The poll surveyed 1,167 registered voters in Virginia, and found that a significant “loyalty gap” would exist between the Republican and Democrat presidential frontrunners among their respective base voters, should they both be nominated.
About 90% of Democrats who voted in their March 1 primary say they’d back Hillary Clinton if she defeats Bernie Sanders to win the nomination. By contrast, only 67% of Republican primary voters said they would back Trump.
Interestingly, 25% of all Republicans suggested they would vote for Hillary or a third-party candidate before they’d vote for Trump. This is worse than simply staying home. Republican voters who sit on their couches rather than get out to support the nominee make it very hard for Republicans to win elections. Republicans who get up off that couch to go vote for the Democrat candidate make it essentially impossible for the GOP to win.
It’s unclear to what extent this disenchantment with the frontrunner could affect Republicans running for Congress in Virginia this year. The likelihood that incumbents in competitive districts would be harmed by being on the same ticket as Donald Trump means that those incumbents will likely take steps to publicly distance themselves from him in an effort to stave off defeat. This, in turn, would exacerbate the split within the Party, and put pressure on other elected officials and party leaders to pick sides.
The poll shows Hillary Clinton trouncing Donald Trump in Virginia by 11 points, far more than the the 4-point Virginia loss suffered by Mitt Romney in 2012.
How do we avoid this outcome? There are only two ways. First, Donald Trump could reinvent himself into a candidate that was attractive to a much larger segment of the electorate than currently feel like they could support him. This seems unlikely to happen, though Trump has consistently been underestimated over the past year, so maybe he can pull it off. But, in any case, this is beyond our control.
What’s not beyond our control is option 2: nominate someone other than Trump. In Virginia, each of the 11 Congressional Districts will have Republican conventions this month and in May to elect three delegates each to the Republican National Convention in July. Virginia’s delegation will be bound in proportion to the results of the March 1 primary, but only on the first ballot of the convention. If Trump doesn’t have a majority of those bound votes on the first ballot, Virginia’s delegates will be free to choose between any of the candidates qualified to have their names placed into nomination. That’s why who our national delegates are is of the utmost importance.
Those whom we choose to be delegates to our national convention could, quite literally, mean the difference between victory and defeat this November.
41 comments
All I know is that, I will do no door knocking, telephone calling, voter registration., for Cruz. I am. A hard worker, I have won many awards for the above. I am the action. Not just the talk.
Those who would not vote for Trump, fine and dandy.
As for me, if anyone other than Trump or Cruz is on the ballot, I will not vote in the national.
If Ryan, Romney, or Kasich is the nominee, I will be looking forward to watching the hacks at Fox News and the RNC whining about the destruction of the GOP. It will be a joy to watch.
Vast majority of republicans that will not vote for Trump if he gets the nomination are northern Virginia republicans that are on the government gravy train. Guess you can call them, perhaps this blog, the Comstock rebellion. It is all about them and their gravy all the time.
If any other Republican declared candidate was winning, as Trump has for the past 9 months, you would be slam dunking the nomination and declaring victory in November. I thought this website would be a little more balanced and fair. I’m removing this website as a favorite. Sometimes people get what they “need” and not necessarily what they want.
Mike Smith… Trump has not won yet. Any other candidate in similar circumstances would also not have won yet. That Trump and Cruz are the frontrunners shows that primary voters (and convention delegates and caucus attendees) nationwide and in Virginia are not going to accept “any Republican candidate”.
THIS is why I am going to my Congressional convention and the state convention. I will only vote for Trump supporters.
TDS is still alive and well here at TBE. Yep, ALL those people who voted for Trump have now magically now grown disenchanted. So please, RPV, won’t you broker/steal/corrupt the process for Cruz in Harrisonburg?!/sarc
Because THE PEOPLE are too damn dumb to decide! ~ So sad to see TBE actually BECOME the Establishment before my very eyes.
You do understand that the state and district conventions are part of this process don’t you? And that your primary vote only gets Trump proportional support on the first ballot?
Many of them don’t understand that, Amy; they’re like people who think they can call AAA when their car breaks down on the highway, even though they’ve never paid dues.
