Looking at the polls, I still believe that Donald Trump has a chance to win. He may have redrawn the American electoral map. Donald Trump could strike a death blow to democrats living in the rust belt selling out to corporate interests on K Street, by winning in the American manufacturing region. Folks whose jobs are threatened by free trade and the EPA seem certain to cross party lines and vote in larger numbers for Trump.
However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that Donald Trump wins. The federal government has made its importance known. There are States, like Virginia, that depend upon a rapidly expanding federal government for revenue. Virginia, Florida, California, New York and Maryland are but a few examples.
My predictions are predicated upon enthusiasm, polling data, early voting and state-dependency on federal dollars. This map is based on an analysis of data, not on the historical analysis of data.
I fear that Florida and Virginia will hand this election to Secretary Hillary Clinton. Unless Donald Trump can win Virginia, Florida or Wisconsin, I do not believe that his appeal to the rust belt will prove victorious. I believe that Trump’s unfavorables with a motivated Hispanic population will deprive him of Florida and Arizona. I believe he will nearly pick up the manufacturing States of Michigan and Pennsylvania. However, the rust belt will not be enough to suppress Hispanic outrage over Trump’s anti-illegal immigrant policies. Wisconsin, which ought to go Trump’s way, could remain blue on the basis of labor-union support. Virginia and Maryland remain blue, due to their fiscal dependency on Washington D.C. excess.
While I know this map is divergent from 538 and Real Clear Politics, I believe that President Obama’s speeches and influence will drive university students in Virginia, Arizona and Florida to push Hillary Clinton over the edge.
By my calculations, the only chance Donald Trump has of winning the White House, is winning Virginia.
I believe that Virginia, not Florida, is now the key to the White House. While we do not boast rust belt identity, Southwest Virginia resembles Tennessee and West Virginia more than it does Northern Virginia. The problem is that Roanoke is packed with liberal transplants and will likely vote for Clinton by a wide margin.
Charlottesville, Virginia will go for Hillary too. Blacksburg, Richmond and Christiansburg will vote for Hillary. Do not be surprised if poor rural areas, comprised of immigrant labor and African Americans vote for Hillary. Norfolk and Virginia Beach will vote for Hillary.
My point is this: you have 48 hours to change the minds of the voting public. You have 48 hours to make sure that Hillary Clinton isn’t the next President of the United States. It has come down to us, Virginia; to decide the next President of the United States. If Virginia goes blue, so too does the nation. If we support Trump, he’ll be the next President of the United States. Any vote but a vote for Trump is a vote against Trump. Whomever wins Virginia will be the next President of the United States of America.
This is our moment. Take it, or leave it.