Democrats can’t decide if they want a socialist or pragmatist at top of the ticket; but the electoral college is key
The Democratic primary/caucus electorate is clearly split – Fickle, in fact.
On the one hand, avowed Democratic-Socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders appears to have won both the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary this past Tuesday.
But in a close second and third place are the pragmatists — former South Bend, IN, Mayor Pete Buttigieg in a close second, and surging Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) in third.
Months ago, it seemed Joe Biden was such a threat that it prompted President Trump to put a call in to the president of the Ukraine to investigate his son’s cushy lobbying deal with a Ukrainian gas
company (a move that prompted his recent impeachment – and acquittal).
We also thought Democrats wanted a street fighter, and were told that would be Elizabeth Warren.
Liberals in my inner circle were gushing at the prospects of seeing the Massachusetts senator on the debate stage with Donald Trump. Now, both Old Bulls, Biden and Warren, appear to be toast, barring some miracle in the upcoming Nevada caucus or South Carolina primary.
In fact, the elevation of Buttigieg and Klobuchar seems to show that a large portion of Democrat voters want someone nice. They each remind me of the Good Boy and Good Girl from the Midwest – Buttigieg an Alfred E. Newman/Howdy Doody look-alike, and Klobuchar kind of a Happy Warrior like her fellow Minnesotan, the late Vice President and Senator Hubert Humphrey.
Apparently, no Democrat has won the presidential nomination without coming in first or second in the New Hampshire primary. This may bode well for Sanders and Buttigieg, the latter being a potential new Obama – someone with a limited elected record, but who speaks in platitudes.
Democrats don’t know how to govern and just are good at speeches and tickling voters with “good feel” messages, right? I will be the first to admit that I am not the best predictor of elections, although I went with Trump the very day he announced his candidacy in June 2015, and am still with him. However, I throw these ideas out for consideration:
- Do the Fickle-crats have an all-white problem? — It’s ironic that the party overtaken by the academic Left and it’s ideology that the U.S. is a systemic racist “white privileged” society now has no non-white person running for president, with Asian Andrew Yang dropping out of the race. But hypocrisy never stopped the Democrats from proclaiming they are the party of “diversity,” and of course, the media are their apologists.
- Can any of the all-white bunch attract African American voters? Hillary Clinton’s failure to get a good surge of black votes in 2016 helped lose the election for her. So, would an African American running mate excite the black base? I am unsure. Like most liberals, African American voters vote based on emotion and “The Feel.” So, they already had the “thrill” of an African American president – -why would having an African American vice president turn them out? Who would that be – Corey “Spartacus” Booker, or California street fighter Kamala Harris who is only part black?
- Is former NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg the Democrat dark horse? I doubt it. By the time Super Tuesday rolls around March 3, “Boobberg’s” millions in TV ads is not going to turn the needle in his direction. By that time, there will be just two or three candidates in the race and activists, donors and voters will coalesce around him (or her). Plus, he’s too moderate and rich for these Fickle-crats.
- Is hatred of Trump enough for the Democrats to win? Some 70% of Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats said they picked a candidate based on “who could beat Trump.” Despite the great results in this economy, Democrats – -who are now the party of the well to do or government dependent – care more about having an “idol” to worship who will be nice on TV and in their rhetoric. I wrote about that some two years ago
- Is Trump’s solid base and money enough to win the election? Trump has a core base of about 45% of the electorate, according to most polls and pundits. His fundraising is phenomenal — $111 million in cash on hand as of Feb. 3 But there are some “never Trumpers” among Republicans who just might not vote for him. The key thing is whether Trump can win some more new voters, black voters and swing Democrats to get majorities in the key states.
- Is it better for Trump to face a socialist or pragmatist? Conventional wisdom says that Sanders is poison for the Democrats as he potentially wards off big donors and presents challenges for Senate and House Dems in key swing districts. In my view, Sanders is a problem for Trump because it precludes votes for a Green Party candidate and keeps the Democrat Socialists engaged. The Greens have cost Democrats elections, notably Hillary Clinton. They are already fielding presidential candidates , and it appears the very articulate Jill Stein who was their standard bearer in 2016 is not among them.
- The electoral college is still key. I would love Trump to win a popular vote majority but am unsure that can happen unless voters in swing suburban areas wake up and see the results vs. the rhetoric. Despite Trump’s surprise victories in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 – three states that Republicans have failed to carry since 1988 – in reality, to get to 270, he only needs to hold on to the very Red states in the South and West and win Ohio and Florida (or some other combination).
This upcoming case before the Supreme Court on whether electors are bound to vote for the popular vote winner in their states could pose some challenges. Virginia’s House passed this bill just the other day to require electors to vote the way of the national popular vote. Of course, the liberal media is focusing on the horse race facet, refusing to address the threat of the Greens or Libertarians. You can count on the media to coalesce around whomever the Democrat is and sanitize any of their peccadilloes.
It’s going to be a pivotal election. Will the common folks whom Trump has championed prevail, or the ungrateful latte-lapping hypocritic wealthy liberals who are sucking up the benefits of the Trump economic boom, but want a Teddy Bear in the White House to make them feel the country is rid of a man, who is so crass?
For now, the Left is Ficklephrenic and we Republicans are united. I hope there will be victory from unity and leave the Fickle-crats in the dust come Nov. 3.