In the latest Virginia Senate poll from Roanoke College, Senator Tim Kaine has a 17% lead over Corey Stewart,(51%-34%). From the Roanoke poll,
A plurality of voters (25%) see economic issues as most important in the Senate election, followed by health care (11%), education (6%), immigration (6%), honesty/character (6%), and stopping Donald Trump (5%).
Half of likely voters (50%) have a favorable view of Kaine (33% unfavorable), while a plurality (43%) still does not know enough about Stewart to have an opinion. Those who do are split evenly, with 23 percent having a favorable view of Stewart and 23 percent having an unfavorable view.
A plurality of likely voters (46%) think that Kaine’s positions are about right for Virginia, while just over one-third (35%) think they are too liberal. Voters are slightly more likely to think Stewart’s views are too extreme for Virginia (27%) than to think they are about right (24%), but a plurality (42%) are unsure.
A majority of voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing, 53% compared to 32% who approve.
When voters were asked if they prefer that the Democrats control Congress or Republicans, Democrats were on top 46% to 35%. Not even close.
My conclusions, Kaine will blanket the airwaves throughout the fall because he has raised almost $19 million to Stewarts $1.3. Kaine will win with over 60% of the vote. Republicans will lose several seats in the House due to Virginia’s voters dislike of Trump. With the help of Virginia, Democrats will take over the House and immediately begin impeachment charges against the President. It’s going to get ugly out there!
More details on the poll here.
70 comments
Ain’t we Mary Sunshine?
A former Governor, incumbent Senator, Hillary’s choice as heartbeat away, dem candidate for Veep only has 51%… Now???
I think you’re more optimistic for the dems than they are.
Perhaps this will election will convince RPV and SCC that primaries in Virginia are not a good idea. How many people voted for Corey simply because he was the only name they recognized or vaguely remember. Let’s have people who actually know the candidates choose our nominee. I know, it’s a crazy idea but it just might work.
I voted for Stewart. In the end I knew no Republican can win a statewide election in VA anyway barring outright divine intervention, so, may as well pick someone who will go down swinging. Freitas would have used his run as a springboard to run for something else down the road so he would have by necessity held back and “lost gracefully”. With Stewart I don’t have to worry about that. This is probably his last rodeo so I can count on him to make it hurt for Kaine, who if wounded badly enough this time may think twice about trying the White House again.
Yep, not sure they have the EpiPen against Corey.
Freitas isn’t one of us. Corey is.
Nick is on board, his machine is being activated.
Our RPV SCC? Learn lessons from elections? HA!
More people than the other guy.
Sadly enough, the stupid primaries are more fair and balanced than our zombie prom “conventions.”
I did know my candidates and issues, and that is why I voted for Corey.
Right, because we R’s can always depend on SCC to pick us a winner.
Think about it, they could have put in anyone they wanted, especially Nick, in a convention.
The establishment SCC picked a primary because they wanted Corey to be the nominee.
This election is John Whitbeck and SCC playing the long game to send Corey to Washington… Boom!
Corey is down only 17 points? Compared Kaine vs Stewart to Mark Warner vs Ed Gillespie four years ago. Ed was down 20+ points throughout the summer of 2014 with Roanoke College, Hampton University, CBS/New York TImes and Christopher Newport polls. Ed lost that election by less than 1%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia,_2014
Corey and I walked the Clarke County Fair last week. He was very well received by the grassroots. Unwise to count Corey out.
“53% had at least a Bachelor’s Degree with 28% having a higher level degree. 65% of those polled were 45 or older.” Comment that has been made about the people that were polled.
Shall we guess about what kind of degree? I think there was a recent article…
Jeanine, at this point in the 2016 cycle, you posted a very similar article about Trump, citing his poor polls and his campaign money problems, and you even questioned whether it was time for the GOP to save itself and abandon Trump with this headline
WILL THE REPUBLICAN PARTY CUT THEIR LOSSES AND ABANDON TRUMP? Aug 2016
A few months earlier you had already predicted his victory,
TRUMP WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER BECAUSE OF THE LEFT’S BULLYING June 2016
But before that you had already written him off,
TRUMP’S UNFAVORABLE NUMBERS–HOW CAN HE POSSIBLY WIN? Mar 2016
Yes, you did support Trump in November, and your analysis was mostly fair throughout, and I appreciated all those articles. However, your predictions were meaningless.
