The fundamentals, and the candidates, suggest that this Senate campaign is about to get close, and that Ed Gillespie is going to rapidly turn this race into a turnout contest.[read_more]
For months we’ve been reading about polls showing Mark Warner with more than a 20 point lead on Ed Gillespie. This is unsurprising, and as much as Democrats and other naysayers want to believe otherwise, it was a reflection neither on the strength of Mark Warner as a candidate nor on any weakness on Gillespie’s part. It has simply been a matter of focus and name ID.
We know this because these same polls suggest hardly anyone knew who Ed Gillespie was. Unlike readers of The Bull Elephant (who are, of course, the most intelligent residents of the Commonwealth), the vast majority of people have never followed politics closely enough to have any idea who Ed is, nor what his former roles have been. (Did I mention that our readers are also the best looking Virginians?)

The President and his Virginia Handmaiden
The Roanoke College poll in July had Warner +25 over Gillespie. But, at that time, fully 75% of poll respondents didn’t know enough about him to form an opinion. By contrast, in the most recent poll from Quinnipiac that shows the race narrowing to single digits (Warner +9), only 37% of respondents said they didn’t know enough about Gillespie. And 37% is still a WHOLE LOT of people left to reach; the same poll shows that only 11% of people don’t know anything about Mark Warner.
And therein lies Gillespie’s opportunity, and Warner’s shield. Whichever candidate can define Gillespie to that roughly 1/3rd of the electorate that hasn’t tuned it yet will determine how the race turns out.
Gillespie’s efforts have clearly been closing the gap, but until just now those efforts haven’t even included airtime in the vote-rich and very expensive Northern Virginia media market (no doubt the cause of some NoVa residents describing this race as “sleepy” or “lackluster”). His strategy has been working, and Ed is just now ready to sprint to the finish line.
So what do I mean when I suggest the “fundamentals” of this race weigh in Ed’s favor? Kind of the same thing I meant last year, when I said that despite all of the money and negativity directed toward the GOP ticket, and despite really bad poll numbers, the fundamentals tilted in Cuccinelli’s direction. Those fundamentals didn’t quite overcome the transient negatives, but Ken kept it a lot closer than anyone almost anyone predicted.
This year, we’re in a similar situation, but are seeing NOWHERE NEAR the obstacles we nearly overcame last year. Ed Gillespie and company took full account of what Ken Cuccinelli did in the last few weeks of last year’s campaign, when he nearly came from way behind to win: he hung Obamacare around the Democrats’ necks like a boat anchor.
Fundamentally, Virginians (especially those voting in non-Presidential years) have a profound distaste for the president’s healthcare disaster. As more people begin to understand Mark Warner’s personal culpability in that, not only will that 37% number start to shrink, but most of those folks are going to break Gillespie’s way–just like we’re seeing in other races around the country.
It is advertisements like this that are going to make that happen in Virginia:
Nationally, Democrats aren’t as energized this year as they have been, and even less so in Virginia with the under-the-radar, sprint-to-the-finish race Gillespie has run, which has some folks lulled into a sense that the campaign is already over.
But here’s the October surprise: the campaign is just now getting started, at a time when Mark Warner is going to be too tangled up in Obamacare, with poll numbers below 50% and an unenergized base, to be able to beat back the national wave Ed Gillespie is about to surf.
Will it be enough for Ed to win? Maybe. But it is certainly enough to get this Republican excited about the prospect.
27 comments
Just wait for the real October Surprise to drop on Warner. I almost feel sorry for him (and actually do feel sorry for his wife and kids, but he brought this upon himself.)
::sigh:: I’m not seeing anything closing, not gap is being bridged here. I’m seeing a weak, centrist, campaign that is more focused on trying to get Republicans in Democrat strongholds like NOVA coming out in force. Here’s the thing, we. don’t. win. statewide. elections. in. NOVA! Period, the end, goodbye, end of story. That’s a rookie mistake! Yard signs and heavy work in the other sides’ stronghold nets AT BEST, a single digit loss without a massive wave election. That’s with some Dems coming out to vote for the Republican. It’s a failing strategy, not a winning one.
What the campaign needs to do is focus on the areas it can win or make a draw in WITHOUT blowing millions of bucks. For example, here are the bellwethers: http://www.vpap.org/updates/show/1701 The campaign needs to focus on the small suburban and rural area,. not Fairfax, Arlington, and other such areas. Henrico might be winnable though.
Republican wins in NOVA areas are dependent on the personal vote and Ed doesn’t have it. On the other hand, most small suburban and rural areas lean red and Ed has a good shot at winning those places.
Also, Ed needs to yank more of his base out. VA Beach and Southwest Virginia are red strongholds, I can you tell that at least Southwest Virginia isn’t very happy with Ed right now, and his campaign events are poorly staffed and badly attended because he is losing Republican support down there due to his lackluster campaign.
Last week, my Congressman, Morgan Griffith, reminded a group of us helping GOTV for Ed — “When I ran against Rick Boucher in 2010, the pollsters called me 18 points down on October 1. Now they call me Congressman.”
That’s my little ray of sunshine.
On the other hand, my inner Eeyore reminds me that Morgan beat Boucher over the head with “Cap and Trade,” which Boucher helped draft. Ed seems afraid to wield similar cudgels with a similar vigor. (And yes, I get Ed’s Facebook feed, his campaign e-mails, and I periodically search the internet for info on his campaign). I don’t get it.
it was a Congressional wave. will we see a US Senate wave? in Virginia?
I hear that Mr. Gillespe has not yet responded to the Virginia Citizens’ Defense League questionnaire on his support for gun rights. He won’t get the vote of this gun owner without completing that survey.
