Focusing on intricate details and explaining phenomenon on a micro scale we often forget the driving force behind political involvement for the average voter, they want to vote for someone who will lead them, protect them, provide for them, or be like them. At the end of the day the choice to support a Republican nominee is a gut decision based on these basic characteristics for most voters. It is reflected in polling that asks a few hundred voters between dinner and prime time to choose from a laundry list of candidates and hang up.
So many of us, who consume political news on a regular basis, fail to recognize the gut decision made by most voters.
I have struggled to understand the Trump phenomenon. I wonder how someone with previous leftist, and currently agnostic political leanings could capture the imagination of a solid plurality of Republican leaning voters. My problem is that I am trying to impose my reasoning (not my values) on these upcoming caucus and primary voters. Instead of thinking that they think like me, I am trying to understand how to think like them. I’ve found my personal correlation, and from that I feel I can identify how many of the others are operating.
WHEN ECONOMICS AND GAME THEORY DO NOT WORK
There are times in life where cost benefit analyses are thrown out the window, where the risk and reward no longer are taken into consideration, and where our losses are so steep you incur substantial additional losses with little concern.
In this situation, an otherwise rational actor may instead follow their base instincts and seek retribution against the people or system that did them in. Let us be honest about the three pillars of the Republican stool.
No matter what Republican is elected President:
For the SoCons:
– Abortion will likely remain legal nationwide.
– Gay marriage is here to stay.
– The welfare state will continue to perpetuate single parent families.
For the national security conservatives:
– America will likely never be the great superpower it was during the cold war ever again.
– The military will continue to support bloated, capital intensive, pet projects over focused regional specific offensive and defensive capabilities.
– We will continue to have an offensive and defensive military and foreign policy lacking cohesion, and at best will be repairing relationships with former allies.
For the economic conservatives:
– The national debt is out of control.
– Federal spending, discretionary, and nondiscretionary will continue to exacerbate the problem.
– The federal regulatory state (the quiet economy strangler) will continue largely unabated.
And Republicans in Washington are complicit in all of these things.
So there are Pessimists and Optimists who support Trump because of this.
I do not support Trump, but I’m beginning to understand why Pessimists and Optimists may do so.
THE PESSIMIST SUPPORT FOR TRUMP
The Pessimist sees the writing on the wall and doesn’t care anymore. With nothing left to lose the pessimist sees someone from outside the system who guarantees to f*** some s*** up, and says “that’s what they deserve.” The Pessimist does not believe that Trump will reflect their values. The Pessimist does not believe that Trump will protect them. The Pessimist gets two emotional benefits from Trump. First the Pessimist obtains a leader that is likely to lead without lying nearly as much as the powers that be. This leader is known to be imperfect, nasty, and petty, but he shows the pessimist more respect by not suggesting he isn’t imperfect, nasty and petty. More important for the Pessimist is that Trump provides a benefit. That benefit derives from base emotions, the kind that can poison your soul if you allow it. Trump will get revenge for the Pessimist. Revenge on the Vichy Republicans in Washington; revenge on the Democrat PC nanny statists; revenge on the Mexicans who send their economically weakest to exploit America’s largesse; revenge on terrorists and their PC sympathizers; and revenge on Chinese global economy manipulators. The Pessimist does not truly know the nature of this revenge, but Trump has promised it to the Pessimist, and the Pessimist (and I) truly believe Trump will follow through.
THE OPTIMIST SUPPORT FOR TRUMP
There are far more Optimists who support Trump. Some believe that Trump simply exemplifies their values. Many believe that he is a leader. Optimists do not care about the specifics. They see a leader and are ready to follow. Trump is a winner, Trump will not be bullied, Trump will find a way to accomplish his goals. Many Trump supporters view him as someone who will protect them. Whether it is against foreign economic adversaries, foreign military adversaries, or foreign nonviolent invaders, Trump will protect America at all costs. Trump will coerce and bully when necessary, but the Optimist knows they will be safe under a Trump presidency. Lastly, most Optimists believe Trump will provide something for them. Trump will provide a counterbalance to business as usual. To the Optimist a Trump presidency means the special interests will have to take a back seat.
In the end, both sets of people (nearly all Trump supporters) supporting Trump are not doing so because of a rational decision making process, but because of the emotional feelings gleaned from the fantasy of a Trump Presidency.
As one who looks at policy, the likelihood of follow-through on my values, and electability, Trump is in the middle of the pack for me. I think the people for whom Trump is their first choice largely fall into one of the two above categories and are making an emotional decision.
Disclaimers:
This article deviates substantially from my general commentary that is heavily based on fact rather than opinion. I will try not to make a habit of it. I am a Rand Paul supporter.
UPDATE: I apparently have been unclear about a couple of points that stuck in the craw of some Trump supporters.
When I am referring to a Trump fantasy, I am not suggesting your beliefs are pie-in-the-sky. Trump does not have a history as a politician so in reality we do not know how he is likely to govern. That is not necessarily a bad thing.