You might be right and Stewart gets blown out, but what is the point of making these predictions? Personally, I try to restrain myself from making election predictions. I’m never comfortable with a big GOP lead in polls, and on the other side, I don’t criticize GOP supporters who continue to fight when the polls seem hopeless for our candidate. Elections are tough and sometimes surprising. All the winners and losers will have plenty of opportunity to say “I told you so” in the post election analysis.
Trump continues to be the gift that keeps on giving … for the Dems. The chance of having a strong and dignified leader in the white house (and winning some votes from the middle) has been squandered by an undisciplined, self-aggrandizing blowhard.
Our ‘strong and dignified’ can’t get elected to squat.
That’s President Blowhard to you bucko!
If Trump’s approval rating here is 32 percent that is a good 10-15 points below the national average. So either Virginia is about as liberal as California now or this poll is oversampling Democrats.
Jeepers, a wrong poll? In August? Oh noes!
We Trump people love to jack with the pollsters — I poll so democrat, move-on has me on speed dial for protests!
Ha ha, then watch the media implode on election night.
Well, lacking any kind of unity, this is to be expected. I hope the sanctimonious don’t break their arms patting themselves on the back with another six years of Sen. Kaine who spent a lot of senate time running for Vice President while his son got arrested for rioting with the Antifa riff-raff the Senator has yet to condemn. You really DESERVE what ever this election delivers!
We always do — our party conservative establishment do not deserve our President… but they are tired of winning.
Nov 9, 2016
“Hillary Clinton is on the cusp of a commanding presidential election victory over Donald Trump if the latest poll – 51-37 in the Democrat’s favor – is to be believed. The Associated Press-GfK poll gives the Democrat her largest lead yet with just 12 days until the election. The poll showed Mrs Clinton has the support of 90 per cent of likely Democrat voters, and also has the backing of 15 per cent of more moderate Republicans. Just 79 per cent of all Republicans surveyed said they were voting for their party’s nominee. With voting already underway in 37 states, and Mrs Clinton leading in many of the key swing states, Mr Trump’s opportunities to overtake his rival are quickly evaporating.”
Of course the weeks before and after this poll, Clinton and Trump were with single digits of each other. In other words this was an outlier poll. Then Clinton went on to win by 3. This Kaine lead is consistent with past polls and is no outlier. But you keep hoping there.
“Then Clinton went on to win by 3.” Wrong. In the votes that count, she lost 304-227, which is 14%.
Clinton won? Is that the stuff you tell yourself in the mirror every day?
Ummm, there is no electoral college for Senate. Straight up popular vote, which Clinton won by 3. Figured a smart guy like you would know that!!
Sure. Clinton had a Full House. But the game was Bridge, not Poker, so Clinton didn’t win anything. If the game had been Poker, she would have lost that game too, because Trump is still smarter and works much harder than she does, no matter what game you want to play. Of course, after Trump beats her at Poker, Clinton would still be whining that she should have won because her Queens are really better cards than his Kings.
Are you saying Corey Stewart can win? Never say never but it seems very unlikely.
Yes.
Oh yes, and it will be glorious!
And Trump becoming the nominee and President, and being as conservative and successful was?
Apples to oranges comparison given how the votes are tabulated in a presidential vs state-wide race.
True enough. President’s aren’t directly elected.
Senators shouldn’t be either — the 17th was to protect against Senators being only rich guys — that worked out as well as prohibition.
Now Senators are ‘supercongressmen’ that only have to pander to population centers. Ever wonder why Federalism is dead?
Not quite, polls were incorrect in several states as well — they had it broke down by states as well.
Not in Virginia. They were surprisingly accurate.
Virginia polls are magic.
Virginia is a blue state, why is Kaine leading a surprise?
