Round Up: Corey scores big endorsement, but Ed is set to run up fundraising score

These pictures boil the campaign down to a case of suits vs. no suits. Chamber preppies vs.
real grass roots. In bed with Ed vs. the shrinking big tent. Associates vs.
neighbors. Takers vs. voters. More importantly, there are a whole slew of ticked off people just waiting to plunge an electoral knife in a candidate’s back. Which one could it be?

Virginia’s first statewide open primary post Trump election has some interesting possible hurdles that may be uniquely significant in impact for the state’s Republican primary candidates. I would propose that the key criteria for 2017 primary election success (and general election outcomes as well) this cycle in Virginia generally are as follows.

1. The status of the candidates whether they are incumbents or not.

In this case Virginia has non repeatable terms for the governorship so true office incumbency is not an issue but a spin off of this phenomena is likely important and that is if there is any existing base of informed prior voters that have developed any strong partisan ties to a proposed candidate (via an actual vote placed within an election context) and are they entrenched in a key electoral demographic area? The vast preponderance of voter behavior analysis proves that these previous candidate voters tend to vote in primaries and replicate their given candidate loyalty thereby enhancing those candidate vote totals and boosting the local demographic confidence of less informed and less concerned citizens to not only turn out but vote this trend line as well. Among current Republican primary candidates Stewart is the winner here given state demographics, followed by Gillespie, Wagner and a very distant, largely unknown Riggleman.

2. The party affiliation position or partisanship of the candidates.

This is a two edge sword as political experts have long hypothesized about the effects the state and national political climate has on electorate voting behavior. Some political experts have used it to explain the differing ideological orientations of voters, suggesting that this factor fundamentally defines the scope and shape of any campaign. Virginia having just recently undergone a contentious Republican presidential primary involving Republican presidential candidates representing traditional establishment, reformist and right wing conservative candidates and associated heated political partisanship among all three groups of candidate supporters can reasonably expect to see this trend continue. The state’s recent base voter choice among this differing affiliation of partisan candidates was clearly demonstrated to be for the reformist position (in the guise of Donald Trump), followed by the right wing conservatives and trailing behind the traditional party establishment. Among current Republican primary candidates Stewart is the clear winner here, followed by the relative unknown Riggleman with Gillespie and Wagner trailing the group on this electoral assumption.

3. The current political climate;

Virginia has become a unique Republican outlier from a party perspective when you assess the current political climate at the Republican national level with the elevation of Donald Trump to the presidency and his accompanying policy positions with the political positions that many of the state’s party apparatus hold. This outcome has produced the effect that the optimal position for the party and some candidates within it is NOT firmly entrenched within median Virginia Republican base voter public opinion and that key perceived campaign issues are NOT dependent on how public opinion is distributed within this electorate. The Virginia Republican Party and some of it’s candidates have not emphasized this rational strategy for a candidate to concentrate on maximizing this vote and doing whatever it takes to achieve this end by positioning themselves within existing demonstrable median voter public opinion. The assumption here is as any state candidate deviates from a rational strategy of current political climate and refuses to pursue the median of current public opinion they run a far greater chance of losing a primary runoff and are far more likely to become uncompetitive in any general election race. Stewart is the leader here, followed by a general tossup between Riggleman, Gillespie and Wagner regarding this electoral assumption.

4 The economic conditions.
Voter economic self-interest plays a tangible role in the voting behavior of all electorate and Virginia’s is no exception. The pocket book issues will have both positive and adverse effects on primary election success of these candidates as will their given ability to address the current economic health of the state’s voting constituents. What may be unique this election cycle is after two terms of the Obama Administration Virginia voter perceptions of the national economic trends may well matter just as much as their individual predicaments. The American social fabric has been so thoroughly ripped by progressive rule that individual voters may well want to entertain policy solutions that not only address their personal economic malaise but support and ideas regarding joint government and state opportunities for individuals to take more responsible for their own economic welfare. Stewart and Gillespie are both working these issues more or less effectively, Wagner trails here with Riggleman not currently effective on this issue at this stage.

5. The access and role of money.
The evolving role of money in the American electoral process has become very clouded both in the matter of soft money, the role of PACs and what these huge amounts of cash actually produce in the final determination in the actual voter booth. Needless to say recent political history in both national and statewide elections have shown that it is NOT the top criteria for conducting a successful primary or general election campaign today and is placed in last place here for that reason. It does have one key clear contribution (much as incumbency status is an advantage outlined above) and that is funding programs and events to enhance that the candidate has widespread name recognition within the state. This is why campaign strategies are often driven by the status of name recognition which can place less known primary opponents at a very distinct disadvantage and even relegate them to the unofficial role of challengers even if no incumbent actually exists in the race. Gillespie leads to date in this category but interestingly has not yet effectively leveraged this funds advantage into a distinct name recognition leadership position with Stewart. They remain for all intensive purposes neck and neck with Wagner trailing and Riggleman close to ground zero.

I grant these are rather general criteria but this early on polls, favorably ratings, endorsements, and cash on hand are all largely meaningless in my opinion. I ask myself who has the base foundations of the fundamentals to succeed in not only a primary runoff but compete effectively in a general election in this deepening blue state. With an attempt to put some context behind my position I fully and completely believe that the only individual in such a position is Corey Steward. Therefore this primary will in likely effect come down to the voter choice of let’s continue onward on the path we are currently perusing with candidate Gillespie or attempt to realign our state and party back into the mainstream of Republican national politics with a vote for Cory Steward.

Wasn’t Senator Wagner involved in the “slating” scandal in Virginia Beach in 2014? Can somebody please confirm.