Tomorrow is the long-awaited party canvass in the 10th Congressional district to select the nominee to succeed retiring Rep. Frank Wolf. After tomorrow, all of the sniping, backbiting, holier-than-thou proclamations of ideological purity (or impurity, depending on the direction) will stop, and Republicans will begin to train their fire on the Democrat nominee, John Foust.
Until then, everyone wants to know how it will turn out. Here at The Bull Elephant we’ve been paying close attention to the race, and two of us actually live in the district. As you can see from the divergent opinions below, though, we can come at this kind of analysis from remarkably different perspectives. The one constant: everyone here agrees that Barbara Comstock will win the nomination. The real question seems to be, by how much?
Here’s what we think:
Jeanine Martin
With 6 candidates in this race predictions are difficult, my best guess (and that’s all it is):
Comstock 44%
Marshall 32%
Lind 10%
Hollingshead 10%
Wasinger 2%
Savitt 2%
Brian Reynolds
I believe Comstock will capture just over 50%.
Comstock 54%
Marshall 22%
Lind 8%
Hollingshead 8%
Wasinger 4%
Savitt 2%
None/Write-in 2%
Steve Albertson
Money isn’t everything, and Bob Marshall will prove that, outperforming conventional wisdom and expectations, while Howie Lind will end up spending the most under-performing dollars per-vote.
Comstock 39%
Marshall 30%
Hollingshead 13%
Lind 10%
Wasinger 6%
Savitt 2%
Alexis Rose Bank
My predictions on these things always seem to reflect my biases, so I’m going to attempt to compensate for them with these:
Comstock 53%
Marshall 29%
Lind 8%
Hollingshead 7%
Savitt < 1%
Wasinger < 1%
None/Write-in 1%
What’s your prediction? How close does Marshall come? Is there an upset waiting to happen? Who finishes higher, Lind or Hollingshead? Tell us!
39 comments
Looks like Brian and Alexis were very close in their predictions, good job.
We had 13,609 voters participate in the 10th District Canvass, outperforming the Democrats in the 2013 state run primary that had approx 11,000 voters (in the 10th). No expense to the tax payers and capturing thousands of contacts of committed Republicans. This process works.
Looks like Alexis came the closest
Can’t believe no one has figured out who The Elusive “Whoseinger” and his sock-puppets is really working for. Hint: it’s not who he’s been viciously attacking.
I’m going to go with my favorite response, Sarah Palin?
Unless it is a landslide, then Barb 60%, Marshall 30%, Has-runs (10%
Snow White 45%–Dwarf #1 (Marshall) 30%–Dwarf #2 (Hollinghead) 15%–Dwarfs # 3-5 (Lind, Savitt, Whoseinger) 10%
+1 for the literary reference
For what it’s worth, I spent the evening at a musical event in Western Loudoun where the conservation turned to the primary. Four of the five people who were voting were voting for Bob Marshall, and one for Barbara Comstock. Not at all surprising for Western Loudoun. Folks are very conservative out here!
Comstock 65%
Marshall 20%
Hollingshead 7%
Lind 3%
Savitt 3%
Wasinger 2%
I would be proud to have any one of these Republicans as the nominee. But I think Barbara Comstock is the better fit for winning the district, even though I think Bob Marshall would make a better conservative Congressman.
And because of that, I don’t think that Barbara Comstock’s likely victory is any reflection on Bob Marshall. I think everyone just sees that she fits the district and she can beat back the “war on women” gambit. I hope that Bob Marshall fills the next best vacancy.
She is not better for the a Shenandoah Valley.. Nor across it.
whoever is organizing this thing sucks. I’m a registered republican who has never missed an election, and I never even heard of this “firehouse” election until I received a flyer in the mail two days ago from one candidate (yes, just ONE).
From Bob?
Um, you are not a registered Republican in Virginia. We do not have registration by party in this state. Please try to know something before you hurl invective at people–people who are Republican volunteers working very hard at organizing a smooth process, and who have spent tens of thousands of dollars advertising and promoting this private (i.e., not taxpayer funded) election.
