I have been hearing rumors that there are folks here in Virginia who would normally support Ted Cruz, but are thinking of voting for Marco Rubio instead because they think he is the most “electable.” Well, it’s time for some hard truths about the Florida Senator. Marco Rubio CANNOT win the White House. He can’t even win the nomination, and here’s why:
Rubio is the establishment candidate. Rubio has been crowned as the establishment’s last, best hope to win the nomination and keep the status quo in Washington. Yet in every primary that has been held this year, at least 65% of the vote went AGAINST the establishment candidates. The anger at the establishment is what is fueling the electorate and the rise of Donald Trump, and they are simply not going to rally around the establishment candidate. Marco may think that the more endorsements he gets, the better he will do, but with every endorsement by every establishment politician, it gets worse and worse for him.
Marco Rubio’s theory of winning counts on Ted Cruz and John Kasich leaving the race, thinking that he would pick up all their support. The problem with this is that most of Ted Cruz’ supporters WILL NOT support Rubio. Ted Cruz is firmly against amnesty and illegal immigration, and his supporters are not going to back a candidate that is pro-amnesty. It is much more likely that a large chunk of Cruz supporters will switch to Trump If Ted Cruz ever suspends his campaign, Trump’s nomination is assured.
Rubio can’t win a single primary state – not even Florida. There is not a single state on the map where Rubio is leading Trump. Rubio had everything going for him in South Carolina and Nevada and he couldn’t close the deal. In South Carolina he had Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Trey Gowdy, and the entire GOP State apparatus stumping for him and he tied with Cruz for second. In Nevada, the entire GOP establishment was pulling for him, and again he tied with Cruz for second.
The news doesn’t get any better in his home state. Current polling shows Rubio losing Florida to Trump by about 20 points. There is a reason why Rubio decided not to run for re-election to the Senate, and it’s not because he wanted to focus on running for President. How can anyone make the argument that Rubio is “the most electable candidate” when he can’t win a single state? Don’t forget, no candidate has ever won the GOP nomination without winning either Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina.
Rubio’s is counting on a brokered convention. After Rubio’s disastrous performance in New Hampshire, his campaign manager told the AP that Rubio’s best chance at the nomination would be in a brokered convention. Later, the Rubio campaign gave a presentation to establishment donors pitching the brokered convention scenario as the best chance to win the nomination. If the establishment was somehow able to award the nomination to Rubio after never winning a single state, the uproar from the grassroots would be deafening.
If you are going to nominate somebody other than Donald Trump, you are going to have to nominate a candidate that brings Trump’s supporters back to the party. Rubio is not that candidate, and he especially couldn’t do it if he snatched the nomination out from under everyone in a brokered convention.
So if you are thinking about voting for Rubio this Tuesday because of the “electability” issue, remember that this is the same type of thinking that gave us Bob Dole, and John McCain, and Mitt Romney. How’d those electable candidates work out for us?