I’ve been busy working the election all day, so apologies for lack of posting. But the news I have is good.
The general trend of what I’m hearing is that strong Republican precincts are on track for higher turnout than in 2009, and strong Dem precincts lower. This seems to be the case for several exurban and rural counties, but possibly not as pronounced in NoVa or other urban areas.
Stafford is the example I’m closest to. As of around 5:00 PM, the most Democrat precinct in the county was still under 20% turnout. Meanwhile, one of the largest and most GOP-leaning precincts was at 38%. Clearly there are potentially a lot of variables, but these two precincts are in the same competitive House of Delegates district, and both have school board races on the ballot. And this trend holds across the board for other Stafford precincts, so far.
What can we read into this? Not much if Fairfax numbers blow the roof on turnout. But so far, judging from Brian Schoeneman’s tweets, overall Fairfax numbers aren’t stunning, and solid Republican precincts seem to be marginally outpacing their counterparts.
We could be in for an upset of epic proportions. Or, maybe not. Frustratingly little data available to fill in the gaps.