79 comments
[…] which saw a primary battle between Congresswoman Barbara Comstock and Shak Hill. That race drove up numbers for Corey Stewart because he organized and worked in the […]
I’m not sure how many places did not have a Democrat primary but certainly Tim Kaine is unopposed so seems there was nothing to stop Democrats for voting for The Republican said Tim prefers to run against! And what’s to prevent the Democrat Party from notifying registered Democrats to vote for a certain Republican so he would win and Tim Kaine gets his choice of opponents! 🙁 I live in a highly Democrat area and there was only one ballot for all in the Open primary and it only had three Republican names on it yet I saw many Democrats voting in just a few minutes I was there! 🙁
Mr. Beer (great name, by tw), Freitas definitely WAS the establishment candidate. The establishment picked him, encouraged him to run, and backed him.
You literally have no idea what you’re talking about. None.
The author, Chris Beer, wrote:
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Don’t get me wrong, I think [that] Tim Kaine [shall win the general election in November,] but I think [that Corey] Stewart will do better percentage-wise than [candidate] Gillespie did.
———————————————————————–
See that?? That sentiment is defeatist and a prime example as to why conservatives do not trust the RPVa. or the RINO’s who control it. Phreak you RINO’s!
I live in Lansdowne Woods (formerly Leisure World), Did you know that Tim Kaine is coming to here to speak (Democrat Club)? In my 14 years of being here, I can’t remember a Republican senatorial or governor candidate coming here to speak. They have always sent their wives.
Seniors are an important constituency. They have the time, take the time, and they know their candidates. They also tell their friends.
Corey and Babs will be there.
Are they the new ‘unity’ team? Why would they appear at a Democrat event. I gotta admit it’s funny to think of Corey and Babs linking arms and singing Kumbaya.
Looking at the numbers of the primary, they are more Unity than Bob Job and Job Czar.
Corey and Babs will go to Leisure World, because they know how to campaign to win.
Politics does make for strange bedfellows, and mutual interests do sometimes align.
They do not necessarily have to hold a joint appearance at Leisure World. Where did you get that idea?
People need to sit up and listen and watch Corey Stewart. By winning rural VA and NOVA, he just did what we’ve said RPV needs to do for a statewide candidate. He did what nobody else has been able to do for decades. How did that happen:
1. Stewart is local to NOVA so he gets homefield advantage with name recognition.
2. Stewart appeals to rural voters so he won downstate.
3. Stewart is a strong borders candidate. We have a lot of immigration issues in NOVA. MS-13 slaughters people regularly. Immigration is a below the surface issue. People don’t want to appear “-ist” but are smart enough to recognize there is an actual problem than needs to be dealt with. Stewart has a loooooong track record of strong borders that pre-dates Trump.
4. The South is still Southern. Confederate Corey has passionate street cred with a slice of the electorate.
5. Maybe Prince William County is the Republican key. It straddles the rural/NOVA divide. If you can win over PW County, maybe that is key to winning over republicans across the state. You have to talk metro and chew tobacco at the same time.
Personally, I’m delighted that he won. One failed nice guy after the next has gone down in flames. It is time to try another approach. Tradition be damned.
Just about to post these same sentiments.
All you’ve been cackling for years about how bad the “NoVa libruls” are screwing up Va by electing Dems.
Now, you finally have a candidate that can demonstrably pull the NoVa vote and you’re bitching about that.
I’m no Stewart fan and voted for Freitas but it seems nobody can win with YOU, let alone the State.
There is absolutely no way Corey will beat Kaine in NOVA. Has NOVA EVER backed a Republican, much less a ‘save the Confederacy’ Republican?
I don’t think Mr Stewart will defeat Mr Kaine may areas, if any at all but that wasn’t my intended point.
You got what you wanted. A NoVa carrying (at least nominally which is better than what you’ve had prior) Republican. But now, it’s the “wrong” NoVa Republican…….you people. Sheesh
You did see what just happened in the Primary right?
