Vice Presidential candidates rarely help a Presidential ticket to carry his home state, according to a book by Kyle C. Kopko and Christopher J. Devine. They have studied Vice Presidential candidates from 1960 until now and they find that Vice Presidential nominees rarely make a difference in carrying their home states for their Presidential ticket.
There have been times when a Vice President has delivered his home state but there are many conditions attached. The candidate must come from a small state where he is very well known, and have held numerous elected positions, such as Mayor, Governor, Senator. Tim Kaine has the elected offices covered but he’s not from a small state. It works for people like Joe Biden who is from a tiny state where everyone knows him.
According to the data collected by Kopko and Devine, Virginia is too large a state with too much diversity for Kaine’s nomination to make much difference.
Vice Presidential nominee Mike Pence is not likely to make much difference in his home state because Indiana is a red state and likely to stay that way in this election.
Home state advantage is very different for the top of the ticket. Presidential candidates have a 3% to 7% advantage in their home state. It’s hard to think of any scenario where Hillary doesn’t win New York.
The religion of a nominee for Vice President also doesn’t make any difference on the ticket, so Kaine is unlikely to pull Catholic voters.
Much more here.
21 comments
Even if Kaine is successful in putting Virginia in the Clinton column, Trump could still get over 270 electoral votes by winning the Reagan Democrats in places line PA, OH, IA, MI, FL, CO, and NV.
Yes, the deck is stacked against Republicans.
Because Republicans won’t give up their cheap labor.
To be accurate, the corporations that will pay them handsomely for their efforts, won’t give up their cheap labor.
Fair enough.
Just the way Trump likes it!
Trump will win VA and pull Rep. Comstock over the finish line whether she likes it or not.
Heck, she’ll probably end up in his cabinet just to pay off Shak H or Ken C with her congressional seat!
I thought the corrupt POS would pick a liberal to tie down her insurgent Feel the Bern problems which only seem to be getting worse, not better. Guess she figures white liberals aren’t going to matter–they will deliver her the states that she needs without paying attention to them… but is Kaine going to get out the minority vote like she needs?
Yeah New York isn’t in play, but Pennsylvania might be.. you still have Reagan Democrats there who have grown increasingly disenchanted with Democrats. I drove through Massachusetts last year and you would be shocked at the issue of illegal immigration there with Trump raising the issue hard…
Best theory I’ve heard is that Kaine was an early Obama supporter.
I still think he would resign if he thought she could win.
He thinks she CAN win but nothing in politics is certain so why give up a job?
Because it clearly shows that he’s hedging bets — this election they need optics presuming victory.
Why would anyone quit their current job before they have another job?
Different gangs have different initiation rites. The optics of him keeping his senate job does not reflect the all-in mantra he keeps repeating.
Why in the hell would anybody resign from a nearly $200,000 a year job when they don’t have to?
Because if he doesn’t, he’s admitting the likelihood that he might not win. Besides, what political future is there for Pres or vp losers?
So, if he knew without a doubt he was going to win, he should resign and give up about $60,000 in salary? That’s plain stupid.
Nobody is going to throw away $60k.
Do you quit your existing job when applying for a new one that you’d like to get? Exactly.
Exactly!
Perhaps seeking investment from Shark Tank is better than the job application metaphor.
This is an election and Tim Kaine is telling Virginia ‘If you don’t like us as President, I can still be your Senator a little while longer.
Will it matter to voters? Perhaps a number of them will think ‘If Tim’s got a plan B, maybe we’d better figure out why he thinks trump _might_ win.
Maybe it’s not a big deal to Democrats, but wait til the Donald starts crowing about it… Kaine will be wishing he was passing out pro-Castro lit with Pops Cruz in Baton Rouge.
No, he’s not “telling Virginia” that. You’re trying to make it seem he’s saying those words, like he’s your ventriloquist dummy.
That argument resembles the crap RPV tries to sling at the wall in the few weeks before an election that they know they’re going to lose. Nobody’s going to buy that, man.
It’s a figure of speech and it’s an example of walking the talk.
Trump can easily say “if Kaine thought crooked Hilary could win, he would put his money where his mouth is and quit” (and most GOP politicians playing the game like Kaine and paying AG4G Ken would agree) but Trump could expose this political escape clause.
Of course Pence gets bit right?
In that case Trump says ‘he’s a governor of Indiana, there are no spares like in the Senate’ and the Americans elbow each other and say ‘yeah, he’s right’
This is a different kind of election — ask the GOP about it.