You’ve probably heard this, Trump isn’t doing well in the polls because many of his supporters are afraid, or too shy, or too embarrassed to admit they support Trump. These shy, hidden, voters are going to come out strong for Trump on election day and pull him over the finish line. The polls are wrong. (Didn’t we say that in 2012?)
It’s difficult to believe that Trump supporters are shy. We saw no evidence of that during the primaries or at the convention. They were the opposite of shy. They were big, brash, and in your face. Are these really the type of people who are in the closet for Trump? And won’t tell pollsters they are supporting Trump?
In September, before Kellyanne Conway became Trump’s campaign manager, she spoke of these hidden Trump supporters on the Today Show:
“I think that the important point to note there is that when you have online polls as opposed to telephone polls, Mr. Trump tends to do better, and that’s because the online polls approximate the ballot box, where you’re issuing your vote privately,” Conway said. “We think there’s a big hidden Trump vote in this country.
However, the FinancialTimes.com is reporting there is no evidence of these hidden voters:
Pollsters have looked far and wide and deep into their methodology and they say they have struggled to unearth evidence of the shy Trump voter theory advocated among others by Kellyanne Conway, Mr Trump’s campaign manager.
Polls were accurate during the primaries and Douglas Schwartz, director of the respected Quinnipiac University Poll, believes they still are:
On balance, polls had been accurate in the primaries in gauging support for Mr Trump, he said. “My thinking is if it didn’t show up in the primaries it’s not going to show up in the general,” Mr Schwartz said. “The Trump voters don’t seem shy. At the rallies they don’t seem afraid to say how they feel.”
Another variable is, as always, who turns out. Will Hispanics go to the polls and what percentage will vote for Trump? Will uneducated white men turn out in large numbers for Trump? Will Blacks get to the polls and give Hillary over 90% as they did for Obama?
Looking at the RealClearPolitics.com average of all the polls Hillary is up by 3.8 %. She has been up over Trump in the average since July. It’s difficult to believe that there is a wide swath of Trump voters who haven’t come out of the closet, but anything is possible in politics.
