The latest Quinnipiac poll on the Governor’s race, released today, over sampled Democrats by 12% over Republicans and Ralph Northam only beat Ed Gillespie by 6%, 44 to 38. This is very good news for the Gillespie campaign.
From the Richmond Times-Dispatch
In the Quinnipiac survey, 24 percent of respondents said they consider themselves Republicans, 36 percent as Democrats, 34 percent as independents, with 5 percent as “other” or “don’t know.”
Such a flawed poll due to flawed methodology. Had they sampled Democrats and Republicans equally, Gilliespie may well have been ahead.
In this poll, President Trump’s approval rating was at 36%, with 61% disapproving of the job he’s doing as President. Take those results with a grain of salt too, again due to the over sampling of Democrats.
7 comments
Maybe there is just not enough Republicans left in Virginia to have a balance poll?
Hardly! Some of the anti-Trump Republicans are now referring to themselves as “Independents.”. However, if they are anti-Trump, they are probably pro-Gillespie.
There are still plenty of Virginia Republicans.
Poll day will decide.
We know that Va has deer but just how many?
Will the Trump Independent come out of the hills for Ed or not find him energetic or American enough to bother?
I expect the populated communities to carry a slim margin for Northam.
Only a balance of power is good for Va. at this point in having representatives with predetermined political motives in representation.
Then you have local elections and in my locality some have had enough.
A good poll is not one that samples an equal number of Democrats and Republicans, but rather one that samples as close as possible to the actual electorate. We know Virginia is a blue state. In the November election, the electorate in Virginia identified themselves in exit polls as 40% Democrat, 33% Republican, and 26% as Independent or other. In this poll it was skewed with a few more Democrats and lot more Independents, but that’s no problem if you adjust the analysis accordingly.
If we assume the electorate is the same as it was in November, it looks to me like Gillespie will do better than Trump, but maybe not good enough. Gillespie is getting 89% of Republicans, versus Trump who only got 88%. Northam is getting 89% of Democrats, whereas Hillary got 92%. The Independents are leaning Republican, as they did last November, but more so for Gillespie than they did for Trump by about 4%. So Gillespie is doing better than Trump did in all three categories.
There is no question that Northam is not doing as well as Hillary did in Virginia, but there are so many more Democrats in Virginia that Northam could still win if the election were held today. It’s a good sign that the Gillespie is gaining though, and he certainly is closing the gap. Plenty of time left.
I see that Gillespie is leading 39 to 30 among independents. I find that encouraging.
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