All across the state Democrats turned out in record numbers to register their anger and outrage at the President. The result of the Governor’s race was not exactly a surprise. For the last 48 years Virginia has elected a Governor that is the opposite party of the President. The only exception was in 2013 (thanks, Bill Bolling).
What WAS shocking, however, was just how complete and utterly devastating the Republican party’s electoral collapse was. November 7th, 2017 will go down in the Virginia history books as one of the worst electoral beatings the Republican party has ever seen. Not only did we get swept in the three statewide races, but we have almost certainly lost control of the House of Delegates, a disaster thought unthinkable on Tuesday morning. As I write this, Democrats have defeated 16 Republican incumbents, with three races decided by less than 100 votes and clearly heading to recounts. It seems the best we will be able to do is force a 50/50 split in the House and come up with some sort of power sharing arrangement. The Democrats have not had a night like this since 1899.
Before all the ruined political careers had hit the floor, the spinning of the results had begun. Ed Gillespie was too establishment. Ed didn’t embrace Trump enough. Even the President tweeted out that if Gillespie had simply “bent the knee” and embraced full Trumpian status he would have sailed to victory.
Other people are blaming the inaction of Congress as a reason that Ed lost, and that the base didn’t vote for him. The RPV spin is all about “changing demographics” and “out-of-state money,” (as if we didn’t have millions of dollars pouring into the state 2 years ago when we won 66 seats in the House and held the Senate).
All of this is hogwash.
This election was a statement about one thing, and one thing only. It wasn’t about Ed Gillespie, and it wasn’t about Ralph Northam, It was about Donald Trump. All of the post election whining about the base not supporting Gillespie because he wasn’t “Trumpian” enough is total crap. The attempts to blame the Congress and their inaction as the reason Ed lost is also way off the mark. These excuses would mean that the base was so fed up with Republicans and their failures, or Ed’s establishment leanings, that they stayed home and didn’t vote. But that’s not what happened.
The base didn’t stay home. In fact, the base showed up in greater numbers for Gillespie than they did for Conservative stalwart, Ken Cuccinelli four years ago. If Ken had received the same number of votes Ed did last night, Ken would have been Governor.
Gillespie even topped Bob McDonnell’s vote count in 2009, when Bob won the Governor’s race with 58% of the vote. So don’t try to claim this race was lost because the base was punishing Ed for not embracing Trump.
Ed lost because Democrats came out in numbers normally only seen in presidential elections. Ralph Northam got nearly 400,000 more votes than Terry McAuliffe in 2013, and he got them in Democrat heavy areas:
- Alexandria City: Northam got 11,000 more votes than McAuliffe got four years ago:
- Arlington County: 20,000 more votes
- Charlottesville City (epicenter of the “statue debacle”): A nearly 50% increase in Democrat votes, from 9,440 in 2013, to 13,909 in 2017
- Chesapeake City: 8,000 more votes
- Fairfax County: A whopping 76,000 more votes for Northam over McAuliffe!
- Richmond City: 16,000 more votes for the Democrats
You even saw more traditional republican areas with more Democrats coming out to vote:
- Chesterfield County: Won by Ken C. in 2013 saw a spike of almost 50% in Democrat turnout from 42,000 to almost 58,000
- Loudoun County: A close county in 2013, won by Ed in 2014, gave Northam 25,000 more votes than McAuliffe
- Prince William County: 21,000 more votes for Northam
- Virginia Beach City: Won by Cucinelli in 2013, saw a 17,000 vote spike for the Democrats, and Northam carried the City
In every way, Ed Gillespie eclipsed Republican performance across the board, but the Democrats turned out numbers almost approaching Presidential election years. Why?
It wasn’t because Ed ran a poor race. The Republican Governor’s race was about as textbook as you can get.
