Next year only ten states will matter in deciding the outcome of Presidential Election. Virginia is among them. The other nine are  Wisconsin, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Colorado. [read_more]Those ten states are the most likely to switch between the parties when voting for President. In 2012 those 10 had the closest percentages of votes between the two candidates. Of those ten, only North Carolina voted for Romney. According to Roll Call, the other 40 states that don’t make the Big Ten will matter much less in the Presidential Election.  They lean too far toward one party or the other for their votes to matter in 2016.
Certainly, not all of the Big Ten states are equally competitive. But if you are putting together a list of the states that are competitive and could switch from one party to the other depending on the nominees and the political environment, all of the Big Ten states merit inclusion.
Of the 10 states, three — North Carolina, Florida and Ohio — were the tightest in 2012, with Virginia also very competitive but not quite as close.
Realistically then, Republicans must nominate someone who has the potential to carry North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and at least a couple of other states on the list — probably Virginia and Colorado.
Nate Silver has written an interesting piece on the disadvantage Republicans face in the Electoral College. He includes this chart showing how Obama got the 272 Electoral College votes he needed to win the Presidency. Â The chart makes it easy to see which states are in the middle and could change their allegiances in 2016.
The Bull Elephant has recently published two articles on HOW we will nominate our choice of a candidate in 2016, here and here.  Because of the importance of the role that Virginia will play in next year’s Presidential Election, it is vitally important WHO we nominate. We need a candidate that those ten swing states can get behind. Before his recent conviction, former Governor Bob McDonnell might have been the perfect candidate for President or Vice President in 2016 because he could have helped carry Virginia and North Carolina for Republicans. Now he may be in jail during next year’s election and his conviction precludes him from even voting for President.  Ah, “the saddest words of tongue or pen, what might have been”.
30 comments
Something about polling for voter strategies makes me profoundly uncomfortable, as does the implied conjecture that Republican’s should nominate a composite designed candidate whose positions has the – “potential to carry North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and at least a couple of other states on the list — probably Virginia and Colorado”. The implication one can read into this is that elections don’t need to be about IDEAS any more but just mapping the correct set of transient positions to a projected analytical model of the 272 Electoral College votes. As for the rest of us, well “we” (the masters of the universe) know your trend lines so vote or stay home it’s not going to effect our model’s outcomes. As someone who has the background skills to understand the statistical significance and mathematical underpinnings of these forecasting models I can assure you that the great Nate Silver and his NYT mentors can easily be transformed from prediction geniuses to outright losers by one simple across the board sampling adjustment to margin of error calculations in his models. These predictive models are tools that can be used to inform voters or potentially manipulate them to give very false impressions (a recent example being polling from Ed Gillespie’s Senate race). I hope the “WHO” Republicans in Virginia support will focus on ideas and their application to worker and middle class economic struggles and NOT on the futile search for the mythical perfect position candidate, who doesn’t exist except in a manufactured context.
Don’t be surprised if a state that isn’t on anyone’s political radar becomes The State that changed an election. The key could very well be migration numbers and their party identity. For instance, some states have heavy domestic outflows combined with heavy foreign born inflows. Who are these people and why are they moving? What are state parties doing about this dynamic?
And it doesn’t necessarily have to be a whole state, but a critical region. For example, Virginia Beach. Data for 2010-2013 is from Governing.com.
International Migration 5,703
Domestic Migration -6,248
While the city population increased by 2.4% because of increased births over deaths, the raw numbers above show an under the radar migration out of the city. The question for future elections is party identification. If foreign born vote Democratic and Republicans are moving out, I would suggest someone should start paying attention.
Even without the legal problems, Bob McDonnell a Conservative?
A Conservative who signed the largest tax increase in Virginia history? A Conservative with perhaps, the most over the top, outrageous budgets, of all time? Plus much, much, more!
You just cannot be serious? Because of liberals like McDonnell, I will probably vote Democrat in 2016?
Who really wrote this article?
Bob McDonnell was once a strong conservative.
And, I guess, so were many others.
If McDonnell was really on the fast track of advanced Republicanism, Mitt would have picked him for VP.
Simply put, in my opinion, McDonnell did not have the intelligence required to do that job. The Ferrari and Rolex, etc., seem to indicate that.
It would be very interesting to know how far into people private lives that you believe Conservative government should go.
I believe that government should stay the hell out of people’s personal lives.
One cannot legislate righteousness, sorry to disappoint.
Dude, since when are politicians intelligent? And just look at the corps of vice presidents…Biden, Cheney (book smart only), Gore, Quayle, H.W., Mondale, Ford?
You are always such a cheery soul, so very much like a crabby democrat.
Lol, he reflects on the lack of intelligence of others but apparently believes “Dude” is a pronoun. The wonders of the modern education system.
I’m writing on a blog on the Internet, where colloquialisms are more than acceptable. And need I reciprocate your pedantic logic and point out you began your response with “Lol” and failed to use capital letters, as it’s an acronym?
