Brian Schoeneman and his campaign manager Erika Dyer ran the best campaign of all three candidates in Sully district. He raised money, had volunteers, a plan to execute, and was able to expertly dodge the various attacks coming his way.
And none of it mattered.[read_more]
Saturday ended one of the more bizarre political experiments I’ve ever seen. Brian Schoeneman was trying to prove that if you have enough political connections, enough lobbyist money, and enough support among professional Republican bloggers you could move into a district you’ve never lived in and win a GOP nomination devoid of any practical community connections. It almost worked. His campaign, while professionally run, was a sad representation of what has hurt local Republicans in Northern Virginia for years. Forget for a moment politics and the moderate vs. conservative debate that rages within the GOP, in Northern Virginia the Republican Party has struggled to find candidates that come from the local community. We find our candidates from the large pool of congressional staffers, DC lawyers, Tysons corporate big-wigs, and lobbyists. It’s a losing strategy. Democrats churn out candidate after candidate that serve on some board or community association that always give them a built-in advantage. So on top of representing all that’s wrong in local GOP politics, he never actually lived in the district he was running for until five days before his announcement. FIVE DAYS after moving. We need to find candidates whose first interaction with voters isn’t as a politician asking for their vote but as a neighbor. There is no substitute for local connections and pure effort. Not even Pat Herrity or Barbara Comstock.
Everyone who runs for office is ambitious, but it is what you do with that ambition that counts. It’s what you do when nobody is paying attention; when you don’t have fancy palm cards, campaign logos, or political events to go to. The Republican politicians from Northern Virginia who are successful come from their community even if they are a lobbyist or a congressional staffer by trade. Whether an arch-conservative senator like Dick Black or a moderate supervisor like John Cook, they all have one thing in common. They have spent their days working incredibly hard within their communities beyond politics. Republicans in Northern Virginia need to get away from just yelling at our television screens about how terrible Barack Obama is and instead get out into our communities. If you want to run for office one day then coach a youth sports team, join a Rotary or Lions Club, volunteer at your local church, be active in your HOA and PTA, or join local community boards for the Arts or for local committees that do things like plan parades. We need candidates that people know first as neighbors and friends. John Cook was the perfect example of this, a Republican who won Sharon Bulova’s supervisor seat because he had been president of the largest HOA in the district. Voters there knew him as a neighbor and someone who helped them with their community issues first. We need more candidates like this regardless of where they fall on the ideological spectrum of the party.
As for Brian, my advice (as if he’d listen) would be to follow this great Calvin Coolidge quote: “I’ve never been hurt by what I have not said.” If he put half the effort into working within his community as he does trying to win friends with politicians and starting Disqus fights he wouldn’t be 0-3 in political campaigns. He has a bad habit, as someone remarked to me, of stopping to kick every barking dog. Step away from the computer and go coach a youth sports team or volunteer to plan a local parade or do community outreach for your local church. Don’t run for office five days after moving into your district. Take time to learn about where you live and let people meet you as something other than a politician first. You came agonizingly close, anecdotally you were winning by 1pm. There is no substitute for what John Guevara brought to the table, he flat out outworked everyone in the race.
Brian is just another reminder of the rabbit hole Republicans have climbed down year after year locally when recruiting candidates. Ambitious climbers uninterested in the work for actually becoming a real community leader and instead relying on political networking and money of others. It must stop. Republicans need to be a little less concerned with tea party versus establishment up here because, frankly, we aren’t winning enough to have the luxury of that argument. There is no substitute for the one and true way to win campaigns … hard work when nobody is looking and earning the trust of your neighbors and community. Brian tried to use money and outside influence to avoid having to do that.
Onward to November.
41 comments
“Brian Schoeneman and his campaign manager Erika Dyer ran the best campaign of all three candidates in Sully district. He raised money, had volunteers, a plan to execute, and was able to expertly dodge the various attacks coming his way. And none of it mattered.”
It most certainly mattered. It demonstrated that a newcomer to the community with a strong platform and a well-organized operation came close to beating two long-standing representatives with what Jeanine and her muppets described as “deep roots” and “strong ties” to the local community. So much for that idea, eh?
“Saturday ended one of the more bizarre political experiments I’ve ever seen. Brian Schoeneman was trying to prove that if you have enough political connections, enough lobbyist money, and enough support among professional Republican bloggers you could move into a district you’ve never lived in and win a GOP nomination devoid of any practical community connections.”
Experiment? Schoeneman didn’t come into this race with some sort of loose hypothesis, putting his family’s time, money, and personal reputation on the line to prove it. And even if one were to embrace the “experiment” supposition, the closeness of the election disproves it. Guevara almost lost the election.
“The Republican politicians from Northern Virginia who are successful come from their community even if they are a lobbyist or a congressional staffer by trade.”