For any Trump supporter saying they do not fit into one of the two categories: I said MOST Trump supporters fit into one of the two categories. Moreover, the disdain you sense from my description of the two categories is not real. I actually suspended my normal thought processes and found that I understand and agree with much of the sentiment. I’m loathe to admit this, but I side substantially with the Pessimists I describe above. Finally, phrases like “political fist in the mouth,” “really, just stop,” “rocked the media and establishment,” “disgusted…by phony and self serving politicians,” “foster parent of it infecting Virginia,” and “the GOPE’s had their chance and blew it,” all suggest a strong emotional response. You ARE NOT being irrational. You are, as I said, relying on your gut or intuition. Intuition is applied experience. Intuition plus logic is how I make decisions in my own life.
Finally, on the point of who I support. I purposefully put that in, as I have in the past. All the time commentary comes from people who have an agenda they are hiding. My agenda here was to point out that I had been struggling to understand Trump, but I kind of get it now. When I think of it the way I describe above, supporting Trump is not nearly as hard for me. I lament the negativity felt between otherwise kindred spirits in this primary process. Rather than describe Trump supporters as the “other” in need of isolation and ostracism, I described them as people with goals and desires that I can identify with.
Feel free to describe your reasons for supporting Trump in the comments below, or even ask to do a guest post. Just don’t be surprised when I try to point out that I think your thoughts fit into the paradigm set out above. Finally, don’t be surprised when you look back or find in the future that we are on the same team.
22 comments
I like his tax plan better than Cruz’s and I like his reciprocity position…
Ok, I have to ask:
Based on your “three pillars of the Republican stool” and the subsequent list of things that will not be changing…Why the hell should we be voting for a Republican? Or even voting at all?
Frankly, if I really believed that it was impossible to change any of those things then I’d just give up on the political process entirely.
Good points. The presidency does not change everything. If it did we would be even farther down the toilet from 7+ years of Obama. The presidency is the single hugest part in changing things. Voting, and working for this part is important. We also need to stem the tide on things going in the other direction, which suggests you should still vote and work for your candidates.
Could have saved us all time and said you support Rand Paul in your first sentence.
Insanity is repeating the same thing over and over, and expecting a different outcome. The GOPE’s had their chance and blew it. I don’t vote democrat, and I am done repeating myself w/the GOP, so that leaves Trump. It’s that simple.
Rational thought for most ended when the country ran off the rails ten years ago. Trump represents a fist in the mouth of the tenured politicians who allowed it to happen without recourse.
Ugh. I’m getting tired of political pundents thinking they can interpret my “fantasies”. Really, just stop.
I am a Trump supporter and.I don’t fit into any of the categories as well f many of n fellow supporters.
Is irrational to want a 100% halt to Muslim immigration, especially muslims from stone age cultures who see rape and subjugation as normal? Is irrational to want the border fiasco gotten under control? Stop the thousands of migrants including muslims coming in through Mexico and our southern border? Trump is the only candidate who has said loud and clear he would address these issues. He rocked the media and establishment by doing so. All other candidates including Rand Paul have not exhibited leadership or standing up for American citizens in regards to this most important issue of our time. Rand Paul pandered to the Zuckerberg crowd and he lost a lot of credibility, very poor choice.
I do not see myself or others that I know discuss Trump as irrational or emotional. I do not worship Trump anymore than any politician. I plan on monitoring his actions like any other politician.
I think the political class or insiders do not know real leadership when they see it. They have accepted the status quo. They do not understand how infuriated the country is regarding immigration and also how disgusted they are by phony and self serving politicians. People on this blog who are so shocked that Barbara Comstock turned out to be such a phony. I wasn’t, it was clear to me and my friends that she is a political insider bought and paid for. Yet, people like me are emotional and irrational because we don’t choose to sip the republican koolaid anymore.
Good post, right on the money. The optimists are looking for someone to lead us (them) out of this mess. They like the idea of a real leader.
Yep, it’s the desire for a strong leader that drives everything else and gives hope of stopping what the Republican establishment has enabled. I understand that. But I do feel like I’m reliving a mirror image of 2008 — a charismatic candidate comes on the scene, offering hope and change, and large numbers of people willfully refuse to pay attention to that candidate’s past.
I grant you many of your doubts regarding Trump but to compare him to Obama how that is a reach to many especially given that he and Cruz largely cover the same philosophical ground regarding the state of the nation. I’ve noticed that a not insignificant level of Cruz support never seems to focus on what he uniquely will do as a candidate to address our issues but rather seems to related to him as a “not” Trump. Not a confidence builder for someone like myself that would like to better understand what his supporters believe he brings to the table besides his acclaimed conservatism. The Tea Party put several of those type of individuals in Congress and I would have to say that the track record has been very mixed on the whole.