It wasn’t because Northam was simply an awesome, dynamic, inspiring candidate. Northam did everything he could in the last few weeks to lose this race. From air brushing Justin Fairfax (the only black statewide candidate) out of their canvassing literature, to the “Murder Truck” ad that enraged Republicans, to the flip flop on sanctuary cities that had progressive groups running robocall ads against Northam the day before the election. The Democrats looked more like a collection of misfits than a well-oiled political machine at the end of this race.
No, the only thing that brought out so many Democrats (almost Presidential election numbers) is the man sitting in 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue who does not know how to lead, doesn’t have a Conservative bone in his body, politicizes every single issue under the sun, and must be the top story of the news on every channel…every day.
Democrats were already going to be fired up for this race because of losing the White House, but Trump’s continuous trolling of all things non-Trump just kept the flames fanned and made sure these people would crawl across a field of broken glass to cast a vote against the Republican party that has been enabling his antics. Because of this, good Conservative Delegates like Bob Marshall, Scott Lingamfelter, Randy Minchew, and others will not be returning to Richmond to fight off Medicaid expansion, or stop the Democrats from pushing legislation forcing public schools to let boys use the girls bathroom.
Barack Obama lost 1,000 down ballot seats for the Democrats during his 8 years as President. Donald Trump saw that number and said, “I can do that in 4.”
Different people can spin this anyway they want, but the simple fact of the matter is that this is 100% on Trump, and if we don’t do something about it now, 2018 is going to be even worse.
[…] Gillespie didn’t cost us this election, Trump did. Mick Staton wrote about this earlier in the week and he has been proven right over and […]
It’s the media’s characterization of Trump liberals and moderates are reacting to. If you take an objective look at what Trump has accomplished in one year he has fulfilled his promises to revert some of the horrific policies of Obama administration. Had any other mostly conservative GOP President like Cruz won the Presidency would be getting the same malicious treatment from the ideologically Communist press and Democrat party.
You and the nitwits at Bearing Drift should go ahead and tell yourself its all about Trump. If not for that darn Trump we would be a 100 percent conservative nation!!!
The Northern Virginia locations you list as having massively voted for Democrats is a site of mass immigration. The GOP has stood by and watched, aided abetted the Democrats in importing more voters. One two three… say the following:
Immigrants are Natural Conservatives!!!
Virginia is now California Trump or not. The Identity Politics Voters are never going to vote for you, nor are poor immigrants. This is Obama Country, the best identity politician that ever was.
Now tell me about that massive turnout!! Get bloody real morons… OK… say that because Trump is gone they only turn out a quarter of that incredible vote that lies in the shthole that is Northern VA… They still win the state wide elections.
Hell Trump was the only candidate who could win…you idiots don’t even see that. No other GOP Inc candidate would have the testicles to do what he did. Some milquetoast swamp dweller like Gillespie or his Bush organization won’t carry a message to get out votes. Did you see where Northam used the lobbyist Swamp dweller tag on Gillespie?
Turn out the Lights the GOP party is over in Va..
This man is 100% correct. I am growing weary of my pro-Trump friends.
TBE has gone full TDS here. The vitriolic #NeverTrump in this hate-filled article and many of the comments is sad. So out of touch with patriotic, positive Americans who by and large love and support our President.
And we appreciate Trump’s many tweets, because besides being correct, they drive liberals & other #NeverTrump/globalists into deranged fits.
President Trump’s got 7 more years to #MAGA as he puts #AmericaFIRST. We populists are going to love every minute of this Trump Train ride.
Did you vote for Gillespie?
Yes I did. Not that I want much of what he stands for, but I wanted him to win to counter the use of Identity Politics that the Democrats use effectively. That Latinos for Victory Ad sent me to the polls if nothing else.
I’m so glad you love Trump’s tweets. Did you especially love the ones where he was attacking a woman whose husband had died in service to our Country? How about the ones where he calls anyone who disagrees with him liars? I think my favorites are when he is engaging in a flame war with an unstable, psychotic man-child that has nuclear weapons which can reach the United States.