I agree that Brian’s weakness was his lack of community involvement. There is a reasonable case to be made that living in a community and being immersed in that community are two different things. But it’s fascinating that Brian was beat up for being a union lobbyist (for one that has nothing to do with Sully District) yet now you appear to be accepting it?
“There is no substitute for what John Guevara brought to the table, he flat out outworked everyone in the race.”
Bullshit. You don’t think Schoeneman hit the pavement like crazy? Wrote articles for local publications? Debated? Had coffees, dinners, etc.? Handed out literature at events? Manned the telephones with his team? Put his time and money on the line? Guevara coaching little league and working cub scouts doesn’t mean he “outworked anyone”.
“Republicans need to be a little less concerned with tea party versus establishment up here because, frankly, we aren’t winning enough to have the luxury of that argument. There is no substitute for the one and true way to win campaigns … hard work when nobody is looking and earning the trust of your neighbors and community. Brian tried to use money and outside influence to avoid having to do that.”
Establishment Republicans aren’t concerned with the tea party. Why? Guevara got beat 2-to-1 by establishment Republicans. If either Schoeneman or Litzenberger hadn’t run, Guevara would have lost by probably 150. Which is precisely why Guevara and notably his supporters need to stop beating up on the establishment and figure out how the establishment can help assure a victory vs. Kathy Smith.
With regard to all political candidates I thought I would post a statement by one of my personal heroes Teddy Roosevelt. “It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”
I wanted to say a word about Erika Dyer. I think she ran a good campaign and has a great future in politics. I hope we can all agree on that. The Republican Party needs more people like her.
Guys, please. Enough obsessing about me.
Kathy Smith is going to be tough to beat, and our nominee needs your help now.
Wasting time and energy talking about me isn’t going to get him elected. I’m not interested in any rehashing or discussions of the campaign, or of my personal relationships with folks you know. That’s between them and me. I emailed John congratulating him yesterday.
Start writing articles about Kathy Smith. It’s not about me anymore.
This post would be a lot more credible if the margin of victory wasn’t 56 votes. Generally I agree with your points, but when turnout is this low and that few votes separates the candidates, literally anything and anyone can be pointed to as a reason for a loss or a win.
You would be a lot more credible if you knew an “excuse” when you wrote one.
You just cannot bring yourself to congratulate and support yesterday’s winner can you Max? Because it was not one of your “good ole’ boys”.
Congratulations to John Guevara, who won without the support of the rich, good ole’ boys, and apparently still does not have it.
Yeah, sure congratulations. I live in Norfolk. Fairfax local elections don’t affect me unless one of them runs for state office. I wouldn’t expect you to be congratulating people in my city. I’m just pointing out that If Guevara was as good as you all say and had such deep connections, this race shouldn’t have even been close. If Brian had no connections, he shouldn’t have come within 56 votes of winning. Canvasses are tough, it looks like just 10 hours more or less of work from either candidate would have changed the outcome.
56 votes in a firehouse primary isn’t as close as you think it is.
His connects where with Pat Herrity and, more importantly, Barbara Comstock who cut a robo-call for him at the 11th hour. It’s a testament to both Litzenberger and Guevara’s local roots that they were able to overcome all the money and all the political support Brian had to actually win.
56 votes is 56 votes. I agree its not as close as you would think at first glance, but I ran a city council race last year in Norfolk and we won by 36 votes with turnout maybe twice what this race had. Very similar circumstances too. My candidate was a lifelong resident of the Ward and a decade long civic league President for the preeminent neighborhood. The guy who barely lost was an appointed school board member who’s Uncle was the first black elected council member and moved across town to run, from an area where he had been civic league President for years. I hate to say it, but had the election been one week later, my candidate would have lost.
It’s impressive that Guevara won, anytime you win a race this close its impressive. But money doesn’t really buy votes in a canvass. For Brian to have moved in 5 days before running and for turnout to have been this low, he either had to have impressed the hell out of a lot of people or nearly all of his votes came from die-hard loyalists to the electeds you mentioned. People who could have been reached out to without spending much money at all. Though I’d probably go with the latter based on what you’ve said, but we will never know for sure unless someone does a thorough post-mortem based on an analysis of the voter rolls.
Brian had a helluva campaign manager who worked her butt off calling the folks who vote in every election the older voters. They vote if they have to crawl to the polls. She convinced them Brian was way to the right, the most conservative man in the race. Her strategy was brilliant and almost worked, despite Brian being an unknown in the district.
Good read, and true. People that are involved in the community through volunteer work have credibility. Know your neighborhood and your neighbors, become a scout leader or PTA treasurer. Most people don’t care who you were having cocktails with last Tuesday, but if you coached their kid they will come vote for you!
http://bearingdrift.com/2015/04/25/guevara-wins-in-fairfaxs-sully-district/
Not sure what your point is here.
Time to close ranks Jeanine..
Where in the link that you posted does Bearing Drift’s Shaun Kenney congradulate the winner, John Guevara?