Then pay for your little conventions yourself instead of pushing taxpayers to foot for open primaries. In fact, you can expect a huge outpouring for changes in the way these presidential primaries are being held, regardless of whether Trump gets dumped or not. Corporate United has overstepped their position as ‘just another citizen’ when they began directly controlling party processes.
I agree, mezurak. The parties should pay for their own nomination process and the state can foot the bill for the general.
I agree that parties should pay for their own processes.
In my recent encounter our I think that our local Republicans are screening delegate applicants , just can’t decide if it is to kill the VAST Trump support or to keep McKelvey from the Congressional 5th and make sure that Garrett gets it.
To bad Republicans are not looking to support the Citizens who are fed up with corruption within the local R parties and complicity whithin our reps,
My Trump sign will remain in my yard even if the R take the nomination from the people.
Broker someone else and see where that gets them ,
Mitt happens twice , if they keep eating their own ther will be Mitt all over the place.
The RPV is taking chicken crap and trying to serve us chicken salad.
Republicans will loose if Trump is not nominated , other Republicans do not know how to talk to the self made working class Republicans and fear the jobsite to walk up on to get this support.
I do not support the crying lying RPV election machine , election machine is all they are.
The candidacy of Trump has been about the worst thing that could have happened to the Republican party. We thought that we were getting a straight talking businessman who would insist that our immigration laws be enforced and our enemies destroyed. Instead we got a policy-challenged, emotionally immature braggart who stays up at night tweeting insults. I am a loyal conservative Republican who donates considerable time and money to campaigns, but I find nothing but fear and loathing for Trump among my friends. We feel no guilt whatsoever for our insistence that the Republican standard bearer be a man of dignity and wisdom.
No worry after Trump crucifies Cruz in New York all these polls will again have no real meaning.
I am always suspect of a poll that is gathering data for a election that is 8 months away.
Be suspect of any poll. They all have bias, especially the “university” ones. Don’t most of us go out of our way to stay away from pollsters? They’re all products of those willing to participate. Most Trump supporters I know are keeping that fact to themselves.
Virginia is blue and will go for Hillary. That’s the purpose of having McAuliffe as our governor.
And when do we get to see a poll of how many Republican’s will refuse to support, or vote for Hillary if Cruz gets the nomination?
Can there any doubt how much influence the establishment has on blogs?
I can’t see me voting for any of the 5 candidates/clowns still running.
Do you even know what you’re looking for? We have a populist, a Constitutional conservative, a progressive, a socialist, and a 1960’s democrat still in the hunt. Something for everyone.
Populist? Which one?
Party populistism is who we are commanded to support.
What is the process for obtaining this data? Sometimes I think they just make it up and print it and see if people buy it or not.. which has been happening for a year or so. Why is it all of the sudden credible and above reproach?
This is an excellent “flush out piece” for anyone interested as it brings the current status of the Republican party of Virginia into clear focus. First, there are the so called 25% that call themselves Republicans (not just voting base but party leaders and elected officials) that would vote the democratic presidential ticket if Trump is the nominee. They should in fact be receiving one of State Chair Whitman’s cease and desist missives along with prompt removal from party office or elected party designation, as far less political statements (or lack thereof), have generated this result in the past. Of course this is not going to happen.
Then it exposes the party lurkers, that is those that say the right words for public and media consumption but are more then willing to encourage bound delegates to abandon their candidate if they fall 50-100 delegates short of the first roll call vote for a more “qualified”, meaning acceptable to them, choice. Let’s not work together to put a candidate with a massive popular vote tabulation and a significant lead in actual delegates awarded over the top, no this is really our opportunity to pull the rug out from under a hated individual. Pitiful, stupid and catastrophic because the only thing that will likely be destroyed is the Republican Party. Trump will just go back to his billions which will generally alleviate any long term suffering I can assure you
If you want to see were the bottom of the Republican barrel resides this latter group is the class. But of course this will all be done for the noblest of reasons and declarations. Ask yourself how many typical everyday voters will put their faith in the word or ability of this party to govern in the future? Does anyone with a single degree of political common sense expect that Trump supporters will be lining up in the general election having seen this unfold at the convention after a won and done first round roll call at the convention by stalking horse state delegates. Bobby Jindal was correct right up front and all the way back in Iowa we are the stupid party.
I always read your posts with interest, Lawrence, and appreciate the excellent points you often make. There are a few things about this one I don’t understand.