Do you know who else loves Trump’s tweets? The Democratic National Committee, because they know that every-day Democrats that don’t normally vote on a regular basis hear about them, read about them, and then show up to vote for Democrats in massive numbers just to spite him. Kinda like what happened here in Virginia on Tuesday.
So you may continue your idolatry of all things Trump. But when you look up in a couple of years and find Democrats have regained control of everything and are driving full speed ahead on completing the shift to socialism in America, don’t say you weren’t warned.
You are completely right. I cringe at Trump’s tweets and pray he stops. If Obama lost 1,000 democrat seats while he was in office, I look for Republicans to do even ‘better’.
What is TDS?
Trump Derangement Syndrome
If I have to put it in as few words as possible, Republicans lost last nite because they are nothing but a party of liars and corruption.
End of story.
Wait….did you just say that with a straight face….for a state with McAuliffe as governor? lol
Yea, I did. You defending Trump and Ryan with a straight face? Tuesday nights elections say the majority of Virginian’s agree with me. I called that election. I told you people for months about the GOP problems. However, I was wrong about Bob Marshall losing. Jim Portugul will now officially call next years Senate race and declare Tim Kaine the winner, and next November Barbara Comstock will lose her US House seat, unless, she were to switch party’s.
Just like today, Trump blames our trade deficit with China on previous admins. That’s wonderful. However, our trade deficit with Communist China has increased under Trump. For the first 9 months of the Trump administration, our trade defict with China is substancially higher than for the same 9 month period during the last year of the Obama administration.
Jobs? Doing great, eh? During the first 9 months of the Trump administration, versus the same 9 month period during the last year of the Obama admin, Obama created 10,000 more jobs.
And just to make you happy? McAuliffe jumped into bed with Dominion when he signed SB 1349.
Trump is not only the premier establishment Republican, he is one of the biggest liars in US history. Trump is the establistment.
I need to stop having dialogue with you. Your responses are unstructured and oblique. More clearly, fairly nutty. Maybe that’s unfair…more like random flow of consciousness.
“Thank God and Greyhound” you and your constant negativity are gone.
I emphatically disagree with this analysis of the election. While the President MAY have been responsible for the outcome it was NOT directly of his doing. NO, it is deeper than that – it is the UNWILLINGNESS of his party to support him because even THEY can’t believe he won the presidency and because he wants to do what the GOP has been PROMISING their constituents for years they would do (just to get elected or re-elected) and then do absolutely NONE of what they promised. They have joined the opposition in thwarting him, openly opposing him, undermining him and ridiculing him in public. It is disgusting that because THEIR establishment favorite didn’t win they refuse to cooperate with this President. The GOP is responsible for its own downfall. The public is sick and tired of them, their broken promises and their whiny, baby attitudes. The Dems on the other hand, no matter how much they lie, steal, abuse and cheat their base, they stick together like glue when they have an objective and NO ONE sets them off track. Additionally, the GOP is scared to death of anyone who is not ‘part of their program’ establishment and who actually WANTS to do what he said he would do. Ultimately, Virginians, we are now at the mercy of a ‘doctor’ who believes wholeheartedly in abortion at any stage; opening up bathrooms and any other area of female dominance to transgendered men ( who dress like women); allowing the lgbt agenda in the classroom even at the earliest of school age; allowing Virginia to become a ‘sanctuary’ state and the list goes on. Kiss the wonderful Commonwealth of VA goodby as historical monuments, one after the other, are taken down at the direction of Mr. Northam and his sidekick AG Mark Herring who should have been impeached several years ago but, obviously, the ‘fix’ was in. THIS is your future Virginians – hope you like it.
Correct. It is the doing of a group of globalist elite Republicans who are much more comfortable with “we are the world” than with “we are Americans”. The Bushes particularly disgust me, and I did a lot of work to get them elected.
I am willing to buy the Trump argument but not without the fact that the Congress has done nothing to buttress his arguments via legislation. In addition, are any of you writing a defense of Trump and the American Dream in any local newspapers or have you all just gone into a funk because Trump had the audacity to win an election that no Republican other than him could have won.
