What we learned from Virginia’s Primaries

written by Jeanine Martin June 16, 2017

First, we have learned, once again, that polls are inaccurate. The most recent polls in Virginia showed Ed Gillespie beating Corey Stewart handily, often by more than 20 points, with about 30% undecided. The reality was Gillespie won by a mere 1.57%. On the Democrat side, all the polls showed Tom Perriello and Ralph Northam running neck and neck, within a few points of each other. Ralph Northam won by 11.82% of the vote.

Northam’s big win tells us outside endorsements, like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, don’t impress Virginia Democrat voters. Northam’s support from Virginia Democrats mattered more. He was supported by Governor McAuliffe and every Democrat elected official in Richmond.

Corey Stewart’s constant criticism of Ed Gillespie worked. Stewart claimed on radio and television Gillespie supports late term abortions. Nothing could be further from the truth. Gillespie was endorsed by national pro-life groups. He has always been pro-life but voters wouldn’t know that because Gillespie never responded to Corey’s bombardment of lies about him. Stewart is still claiming Gillespie wants to tear down Confederate monuments. That’s not true either, the Governor has no ability to do that. It’s a state law that monuments to veterans cannot be torn down, including veterans of the Civil War. Gillespie never refuted Stewart’s accusations. Gillespie ended the race with $2 million in campaign funds. He should have spent that money refuting Stewart. He would be in a better position now for November.

Strangely, Northam did well in the more liberal areas of the state, NOVA to Tidewater, and the more liberal Perriello did better in the rural areas which are traditionally the more conservative parts of the state. Maps from WTOP.com

Republican votes were about as we would expect, the more moderate Gillespie did better in NOVA and other populated parts of the state while Corey Stewart did better in more rural areas:

More maps here and here.

Another factor in the primary races was money. Gillespie spent over $2 million, Stewart $803,611, and Wagner $585,179. On the Democrat side, Northam spent over $5 million and Perriello spent over $3 million.

Democrats know how to get out the vote and they are fired up. Trump is playing a big part in their enthusiasm. Their turnout this year was 170% over their last primary. This year 532,433 Democrats voted compared to 315,747 Republicans. Low Republican turnout helped Stewart, making it such a close election. Republicans need to fire up their base, recruit new members to the party, and get out the vote, for their party to have a hope of winning in November. See more on turnout and its effects here.

Finally, Democrats seem to be uniting with little muss or fuss. Republicans, not so much. Fortunately, Ed Gillespie is just the man to bring everyone together. On to November!

Jeanine Martin

Also known as Lovettsville Lady, I am a Republican activist in the wilds of western Loudoun County.

BIGron

Was not overly excited by any of the GOP candidates, but all would have been better than those from the dark side. As the winner of the primary, I will fully support Ed.
- Joseph
  
  On the flip side, the Democrats were only enthused about their main gubernatorial candidates. Talked with a number of Dems on election day, they were stunned they even had LG candidates. Kept hearing “Who’re those people? Didn’t they advertise or anything?”
  - kelley
    
    they will pull the lever for Mr. Fairfax. & they will come out strong for Dr. Northam.
  - Troublemaker
    
    I worked at the polls and many Dems asked me whether they had to vote for the LG office, also.
  - Jeanine Martin
    
    A woman at my poll said she and her husband came only to vote for Ralph Northam for Lt. Governor. “We don’t know anything about those other people”.
- Chad Davis
  
  I totally agree with Ron. I didn’t vote for Gillespie or Vogel in the primary, but I will vote for them (and Adams) in November.
John Massoud

Corey Stewart’s concession on Facebook was perfect pitch. Time to move on. Ed Gillespie for Governor
- Jeanine Martin
  
  Too bad he hasn’t spoken with Ed. That’s how it’s supposed to work. The loser calls the winner and concedes.
  - John Massoud
    
    Hope to see you in Leesburg later today. I’m thinking they’ll talk soon enough. Corey needs Ed and his supporters as much as Ed needs Corey’s supporters.
    - Jim Portugul
      
      Right, I vote for Corey, and I don’t need Ed.
      - John Massoud
        
        Well sadly for you, you’ll need Ed supporters when Corey runs again in 2018. So you might want to rethink burning all your bridges and your rather inane rhetoric – as it will come back to bite you in the 000 sooner than you think.
      - Jim Portugul
        
        That limp, threading not to support Stewart in 18′.
        
