Endorsements
Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart notched a very impressive endorsement today.
Newly-elected Republican National Committeewoman Cynthia Dunbar today announced her endorsement of Stewart’s gubernatorial campaign with an enthusiastic statement of support:
People are tired of politicians who are long on message and short on action. They want real leaders, leaders willing to confront the political elite, NOT join them. Corey has proven he isn’t afraid to speak out for what is right and to fight for what is in the best interest of the people. He is directed by an internal moral compass which is why he does not back down from a fight. There are many politicians driven by compromise to make their fellow elected officials happy, but there are very few leaders like Corey Stewart who are driven by conviction to make the people happy. That is why I am endorsing Corey Stewart for Governor of Virginia.”
This is a very good pickup for Corey, and highlights the growing strength of his campaign among a segment of the grassroots activist base, particularly in the western part of the Commonwealth. The endorsement comes after the notable unity endorsement of Dunbar at this past summer’s statewide GOP convention by both Stewart, then Virginia chairman of the Trump campaign, and Sen. Bill Stanley (R-Franklin), who served as chairman of the Ted Cruz campaign in the state.
The endorsement sets up a split among National Committee members from Virginia, with Dunbar backing Stewart and Morton Blackwell backing Ed Gillespie. Both individuals have earned significant respect from around the party, but among conservatives in particular. (Full disclosure: this author has endorsed Gillespie).
Among the other candidates, Denver Riggleman and Ed Gillespie both had successful kickoff tours this weekend, with grassroots events at various parts of the state.
Legislation
The remaining candidate, Sen. Frank Wagner (R-Virginia Beach), is marking himself for criticism over support of a 2015 measure that fixes utility rates in place for a span of several years. A bipartisan effort led by Sen. David Suetterlein (R-Roanoke) and Sen. Chap Petersen (D-Fairfax) would require refunds to consumers in the event the utilities have profits beyond their regulated minimums. More on that to come.
Fundraising
Remember the end-of-year mad dash to get your donations last month? Next up in the headlines will be campaign finance reports, which are due to be published Tuesday. The campaign of Ed Gillespie has already signaled they will have a very strong report that will likely leave other contenders for Governor in the dust. His campaign reported last week that they had raised over a million dollars in the last quarter alone, and have about $2 million cash on hand, after apparently eclipsing what both former Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli and former Governor Bob McDonnell had done by this point in the previous two cycles. Corey Stewart is no slouch when it comes to fundraising either, and is also likely to post some healthy numbers. Sen. Wagner can be expected to show respectable returns, while the newcomer to the race, Denver Riggleman is still probably long on enthusiasm but still a little short on cash as he attempts to make up for lost time relative to the other candidates.
All of this will come on the heels of the announcement from the Republican Governors Association that they’ve contributed $5 million to a special purpose PAC to elect the next GOP nominee for Governor in Virginia. This constitutes the largest single contribution ever made in Virginia politics. But it comes with a catch: if circumstances evolve such that RGA or other national Republicans aren’t pleased with how the race is going in Virginia, RGA reserves the right to transfer the funds elsewhere.
We expect the Attorney General race between John Adams and Chuck Smith will show a pretty stark contrast. Adams, who has proceeded with an aura of inevitability since the withdrawal of Del. Rob Bell (R-Albemarle) from the race, is expected to show quite a lead over Smith. Maybe we’ll be surprised.
The interesting race (isn’t it always?) will be for Lieutenant Governor. All three candidates so far, Del. Glenn Davis (R-Virginia Beach), and Sens. Jill Vogel (R-Fauquier) and Bryce Reeves (R-Spotsylvania), have some talent for fundraising, and each has a natural base of financial support from which to draw. Conventional wisdom, though, says that Vogel will set herself apart here, and use a strong lead in fundraising to help establish a frontrunner status. Assuming this is what unfolds, then together with her status as the only woman running statewide, this helps round out a pair of strong arguments for Vogel to be on the ticket in the fall. We’ll know soon enough.
Fake Emails
For his part, Reeves seems determined not to let the recent email scandal involving fake emails apparently sent from the Vogel house or its envrions (which Vogel claims had to have come from someone else) get swept under the rug or forgotten. His campaign has doubled down on the story, and is running the following graphic on social media:
Never a dull moment in Virginia politics. Stay tuned.
43 comments
These pictures boil the campaign down to a case of suits vs. no suits. Chamber preppies vs.
real grass roots. In bed with Ed vs. the shrinking big tent. Associates vs.
neighbors. Takers vs. voters. More importantly, there are a whole slew of ticked off people just waiting to plunge an electoral knife in a candidate’s back. Which one could it be?
[…] to the campaign’s press release (and as I discussed yesterday), a big part of the argument the Vogel camp is using is that she is a benefit to the ticket, not […]
Virginia’s first statewide open primary post Trump election has some interesting possible hurdles that may be uniquely significant in impact for the state’s Republican primary candidates. I would propose that the key criteria for 2017 primary election success (and general election outcomes as well) this cycle in Virginia generally are as follows.
