When we voted for Governor and the House of Delegates in November, no one predicted the Democrat landslide that hit Virginia. No one predicted Republicans would lose 15 seats in the House of Delegates and lose the Governor’s race by 9%.
Republican candidate Ed Gillespie did his part to win. He ran a solid, mistake-free, principled, campaign and turned out more Republican voters than ever before. The problem was rabid anger against Trump turned out even more voters.
I have previously referred to the 2017 election as “the anti-Trump landslide election”. Virginia Commonwealth University has proven that to be correct. The election was all about Trump. He motivated voters to get to the polls. VCU polled voters in Virginia and found that 36% of Northam voters were at the polls to vote against Trump. Overall, 22% of Virginians went to the polls to send Trump a message. Trump was the number one reason voters came out to vote.
Yes, Trump cost us the election in November. More on the poll here.
59 comments
Hillary would have “cost us the election” too. McAuliffe is Bill’s BFF. This is no longer a state I recognize. People moving here from the northeast need to adjust their voting habits or they’ll be moving again.
Was Trump running against Obama in 08 or 12? You haven’t elected a Republican Senator since Allen. You lose statewide elections because Northern Virginia has grown so large and so $%^king liberal and immigrant that you could run good Ol Ronald Reagan and lose in landslide now.
To be fair, there were signs of fired-up dems on Primary Day. I remember listening to John Fredericks that evening, and he saw the warnings.
Seems obvious. And that’s no commentary on the current administration on balance… only what d-leaning voters think of it.
In Prince William County, Gillespie got 2,500 more votes than Cooch, while Northan got 25,000 more than McAuliffe
The R winner of the Primary was the WRONG candidate!!! He was part of the Establishment, and a significant “critter” in the Swamp that needs draining. Trump did NOT cost us the election. The Republican Establishment did that!
I knocked on thousands of doors for that election, soft and hard Republicans. I got into many conversations. Some Republicans said that they won’t vote Republican as long as Trump is in office. I told them that the state party is quite different from the national party and we need your vote. Don’t know how many I convinced. But it isn’t a far stretch to believe that there are many Republicans that I didn’t speak to that feel the same way.
Yes, it is cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face, but people do that.
It’s reasons like that, I feel like a foreigner here in Va now. This is despite my ancestral roots going back to the 1630s (ES, Accomack County). Many were also too good to vote Cuccinnelli, in ’13.
Jeanine, I have said it before and I will say it again… Trump is not the cause of Republicans not turning up in as great numbers. That was all on Gillespie. Democrats who LOST the national election being sore and voting Democrat in the state elections is not unexpected nor is it particularly noteworthy. Those Democrats were never going to vote for Gillespie regardless (despite how he tried to court them by running toward the squishy middle).
To the contrary, the turnout Trump inspired in Democrats and those in the middle proved extraordinary, insurmountable by Republicans at full force. It is particularly noteworthy that the middle cast its votes for Northam.
You are kidding yourself if you honestly think Trump had no effect on the Virginia and Alabama election numbers. They were truly extraordinary and particularly noteworthy.
Will we see them again in the Fall? I think so, especially after yesterday’s comments.
I think you just want someone to blame, the truth is Ed, who is a nice guy I voted for him, did not inspire Trumpers, those folks who voted for the first time because of him or Democrats like my Mom who voted for her first Republican ever, to come out and vote period. Stop it already you lose because you keep putting up establishment candidates and people who are fed up with the statis quo came out for Trump not Ed
The election occurred before the tax cuts were in place. Yes, Trump gets the blame, but the truth is that the Republican malcontents in the Senate should be called out for not supporting the presidential agenda.
These tax cuts will prove to grow the deficit. If you care about the deficit — which I do, not wishing to pass it along to our children — you will watch carefully for the outcome. If this Republican tax cut works out like the Republican tax cut in Kansas, expect the decline in fortunes in places like Virginia, Alabama to become a nationwide avalanche.