Was there a Democrat choice against Corey? Darn, I missed that.
“Corey can’t win in NoVA.” — Corey wins in NoVA.
The democrat choice against Corey is Kaine.
This is an election, there are two choices. democrat Kaine or Republican Corey.
One may Vote for Kaine, One may Vote for Corey. Or one may not Vote. (Or onc can spoil your ballot with a write-in which counts as a not-vote.)
Push against Kaine is supporting Corey. Pushing against Corey is supporting Kaine.
I don’t make the rules, I merely explain and help illustrate. In much the same way that Republicans who facilitated Medicaid Expansion are self-correcting, so will Republicans who support other than our nominees.
That depends on how you define NOVA. Stewart will likely win PG and might win Loudoun. Arlington, never. And all he has to do is lose by less than his predecessors in Fairfax and he can win the election. Kaine has a lot of negatives and looks like a dufuss clown with a chuckles laugh. Nobody is excited about Tim Kaine. Conversely, Stewart is going to get a lot of publicity and will drive up poll numbers and has an energized base. We will hear the same story that the liberal media does every election: Republican is soooo far behind (lie to demoralize opposition) and then closes rapidly (lie again because the gap was never there, but they have to scare their base to show up) and then they all have their mouths agape because the impossible happens and the Republican wins.
Stewart will be Virginia’s first Republican Senator in a long time.
So the Stars and Bars is like a pink hat?
Jeanine, You seem to have a big problem (or obsession) with the Confederacy, a country that hasn’t existed for over a century and a half. It’s flags are all we see on this blog.
So the way that I to understand some comments;
Is that Democrats caused the NO Va’s to vote Syewart up north and the fact that Stewart carried the South Western part is,that they are racist?
And if all the votes Stewart obtained in SWVA is because of racist and the other Republicans are not supporting him because of that accusation then don’t come to SWVA for votes at all.
Then;
Put your money where your mouth is.
Very good analysis. I have the utmost respect for primary voters A) because these are the political enthused, interested, and passionate voters — THEY are the political crème dela crème and the electoral elite and B) The collective wisdom of our party leadership decided that a primary was in the best interest of all Republicans (see https://bearingdrift.com/2017/06/20/need-primary-2018/)
Haha, good one. The number of people who voted for Corey and Comstock, who have nothing in common, proves we let low income voters chose our nominees. They vote based on the name recognition and nothing more.
Low income voters choose the nominee? How terrible.
Oops, “low information” voters! Sorry for the error.
I knew what you meant but boy did I pounce on that juicy typo!!!
That might be the singularly stupidest comment I have seen in years.
Might you be able to articulate that a bit more fully?
Low income
Bingo
A typo that has been corrected. Sorry!
“Low income voters?” Perhaps they should be required to own property?
What can be done about these riff raff? Perhaps somebody kind of test or tax for these Low Info citizens before they can vote?
Low information voters will never go away, hence why liberals turned out in 2017 because they though Gillespie voters would kill their kids with pickup trucks. Here is another theory. We tried the caucus and lost with Cuccinelli and the moderates blamed the conservatives. We tried a primary and lost with Gillespie and the conservatives blamed the moderates. Maybe John Whitbeck is right. Maybe the problem is us and our party in-fighting. The primary is over – time to move on
NOTE – I also voted for Freitas on Tuesday.
Yes, let’s move on to working hard to minimize the damage Corey causes our Congressional candidates.
Why give up on Stewart? Obama had Bill Ayers, Reverend Wright, and Louis Farrakhan that he associated with and he still won.
He also had all the money in the world, he was eloquent, and he was the First Black President. You mighta heard about it. Although I suppose Corey could be the first Senator to run on a “Save the Confederacy” and “White Supremacy” platform, but I seriously doubt that’s a winning Strategy. But Americans are getting dumber by the minute so you never know.