My biggest concern is that we have a bunch of RINOs who think like the Bushes/Romney in the House and Senate, and will block any attempts to put in place an America First agenda. Frankly, we can name the RINOs in the Senate with relative ease – McCain, Collins, Flake, Murkowski, Graham, Corker, and some more.
I am a Trump man but at this point he could attend least be tweeting every day from a new plant opening.
He did promise a whole lot on jobs coming back.
It may or may not be Trump who fired up the Democrats but it was definitely Gillespie who doused the spirits of the base.
I suppose it is easy to blame all this on a president you have hardly supported in the past. Are we to believe the 200,000 felons being granted their voting rights by Gov. McAwful had nothing to do with this election? How about the massive immigration into our state? Perhaps it is just a fact that there are more of them than there are of us. You are predictable if nothing else.
Republicans are responsible for the immigration growth also.
There ARE more of them than there are of us. There always has been, because the platform of the Democrat party is one of free stuff and moral decadence, free of responsibility or judgment. It is very appealing to people who don’t want to take the time to think through the real world consequences of these positions.
This is why lower turnout favors Republicans. It is a long term problem we need to address, but that is for another post. But when you have an unpopular President do everything he can to annoy and enrage his political opponents, what do you think is going to happen??
Do you really think that Obama didn’t enrage his political opponents? Frankly, he didn’t care and neither should Trump.
Yes, Obama enraged his political opponents, and the Democrats LOST OVER 1000 SEATS during Obama’s 8 years in office!! Is Trump looking to beat that record?
And yet, Obama managed to simply executive order his way to whatever corruption of the Constitution he wanted. And, since we are discussing seats. of what use is the seats in the Congress if nothing of the America First agenda gets done.
Yes, he is and he will be successful.
I’m not saying President Trump wasn’t a motivating factor for the leftists, but do you truly believe the election results would have been different if we had a Jeb Bush in the White House? Regardless, I certainly wouldn’t take the easy way out and put 100% of the blame on the president. 200,000 newly minted felon voters ought to garner 50% of the blame!
I think Virginia is the proving grounds for what the demwits want to do to the rest of the country with immigration, and they are certainly outperforming their expectations here. At least President Trump is attempting to stem the immigration flow, both illegal and legal.
Finally, Ed would not have been my first choice by far, but he did a fantastic job and I fought hard for him. In my county, the GOP ticket averaged 70% of the vote, and I am proud of that effort.
more of them? Are you talking about recent immigrants to the US or simply anti-trumps
Then I agree. The time of the radical right white Christians ruling the country is over
Like I said, Demwits!
Sounds like there’s some “never Trump” Ted Cruz commentary here. Folks == the reality is that Trump is the president and is who he is. Gillespie and others knew this was going to be a factor a long, long time ago. June should have been a wakeup call for RPV and the Gillespie-Vogel-Adams campaigns. Some 47% MORE Democrats voted in their primary than ours. That means the Dems started off this election, just as they have in previous statewide elections, with a LARGER Voter pool than us. They are much better at the ground game than us and have been for some time in Virginia. Northern Virginia has been trending Democrat for many, many years. They also should have seen that Corey Stewart had captured a good deal of the GOP base by running on a pro-Trump platform, Corey came close to winning. So, what did the Powers that Be do? They poured money into attack ads, did little to register new voters, and Ed failed to even embrace facets of the Presidents agenda that could have turned out more votes for him — defense, coal, taxes, infrastructure. In fact, this was the FIRST gubernatorial campaign I can recall where transportation was not an issue. Traffic congestion helped Warner, Kaine, McDonnell and McAuliffe win. Ed had No sexy issue like “repeal the car tax” to get the focus off of Trump. BTW, a number of us felt Cuccinelli dragged down the ticket and made GOP delegate candidates have to work harder. However, Ken brought out conservative voters, who voted for Minchew, Greason , Comstock, etc. Ed on the other hand did nothing of the sort and now we are facing a potential Democrat House of delegates. Again, Trump was a factor, but so was Ed’s failure to connect with voters and RPV’s dismal ground game. GOP delegats are losing downstate due to a surge in Dem voters and Republicans staying home. RPV shouljd do an analysis of who did not vote and why not.