        What did Ed or Republicans give Denver to step aside$$$&$$$
      - John Massoud
        
        Do you know how to read the English language? Read what was said and not what you may have wanted it to say. FYI, I’ve already reached out to Corey Stewart offering my help in the future. What I did say was that your sociopathic need to fight with everyone won’t help Corey in the future.
      - Jim Portugul
        
        Basically 99% of my fight all comes down to Wall St. (establishment) and special interest money in politics.
        
        It may seem as if my fight is with everyone, but that is because Wall St. money is everywhere.
        
        Ed Gillespie just used lies that he was only able to sell to the masses via having establishment cash.
        
        The establishment has obtained this cash from slave labor. To a large degree illegal immigrant slave labor. That, coupled to Communist Chinese slave labor.
        
        Politicians cannot move without being shadowed by checkbook carrying lobbyists. You go to your congressmans office, it is loaded with lobbyists. Just look at the shooting on Tuesday to see how close lobbyists are. In 2008 I had a meeting with my congressman. As I was going into his office lobbyists were coming out, as I was going out of his office, lobbyists were coming in. It’s ridiculous.
      - David Jackson
        
        That will not happen until the party addresses the split in the party. Any time the issue is brought up with an establishment Republican, they put their head in the sand. I don’t think they have an inkling of why there is this devide. Do you?
      - John Massoud
        
        Great point, and as the head of the Tea Party in Shenandoah County (also a GOP District Chair), I can explain it to you quite easily. We’ve been too nice to the Establishment for far too long, and they are quite frankly at times hateful and despicable human beings.
        
        In Shenandoah County, the GOP treats the party not as a political party to get candidates elected, but as a social club where they can hang out and waste time. So when activists like myself and my friends want to do things to increase our voter turnout, we are thwarted in every direction. For example, we want to use a voter app. But the local committee has been trying to stop that for months now – and so far doing one heck of a good job. They do so – and in doing so hurt their own members – but they’re so hate filled they could care less.
        
        For all of our talk about how nasty some liberals can be (and I’ll grant you they’re nasty at times) the nastier people by far are quite often “establishment Republicans” towards the conservative base. I’d rather deal with a liberal Democrat than a true establishment Republican any day of the week. Some of the things they say to me way beyond cross the line. (aka one establishment Republican saying to me that all gun owners should be taken out and shot – another said publicly about the previous head of the local Tea Party – they “were glad this person dropped dead and hoped they burn in hell”.
        
        These are hateful people. And they need to be suppressed.
    - David Jackson
      
      Corey doesn’t need Ed. He is out. Ed needs more than just Corey he needs a passionate message that resonates with the base. So far it ain’t there.
  - Jim Portugul
    
    Right on! Ed should call Ralph and concede.
    - David Jackson
      
      That is funny and unless ole Ed changes his style and message he had better have his consession speech ready.
    - Chad Davis
      
      It’s over four months until the election. The Democrats had more primary enthusiasm in June, but a lot can change between now and November.
ameri…canwork

I hope that you learned there were more Stewart supporters than you expected or you learned there were LESS Gillespie supporters than you expected. Half full? or Half empty.
I day he is “half empty”.
Sorry guys and gals, I fully plan to
cast mine to ;
Adams for AG
Vogel for Lt. Governor
the kicker is Northam for Governor
No lies here Gillespie has absolutely NO knowledge of Va. Employment or Va. Contractor laws and he has not addressed McAuliffes Executive Order 24.
What would Ed ‘ s Executive experience bring on this issue?
1) list his procedure ____________?
2) his policy to back it up___________?
3)the laws that allow his policy decision_____________?
Any Republican running for Governor after Trump better have their act together on illegal immigration
Oh yea Trump lied , now the DACA children are near and dear to his heart.
Will Ed exploit Trumps’ adopted?
Ed double talks of States rights.
The Va Employment Compensation Act and Statute 54.1-1100 .
Hey Ed Va. did exercise her right by making these laws.
If you want the working an to turn out you had better WORK on some policy.
Ed is NOT A MODERATE or he would speak of EO24.
I will try best to see that moderators at debates will have my questions.
Sorry Ed , I do my job well.
John Massoud

Our main concern needs to be getting our own base to turn out in November. Dem turnout in Strasburg, where I live, was much higher than imagined. I was telling Team Gillespie that it would be in excess of 100 voters (maybe 150 tops). But they had about 224 voters, we had 275. If we don’t step our efforts up, then we have Governor Northam and $15 per hour minimum wages and the beginning of the end of the right to work state. This is serious.

