In recent years Virginia has gone from being a reliably red state to becoming a purple state, to being on the verge of becoming a blue state. Many so called talking heads want to blame this entirely on Northern Virginia, and are fully and 100% convinced that this trend will likely continue, and that we must accept this fact. Virginia is on the verge of becoming a totally “blue state” which will only elect Democrats in statewide races and we conservatives must accept this fact. Daily Kos tells us how happy Virginia Democrats are.
Then please explain to me how in November of 2016 how Hilary Clinton won all 3 Presidential Electors in Vermont, yet on that same, day, Vermont also elected a Republican Governor (Phil Scott) and that Phil Scott won by nearly 9%. And of the 14 counties which comprise Vermont – now Governor Scott won 10 of these counties. In the same year which Hilary Clinton received 60% of the vote.
I have some very bad news for our “learned friends”, but elections are won by more than just good candidates who can clearly articulate a message to the average voter. They are won not by money (Trump proved this in 2016) but by volunteers who work on behalf of good candidates, and by local party leaders who can get information to volunteers on where and how to campaign. The Republican Party has allowed our voter database to atrophy since 2004, the last time we won a Presidential Election. And other than 2009, we have been shut out at the statewide level ever since 2004.
However there is hope in the form of great patriots like Scott Sayre, the current GOP Chairman for the 6th Congressional District. Scott (unlike many of the local party bosses who ran their committees like they were personal fiefdoms for their cronies) has taken the time to build up new and improved voter lists, ones with accurate voter data on them. Scott (and his management team of great Americans like Anne Fitzgerald, Al Tucker, Matt Tederick, Ken Adams, Doc Troxel, Sandy Gates, Steve Kurtz, Nate Boyer, Joe Sonsmith, and more than I can name here) have been meeting with grassroots activists and engaging in new and exciting get out the vote technology which (when used properly) helps local committees get out the vote. We are now compiling accurate voter lists for the first time in anyone’s memory. My Magisterial District was used as a test case by Team Sayre this previous November.
All of the local activists where I live have bought into this philosophy, and each of us has a job to do, we all know what our job is, and we do it to the best of our ability.
The end result? In 2012, Mitt Romney got 58.1% of the vote in the 6th Magisterial District of Shenandoah County. Congressman Bob Goodlatte got 62% against a schlub candidate. In 2016, Donald Trump got 65% of the vote, and Congressman Bob Goodlatte received 70.2% of the vote against a serious challenger. I would like to take credit for this, but all the credit goes to the volunteers and to the lessons that Team Sayre has taught us. Team Sayre has been tireless in teaching the concepts of how to canvass and his motto of “Think Local Win Bigger” to the entire 6th Congressional District. More election data here.
Team Sayre understands the concept of getting the base out to vote. And the best way to ensure ALL of the base comes out to vote is for both the local committees and the candidates to work together in sharing data, something that we as Republicans and Conservatives have not always done. Stephen Kurtz, the former Warren County GOP Chair, has had phenomenal success using the lessons taught by Team Sayre. Imagine what could occur if you took the great work that Warren County (Front Royal) has done and implemented it statewide? Or what we have done in the 6th Magisterial District of Shenandoah County.
All this was the result of learning proper precinct management and Scott’s motto of “Think Local Win Bigger” and making sure that all of the volunteers are TOMM (Trained Organized Motivated Mobilized). A mantra all of us are buying into here. It is this type of positive and forward thinking which will lead us to victories in Virginia for years to come. Does this guarantee us victories in the years to come? No quite frankly it does not. Northern Virginia and the Richmond/Petersburg area are hard nuts to crack. But if each of the localities is given accurate voter lists to canvass, and if we team together and work really hard, and with the right type of candidates – Virginia can once again be a proud member of the Red State Coalition.
A note to all unit GOP chairs – want to win? Make sure that your volunteers are TOMM – Trained Organized, Motivated Mobilized.
John Massoud is a Magisterial District Chair in the Shenandoah County GOP, is the head of the Freedom Caucus of the Shenandoah County GOP, and is a regional field director for Gillespie for Governor.
18 comments
I don’t know if I actually agree that today local political success translates always into wider statewide success, perhaps sometimes but I doubt it’s an actual given. First and foremost local issues tend to be often specifically defined to local situations while statewide campaigns more often cover generally the broad brush, cross sectional issues. I may be wrong about this but I’m doubtful that this is a political fact, a political cliche perhaps but not fact that “all politics are local”. Certainly voter organization and identification is a benefit and can help but is it the key lever to gaining wider demographic success in state and national offices?
Let me really ask the 64 thousand dollar question are “political parties” even the key organizational structures to the securing of state and national office in the 21st century that they more clearly played in the mid 20th century. Let’s just look at major three examples that dominated the past decade of American politics.