Nothing to see here; move along…
Jeanine if you were covering the War of Independence in the way you slant your anti Trump/Stewart singluar thought messaging we would be singing Hail To The Queen vs the National Anthem? Even on Nov. 6th win or lose it would not be over and I think you know why! The GOP is now Trump’s Party and if anyone stupidly believes the impeachment cries, and if it did happen by some fantasy miracle, Trump would be far more of a legend and dangereous with Pence at the helm. His twitter account would rule the media more so than now! Hail Trump and Corey Stewart who is not going away either regardless of outcome. The GOP are not great at running elections and grassroots systems are embedded in this state and these people are particular and knowledgeable and also careful on who they mark on those ballots.
I voted for Trump and I support him! How would Trump be ‘more dangerous’ with Pence in charge. I don’t think Trump is dangerous now but it sounds like you do.
Yeah, My mother thought we were going to lose WWII.
The same thinking, and rhetoric that was said in 2016. Have you not learned anything yet?
Was Trump down 17 points 74 days before the election? Did he have no money?
We shall see. I do know Grassroots activists are out GOTV. We have always known we wouldn’t get help from those “NeverTrumpers”. Why worry with it. There is a job of GOTV to do. If someone can’t dedicate 1 hour a week to Door Knocking,(community engagement), don’t pretend your an active Republican,(not saying “you” meant for those lazy country Club Reswampilcans.
This election really is more about Kaine. People don’t like him. He IS Antifa Kaine
People don’t like Kaine? Every single poll of people disagrees with you.
Kaine seems quite popular for someone no one likes.
Corey best spend some of his funds on a PR firm that can rehabilitate his image.
Virginia isn’t the state it was 10 years ago. We’ve been “mcauliffed”. Kaine also picked Spanberger to challenge Brat in the 7th. It would be nice if Kaine were as effective as a senator as he is running to be a senator. His debate with Pence in 2016 is embarrassing.
It will break my heart if we lose Brat. He’s Virginia smartest and best Congressman.
He’s my congressman and it would break my heart as well. The good news is that he has met most of his constituents in person and we love him. We are his only special interest! Spanberger is busy “being nice” and making promises she won’t remember or be able to keep. She is saying whatever the liberal socialists want to hear.
Brat’s problem is there will be a bunch of establishment republicans who aren’t going to vote come November and then blame Brat for what they did
I agree. It’s a battle we’re fighting daily. They are part of the reason that Virginia now the southernmost northeastern state.
I want my state back! Vote Corey!
It’s not the conservatives that are staying home against Brat and Corey, it the huge independent vote that will flex their muscles to toss both out. Facts are facts.
I dunno, I’m betting that the independents will be good and hacked off enough to put in Corey and the Republicans just for spite!
Then you’ve not been listening to Establishment Republicans talk about how much they want Brat out – following the lead of the Bearing Left online news.
Wasn’t trump down big a couple of months before the election? Hillary won don’t you know.
Down 17 with no money?
…the key being “no money”.
And Trump lost Virginia.
Strategically so.
He’ll have enough to do what it needs to do.
Do you mean to tell me Stewart has an electability issue?! If only someone had said something sooner! LOL
We tried, we tried. You really can fool some of the people all of the time and the Stewart supporters fall into that chasm.
Well now are you saying us Corey Stewart supporters are beneath your intellect? It sure must be special having such a high sense of self worth , congratulations. Many of us Corey Stewart supporters also feel we are among the superior intellect because Tim ( Do Nothing ) Kaine just repeats the same old same old that everyone is used to hearing. No surprise right?
We’re deplorables again, same as it ever was.
The voters (not quite like me) are always right.
If your moderate logic was right, we’d now have Ed G. as gov.
The Republican voters of Virginia chose from the options given.
Nick was only dragged in by the establishment at the last min. months after CS announced. He had no state-wide profile and only served 2 legislative sessions in VA, a state he had little track record in. Plus his campaign and family whined about every little blog comment thrown at them. This didn’t help.
They didn’t bring their best — interesting thing is, Nick could own the entire Corey Machine if he went all in for Senator Corey — what’s it going to cost him?
This is why you support the nominee, to show them you’re not the slug they opposed, unless you’ve drunk the#Never-Ade.
And it’s not like the establishment will support him next time — they’ll like be all ‘John Adams.’
Always stay positive, Jeanine.