And this “Aha!” moment will do exactly what for us?
It was cold and rainy on election day. What could the VA GOP have done to change that?
After 11 straight months of propaganda from the media, Hollywood, and the “loyal” opposition party, “Proof that Trump cost us the election” is like taking a picture of the sunrise and and proclaiming “Proof there is a Sun”.
The GOP has absorbed to Democrat offensive. Our lines were close to breaking, but by the skin of our teeth, we’ve held the House.
Trump is our President, and he’s actually getting some good things done. Let’s work with what we have, not moan about it. Lowering of taxes. Removing onerous regulations. Getting people back to work. Creating an environment where businesses can flourish. Addressing the worst parts of illegal immigration. Kicking two of the legs out from under the ACA. Revitalizing the military and projecting strength in the world. Asserting ourselves in the UN.
If you can get past the “personality”, you will find a President doing what Conservative Republicans have been clamoring for for years.
2018 is coming. 2019 will be right behind it. Let’s use what we have to counter-attack and roll back the Democrats gains.
Quick question, and I don’t doubt your research..but fact is VCU is a liberal firewall and snowflake cradle of Virginia. Can their polls be trusted?
According to the polls, Hillary is the president.
Same with the popular vote, but neither polls nor popular vote are employed in selecting POTUS, and so we have the choice of the minority of voters. Still, I prefer it to the alternative. If Clinton were in office the political spectrum would not change as fast as it is now changing.
Really Jeanine???
Your incessant Trump bashing is tiresome. Trump is the President… Hillary is not! Be grateful!
Retread Ed Gillespie was a weak candidate and lost (again). Time for you to move on.
I am grateful! It’s hardly my fault that the rapid anti-Trump hatred drove Democrats to the polls.
Okay, but why did Republican enthusiasm fail to match Democrat enthusiasm? Maybe it was Gillespie who actually cost us the election. The lesson to be learned is that we cannot win by moderating and playing in the middle of the road. We need a serious fighter to confront the left and stop the insanity.
Yep, the only compelling reason to vote for Gillespie was to defeat the Democrats. Very few were excited about Governor Gillespie and all the great things he was going to accomplish. He was a bland, uninspiring candidate even by VA GOP standards.
Those sort of candidates almost always lose.
“Okay, but why did Republican enthusiasm fail to match Democrat enthusiasm?”
It could be that there are just more Democrats than Republicans in Virginia.
Yes, I said the same thing in my first post.
Agreed the incessant Anti-Trump hatred pushed by the media is a factor. What I’m still seeing in Republican circles is the short sightedness of many who fail to see Trump is still a better alternative to Hillary regardless of whether he was your first choice or not.
Right or wrong, I took this article to be another episode of beating a dead horse.
I think you mean Rabid not rapid.
Yes, they’ll be voting in even greater number come the mid-term Congressional and Senatorial elections.
Gather ye rosebuds while ye may …
But the DNC coffers have been drained to the dregs by the last special special elections. With the low donation rates, they’ll have to step up their game, if they want to have enough walking around money for the next wave.
You are kidding yourself if you think party money is the go to resource. Increasingly, wealthy donors give directly. It’s better targeted and more efficient.
I am no Democrat. I hope their bank accounts run dry and their bankers foreclose. Sooner the better, but then I hope it for the Republicans, too. We are ill-served by America’s modern two-party system.
I’m figuring that it was a simple coincidence that ALL 50- and 100-dollar bills were gone from the Wells Fargo Bank at Gateway in Winchester…the morning after the election? Why would they be completely out? Did any other banks have low supplies then? Something to investigate.
Thing is, Gillespie distanced himself from Trump regularly, so how would a logical person conclude that his loss was caused by Trump hate? Northam voters must be very low-info types, if they fell for the lie that Ed=The Donald.