Republicans didn’t stay home. Not at all. Turnout for Republican candidates statewide and in down ballot races was up from four years ago. Gillespie got more votes for Governor than any Republican in VA history. Stop trying to peddle the idea that Republicans stayed home. They didn’t.
Stop trying to make excuses for Trump as well. Saying that, “well Trump is who he is, and you needed to prepare for that,” is the worst kind of indulgence of bad behavior. I was neither a Gillespie fan or a Corey fan, but Ed ran a textbook campaign. There is only one answer for why 400,000 extra Democrats came out in the rain and the cold to vote for a lame candidate like Northam.
When you hear hoof beats, don’t think Zebra.
And turnout was down from last year (which is a much better metric given population growth and that this is not an off year federal election).
Turnout changes every year based on the races on the ballot, moving in a four year cycle.
The highest turnout year is the presidential election, followed by the Gubernatorial election. The next highest is the off year federal election, followed by the second odd year cycle in a president’s four year term where the most prominent race on the ballot is State Senator.
Turnout for Republicans was NOT down for the Gubernatorial cycle. In fact, Ed Gillespie got more votes than any Republican candidate for Governor in VA’s history. The difference is that Democrats were able to motivate their voters to a fantastic degree, and there is only one reason they were able to do that.
Turnout will also vary upward with population growth. Given the clip at which Virginia’s population has been growing, you have to account for that.
Additionally and all tolled, the Democratic voter turnout dropped 29% between 2016 and 2017. Republican turnout dropped 34%. There was an enthusiasm gap and Trump wasn’t the cause of that gap on the Republican side.
Bravo, somebody that understands growth and statistics.
Thanks… Its kinda my jam:-)
That kind of clear thinking could earn you the RPV Chair, err, I mean disqualify you.
The Weldon Cooper Center estimates Virginia’s population will grow from 8 million in 2010 to about 8.7 million in 2020 with about 90,000 under 18.
That’s about 61,000 per year. That would mean, at best and if their projections held, an increase of about 240,000 more possible registered voters from 2013 to 2017. Even if you assume the standard turnout for election cycles, and the typical registration advantage that Democrats get over Republicans, Gillespie STILL outperforms, and it STILL does not account for the increased turnout for Northam. There is only one thing that accounts for the increased turnout.
I think Weldon Cooper is wrong in their estimates. Almost 400,000 more people voted in 2017 than voted in 2013 (that is the number that voted NOT the number that registered).
In 2013 there were 5,250,029 registered voters in VA. There were 2,241,071 votes cast in 2013 for a turnout of 42.68%
In 2017 there were 5,485,014 registered voters in VI. There were 2,607,729 votes cast for a turnout of 47.54%.
(all of this data is freely available on the state board of election website, BTW)
The Republican candidate improved by about 170,000 votes from 2013 to 2017. That is nearly equal to the increase in total voter registration. The Independent candidate collapsed, going from 146,000 votes in 2013 to only 28,000 votes in 2017.
So what accounts for the nearly 400,000 vote increase for the Democrat? Was it Ralph Northam’s charm and dynamic speaking style? Was it all the Democrats he angered by flip-flopping on sanctuary cities? Was it the environmentalists who were angry at Northam for supporting Dominion and their plans for a new natural gas line?
What, pray tell, was the cause for the increased turnout from for years ago if it wasn’t Trump?
I will agree that the Democrats were fired up. They have lost their everloving minds since they lost the election last year. That has very little to do with any fault of Trump and very much to do with their mass psychosis and projection in assuming what they want to do to us, we will also do to them.