He does however congradulate both losers. No, it is time for BD to close ranks. You got it all wrong.
Absolutely! We’re still hoping that Brian, Barbara Comstock, Pat Herrity, and the others will soon call John Guevara, offer their congratulations, and unite as we move forward to keep that seat in Sully. Barbara sent a brief email to her supporters. It’s a start.
Yet another post degrading Bull Elephant. This blog was rising to become the number 1 source for breaking news and discussions about Va Republican politics and for the pst week it has fallen from grace with the exception of Steve Albertsons posts. Step back and look at the posts from 10,000 feet.. You all can do so much better.
Really? I thought the post was excellent. Chris Beer gives us a clear way to win elections. We all need to listen to his advice.
John needs Schoeneman and Litz supporters to be there when we as a party charge up the hill to defend this seat. Division costs us winnable elections.
Again, you are exactly right! We do need them if we are to keep this seat! Let’s hope they can bury their feelings against John and help us win this seat!
I don’t agree with everything Chris said, but he explained his points well and, a few simplifcations aside, there’s nothing too objectionable here. Not sure what your complaint is.
I agree…not sure why this post was the focus.
Post(s) of the last week.
Don’t be a crybaby!
I would like to hear from Brian Schoeneman as to whether he refused to shake Spike Williams’ hand. If true, it is an indication of a serious moral flaw.
Sad to say, it is true. We were all shocked.
I would give Brian some leeway here … he did just lose a pretty tough election. Let’s give everyone a day or two to decompress.
I would give Parachutist Schoeneman the same leeway that his Country Club, Bearing Drift, gives John Guevara, Susan Stimpson, and Dave Brat. Absolutely Zero.
Just look at the Bearing Drift Post, Kenney, (slave owner type) just cannot bring himself to congratulate the rightful winner of even a relatively minor, county district, BOS race. He just cannot do it.
But he did congratulate both the losers.
Bearing Drift should be disavowed by the Republcan’s Party, or, embraced by the Republcan Party. Which is it? Which is it going to be?
This is war, plain and simple. Middle-Class against the Corporate slave owners. Just look at their embrace of Carly Fiorina. Yet, when it comes to Susan Stimpson, nothing but support for HB2313 Howell, and the largest tax increase in Republican/Virginia History.
This is the Republican Party. Tax increases, ( HB2313) massive spending increases, (Bush/McDonnell admins.) criminal activety, (McDonnell) all good as long as it is Republican, and has good ole’ boy support???
What’s it going to be Mr. Whitbeck? Corporate, Catholic, Bearing Drift, slave owner types, or, middle-class America?
Fairfax’s Sully District spoke yesterday.
You cannot win statewide or nationwide elections without the middle-class. That would be me. You run a Schoeneman type, I’ll run my mouth, and vote Democrat. I will cross Party Lines, in a heartbeat. I will make a difference.
You seem to be a very angry guy. I hope you find peace some day. God bless.
It will take a lot of angry people to straighten out this country. I cannot do it alone.
God Bless.
“What’s it going to be Mr. Whitbeck? Corporate, Catholic, Bearing Drift, slave owner types, or, middle-class America?” What does Catholic have to do with it?
Religious diversity. When will we have a Protestant on the Supreme Court?
Why shouldn’t Protestants have representation on SCOTUS? Out of 9 Justices, not one Protestant.
You should do your homework. Who put them there?
Um, maybe because there is no litmus test to get on the SCOTUS. How about if we get SCOTUS members who will – oh I dunno – INTERPRET THE LAW and see if it’s compatible with the Constitution?! Religion is irrelevant both to the SCOTUS and this article.
I believe that the U.S. Senate conducts a litmus test on whoever the President nominates to SCOTUS, do they not?
Basically it seems you would like for SCOTUS to interpet the Constitution to your satisfaction? Doesn’t work like that.
To some of us, religion is always relevant.
Um … Protestant presidents put Catholics on the Supreme Court LOL.
That is debatable.
I believe Protestants represent about half the population of the U.S..
To say that a group that large should not be represented on SCOTUS, seems wrong.
It’s contingent upon how you go about counting Evangelical Christians, who typically do not self-identify as Protestants. The United States is about 20-25% Roman Catholic, 14-16% Protestant, and 26-28% Evangelical.
That said, how do you go about forcing the SCOTUS to be balanced? Would you legislate such a thing? Who would support the legislation?
Yeah, my question too. Why on earth bring religion into this?!
Seriously? Yes, Brian was mad but does that give him an excuse to be that rude? Guest is right, he has no business in politics if he can’t handle a loss. Men have lost the Presidency, which is a bit more than losing a primary race in Sully, and they didn’t behave this way. I understand it meant the end of Brian’s political career, but he could have, and should have, handled it differently.
Maybe I’m just too nice 😉
People who crave power will never stop attempting to force their good governance on the masses.