I got 4 people who normally do not vote to sign up for absentee ballots. They are handicapped, old and didn’t have anyone to explain the process. Check your elders, help them vote so Ed can defeat the incumbent!
I hope they have driver licenses or a different form of official ID. Would not want them to get caught up in the republican movement to disenfranchise democratic voters
I got 8 for Ed and yes I am glad about it.
make sure they bring drivers licenses
I wish Sen. Warner would attach himself even more so to Pres. Obama, and ObamaCare.
Double down. Then after he wins by double digits, anybody who is not lying to themselves will see that The Republican Party cannot win statewide election under it’s current Liberal, Socialist, Corporate controlled, big government, big spending doctrine.
And in the event of a highly unlikely loss, I would learn something. Remember this, if Sen. Warner wins big, and the R’s do not take the Senate majority, ObamCare will more than likely cease to be an issue the Republicans can run on.
It will become an issue they will run in to.
Steve, if I were in Vegas, would bet everything I own on Warner winning by double digits. Your logic is something many candidates behind wish for but rarely happens.
I’ll take that bet. Warner may win but it will not be anywhere close to double digits. Gillespie’s campaign has been weak so far, and Steve is right about one thing. This race is about at the exact same spot as the Cuccinelli/McAuliffe/Sarvis race was last year. The difference is that I don’t see Conservative republicans actively supporting the Democrat in this race like I say Moderate Republicans supporting McAuliffe.
As much as the pollsters and the Democrats want to deny it, there is a Republican wave coming this year. All you have to do is look at the fact that New Hampshire, Michigan, and Minnesota are the new battlegrounds to know it’s coming. That wave could very easily take Gillespie over the top.
The Quinnipiac poll is a sole outlier in the Real Politics Index although NYT/CBS does show Gillespie down 15 which is some improvement from were he has lingered since early summer. Hard to understand why they appear so far out of the pack which has him down 15-20 points. I guess if you want to lay your bet on they have found data points that demonstrate him closing the gap rather significantly over a fairly short timeframe you have every right to do so but something in this group of polling results is seriously out of order. Be interested to see if the other poll providers confirm the Quinnipiac single digit results in the near term.
Losers always pick and choose their datapoints. Like you said, 10 pollsters have Warner winning by mid-teens to low 20s. One poll has him “only” winning by 9 points. Republicans look at the one poll out of eleven and say “that’s the one”.
Even though Gillespie is still loosing big. That’s their best poll, an outlier that still shows a landslide.
“…it may come down to what turnout model you believe is most germaine regarding the 2014 mid-terms…”
I’m choosing to believe the one where disgust with Obama and his allies is so intense on Nov 4 it creates a national wave in favor of Republicans, putting something stiff in Ed’s weak tea. Though I’d prefer Ed put something in himself.
All I see is a huge “meh”. To me, Gillespie’s material is lackluster and uninspiring. Most of his campaign message is unspecific/vague. “I’ll work to create jobs because jobs are cool”. Under the guidance of his current campaign staff, I’m afraid we’re looking at another squishy “centrist” loss.
If you want to read about the real Ed Gillespie, read his book, “Winning Right”, He tells a lot about himself in the first few pages and if you can’t believe what the man says about himself well????????????? He talks about his Health Care program etc. Interesting read. I wonder if the 67 Senators and Delegates read it before they came BEFORE he won the nomination to endorse him????
Laughable, Gillespie wants my vote and I’m supposed to read his book to what kind of man he is? Lackluster candidate running a lackluster campaign… shocker, the Republican establishment puts up another squishy centrist candidate.
We’re seeing this across MANY of the establishment candidates…speak softly, don’t offend, don’t boldly stand for anything…hope to just squeak over the finish line without anyone noticing.
Its pathetic how weak and timid the GOP has become, largely.
I too wish we were running a bolder campaign. Gillespie is a fine conservative who would make us proud in the US Senate.
I have to disagree. I have no evidence Gillespie is a “fine conservative”. His lack of boldness with his campaign may be indicative of how he will be in the senate (go along to get along and not make waves). I’m no fan of Warner, but Gillespie has given me no reason to leave my house on election day.
What guarantee do we have he won’t be a rubber stamp for that RINO McConnell from KY? Just because you have an “R” after your name does in no way mean you are a conservative.
Really? You don’t see any difference between how Harry Reid runs the Senate and how Mitch McConnell would run it? You have no problem with Harry Reid? He should be reason enough to get you to the polls.
Yes really. McConnell is a hack and like Boehner in the House part of the problem. Big Govt Republicans are just as bad as the Democrats. The only difference between the two is the speed they get to trashing the Republic. I think these guys (McConnell and Boehner) are perfectly content being a minority party. They’ve proved they can’t be trusted with their big spending, big government ways when in power during the Bush years.
Gillespie and his campaign is a yawner. So I’m supposed to vote for him because he’s NOT Mark Warner? How about he give me a reason to vote FOR him. I’ve read Ed’s website… blah, blah, blah. Same old regurgitated talking points.
As I have proven before Gillespie is no “fine conservative”, he is a Karl Rove stooge, best buddies, worked for him. Ed is a crony capitalist.
Candidates that meet your standards are rarely electable.
I assume in your next post that you will define what my standards are, and that when I protest, you will tell me that you know what my standards are better than I do.
Well done.
Bingo! The guy has not motivated me to get off the couch. His entire campaign selling point is, “I’m not a Democrat.” So what? You’re probably a run of the mill RINO from what I can tell. Tell us you support gun rights. Tell us some real specifics and tell it with conviction. Why should I care about you? Why are you better than the gutless RINOs?