TBE Staff 2016 Election Predictions

Jeanine Martin:

The map below shows how I think Trump gets to the magic 270, actually 274. My biggest concerns are Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Nevada. If we win Pennsylvania, which is entirely possible, we could lose North Carolina and still win. The surprise state may well be Virginia, but I’m not prepared to predict it.

The Meals tax in the 11th is defeated because no one walks into a voting booth and votes to raise their own taxes. Having said that, only the Fairfax county has enough goofy liberals who may well vote to raise their own taxes.

Light rail in Virginia Beach will be defeated.

Barbara Comstock in the 10th district will win, but it will be close and it really shouldn’t be. Lu Anne Bennett is awful.

Joe Morrissey is elected Mayor of Richmond in a very close race with Lavar Stoney.

Steven Brodie Tucker:

Tucker says that Trump alters the map tomorrow, but probably not enough to win.

I fear that Florida and Virginia will hand this election to Secretary Hillary Clinton. Unless Donald Trump can win Virginia, Florida or Wisconsin, I do not believe that his appeal to the rust belt will prove victorious.

More from Steven’s analysis here.

Michael Giere:

This is a wave election, the likes of which we’ve not seen in nearly forty years.
Nearly two-thirds of the citizens think the country is on the wrong track; the economy, and thus economic growth, has been stagnant for a decade; wages have significantly declined in that same decade; employment, unemployment and part-time employment is a disaster; poverty and organized social unrest is off the charts; Obamacare is blowing up; illegal immigration is swamping the border states; the culture is in freefall; and the country has witnessed corruption and cronyism on a massive scale. Europe is imploding, and our enemies are boldly challenging the U.S. across the globe. Radical Islam is alive and well, and presents an imminent danger, both here and abroad.

Given those negative indicators, this election should be a massive landslide for change. Except…

Except, never before has the peoples own massive, bloated government been actively deployed against them in open hostility. In Congress and inside the powerful special interest groups – a wall of Democrats, and a remnant of Republicans in powerful positions of leadership are working against the citizens in every way possible (all with the people’s money!). The entire phalanx of the corporate media complex is against them. The trans-national corporations and the internationalist organizations are deployed against them.

All these forces, with trillions of dollars yet to plunder, are at war with the citizens of the United States.

What we will discover tomorrow is whether or not Donald J. Trump is the man who can ride the wave of discontent all the way into shore. His policies are sound and his program prescriptions are for the most part spot on, conservative and desperately needed, even with his imperfections as a candidate.

In the end, he has boldly identified the issues at stake, taken the fight to Mrs. Clinton, and created the energy that no other Republican that he defeated in the primaries could have duplicated, in hindsight.

If the angst, the disgust, and the cold fury of Americans has coalesced around The Donald in these last weeks, then this will be a breakout election, and the possibility is that Mr. Trump will not only win, but sweep the country and take some blue states with him.

Generally, one must give a healthy amount of respect to the polls. Mr. Trump and the hapless Mrs. Clinton, seem locked in a death grip, with only a whisker between them and the possibility of one or two states providing the victory, one way or another.

And yet, the undercurrent in this election is giving all the signs of a wave. A Trump wave.

With no special insight or knowledge my sense is that the American spirit is not yet finished. We are at a crossroads that is obvious to all but the willfully blind, those who are manacled to the state for a pot of porridge, or those internationalists who seek a brave new world and the opportunity to disassemble the U.S. economically and militarily.

One way leads us into the economic and social darkness that Europe is now descending into; the other way leads us into a bold new turn where “America First” becomes a priority again.
I’m “thinkin’ and prayin’” landslide. I’ll settle for a whisker.

Steve Albertson:

Republican Tom Garrett cruises to victory over deeply flawed Democratic opponent Jane Dittmar in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District.  Rep. Barbara Comstock will win over her challenger, DC resident LuAnn Bennett, and will do so with a margin that surprises most observers.  While they’ve been focused on the air war, Comstock is crushing the ground game, and it will show in a big way tomorrow. In the 2nd, Taylor chalks up an impressive win, and the less competitive races (1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, and 11th) will all go as everyone knows they will.