That does not explain the differential percentage decrease in voters (D vs. R). The decrease in R voters was not only a greater percentage (by about 6%) but also was greater in absolute numbers. THAT cannot just be explained by greater Democrat enthusiasm. It is also due to loss of Republican enthusiasm. THAT cannot be explained by “Trump” since Trump was not on the ticket. It can be explained by the lousiness of the candidate at the top of the ticket… an explanation that is supported by the fact that Vogel and Adams lost by less (and had greater numbers of votes) than Gillespie.
You cannot compare last night’s turnout to last year’s turnout because they are two completely different elections, with campaigns covering different issues, generating far different levels of interest in the population.
To truly do an analysis of turnout and the effectiveness of a campaign you need to compare apples to apples, which means you need to compare similar election cycles. That is the only way you are going to get any meaningful analysis. To try and blame Ed Gillespie for a drop in turnout from a presidential election year where you have lazy, uninterested people who only come out to vote once every four years is just not a realistic, nor a meaningful, analysis of the data.
MIck — i respect you and your service to the party and Loudoun, but Ed Gillespie did not run a “text book campaign” given all the warning signs that this was going to be a potential refgerndum on Trump. First, Trump was trounced in the primaries in Northern Virginia. Then, he was trounced by Hillary in the fall. Then came the resistance protests fueled largely by DC-area (including Nova activists). So, RPV had ample warning of this and the June primary — with 200,000 more Dems voting than Republicans – -should have led Gillespie to try something different other than distancing himself from Trump. So, in looking at the numbers, it does seem Northam got some 300,000 more votes than McAuliffe. Hence, RPV needed to (1) register more conservative voters (2) get them to the polls (3) spend less on attack ads – -who watches them any way and it was dumb to run MS 13 ads in Latino areas (4) Ed needed a sexy issue to take the issue away from being “Trump refrendum.” In myh view, that should have been traffic congestion, which affects all of us equally — Dem. GOP, black, white, etc. That could have eaten away at those suburban voters who instead of voting against Trump voted FOR , say, a 2nd crossing to Maryland, or a wider 81 or 95. Gillespie cold have embraced the president’s infrasturcutre and defense policies WITHOUT EMBRACING the prsident and his personality and tweets.
Trump was a factor but not the only factor. Four years ago the Democrats swept the same three state-wide races and anybody back then who would have said Donald Trump would be president in 2017 would have been laughed out of the room.
Virginia is becoming a liberal Democratic state. The gerrymandered House of Delegates districts let the Republicans hold on longer than in the “impossible to gerrymander” state-wide elections. If you want to see the political future of Virginia look toward Maryland. Urban areas are almost always liberal areas. As urban areas account for an ever increasing percentage of Virginia’s population Virginia will become increasingly blue. You’ll get the odd “Larry Hogan” from time to time but the consistent trend will be more liberal and more Democratic.
So, what should conservatives do? Disable Trump’s Twitter account? Not only would that end the extremely entertaining flow of rants that always brightens my day it wouldn’t reverse the long term trend. The only hope for conservatives is to break down the power of our state government in favor or more power in local government. Virginia’s strict implementation of Dillon’s Rule in the 1972 Constitution will inevitably mean that people living in conservative areas of the state will be increasingly dominated by an ever more liberal, Democratic, all powerful state government. I’ve lived on the Eastern Shore of Maryland. I know what it’s like to be in a conservative enclave dominated by a liberal statehouse. It will be worse in Virginia. At least Maryland’s Constitution provides considerable power to localities. In Maryland counties can levy income taxes. At first that sounds terrible. However, it’s not. Liberal Montgomery County has an income tax rate well over twice the rate in conservative Worcester County. Of course, if you’re going to devolve more of the tax collection to the counties you have ti devolve the spending decisions too. Do you want to pay a 5% income tax to the state and a 1% income tax to your conservative county or a 9% income tax to the state and nothing to the county?
The only hope for conservatives in Virginia is to break the back of Dillon’s Rule in Virginia and give more power to the localities. The Terry McAuliffes, Kathleen Murphys and Mark Herrings aren’t going away. By the time the next census is taken into account the Dems will hold both houses and the state-wide offices. It will be too late to escape the deep blue policies of Richmond.