And if you’ve just now heard of it, you haven’t been reading newspapers, watching TV, listening to the radio, or reading any local online news sources. If you’ve only gotten one mailer, it’s likely because you haven’t participated in any recent Republican-only primary events or other party activities, and the candidate got your name from some other list (like a church group or something).
Well said, and spot on. I wonder how many primary elections this guy has voted in; if he’s a 4/4 but with no primaries, there’s no way he’d be on anyone’s radar.
35% of my spreadsheet had No IDEA until I told them. Today, though most everyone I spoke to – knew Already.
Clearly, you should visit The Bull Elephant more often! Our readers are well-informed on the goings-on within the Virginia GOP.
Actually I have been analyzing numbers from the 2012 Senate primary in the 10th district. It is a similar type of landscape. Marshall got 2,864 votes in that primary, which leads me to think that is his ceiling (assuming everyone of those folks turns out for him). However we know turnout will be lower (the 10th district turnout for the senate primary was 20k). I am assuming a turnout of 5k -7k. I think given the turnout and the loyalty of that Marshall base he will probably get 2,000 votes. I put his ceiling at 40 percent and floor at 20 percent. Comstock has been in the 60s in both the few scientific polls and online polls. I would say her ceiling is 60 percent and floor is 30 percent. The key to the race is turnout and Comstock has the organization to do it. That leads me to believe she will be closer to the median or upper end of that band.
That said, my predictions are:
Comstock 41%
Marshall 32%
Lind 14%
Hollingshead 10%
Savitt 1.8%
Wasinger and write-in sock puppets 1.2%
I like that prediction. Your numbers a likely to be the closest to the outcome. Marshall always does better than expected.
You don’t think that winchesters 1200 votes for mark berg will transfer to Bob? You’ll have to admit that in the range of 5-7k as you predicted… That is significant. I’m thinking its going to be 1500-1700 this time. Bob had some money – mark had none.
I am just going with what Marshall has done before in the 10th in a similar situation. That is more plausible than assuming all of Berg’s votes will carry over. Fairfax County is heavily for Comstock and I think she has the slight advantage in Loudoun. She will turn out people because she has a larger organization and ground game than others. That is why I put turnout where I have it. I think 5k is probably realistic, but it depends on weather and other factors. Besides, I am predicting the same percentage for Marshall you have. I just don’t think the others will do as well as you have them.
Ok how many of your 2k votes are you attributing to us?
My prediction- a tornado from Kansas will descend on the district and an army of sock puppets will carry Wasinger to victory.
I’m voting for Bob because he won’t become Eric Cantor’s lap dog and will actually go to Washington to change things – not just join in.
I’m liking Steve’s predictions better than my own!
Jeanine, you should like my predictions better than Steve’s 🙂
Marshall – 32%
Comstock – 31%
Hollingshead – 15%
Lind – 12%
Savitt – 6%
Wassinger – 4%
Did you hear those new radio ads that Bob put out.,,, WOW!!! LoL
I haven’t heard Bob’s ads but I thought Howie’s ads were excellent this week.
Do you guys all get paid by Comstock? JK 😉 I like bob but you’re probably right.
If I were appointing a nominee, Bob Marshall would be it. But I’m trying to be realistic, and I have yet to see a test of strength that would indicate that he could win.
Bull Elephant’s coverage of the race has been excellent. Excited for the party to unite and move forward tomorrow and keep VA10 Red!
Me too.
I must say Steve and Janine have captured my attention at least twice a day for the last month or so!
Thank you very much. We appreciate readers like you very much. This is a labor of love but a lot of work too and we are thankful for our reader like you. Check in often tomorrow, it’s going to be a very exciting day!
Planning on it! I’ll be at the 8th district convention, but monitoring the 10th too!
Thank you very much! Check in often tomorrow for live updates of what’s happening in the race. I will be live blogging all day from the 10th district headquarters.