Vice Presidential candidates rarely help a Presidential ticket to carry his home state, according to a book by Kyle C. Kopko and Christopher J. Devine. They have studied Vice Presidential candidates from 1960 until now and they find that Vice Presidential nominees rarely make a difference in carrying their home states for their Presidential ticket.
There have been times when a Vice President has delivered his home state but there are many conditions attached. The candidate must come from a small state where he is very well known, and have held numerous elected positions, such as Mayor, Governor, Senator. Tim Kaine has the elected offices covered but he’s not from a small state. It works for people like Joe Biden who is from a tiny state where everyone knows him.
According to the data collected by Kopko and Devine, Virginia is too large a state with too much diversity for Kaine’s nomination to make much difference.
Vice Presidential nominee Mike Pence is not likely to make much difference in his home state because Indiana is a red state and likely to stay that way in this election.
Home state advantage is very different for the top of the ticket. Presidential candidates have a 3% to 7% advantage in their home state. It’s hard to think of any scenario where Hillary doesn’t win New York.
The religion of a nominee for Vice President also doesn’t make any difference on the ticket, so Kaine is unlikely to pull Catholic voters.
Much more here.