“…given that he and Cruz largely cover the same philosophical ground regarding the state of the nation.”
I don’t think that’s true. I have no idea what Trump believes regarding the state of the nation. He’s said he think Bill De Blasio will be a great major. That kind of utterance, like so many of his past statements, tells me he’s not going to be the wrecking ball to the Uniparty or a protector of the Constitution we might want him to be.
I think Cruz has already been a change agent, just by standing a thwart history and, as Bill Buckley said, yelling “Stop!” He moved the window of what is acceptable to think and say to the point that Donald Trump felt comfortable enough to start his own attacks.
I can’t predict in detail Cruz as a chief executive, but one thing I expect for sure vigorous lawfare by the DOJ on issues dear to conservatives. Cruz has already done this as Texas Solicitor General, supervising hundreds of attorneys. Similarly, I expect some stellar Supreme Court appointments, whereas Trump’s will be more squishes, like his pro-abort sister whom he’s said would be a great Supreme Court judge. I also expect an administration full of conservative appointments,
That’s enough from me, but I could go on. Cruz is not perfect, and I’d expect some disappointments from him.
I pay attention ro his past and it has always been pro- American , and that is pro -American labor , and pro-American Commerce.
For Republicans to Trade with Communist and leave us with a 500 Billion Trade deficit and scourched bussinesses all over the Country , I think the Republicans need a little REPATRIOTISM to America.
I agree, ameri..can with the need for changes in trade and other areas, and I also think Trump’s history shows him to be a patriot, but I think his history shows his highest priority is the fortunes of Donald Trump. He’s shown no willingness to place the fortunes of Donald Trump in peril for a principle.
I think he is using the timing of an incredible opportunity to make America work again and in the process for him personally go down as a great leader in American History.
At his age and financial success he knows the saying ; you can’t take it with you. It is simple as a man work hard , take care of your family and then take care the Community.
So in his head leave the fortune to family and
Make America Great Again !
Agree on your assessment of reliving 2008…and I don’t want to relive the last 7 years with an over-reaching executive. If Trump were elected I can see him losing his patience with Congress and resorting to Executive Orders to get things done – just like Obama. Trump’s brand of leadership may work well in the boardroom, but not in government. Constitutional government is a deliberate process, whether we like it or not, and it takes a special type of leader to work within Constitutional boundaries to get things done.
I look at it rather simply given my “subjective view” of the last two likely standing. Cruz is a passionate ranter, if you believe ranting can shape change and shift policies then he is your guy (although he is going to have to up the rant volume significantly as his efforts to date in the Senate haven’t really accomplished all that much). Trump is a wrecking ball with expertise in clearing ground and knocking things about with the not infrequent tendency of shattering some good along with the bad. So leaving aside the pessimists and the optimists for a second, as well as, the definition of who or what is a conservative in today’s almost complete Republican deconstruction of the meaningfulness of the political term and concept does the sorely set upon American middle and working class voter after eight years of the Obama Administration respond more favorably to the ranter or the wrecking ball. All the political pundit finger wagging and name calling isn’t going to shift much at this late date as people just aren’t listening anymore in any meaningful manner to those “claiming to be in the know”. So it’s pick your poison if you self identify as a knowledge political insider and get ready for a rough ride. I do note for those that still might be operating with an open mind on the issue that when you are facing a major remodeling project I can never recall starting the effort with a series of impassioned rhetorical discourses on the state of drywall but I do always seem to look for my sledge hammer and pry bar. Just a though.
Right, but that’s you using that sledge hammer and pry bar.
What if you’re considering hiring someone else for the job, someone who not only has a skimpy resume when it comes to the type of remodeling you’re hiring for, but in the past has always seemed to be missing when it came time to do similar work. Now he’s telling you he’ll change his ways, because he wants the job, and he cares about you. If you just want someone to rip out the walls by being a wrecking ball, he might suffice. On the other hand, you might wind with a mess so big you can’t even live in the house anymore, and no one able to enforce your contract.
We are at a point that the options aren’t great in either case but Cruz is no change agent and in other times and circumstances would suffice but today with what is entrenched in DC I’m increasingly doubtful he is up to the task. A really crappy decision tree when you are looking at the future of your children and grandchildren so I will continue to ponder.
Now for me as a Real { Virginia } Builder and employer by Profession of 30 Years.
The first thing the isotoner wearing Republicans do is import illegal aliens to do the work substandard to the legal employer , your neighbor.
Then put in on the market $ 10,000.00 cheaper.
I know we ate alot of candy over the holidays , it is time for republicans to step out of the working mans way and go shed their candy a$$es.
There is a good post on Cruz w/his financial dealings at the Last Refuge. Frightening if pans out to be true.
I don’t fit in your minimization of Trump supporters .
I have a bona-fide issue with elected Virginia Republicans pandering to their { one day hope of being } senior counterpart on illegal immigration by not enforcing Virginia Law and being the foster parent of it infecting Virginia.