On the presidential side, like most observers, I bet against Donald Trump throughout the primaries.  I thought he was getting a lot of attention because of his celebrity status, but that his star would fade as voters reached the ballot box and made a more sober calculation.  Obviously, I was wrong.  Repeatedly and spectacularly.  I’ve learned my lesson about underestimating this phenomenon.

I’m not one who thinks all the polls are rigged, but do think that there is likely a modeling problem that understates Trump’s support.  In some of the cross-tabs I’ve seen, Trump is getting 30% or more of the African-American vote but Clinton still holds a narrow lead…something about that doesn’t add up, and suggests to me that many pollsters are flying by the seat of their pants in this most unpredictable of election seasons.

There is a limited traditional conservative case for Donald Trump, but there is certainly a tremendous conservative case to be made against Hillary Clinton.  So, what I think we’ll likely see tomorrow is the vast majority of Republicans coming home to support the nominee. At the same time, he will capture a good chunk of the Democrat base (blue collar, black, and Hispanic voters who wouldn’t back a traditional Republican), but lose a swath of otherwise conservative independents put off by his history of controversial comments.  That’s what will keep it close, but, for Hillary Clinton, it won’t be close enough.  Trump wins with 46% of the popular vote, and 297 electoral votes, to Clinton’s 45% and 238 electoral votes.

If I’m wrong, well, it’s just one more time that I will have not been able to figure out Trump.

Willie Deutsch:

While the country spans multiple time zones, the results out of the east coast should give a strong indicator of how the presidential race will go. The Trump path to victory requires a strong showing on the east coast.

Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania are all states to watch. To a lesser extent, so are Georgia, New Hampshire, and Maine. Trump can win Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio and still lose. He’s working to crack the rust belt with a win in Pennsylvania, or Michigan. They also believe they can win New Hampshire and do well in Maine. If returns there start looking good, it could be a long night for Clinton. Inversely, the Democrats have been working hard to put Georgia in play. If they are able to win either North Carolina or Georgia, Trump’s path to victory becomes almost impossible.
…
Most importantly, be well stocked on food and beverages, and be prepared for not knowing the results till very late at night. Real Clear Politics has Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada all within 3% in the presidential race. With similarly close Senate races, there is a good chance it will take a while before we know who controls the U.S. Senate or who wins the presidential election.

Willie’s full analysis can be found here.

Robert Kenyon

Trump gets 20% in Arlington, less than E.W. Jackson got.

In the 8th District race, Hernick gets 34%.

In the 10th, Comstock wins with 50-51%.

Fairfax: Meals tax defeated, but the Metro bond passes.

Arlington: Metro bond passes.

Trump wins in Ohio and Iowa. Clinton wins in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia. Florida is a toss-up.

Paul Prados

Trump: Wins New Hampshire, Iowa, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio.

Clinton: Wins Nevada and Colorado. I don’t think it needs mentioning, but also Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

Still too close: Virginia.

The meals tax in Fairfax will be barely defeated. The Virginia constitutional amendments will pass. Barbara Comstock wins with under 55% of the vote. Tom Garrett and Scott Taylor win, and Mike Wade loses handily.

Aaron Gulbransen

President
This has been the strangest and most unpredictable election in recent memory. Trump has had the momentum over the last week which has been great news for those of us (like me) working to get Trump elected but I honestly cannot predict the result. Predictable has not been a word to describe this Presidential election and there will likely be many surprises tomorrow. Given that I believe the Republican cause is the cause of the angels, I’m hoping we get the by W tomorrow.

Prediction: Too close to call.

VA-5
Garrett defeats Dittmar by 4-6 points. Over the last month or so, looking to ensure victory, the NRCC invested over $800,000 in the 5th District and I expect Garrett to win by a comfortable margin. It will be good to have another real conservative in the House of Representatives.

Prediction: Garrett

VA-2
All the reports I’ve been receiving tell me that Scott Taylor will win comfortably.and the 2nd, home of the largest group of active and retired military veterans in Virginia, will be represented by another veteran.

Prediction: Taylor by 8 points.

VA-1
Wittman will cruise to re-election and then head right into a contested Governor’s primary.

Prediction: Wittman by double digits.

VA-9
The 9th District will likely yield Trump a double digit lead there and the House Freedom Caucus member, Morgan Griffith will be comfortable re-elected.

Prediction: Griffith by double digits.