Tomorrow is the long-awaited party canvass in the 10th Congressional district to select the nominee to succeed retiring Rep. Frank Wolf. After tomorrow, all of the sniping, backbiting, holier-than-thou proclamations of ideological purity (or impurity, depending on the direction) will stop, and Republicans will begin to train their fire on the Democrat nominee, John Foust.
Until then, everyone wants to know how it will turn out. Here at The Bull Elephant we’ve been paying close attention to the race, and two of us actually live in the district. As you can see from the divergent opinions below, though, we can come at this kind of analysis from remarkably different perspectives. The one constant: everyone here agrees that Barbara Comstock will win the nomination. The real question seems to be, by how much?
Here’s what we think:
With 6 candidates in this race predictions are difficult, my best guess (and that’s all it is):
I believe Comstock will capture just over 50%.
Money isn’t everything, and Bob Marshall will prove that, outperforming conventional wisdom and expectations, while Howie Lind will end up spending the most under-performing dollars per-vote.
Alexis Rose Bank
My predictions on these things always seem to reflect my biases, so I’m going to attempt to compensate for them with these:
Savitt < 1% Wasinger < 1% None/Write-in 1%
What’s your prediction? How close does Marshall come? Is there an upset waiting to happen? Who finishes higher, Lind or Hollingshead? Tell us!