For a comparison, in 2013, when the Dems had a Lt. Governor primary and Delegate Todd Gilbert was being primaried by a lunatic – Strasburg had about 226 voters in the GOP primary, and the Democratic Lt. Governor primary had 44 voters.

This must not occur in November or else we’re screwed. Strasburg is just one Magisterial District, but it’s indicative of what occurred statewide on Tuesday.
- Mies Rohe
  
  The base? Focus on the base? The base is nowhere near enough votes to compete. Grow or die. Virginia is now a Blue state and that will not change until Virginia Republicans grow way beyond their base, requiring fundamental change.
- ameri…canwork
  
  I don’t think we need a wage increase at all.
  But you will get it with Northam.
  And the beginning of ending the right to work state started with Governor McDonnell and Attorney Ken Cuccinelli by not enforcing The Employment Compensation Act properly and allowing the flood of ILLEGAL ALIENS into Va’s Legal Workforce to exploit the equity out of LEGAL EMPLOYEES.
  Sounds like income redistribution at the expense of Va.
  I pay more than 15.00 an hour so no skin off back.
  - AmyH
    
    Northam cannot implement a wage increase without the acquiescence of the GA.
    - ameri…canwork
      
      I know Northam can’t increase the wage being we have a R majority.
      Kind of lame that the same R majority in our General Assembly won’t bring forth legislation to end illegal employment (JLARC 427, unlicensed contracting ).
      And some here believe Ed is a moderate or that he will move to middle.
      He will not discuss current moderate Executive Order 24.
      Where is the middle then ?
      Tax increase?
      3 bathrooms?
      Pro choice?
      Where is his “middle”?
      Oh the act of love , illegal immigration. If Republicans truly feel this way , why do the allow their exploitation?
      Just what really is Ed?
      Who really is Ed?
      Poster child Corporatism ?
David Jackson

Gillespie has zero chance to win the General unless he can bring the constitutional conservatives on board. All Republicans want to carry a conservative banner that has no meaning. The time is not the nineties,
people are tired of the establishment and all their trickery. Gillespie will try to win some Democrats. That is a losing strategy. With the heavy Democrat populace Ed will have to be passionate about conservative ideology. He also needs to get closer to the people. He likes to kiss the baby and move to the next. He feels uncomfortable talking and listening to constituents. The Democrats are much more skilled communicating with the people. That also says a lot about the Republicans. Keep it all and keep it small. No matter what, it’s going to be a difficult race for the Republicans.
I would like to see Gillespie put forth a contract with the people that he will sign. It might help him to watch Dave Brat.
- AmyH
  
  Gillespie wouldn’t recognize a conservative ideal if it walked up and bit him.
- JoeVMan
  
  Of course Establishment Ed feels uncomfortable talking and listening to constituents. It’s because he’s a RINO who doesn’t even have the guts to support Trump or do anything legitimately conservative like Corey would if he won.
Mies Rohe

The next to last paragraph contains an error that should be corrected:

The offending sentence: “This year 532,433 Democrats voted compared to 315,747 Republicans.”

In fact, 365,708 Republican ballots were cast, sixteen percent / 49,961 more than TBE reported. (Gillespie = 159,982, Stewart = 155,434, Wagner = 50,292)

How big is this 16% error? For reference, Stewart’s votes constituted 17 percent of *all* ballots cast by both parties.

Democrats cast 543,793 ballots, two percent more than TBE reported.

Fact checking:

http://www.elections.virginia.gov/resultsreports/election-results/2017-election-results/index.html
Chris B

I’m not surprised that Ralph did better in NOVA. NOVA is a company town and while Democratic it is hardly a hotbed of fire and brimstone progressivism. Once the WaPo endorsed Northam it was all over.

What we learned from Virginia’s Primaries

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