Looking at the polls, I still believe that Donald Trump has a chance to win. He may have redrawn the American electoral map. Donald Trump could strike a death blow to democrats living in the rust belt selling out to corporate interests on K Street, by winning in the American manufacturing region. Folks whose jobs are threatened by free trade and the EPA seem certain to cross party lines and vote in larger numbers for Trump.
However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that Donald Trump wins. The federal government has made its importance known. There are States, like Virginia, that depend upon a rapidly expanding federal government for revenue. Virginia, Florida, California, New York and Maryland are but a few examples.
My predictions are predicated upon enthusiasm, polling data, early voting and state-dependency on federal dollars. This map is based on an analysis of data, not on the historical analysis of data.
I fear that Florida and Virginia will hand this election to Secretary Hillary Clinton. Unless Donald Trump can win Virginia, Florida or Wisconsin, I do not believe that his appeal to the rust belt will prove victorious. I believe that Trump’s unfavorables with a motivated Hispanic population will deprive him of Florida and Arizona. I believe he will nearly pick up the manufacturing States of Michigan and Pennsylvania. However, the rust belt will not be enough to suppress Hispanic outrage over Trump’s anti-illegal immigrant policies. Wisconsin, which ought to go Trump’s way, could remain blue on the basis of labor-union support. Virginia and Maryland remain blue, due to their fiscal dependency on Washington D.C. excess.
While I know this map is divergent from 538 and Real Clear Politics, I believe that President Obama’s speeches and influence will drive university students in Virginia, Arizona and Florida to push Hillary Clinton over the edge.
By my calculations, the only chance Donald Trump has of winning the White House, is winning Virginia.
I believe that Virginia, not Florida, is now the key to the White House. While we do not boast rust belt identity, Southwest Virginia resembles Tennessee and West Virginia more than it does Northern Virginia. The problem is that Roanoke is packed with liberal transplants and will likely vote for Clinton by a wide margin.
Charlottesville, Virginia will go for Hillary too. Blacksburg, Richmond and Christiansburg will vote for Hillary. Do not be surprised if poor rural areas, comprised of immigrant labor and African Americans vote for Hillary. Norfolk and Virginia Beach will vote for Hillary.
My point is this: you have 48 hours to change the minds of the voting public. You have 48 hours to make sure that Hillary Clinton isn’t the next President of the United States. It has come down to us, Virginia; to decide the next President of the United States. If Virginia goes blue, so too does the nation. If we support Trump, he’ll be the next President of the United States. Any vote but a vote for Trump is a vote against Trump. Whomever wins Virginia will be the next President of the United States of America.
This is our moment. Take it, or leave it.
12 comments
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Another garbage slanted poll. Trump will win in a landslide. None of the polls reflect all the crossover from the Democratic strongholds, that are sick and tired of Washington DC politics and career politicians such as Hillary Clinton. Many people will vote, not for Donald, but against Hillary. That is what is not being measured, because it is always the independent vote that swings the election. Even some of my die hard Democratic friends are not voting for Hillary, because they just don’t like or trust her.
Actually, your argument is exactly why I diverted from most of the commonly accepted maps. However Hillary is up 6pts in Virginia +/- 3. Hispanic early voting is up. likely Hispanic turnout in Florida, Virginia and Arizona are up. So while I think Trump will get some exciting and unexpected victories, I don’t believe it’s enough to reach 270.
Even Nate Silver says Hillary is one state away from losing, http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/304551-nate-silver-clinton-one-state-away-from-losing-electoral
Daybreak Poll – Donald Trump Gets 42.4% of Hispanic Vote
Lol
Article here on TBE by Paul Prados says polls are garbage. Nice to see the editorial consistency on this site
It’s called a difference of opinion. No one here tells other writers what they can or cannot write.
Polls are worse that garbage, just look at the Hillary/Sanders CA primary polls. Just look at the polls at this time 4 years ago.
I think polls can be useful, but you have to read the whole poll. You’ve got to ask questions about what your expectations are for the 3rd party numbers, who’s most motivated to show up to vote? It’s so close in a lot of these states, everyone is guessing. Florida could go red, Michigan and Minnesota could go blue, Pa could go blue. NC could go blue. Clinton would win in a blowout. all these polls are +/- 3 and all these battleground states are +/- 3. No one really has any idea what’s going to happen. We just have reasons for what we guess will happen and not all of us share an agreement of what those reasons are.
Drumpf appears at rally in Michigan with Ted Nugent. That’ll carry Michigan for him, for sure.