First, Barrack Obama arising out of obscurity and successfully securing the presidential nomination for the Democratic Party against their candidate of choice Hillary Clinton in effect by running a shadow support PAC like structure Organizing for America and successfully employing it as well in his second term re-election. President Obama was never firmly attached to any local Democratic Party political base local or otherwise during his entire tenure in elected office and made few bones to hide the fact as regards his relationships with his own parties Congressional members.
Second, Donald Trump, also again arising out of political obscurity much like his predecessor Obama, and elected as the first Republican President since 2009 as the Republican Party fought and obstructed tooth and nail every foot of the primary process even as the very political organization he choose to represent, as did a significant portion of it’s local party infrastructure. Trump ran to election success “around” the RNC and it’s state affiliates with his “Make America Great Again” and much like former President Obama employed both a largely party independent organizing and cash funding model with PAC support to directly address the American voter.
Finally, locally the Republican Party has has significant success for over two decades across the nation in securing local state assemblies and governing bodies but have NEVER been able to consistently turn that into lasting Congressional majorities or even come close to securing the White House until the Democratic sweep of Donald Trump which had little to nothing to do with any actual Republican Party leverage as stated in my second point above.
So are better trained local volunteers, more effective local unit and district leadership the magic pill to immediate state and national electoral success for the Republican or for that matter Democratic Parties? My political instincts and observations say NO. The problems lie much deeper with the nature of today’s party itself regarding both how it is organized and how it views it’s relationship and it’s self defined role with it voting base. Finally and just as critical is both parties seeming inabilities to present fresh, new views with secured commitments presented by new faces to the American voter instead of the endless repetition of professional party apparatchik retreads thrust forth election cycle after election cycle and promptly rejected by the voter who seem to be going around the parties to make their choices. What appears to be left in the end for these party organizations unwilling to reassess and modernize are just tired and old marketing labels repeated by the same faces election cycle after cycle. A better ground game isn’t going to solve that problem.
Establishment Republicans, including many in or seeking elected office, do not want the grassroots organized to the extent “Think Local, Win Bigger” requires. They will fight this tooth and nail because they know this is a direct assault on their hedgemony and cronyism inherent in being an incumbent. They want the grassroots to work on their campaigns, write checks when requested, and vote for them when the time comes. Otherwise go back to sleep after the election and we will wake you up in time for the next election. RPV is a weak Political Party; kept that way intentionally.
See my article in the Bull Elephant about why the Republican Party in Virginia is lazy. Until the grassroots take hold of their local government (Think Local) and begin to win those offices closest to us, we can not win those statewide offices from President, Senate, Governor, Lt. Gov. and Attorney General (WIn Bigger).
Has to start somewhere. We started the movement in the 6th Congressional District. Time for the movement of the grass roots to expand all across Virginia
John, regardless of how your word it. The Republican Party of Virginia is still run by the elitist factor. Until we change the chairman, who frankly should resign, and some of the same old tired leaders we will remain a blueish state. The further we are removed from Richmond, the worse it gets in the southwestern region. We have about 30% of the land mass of Virginia but only 13% of the population and as such are not listened to as really we are not a factor.
As if he’d allow it!
The Chairman has worked hard to help Republicans get elected in Virginia. Not quite sure where all this paranoia about the chairman comes from.
And thus you have identified the problem of why we are a blueish state
If you want to identify the faction that’s the problem as far as elitism, look at the VCN and their hangers-on.
–> In recent years Virginia has gone from
being a reliably red state to becoming a purple state, to being on the
verge of becoming a blue state.
Two Dem* Senators, a Dem Guv, LG & AG. Not verge, we are a blue state.
(* Pronounced “damn”)
I wish conservatives were more concerned with promoting their values than simply winning elections. Winning without principles is no victory. I’d rather not see the ruler of our fiefdom in the 6th district win with greater margins until we find someone who shares our values.
Scott Sayre and Team Sayre share our values. That’s why Scott took over the committee from the Establishment hacks who ran the party into the ground.
I’m proud to be a small contributor to Team Sayre.
Sounds like you’re tired of winning.
If we weren’t concerned about winning, we’d be Libertarians or Tea Party Amalgamated Confederation of Interested Thinkers.
Having principles is pointless if you don’t get anyone elected. Ask the LP.
Getting someone elected without principles is also worthless.
Get out the vote and voter lists is absurd. Mandatory voting similar to Australia is to be advocated for.
Yes, and if there is only one candidate you will vote for that candidate… or else.
The last time I heard that “we should be like Australia” and force everyone to vote, it was from a disgruntled Dem. made because her candidate didn’t win. I do not even think it would be constitutional. And How would it be enforced? We citizens have the right to vote, but we also have the right to be left alone.
You really want some bureaucrat telling you to vote or else you’ll be fined or go to jail? Gotta say, that’s more than a bit scary.