Donald Trump is pulling in under 40% of the total primary vote. 60% of voters have at one time or another voted for a candidate other than Trump. I gather you think Trump should receive the nomination even though he’s never polled a majority. It sounds as if you’ve decided that any outcome that doesn’t give Trump the nomination is tainted, in spite of the fact that he may never be able to get a majority of delegates to vote for him. Is that based solely on your fear that unless Trump’s minority supporters are appeased the GOP ceases to exist?
Second, I only check in here periodically these days, so I may have missed a comment where you explained why you think Trump will be a good president, and what you expect him to accomplish. I’d like to hear that. I’m mostly curious about why you are willing to overlook the clear fact that Trump has no political principles. Do you see that as a feature, not a bug, which will enable him to craft deals with the Uniparty that will solve intractable problems we face now, like illegal immigration, ObamaCare, a SCOTUS and federal judiciary which keeps undermining our founding documents?
Is it Trump’s flexibility on these issues, the fact that he’ll be guided by pragmatism rather than by political principles that wins you over? It can’t be his record, which puts him all sides of all issues. As late as 2012, for example, he called Romney’s suggestion that illegals self deport “maniacal and mean spirited.” It’s clear he’ll approach all problems and issues with a finger in the wind and only vague understanding of and respect for Constitutional principles. So what gives?
Your Most Humble and Respectful Servant, …
I don’t actually support Trump in the manner you imply and never have, my issues rest with the process of this nomination event as it has unfolded and the nature of the party at both the national and state levels and it’s willingness to apply selective pressure and rather remarkable dismissive rhetoric to those working and middle class American voters that do find something that resonates in his opposition to the establishment’s hypocrisy, which seems to be becoming a mainstay of Republican politics. As for his principles I find little to appeal to me on a personal level but I believe it’s more then fair to say this entire primary cycle has not been predicated on any type of policy discussions by any of the candidates. Frankly it appears that people are so disgusted that no one is really listening anymore.
Think for one second if the monies, energy and media ranting that has been directed at Donald Trump by the stalwart base of Republican leadership had been directed instead to a more productive venture such as a sincere apology to the Republican voter that provided them their Congressional majorities (which they in turn completely betrayed by total abandonment of each and every commitment made in lieu of that support) and a meaningful plan to redirect the parties’ effort and energies to recover the US economy and stem the tide of destruction of the American middle class where we would be stand today. The parties growing deterioration can’t be placed at the door of a single candidate and it won’t be stemmed by a single pseudo savior.
This trajectory of decline is very clearly accelerating and the parties’ future is in real jeopardy and yet we still can’t seem to bring ourselves to that logical conclusion to put rancor and serial manipulation aside and if Trump comes close to securing his delegate count with a significant national popular vote just swallow the bile and help him move forward. What is the other option being courted and espoused, to engage in a continued bitter open convention conflict, that seals the fate on an already hemorrhaging Republican Party.
I can live with Trump, I can’t live with the disintegration of any active working political opposition (as poor as that has been among Republicans over the past few decades) to the forces of open progressive socialism that seem to be winning the hearts and minds of far too many of the voting political uninformed. I fear for the Republic in the hands of yet one more go along to get along establishment candidate after Trump and Cruz lie spent on the convention floor far more then I fear the impact of pushing Donald Trump over the finish line. In my opinion so should you.
“…if Trump comes close to securing his delegate count with a significant national popular vote just swallow the bile and help him move forward.”
I don’t see moving Trump “forward’ as doing anything other than nominating a candidate who will make deals with the Uniparty, schmooze with it, and fold himself into it — not much will change. That’s what Trump’s history predicts, and no one seems able to explain why he will suddenly change his personality upon becoming president. The way I see it, Trump’s making deals will likewise bring about the dissolution of a Republican party which can stop “progressive socialism,” more likely transforming it into an organization advancing a right-of center socialism.
It may be because of my own limitations in experience and imagination, but I likewise can’t see how a Ted Cruz nomination — on the second ballot, for instance — necessarily has to “seal the fate on an already hemorrhaging Republican Party.” It might hemorrhage Trump followers, but few of them seem to care about the survival of the Republican party or the conservative movement anyway. At least a Cruz nomination has the added benefit of a proven conservative and proven fighter who will not schmooze and fold into the Uniparty, and may at least be able to steer the party back to its oppositional, conservative heritage.
