Quinnipiac Poll good news for Ed Gillespie

A good poll is not one that samples an equal number of Democrats and Republicans, but rather one that samples as close as possible to the actual electorate. We know Virginia is a blue state. In the November election, the electorate in Virginia identified themselves in exit polls as 40% Democrat, 33% Republican, and 26% as Independent or other. In this poll it was skewed with a few more Democrats and lot more Independents, but that’s no problem if you adjust the analysis accordingly.

If we assume the electorate is the same as it was in November, it looks to me like Gillespie will do better than Trump, but maybe not good enough. Gillespie is getting 89% of Republicans, versus Trump who only got 88%. Northam is getting 89% of Democrats, whereas Hillary got 92%. The Independents are leaning Republican, as they did last November, but more so for Gillespie than they did for Trump by about 4%. So Gillespie is doing better than Trump did in all three categories.

There is no question that Northam is not doing as well as Hillary did in Virginia, but there are so many more Democrats in Virginia that Northam could still win if the election were held today. It’s a good sign that the Gillespie is gaining though, and he certainly is closing the gap. Plenty of time left.

Maybe there is just not enough Republicans left in Virginia to have a balance poll?