1. The status of the candidates whether they are incumbents or not.
In this case Virginia has non repeatable terms for the governorship so true office incumbency is not an issue but a spin off of this phenomena is likely important and that is if there is any existing base of informed prior voters that have developed any strong partisan ties to a proposed candidate (via an actual vote placed within an election context) and are they entrenched in a key electoral demographic area? The vast preponderance of voter behavior analysis proves that these previous candidate voters tend to vote in primaries and replicate their given candidate loyalty thereby enhancing those candidate vote totals and boosting the local demographic confidence of less informed and less concerned citizens to not only turn out but vote this trend line as well. Among current Republican primary candidates Stewart is the winner here given state demographics, followed by Gillespie, Wagner and a very distant, largely unknown Riggleman.
2. The party affiliation position or partisanship of the candidates.
This is a two edge sword as political experts have long hypothesized about the effects the state and national political climate has on electorate voting behavior. Some political experts have used it to explain the differing ideological orientations of voters, suggesting that this factor fundamentally defines the scope and shape of any campaign. Virginia having just recently undergone a contentious Republican presidential primary involving Republican presidential candidates representing traditional establishment, reformist and right wing conservative candidates and associated heated political partisanship among all three groups of candidate supporters can reasonably expect to see this trend continue. The state’s recent base voter choice among this differing affiliation of partisan candidates was clearly demonstrated to be for the reformist position (in the guise of Donald Trump), followed by the right wing conservatives and trailing behind the traditional party establishment. Among current Republican primary candidates Stewart is the clear winner here, followed by the relative unknown Riggleman with Gillespie and Wagner trailing the group on this electoral assumption.
3. The current political climate;
Virginia has become a unique Republican outlier from a party perspective when you assess the current political climate at the Republican national level with the elevation of Donald Trump to the presidency and his accompanying policy positions with the political positions that many of the state’s party apparatus hold. This outcome has produced the effect that the optimal position for the party and some candidates within it is NOT firmly entrenched within median Virginia Republican base voter public opinion and that key perceived campaign issues are NOT dependent on how public opinion is distributed within this electorate. The Virginia Republican Party and some of it’s candidates have not emphasized this rational strategy for a candidate to concentrate on maximizing this vote and doing whatever it takes to achieve this end by positioning themselves within existing demonstrable median voter public opinion. The assumption here is as any state candidate deviates from a rational strategy of current political climate and refuses to pursue the median of current public opinion they run a far greater chance of losing a primary runoff and are far more likely to become uncompetitive in any general election race. Stewart is the leader here, followed by a general tossup between Riggleman, Gillespie and Wagner regarding this electoral assumption.
4 The economic conditions.
Voter economic self-interest plays a tangible role in the voting behavior of all electorate and Virginia’s is no exception. The pocket book issues will have both positive and adverse effects on primary election success of these candidates as will their given ability to address the current economic health of the state’s voting constituents. What may be unique this election cycle is after two terms of the Obama Administration Virginia voter perceptions of the national economic trends may well matter just as much as their individual predicaments. The American social fabric has been so thoroughly ripped by progressive rule that individual voters may well want to entertain policy solutions that not only address their personal economic malaise but support and ideas regarding joint government and state opportunities for individuals to take more responsible for their own economic welfare. Stewart and Gillespie are both working these issues more or less effectively, Wagner trails here with Riggleman not currently effective on this issue at this stage.
5. The access and role of money.
The evolving role of money in the American electoral process has become very clouded both in the matter of soft money, the role of PACs and what these huge amounts of cash actually produce in the final determination in the actual voter booth. Needless to say recent political history in both national and statewide elections have shown that it is NOT the top criteria for conducting a successful primary or general election campaign today and is placed in last place here for that reason. It does have one key clear contribution (much as incumbency status is an advantage outlined above) and that is funding programs and events to enhance that the candidate has widespread name recognition within the state. This is why campaign strategies are often driven by the status of name recognition which can place less known primary opponents at a very distinct disadvantage and even relegate them to the unofficial role of challengers even if no incumbent actually exists in the race. Gillespie leads to date in this category but interestingly has not yet effectively leveraged this funds advantage into a distinct name recognition leadership position with Stewart. They remain for all intensive purposes neck and neck with Wagner trailing and Riggleman close to ground zero.
I grant these are rather general criteria but this early on polls, favorably ratings, endorsements, and cash on hand are all largely meaningless in my opinion. I ask myself who has the base foundations of the fundamentals to succeed in not only a primary runoff but compete effectively in a general election in this deepening blue state. With an attempt to put some context behind my position I fully and completely believe that the only individual in such a position is Corey Steward. Therefore this primary will in likely effect come down to the voter choice of let’s continue onward on the path we are currently perusing with candidate Gillespie or attempt to realign our state and party back into the mainstream of Republican national politics with a vote for Cory Steward.
So it’s a matter of ‘Do we Republicans want to win the nomination more than we want to win the general?’
Let’s ask anyone who wants to show up on primary day to help us decide.
Gillespie can have all the money in the world, I’ll never vote for him
Corey, your out also.