Seriously? John Fredericks (Mr. 97%) predicted they would campaign together so tight was the relationship. The Optics are obvious: You remain angry with Trump and have two choices: Northam or Gillespie. Which sends the message? Rinse, wash, repeat in Alabama for the Senate. If you do not see the trend you are missing something.
Um, no. Whenever Gillespie was asked about Trump, he hemmed and hawed, and finally gave a non-answer. And in Alabama, Trump backed Luther Strange in the primary, not Moore, so your claim of a ‘trend’ is inaccurate.
In the general election, Trump backed Moore. And, yes, John Fredericks did predict they’d campaign together. The effect is clear, Jeanine is correct.
Trump said blessed little about Moore until the last few days of the campaign, so you’re wrong. Gillespie resisted any association with Trump, but Vogel and Adams didn’t…and they BOTH received more votes than Ed. Chew on that.
To say that liberal voters and GOP swamp dwelling creeps were motivated by Trump is not bashing Trump. Sadly it’s a fact
Yet regardless of motivation by liberal voters, the fact remains liberal voters showed up to the polls and Republicans did not (at least not in greater numbers).
Can’t say much for swamp dwelling GOPers other than the trajectory the RPV is on is toward irrelevancy.
Gillespie turned out more Republican voters than any Republican EVER in Virginia.
And he still lost…
Nice try.
…and both Vogel and Adams received MORE votes than Gillespie did. Why?
Ed thought I was a chump.
I thought Ed was a puppet to Corporatist, Globalist and one himself.
Ed the Va Republican savior yea right, right down the river.
You’re relying on a poll of voters who elected Northam, and you find that they don’t like Trump. Shocking!
I think you’re mixing up cause and effect. We already know that the electorate voted Democrat, and obviously that electorate is going to blame Trump for everything under the sun, including the weather. Yes, it is plausible that Trump probably threatened Democrats in a way that the Bushes never could, and that may have increased Democrat turnout.
However, changing demographics would just as easily produce exactly the same post election poll results. And we know the electorate has been moving in that direction for a long time, before Trump. This poll doesn’t provide any basis to conclude that the election was ALL about Trump, though Democrats will certainly promote that perception for all it’s worth.
We already ran the most benign, non- threatening candidate possible in Gillespie, which failed to inspire Republican turnout more than it mitigated any concerns among Democrat voters. That was a huge mistake. You cannot win by promising to be not as bad as other Republicans. And if we continue to learn the wrong lessons from these elections, we will lose even bigger. We should have run an unabashedly transformational candidate with the guts to tackle Virginia’s biggest problems more aggressively than Northam ever will.
Voter fraud and propaganda perpetrated by people who *hate Trump* is not the same as ‘Trump costing us the election’. The Dems are fluent in lying about any and every Republican, which is NOT the fault of the targeted office holder. Ed received fewer votes statewide than did Jill Vogel, and McAuliffe reinstated over 200,000 felons’ voting rights (he also bragged about meeting with a large number of these fine, upstanding new Democrat voters). How many votes did Ed lose by, again?
Fake News.
1) It was 60,000 felons, not 200,000. He lost by 233,000.
2) Fewer than half showed up.
McAuliffe claims he auto-penned the restatements of over 200,000 in time for election day. How do you know how many voted, or how many times each? The influx of illegals over the past few years, has also had an impact.
The final number restored is apparently 156,000:
http://wapo.st/2CWuVW6
We do not know their likelihood of appearing at the polls on election day, casting an absentee ballot or voting Republican, but we do know the number in total is insufficient to have proved determinant of the election’s result.
Finally, the outcome seems correct. If you’ve paid your debt to society, you should receive some restoration of rights. Restoring the right to vote is a step along the road to requesting the right to own a firearm, which I also support where deemed appropriate by the state’s governor, especially where the felony did not involve violence.
Many good conservatives have spoken out lately on the heavy hand of the government as regards prisons, punishment and the need for reform. Employers like the Kochs have led the charge.