I gracefully stand corrected by a troll, pseudonym and all.
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with pointing out it doesn’t take brains to be a state governor. Rick Perry? George Bush? Arnold Schwarzenegger? Deval Patrick?
These people that you mention, if you think they are not intelligent, is it you that is lacking?
Just where is your career at?
Could you please define just what your definition of “brains” is?
The Republicans need to get out their base. They have been staying at home because RINOs get pushed instead of real Republicans. They will vote for Republicans with principles. It’s just that simple. They are out there in VA in monumental numbers. Give them something to vote for.
Here! Here!
E.W. Jackson says “What?”
There’s that blue shirt again! When fo you put Bush on the front of it?
Quiet, you. Adults are talking.
if this is true–& I have no data to prove or disprove–why didn’t Republicans sweep the last gubernatorial election?
What are real Republicans?
We need republicans to step up and join us conservatives.
This is what happens when the Left imports tens of millions of third world voters, gets them all sorts of bennies, and subsidizes their dysfunctional behavior while the GOP “leaders” say not a word, other than calling conservatives “racists” and “haters” for speaking out against this deliberate destruction of the Republic.
Let’s start with what is axiomatic: (a) the illegal immigrants in this country are not returning (forcibly or voluntarily) to their countries of origin; (b) illegal immigration into this country may decrease, but it will never cease; (c) illegal immigrants will continue being incorporated into this country’s cultural fabric; and (d) illegal immigrants in this country (just like the blacks) will find all sorts of social programs (even if they are underfunded, rolled back, or discontinued) to thrive. Without abandonment of our democracy, there is nothing that can be done about this.
Conservatives have three choices: (a) blame the Democrats, which you have done above; (b) blame the moderate conservatives, which you have also done above; or (c) figure out a way to cherry pick this population. I am terribly sorry to inform you of this.
Here is what is really axiomatic, Savoia. (a) Illegal immigrants and immigrants from the third world cost a lot of money as the majority of immigrant households have at least one member receiving some sort of welfare. This is not the Ellis Island Generation whose members had to sink or swim and rely on their own communities for support. (b) Money to support illegal and third world legal immigration will not continue to last forever. The nation is broke due to defense overspending and an expansive welfare state. (c) Middle and upper middle class taxpayers grow irate as they see their neighborhood schools overwhelmed and overburdened and their taxes used to subsidize dysfunctional behavior by immigrants and the welfare class. I hate to inform you of this, but the gravy train will come to a screeching halt soon.
But the gist of your remark was about the political class, not the demographic/social issue at hand. So what exactly are you going to do about it other than complain about Republican moderates or Democrats? And what solution do you have for the problem, in light of the axioms I have furnished?
Savoia – for starters I would support legislation denying welfare benefits to any immigrant for at least five years. But that is not a practical solution because the GOP does not have the fortitude and courage to even suggest it. But I do know that we have reached the point about which the wise Founders warned us. There are too many people on the dole, especially immigrants from the Caribbean, Mexico, and Central America who have the vote and the power to extract money from the producers. That is a sure way to tear our Republic asunder. And while I have no idea how to solve this problem, I do know with absolutely no doubt in my semi-Semitic cerebrum that the compound on the interest on the national debt will destroy our fiscal solvency, and with it all faith in the federal government.
Just curious what is your feeling regarding the national debt, and section 1, article 8, claus 5 of the US Constitution?
How does one go bankrupt with that in mind?
Also, please keep in mind that It seems many leading economist’s are surprised that remains inflation low, and the dollar is high?????? Seems no matter how disfunctional we are!
Because most of the world debt money isn’t flowing to the greater world economy? It’s being fire walled to keep circulation within the central banking system instead of to the public.
No answer from Mark, no surprise there. Stunned no doubt!
How can one run out of money when the Constitution gives “them” the sole right to create, or coin their money, as they see fit.
Is it one giant, fear mongering, con job?
I am not saying I agree with it, however, it is what it is.
It is impossible under our current Constitution for the USA to write a bad check.
But, Republican’s and Corporate America, they want to rewrite the Constitution, now don’t they? Cut the poor and middle-class out!
Sorry, Reinhardt. I missed your question and remark. But your thinly veiled insult is spot on. I am a fear-mongering nincompoop. I forgot that the dollar is the world’s reserve currency so we can simply print more money and more money, and it will continue to retain its value. In fact, the more money we print, the better. Inflation will not be a problem as we monetize our debt. Investors will continue to buy our T-bills and everything will turn out swell. Nothing to worry about. We can become a third world nation, in which the majority of our immigrant households are on some form of welfare, and we can be staring at a debt of over $25 trillion in about ten years, with pensions and Medicare and Social Security of the Baby Boom Generation to contend with. Kein Problem, Reihardt. Alles ist in Ordnung.
Why borrow money? The Constitution says the government can make as much as they want. It is what it is.