I do share what seems your chief concern — the GOP-E finding a way to parachute in a candidate which is neither Trump nor Cruz. I know I’d be looking around for a third party to join if that happened, And I know that would probably not be enough to save the Republic either.
Cheers,
David, Cruz will in my opinion never see the required delegate count to over come his shortfall. This seems to be a hope of many conservatives and they can’t accept the possibility that a drawn out, inconclusive floor duel between a close Trump and a more distant Cruz (delegate wise) serves no winning purpose besides enhancing the more frequently heard argument of late to walk in an outside candidate more palatable to the establishment agenda. It’s quite Machiavellian in fact if you can appreciate the employment of cunning and duplicity in political statecraft (I for one don’t).
The delegate count just doesn’t work for him and I for one believe he realizes that fact which is disappointing to me. The parties’ establishment wing hates Cruz more then Trump and its not the conservatives that will be back loading the primary delegate pool with credentialed convention attendees that are willing to be “flexible” in outer roll calls in a contested event, it’s the state parties. We will see who is right or wrong this summer but I will go on record to state if they can thwart Trump early on in a close but still deficient delegate count roll call process Cruz will still never see the nomination and convention chair Paul Ryan and his establishment colleagues will be sitting in the catbird seat.
“… I will go on record to state if they can thwart Trump early on in a
close but still deficient delegate count roll call process Cruz will
still never see the nomination and convention chair Paul Ryan will be
sitting in the catbird seat.”
Oh yes, I can see that happening. My response is what I’ve said before — I don’t see a Trump nomination or a Ryan nomination changing the Republican party in a way that stops our slide into Uniparty big-government socialism. A decision between those two simply determines which gang gets to keep the loot.
I can’t see that happening.
While I agree with almost nothing Mr. Woods writes, I’m encouraged to find a dedicated Trump supporter who writes in full sentences and with the caps lock off. Well done.
I believe you may have a reading comprehension issue as I’ve never stated at any time on this blog on any other writing I do that I am a dedicated Trump supporter. I believe you may well be that case in point regarding many Cruz supporters comprehending your environment in an echo chamber of your own preconceptions.
You Trump apologists don’t have to utter the words “I support Trump” to make your support obvious.
lol, shades of McCarthyism alive and well at the Bull Elephant
ROFL, alive and well shade?
“At least a Cruz nomination has the added benefit of a proven conservative and proven fighter who will not schmooze and fold into the Uniparty, and may at least be able to steer the party back to its oppositional, conservative heritage”.
I truly wish I could share your and many others conviction on that statement but I don’t. Politics today is increaslingly sleight of hand and you need to take the time which many people in their busy lives do not have to dig a little into the facts. Cruz in his national elected Senate role has largely been a conservative proselytizer with little to no legislative track record to point to although his long term support of the expansion of lower-wage H-1B guest-workers by universities and their partners, including many companies is disturbing, as these companies’ demand for foreign white-collar guest workers is so high that they have reached the 85,000 annual quota just two weeks after the yearly process began April 1 of this year.
This is a direct cost management tool misused by many high tech firms in particular to close out job opportunities for America’s college graduates. He can dance around this as he has done during his campaign but the issue of his support has a long audit trail. But let’s just put that aside as an area of disagreement in a field of many other policies that to date remember he has only talked about and not produced any tangible actions regarding.
Let’s look at something more grounded, as in who as the conservative candidate, he has surrounded himself with as part of his campaign team. I’ll give you three examples but there are others.
Let’s start with Cruz’s financial adviser Neil Bush who was in the thick of the 1980s saving and loan debacle with the Denver based Silverado Savings and Loan collapse that cost taxpayers $1.3 billion in “bailout payments” and allowed Neil to walk away from criminal charges with a Brush crony provided out of court settlement against him and fellow Silverado directors. In 1999 Neil co-founded Ignite! Learning, an educational software corporation that has enriched itself and him off of brother Jeb’s endless push of Common Core along with his buddy oligarch Boris Berezovsky, a political enemy of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who at the time of his death had been under indictment for fraud in Russia and was an investor in Bush’s Ignite! program since at least 2003.