McAwful blanket-pardoned over 200,000 felons (some of whom were still incarcerated) by violating the law that requires individual review of such cases. He was overturned by the House of Delegates, then proceeded to sign new reinstatements *one at a time* with his auto-pen. No actual reviews, just fast signatures. Do you not see a problem with this?
No, it’s his call. Charlie Crist did it in Florida. It seems correct to me — if they did their time, paid their debt, let’s restore their rights.
But only if you follow the law properly. He was in a hurry to pad the polls, just as it was his job to make sure that Hillary won in Virginia.
Also, it’s not “voter fraud” when the people casting votes are legal voters.
Trump threatens hundreds of billions of dollars dumped on the swamp that is NOVA each year. Would anyone expect them to give up their goverment largesse without a fight!? It’s only going to get uglier from here. But I also disagree about our gubernatorial candidate and would have rather lost with his primary opponent.
Also, If not our current Preisdent a future one will need to weaken the federal government -that can only happen by reducing spending. There’s no easy way out of this for our lovely Commonwealth. Plus – We have a huge handicap in that the Republican Party of Virginia is too much a social club that can throw a party while showing little creativity and fight when it really counts.
NOVA,
If you separate the four letters in the middle you get exactly what it is; NO VA.
Yes no Virginia this is changing fast. The Dems are becoming more liberal and the Republican has lost their grit and caved to DC, the District of Corruption.
Did Trump cost Va? or
Do Va. Republicans cost Va?
The answer is the failed leadership of Va Republicans.
Why do Republicans always have someone to blame?
It’s the immigrant
It’s the Dems.
It’s the gays
It’s the schools
It’s the regulations (ok , sometimes)
It’s the Federal Government
Ok if it is Trump , yea if it is Trump and the Federal Goverment then why will Va Republicans wait, yes wait on Trump and the Federal Government on illegal immigration when illegal immigrants and Va Bussiness break Va laws.
No Jeanine,
The cause of Va Republicans not winning is because of failed Va Republican leadership.
Maybe one day the Va Republican will wake up and take some responsibility for their shortcommings.
Accountability is a quality character trait.
If you cut out Northern Virginia, Gillespie still loses.
If you cut out all Hispanic, Muslim and Asian voters, Gillespie still loses.
Gillespie is a Swamp Thing … a K-Street, Revolving Door, Establishment Republican which is exactly what Trump Voters want to get rid of.
VMI Class of ’68? My Father is one of your BRs, in that case. None of them claim ralphie as one of their own, I can say that. Yes, my going to Tech was a huge break from family tradition, I know!
Hokie High? You know Tech only beat us 12-10 our 1st Class year in one of the last VMI-VPI Thanksgiving games. Those were interesting days!
I’ve seen pics from my Pop’s days there! His (late) older brother was ‘61. My Grandpa was ‘27 (was a Republican in the NY Senate). Forget what class my Great-Grandpa was, but he was Commandant there (and received the DSC in WW1). His father, was combat-wounded with the Corps of Cadets at New Market, and served a term as a Congressman in Our Commonwealth. After the War of Northern Aggression, of course!
The family traditions I did continue: were military service (I did the NGs, my C.O. was VMI ‘07), a lifelong passion for History (particular MilHist), right-of-Center ideology, and a love for all things related to Virginia’s rich culture (or at least the Virginia prior to 2005).
“Trump threatens hundreds of billions of dollars dumped on the swamp that is NOVA each year.”
Trump’s budget proposal calls for 158% more spending increases than Obama.
The RPV didn’t put all they could into 2016, essentially telling me 2017 was the year. Good job there, guys,
I never supported Trump during his campaign and thought it was a mistake to elect him, but I’ve come around and boarded the Trump train. Trump 2020! For me it is all about what has actually been done – getting rid of the individual mandate for the ACA law, tax reform, lowering the corporate tax rate, changing us over from a worldwide tax system. Any one of those things would have earned my vote.