You think that works? What happens when Corey is Senator? Will we have to put you on Shak watch?
Hahaha, It’s hilarious to think of Corey as a Senator although I do think he’ll finish somewhere in the mid 30’s, perhaps even upper 30’s if he has a good day. What’s Shak got to do with it?
I will see you at his swearing in.
Indeed.
Two words: open primary.
One thing I learned door knocking in NoVA is that many Republican primary voters are not Republicans.
I agree … we need a convention.
However I’ll argue that this did not apply here. The 10th district had big primaries for both parties so the turnout increase in the GOP primary were Republican voters, driven by Comstock and Hill. I don’t think a Democrat would waste their time in the 10th district on a Senate primary for a race Kaine is probably winning either way and not vote in the Democratic primary.
TCC Albertson, the RPV, and the Cruzcinelli Cabal have ruined Conventions for the party. Our anemic organization and general laziness bemoans a canvass which leaves us with our open primaries as the ‘most fair’ option.
We must play the cards as dealt.
How did Steve ruin conventions? It’s the establishment Republicans on the SCC who won’t allow conventions. I hope they’re happy with Tuesday’s results.
All of the SCC is responsible for foisting our primary abortion upon the taxpayers and commonwealth. This is the result of TCC Albertson and his confellowship as much as it was the Sith Lords of the RPV.
Or are we to believe our SCC all held hands and together decided to choose the method of nomination that most favored Corey Stewart?
This 80-strong razor-sharp council of Republican elders that couldn’t resolve that Medicaid Expansion was a bad thing and is the driving force of Republican fiscal responsibility said ‘Sure thing, screw the taxpayers if it will help Corey get elected?’
Did they get sugared up with cookies and muffins at the Republican SCC annex and were more malleable than usual?
Did they even try even for a Canvass or do any knd of discussion or debate about sensible alternatives or did Corey simply own that election too?
The Establishment owns it! Although I doubt it occurred to the establishment dopes on SCC that Stewart’s nomination would be the result.
Our party doesn’t require them to be — they’re like a huge focus group and/or the guy you’re being nice to because he’s buying the beer.
However, I would suggest that most Republican voters in NoVA choose not to identify as such, protective coloration and all that.
A convention the answer?
That might cost Republicans even more.
Possibly get these primaries in concert with a Democratic primary or even an elected seat?
Just a thought this would have them Democrats loyal to obtaining a Democrat ballot.
to be honest … I’ve never thought the method of nomination has any real effect. Candidates have won and lost being nominated by both methods. In the end it comes down to the quality of the candidate and the campaign they are running.
It comes down to nothing more than name recognition which is the only way to explain voters voting for Corey AND Comstock.
That’s it, name recognition!
Once our primary voters were able to pass the geographical ‘find the polling place test,’ circumvent the physical ‘Push/Pull Door Test and then the tongue-between-the-teeth ‘name-that-Candidate memory test, they successfully voted to elect our nominees.
Should we consider it a success that only 20% are still trapped wandering the polling places looking for the egress???
Having contempt for the electorate is no pathway to political success nor understanding.
Thank you for saving me the trouble of having to respond to the asinine. At Bearing Left I have to address arrogance, here it is stupidity masquerading as arrogance.
Arrogance here? Nope. Brian Schoeneman is not permitted to post on TBE.
If it had no real effect, you wouldn’t see the factions having a cage match fight everytime it comes up at the SCC.
When the nominees are selected by delegates that are disconnected from the party, you get nominees from the varying factions.
Dunbar anyone?
what nomination did Dunbar win?
National Committeewoman and escalated RPV Blood pressure at two nominations.
Because our RPV uses the state conventions as a revenue stream, the emphasis is on box office. (I often pay extra for the VIP Meet & Greet with the two Johns and bonus merch.)
Our district conventions are like mass meetings but with more people in less comfortable seats.