So why should we let you have a say?
#TeamCorey ! #MVGA!
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Wasn’t Senator Wagner involved in the “slating” scandal in Virginia Beach in 2014? Can somebody please confirm.
He wasn’t involved.. No.. Frank Wagner was at the epicenter of slating and Eric Cantors guys came to 2CD and arranged it..
Nice folks. That leaves three gubernatorial candidates.
If Republicans are true to the creed, this is a 3 man race already.. Wagner deserves the shame and ridicule he got for screwing up the second district and then putting together an alliance to flip SCC from a convention to a primary so he could run for governor.. because there is no chance in hell Wagner could win a convention..
Enron Ed has the full weight of big business, party elites & establishment behind him – got it! Speaking of entrenched party bigwigs – the Republican Governor’s Association has pledged $5 million to a special PAC here in Virginia
IF they approve our choice!! Otherwise it’s Indiana givers; e.g. they’ll take it BACK!! And you know who ‘they” want – former lobbyist & crony experienced Ed Gillespie!
But no pressure, Virginia! Ehem, cough.
The RPV was in the tank for Cruz at the State Convention. And at the Advance, with has-been, past election LOSERS, guests of honor Cantor and Gillespie, singing praises of glory past, and a bare nod/mention to Trump/populism the RPV still showed how out of touch they were with Virginians.
Calling Enron Ed Gillespie a, “Conservative”, truly IS putting liberty lipstick on a crony pig. It’s a farce.
Denver is going to win handily.
Excuse me but uh.. “Indiana givers”?
And as for bullshit, Connie.. RPV was not in the tank for Cruz and Cantor was not a guest of honor at RPV Advance.
‘Indiana givers’ is just right — I think it was a club there…
Depends upon how you define tank, the RPV complied with the scorched earth “convention.”
The advance receptions I went to was pretty much a grovelfest for Cantor and a McDonnellpallooza.
Only thing that would have been better would be Whitbeck giving him a watch.
It was a sponsored event, someone paid RPV for the privilege.. This was an RPV fund raiser.. Someone paid.. Cantor was McDonnells guest, not RPV’s.
Right, it was a ‘we still like you’ event with McDonnell and Cantor and Christie headlining.
Means that a good part of the party miss, and long for the halcyon days of the big three.
To me, it also means that Cantor is running for Senate in 2018.
Here is the way the VAGOP game is played:
‘If my guy/gal doesn’t win the primary, I’m totally OK with the DEM winning and I’m not going to lift a finger to help the nominee unless it’s my guy/gal.’
Happens with the RINO’s on both ends, and ‘splains’ why we keep losing.
It will continue to happen as long as we put candidate, faction, and/or special interest ahead of our tired, old, decrepit party.
Everything you said but Corey will win.
Ditto
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This is your buddies kick off in VB. I’d say it was a bit different.
A mighty wind.
Bitch please.. https://www.facebook.com/EdwardWGillespie/videos/1396594623704566/
1) language
2) too fast, looks mostly media taking notes.
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I’d say Corey had quite the campaign kick off in VB this weekend. Very heavily attended.
Is that the entire crowd?
About 150 attended. Filled the restaurant.
Thanks. Impressive!
Didn’t someone say Denver had 300? The place was jammed. Ed has kickoffs all over the state.
Several of us drove an hour and a half to the event, some came from the beach too. We were an hour late due to a prior commitment and it was still packed. At least 300.
It was the single largest event that day. When you total up the announcements and days events, after Gillespie, Riggleman easily had the second largest number of attendees. MANY Gillespie/Riggleman allies.. Pack the tent folks.. This is a 3 man race.
Did you see the pictures of Denver Riggleman’s kickoff? And in the middle of nowhere, Nelson County.
Yes at his distillery in his hometown vs 3 hours away.
Now, now. Denver had folks from eastern and northern Virginia in attendance. And Silverback Distillery is in the middle of nowhere. Glad to see that there is enthusiasm for all of our candidates. Healthy. I will happily back the party’s candidate.
No disrespect to Denver. I like him. He would be my second choice. But he was in his hometown and Corey was 3 hours away in VB. I hosted Corey’s event and if was heavily attended. It appears Denvers was as well. Gillespie, not so much.
I forbid you to watch this video. https://www.facebook.com/EdwardWGillespie/videos/1396594623704566/
Nelson County is my second home. Its anything but nowhere.. Its a happening place with tone of new investment in craft beer, and fine food establishment venues opening all along 151. We need a stronger GOP presence there to whack-a-mole the D’s there.
I had no idea a county of 15,000 could have all that.
Which did Denver support?
Yep, good optics for the business as well.
Silverback distillery is about 22 miles from Charlottesville, an easy drive off of I-64 exit 107 at Crozet. I made the trip from Keswick in about 35 minutes. Rural does not equal “nowhere”. Or didn’t anyone learn anything about Republican voting geography in the last general election?
Just to be clear, I don’t think it’s the middle of no where. Denver would be my second choice. Would like to see he stick around and let folks see him in action after this is over.