The famous Prussian general and military theorist Carl Von Clausewitz stated in his seminal work “On War†stated, “War is the continuation of politics by other means.†Aside from our internal and external weakness and timidity as a nation which precipitated the current standoff with Russia, what exactly are the political goals that Vladimir Putin wants to achieve by invading Ukraine? What are the issues at stake that would cause him to commit his forces to potentially the largest invasion since the end of World War II?
I also doubt that if a large-scale conflict does occur between the United States and Russia, Americans will be prepared to face the most certain cyber-attacks that will target the key nodes of our infrastructure. I suspect many Americans would have a meltdown if they were unable to access Facebook or watch their favorite TicTok Videos!
I have not seen or heard much about the political issues at stake – other than that Putin views the fall of the Soviet Union as a huge disaster and wants at some point to restore its former glory. But he is also angry (and rightly so I would agree) with the expansion of NATO into former Soviet bloc countries – a move designed to rub his nose into the collapse. So when Ukraine started making advances about joining NATO, I believe that in his mind, the move was the last straw- it would be akin to Canada or Mexico joining the Warsaw Pact if it still existed. I do not believe we as a nation would have stood for that.
It would have been easy, and still is easy for us to say to diffuse the ongoing confrontation. Just say “Putin you are right – Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO.†Let’s quit poking the bear and let him have his “victory.†Let us take the long view that in the end will prove more beneficial to the United States and the cause of freedom. Putin will eventually be gone and hopefully then we can deal with a new and maybe more enlightened leader – but in the meantime the west can still bolster democratic institutions inside Ukraine.
When this occurs maybe then the Russian people will see the possibilities once they have a close neighbor thriving with a democratic government and free market economy. That’s how the free world “wins†ultimately. One only has to look no further than the disparity between South Korea vs North Korea to see sometimes “it is easier to catch more flies with honey than vinegarâ€. Let’s hope cool heads eventually prevail and we do not stumble into a confrontation where no one “wins.†History taught us that although the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand was a relatively isolated event, the second and third order effects quickly spiraled Europe and eventually the entire world into a conflict no one had envisioned.
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Mr Poplar… Michael Every from Rabobank says the following which makes a good point concerning where we are in the global power games of the West and its opponents:
The West has rich digital economies based on the ‘output’ of on-line influencers, pet therapists, yoga and Pilates classes, mobile gaming, YouTubers, lifestyle planning, Marie Kondo helping people get rid of their too-much-stuff, asset bubbles –and selling tranches of said bubbles to each other– all book-ended by endless central-bank liquidity. It’s a society where the middle-class lives in a comfortable bubble, never wondering where things like food and electricity, or physical goods, actually come from. Yet for now they still control the ‘rules of the game’, such as finance; hold the commanding heights of technology, despite terrible education systems and not paying engineers or scientists a decent wage; and collectively still have the world’s largest military – albeit very unevenly distributed and fading in relative power terms where it matters most.
The ‘revisionist’ powers like Russia are much poorer, more physical economies driven by raw materials (energy, metals, agri commodities), or, in China’s case, taking those materials and transforming them into too many goods – in short, controlling industrial supply chains. Yes, there are also pointless asset bubbles book-ended by endless central-bank liquidity; but parts also run like a 19th century gold standard (i.e., fiscal prudence, mercantilism, and militarism). It’s a tough, ultra-competitive society. Their collective financial power is rising, aided by the West; their technology is improving, aided by the West; and their military power is rising, aided by the West.”
While we are obsessed with BLM, LGBTQWTF, Opening our border… racism racism racism… etc… your opponents are tough people who are not running their societies on bullshit Affirmative Action Crap. It is soft… weak… stupid..
Good luck kids in the future!
Joker, Concur — well said!
I don’t know if you heard this but MSNBC is blabbering on about the US deploying cyber attacks in retaliation for the Ukraine action… Now the MSM is a mouthpiece for the government. So…. you are stupid enough to telegraph this? Not that the Russian wouldn’t figure it out in two seconds…. but let’s get to the reality of the abject stupidity that would be such an action.
Yes you may hurt Russia… they in turn will unleash hell on this stupid country that is now wholly dependent upon cyber this and that and the clouds and the internet etc etc… They will bring this country to its f..ing knees. No banking… electric grids… food supplies… all screwed up beyond repair.
Russia is hardened you are not…
Well maybe that is just talk by the trusted source of news by the lefties who live here… but just don’t do it!
I suspect Putin would perceive a cyber-attack as an act of war. Hearing more talk about the “off ramp” in my original post, e.g., not offering Ukraine NATO membership. Time will tell …regardless this will not end well.
Well Mr Poplar… what do you make of the events now? Putin is pretty smart… an IQ that dwarfs our current Resident, even when his brain was half functional. do you suppose Putin has figured that the US is so weak that now was the time to move on to secure his border from the usual CIA games that we have been playing there under the guidance of the great neocons that gave us Afghanistan… Syria Iraq… Libya… I guess the strategic alliance he is forming with Bubba Clinton’s favorite country… China has emboldened him.