Since we have no actual criteria for attendance, and no real limit on attendees, it’s like a primary but infinitely more boring.
So, we can have a bunch of new/non Republicans choosing our nominees in a long boring event that costs us money and sucks at least a day out of our lives (plus travel.) or we can have a primary that costs the taxpayers money and we vote for 5 minutes 10 minutes away from the house.
The Cruzcinelli Cabal and Tea Party du jour prefer “conventions” where they can focus groups of people to overwhelm and the Establishment moderates prefer the primary where the Fringe strength is diluted by the sheer number of primary voters.
Helluva way to run a railroad eh?
With conventions only high information voters bother to attend and vote.
You’ve been to our conventions right?
High information voters being the the ones that support your candidate and low information voters being the ones that don’t?
Conventions are supposed to be representative, not sampled.
Understanding that the party elites want to pick candidates for us, I’m liking California’s ‘jungle primaries”
“The California primary is a free-for-all.
Voters can pick any candidate, regardless of party, and the top two
vote-getters will advance to the general election.” https://www.npr.org/2018/06/05/617250124/how-californias-jungle-primary-system-works
It removes some of the party controls and gives it to regular citizens.
Cue the elite: “Oh the horror How can the proletariats think for themselves?!”
Party elites — the country club, crust-less white bread cucumber sandwich with mayonnaise crowd who know they are superior to you (as The Conservative Treehouse calls them).
There are very strong reasons to preserve and protect the two party system, civilization, democracy, that kind of stuff.
We have a tool as an alternative to the CONvention and PRYmerry is the Canvass or Firehouse Primary. But this takes some effort and work — which makes the RPV SCC sad.
We have elites on the right and the left, we get constantly told here how the masses are asses.
This makes a lot of sense fairfax has a population of 1.1 million. Having been there before, there is no way there are nearly 40 thousand republicans.
How about 40 thousand who are now supporting an American agenda and President Trump?
Maybe some are disgusted with illegal immigration and those legislators who foster it’s growth in NO Virginia (nova)?
You are correct. Only a small part of Fairfax is in the 10th. Us Democrats in the 11th and 8th (Arlington + Alexandria) had no Democratic primary and thus were free to vote for Corey.
How did you guys coordinate this? Through the party, or was the word just put out to fellow travelers?
I don’t think there was any coordinated effort. The Democrats who showed up at my 11th district precinct in Fairfax seemed confused and surprised that there was no Democratic primary. Some left without voting. Some asked for info on the three candidates and went in and voted.
And so the Dems intuitively saw the guy with the highest name recognition as the easier challenge to overcome? IT was a universal organic repulsion to Corey, a ‘Judge Roy Moore’ moment and they perceived Nick as a clear and present political danger? And what about EW? They weren’t about to vote for the black guy that had already lost statewide office?
Almost an unplanned , unrehearsed, Election Day Intelligent Design.
Operation Order???
Again, low information voters carry the day.
They could only remember the two-syllable names they could spell. And well, Shak Hill was two words and broke their system.
Democrats are easily confused.
But Corey didn’t win Arlington or Alexandria.
So there is only less than half a percent Republicans in Fairfax? Or is my math off?
That seems to jibe with what I’ve seen.
It appears that Virginians are “rebelling” to the transplant Republicans that are here to just farm and harvest votes to get elected so as to become wealthier.
what does that even mean?
Means that the packing of federal workforce and refugees into Virginia may not quite be the panacea desired by the left.
American Woodworker posts are multi-layered and well-feathered.
Roc,
I honestly do not see Republicans advancing past their own noses by claims of Dems swinging elections or illegal aliens voting.
There are always dems meddling and non-voters voting — we have to win past the margin of cheat — we have to counter any monkeybusiness while still making sales.
Look at Gillespie he was not here to represent Virginia or Virginians but the RNC
Remember: EG x EG = EG squared — Even Greater Economic Growth — it’s all in the logo.