UPDATED DELEGATE COUNTS FOR BOTH PARTIES:
Republicans:
Trump 743
Cruz 545
Kasich 143
Democrats:
Clinton 1,776
Sanders 1,118
More details here.
Updated Delegate Counts for Republicans and Democrats
written by Jeanine Martin
April 10, 2016
9 comments
Jeanine Martin
Also known as Lovettsville Lady, I am a Republican activist in the wilds of western Loudoun County.
9 comments
I was reading Cruz was up to 545. Amazing how the gap went from over 260 down to below 200 in just a couple of weeks.
I think that includes pledged delegates that are not bound. Since Rubio dropped out, Cruz has gotten more than Trump.
I won’t deny that. RCP had Trump at 743, Cruz at 545. Still, narrowing the gap by 60 in a couple of weeks is pretty good. Admittedly, the going may be difficult for Cruz in some of the northeastern states that have upcoming primaries.
Agreed. The important thing is keeping Drumpf under about 1180, so he cannot win on the first ballot even with unbound. FiveThirtyEight predicts Trump coming in at 1182 as thinks stand now. I tend to think Cruz will win Indiana, get 20-24 delegates out of NY, and do well in CA. I predict the final bound numbers will be Drumpf 1140, Cruz 950 with Cruz winning the nom on the second ballot.
See what happens in NY. If Cruz gets more than 25 or 30 delegates, Trump’s game really falls apart. I presume it also depends how much of a spoiler role Kasich plays.
Apparently, NY had a change of party registration deadline of October 9, 2015. A lot of people in the Conservative Party (or even Democrats) may be in for a nasty surprise if they want to vote for Trump. It makes me wonder if the pollsters took this into account.
I believe October 9th was the first-time registration deadline and March 15 was the change of registration deadline. The Emerson poll looks like Cruz will get 14-20 delegates out of NY, and that is just fine with me. If Cruz gets 25-30, I will open bottle of wine we have been saving for an occasion.
I was reading it the other way around with the registration deadlines. See http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2016/04/07/new-yorks-voter-registration-law-going-screw-donald-trump/
That 545 includes the results reported last night of CO’s state convention.
Nope… that is just the updated number after Colorado finished their state convention yesterday (Cruz got all 13 at-large delegates).