I am afraid that Putin realizes the larger strategic game is afoot and ripe for the taking… I don’t think the usual suspects realize what the possibilities are for the day when the petro dollar are over… The US cannot afford its welfare state and that is the day that the shitshow gets to its final act… We may be seeing that day now as China and Russia join. The Saudis are not your friend people….
I guess in summation… is this action part of a larger strategic game? And what are your thoughts on how that plays out.
Joker, I actually agree with you 100 % If Putin succeeds in Ukraine and it appears NATO does not have the stomach for an armed conflict he will move into Estonia and then Baltic states meanwhile we dither over “social Justice” and climate change. This A.M.: ” John Kerry fears Russia-Ukraine war will distract from climate change Biden’s climate czar said, ‘massive emissions’ will negatively impact the globe. ”
The PRC will soon after the Olympics move on Taiwan. In the end, I suspect we will look the other way and express “grave concern†while the PRC takes over Taiwan and goes on to dominate the pacific rim and eventually surpass the United States. Meanwhile our myopic national leadership will remain focused on domestic issues “threating our democracy.†Very sad…
“But he is also angry (and rightly so I would agree) with the expansion of NATO into former Soviet bloc countriesâ€
So you do not support the concept of self-determination… unsurprising…
I think Clausewitz would say – look north young man.
“But he is also angry (and rightly so I would agree) with the expansion of NATO into former Soviet bloc countries – a move designed to rub his nose into the collapse. ” A move designed to make the world a safer place.
I think that is the most anti-Ameerican post I have ever read on here. You must be a big anti-American tucker fan. Not cool, not cool at all
WOW i guess i struck a nerve, was beginning to think no one ever read my posts so thought i would try the Socratic method by offering another if unpopular perspective. Suspect i will not be doing that again!
Unfortunately, Putin will not stop at Ukraine. In fact, his current demands are well beyond that. There is a large Russian-speaking population in Estonia. This war, if Putin launches it, is going to be a disaster on many levels. Thousands will die. Putin will be a war criminal.
“There is no security or safety in the appeasement of evil†Ronald Reagan
This war, if Putin launches it, is going to be a disaster on many levels. Thousands will die. Putin will be a war criminal.
You have to realize that Martin is by far the most anti-American poster here. So when he says what you wrote is anti-American he, in his own way, is lauding you.
Aye Got it — thank you Sir !
gfy
John, no need to be nasty – it is O.K. to simply agree to disagree – that is what our founders fought for almost two hundred and fifty years ago. Have a GREAT week !
tens of thousands will die. Thank God it is Biden in charge and not the putinasskissing trump
Ha ha ha LOL you are an asswipe! Biden… funny! Biden in charge! When he’s not crapping his pants or wandering off, or claiming he was a trucker.. or making incoherent speeches… The Thing… you know come on man. Biden is not in charge of anything but eating ice cream shit for brains… Let us see… who was it who said the following?
“Never underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up”?
That would be your blessed Obama..
I don’t think NATO should go to war over Ukraine necessarily, either, but this reeks of double dealing and cowardice nonetheless. The hammer and sickle may be gone, but make no mistake – this current generation of Russian leadership is the same gang of thugs under a different flag.
The moral of the Ukraine story is that if you have nuclear weapons and give them up, then you are an idiot.
Yes, and do not expect North Korea or Iran will ever give up theirs!
Robert, please see
https://thebullelephant.com/a-tale-of-two-presidents/
Robert, roger all — just an alternative point of view to spur discussion that perhaps should be considered. BTW the Budapest Agreement was not a formal treaty. The United States, at a minimum, has an obligation under the UN charter to oppose one state conquering another by force. Bottom line — I don’t think NATO should go to war with Russia over Ukraine. Thank you for your input.
Ridiculous, nauseating cowardice and abandonment of things America has claimed to stand for, including treaties we signed guaranteeing Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. Do the meathead populist have such a fever grip on the right that we basically throw away Reagan’s good work and let the Russians have their captive nations back?
Pathetic.
Western Europe is a basket case having imported millions of anti-Western Civilization people from the mid-east and north Africa. They have also abandoned NATO for all practical purposes and that is why Trump demanded that the pay their fair share of their own defense. Further, they have stupidly made themselves energy dependent on Russia. I predict lots of angry Western words thrown about as well as various military movements signifying nothing but posturing. There might even be a very minor skirmish just to show strength. All is simply for show, and six month from now it will be business as usual in Europe. Meanwhile, the real threat is Canada which is now ruled by global fascists.
it is not just for show. Canada……..lol……..gawd, how small minded of you. Trucker morons are gonna regret it if they try to shut down the DC beltway
A group of ten ANTIFA or BLM thugs could shut down the beltway. The truck convoy is overkill