Then there was the 1999 transaction when Neil made over $798,000 on three stock trades in a single day on a company where he had been employed as a consultant. The company, Kopin Corporation of Taunton, Massachusetts, announced on the very day of the trades the “good news” about a new Asian client that sent its stock value soaring. Neil stated that it was all just a coincidence and as part of the Bush clan the SEC just let him walk away with the cash. Plain and simple insider trading that you or I would have seen jail time over.
OR
Lets look at Cruz economic policy adviser Phil Gramm, former chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. During his tenure he spearheaded efforts to pass banking deregulation legislation, including the landmark Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999, which removed laws separating banking, insurance and brokerage activities and “directly” led to the 2007-2009 housing market collapse in the United States and the ultimate largest financial services taxpayer based “bailout” in US history and an economic, employment and deficit catastrophe we still suffer under today.
OR;
As a change of pace lets look at one of his most visible front men in the ongoing US cultural wars, Cruz spokesman Glen Beck, a proven and consistent conspiracy theorist with a troubled past of substance abuse and lying. Beck has taken on the socio-cultural religious role of determining exactly who is and who is not a Christian (evangelical or otherwise for the Cruz campaign) based on support of or lack of support for Cruz’s presidential candidacy.
The fact that Beck is a Mormon passing these religious judgments on theological grounds for the Cruz team seems to just fly over the heads of Cruz’s Pentecostalist supporters. Frankly given Beck’s very public and well documented (all the way back to the endless shifting tales he tells regarding his mother’s death) behaviors he needs a mental health intervention not a spokesman’s role for a presidential candidate running for the Republican nomination.
Granted I have limited experience in this area but someone whose team I did have the opportunity to work with in Iowa and someone I consider a true conservative based on an established legislative record wasn’t consulting and bring on board his policy and advisory team these type of individuals.
This group (excepting Beck and his idiosyncratic lunacies) would fit right into a Jeb Bush campaign team without a hiccup. Conservatism today is increasingly about self acclamation and convenience which is why so many are turning their backs on the philosophy – all talk no delivery. For me if Ted Cruz were a used car on the lot I think I would pass but each has to look at the facts and make their own choice.
[Chuckle]. So, Lawrence, when I asked you give us a reason to heed your impassioned plea that we all line up behind Trump and his minority, your response was that you didn’t necessarily support Trump, but only have concerns about “the process.” Now, without being asked, you compose a long attack on Ted Cruz’s conservative bona fides, seeking to undermine his candidacy. I think Louis Hensler’s comment above shows that game is up.
What truly sums up the weirdness of this campaign season, from the Republican side, is that to believe Donald Trump will oppose the Uniparty, you have to believe his entire opportunistic life up to now has just been a mask, a plot, to reach the point where he can reveal his true identity as an outsider who can save the country from the Uniparty. Likewise, to believe that Ted Cruz is an Establishment tool, you have to believe that for his part, he has pretended to be a Constitutional conservative all his life, just so he could reach the point where he betray those principles in grand fashion in the White House.
I’m coming to think God is making us crazy so we craft our own destruction.
You mean I have to shallow Ted Cruz and his inconsistencies or I’m lumped a “Trumpee”. Not much of a horizon in that style of conservative thinking mind set is there? Sounds a lot more like how the Progressives operate. Your either with us or your one of the “bad” guys. The simple and plain fact is I don’t buy into Ted Cruz’s bona fides and while I may be in a small minority I’m not alone among several long time conservatives I keep in contact with across the country that finds something off about him and his style.
Far be it from me to argue with someone else’s feelings or intuition about a candidate. For myself, I’ve always based my judgements on what a person does, not what they say, and not whether I like their personality.
I’ve known some amazing politicians who are disarming and charming. They can look you in the eye and tell you they are going to do what you ask without giving you the slightest feeling they are lying to you. They’re remarkably manipulative and can easily gain other people’s trust. It’s amazing to experience it. They are usually charming psychopaths or sociopaths.
So I prefer to look at their records and life behavior. That’s what told me as early as 2007 that Barack Obama was an extreme leftist who hated America.
Some thoughtful people think Trump will be able to pick off disaffected Bernie supporters.
Not likely … the majority of the anti-Trump demonstrators at Trump’s rallies are carrying Bernie signs.
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