You make some REALLY good points. The negative effects of the Dillon Rule (which effectively centralizes government at the state) have received little to no attention.
It would be much easier to move a county over and stay in the same area than to move to another state.
Trump good. Trump bad. Blah, blah, blah.
The question is: If Trump is President for 3-7 years, what does the VA GOP do to win? Trump’s style isn’t going to change. NOVA clearly doesn’t like Trump, while rural areas (big part of GOP electorate) does. So, the $1M question is how do we deal with the dichotomy and win?
We can’t as long as Trump is in the White House tweeting out something stupid every single day. We’ll be lucky to not lose more than a thousand seats across the country.
This analysis (Micks) is more on point.
Myself a first hand Trump supporter found it to my disbelief he found time to tweet that Ed lost because he is not like me. I am surprised he doesn’t trip over his ego with every step, requiring a wheelchair just to get room to room.
But please remember what had brought on his win, Dems and Repubs selling out America with a little help that Obama was the one in before for 8 years.
He (Trump) is special but not the good kind of special.
How much of what Trump tweets is actually stupid? It would be useful to remember that tweeting is the only way he can get around the fake new promulgated daily by the press. Will he make some stupid statements – yes. But I have found that his most substantive statements are not only on target but actually forecast the near future quite well.
Remember when he criticized Sweden? The press went nuts. Then the next day there were massive riots in Sweden. Or how about his boldness in dealing with ISIS? He wiped them out of Raqqa. I could go on and on but what we Republicans do is react to the left rather than proact to the right. (We have been reactive so long we don’t know how to punch ahead let alone punch back like Trump.)
I called Tuesday’s election with remarkable accuracy. I told you over and over what the problems are. Corey Stuart would have done better, but only by a few points.
First, Trump will not be President for 8 years.
Second, we CANNOT win races as long as Trump keeps acting the way he does. If he can’t talk about things without trolling everyone and everything, then he needs to just shut up! The only Republicans that won their races last night are ones where there were just too many Republicans for the increased Dem turnout to overcome. That’s why it is called a “wave” election. When faced with a Tsunami, you can be the best swimmer in the world and it is not going to matter one damn bit when that wave hits you.
Gillespie, Vogel, and Adams ran textbook campaigns, but it really is hard to get an undecided voter to support you and show up to the polls to vote for you when you have somebody standing behind you, making faces and giving voters the middle finger all the time.
Politics is the art of persuasion. We seem to have forgotten that.
With an election every year we have at least 3 more to go with Trump at the helm and I’d rather not choose surrender as the 1st option.
I don’t have an answer of how to bridge the divide. I know we can’t stop Trump from being Trump and we will have to purely be reactionary, but if we accept that as the reality perhaps we can deal with it. Off the cuff thoughts are:
1. Message that we embrace the policies but not the personality.
2. REALLY ramp up GOTV efforts in rural areas.
So, your first idea is that we hide from the fight. That is about as bad an idea as I can imagine and it leads us to the kinds of presidents that the Bushes represented. You don’t have to be nasty but, let us face it, the other side has no such restrictions on them and we just go “Oh, they are just acting like Democrats”. We, no more, if they want a fight I suggest we give it too them.
Really, then how do you explain obamacare? The Democrats have no interest in persuasion and Obama even said so himself.
Thank you Mick, for being one of the intellectually honest republicans. Yes, there were contributing factors ie, the race baiting ads, Congresses inability to enact legislation, etc – but Trump was the reason we got shellacked.
I walked into work this morning, democrat friends tell me we lost because of Trump. But I already knew that cause I worked the polls yesterday as an election officer in Eastern Loudoun. Our folks freezing outside couldn’t give a sample ballot away with a free pizza. On a cold rainy day mothers were dragging their 3 kids into the polling place with the light blue sample ballot, and they had attitude! Like they were there on a mission! All day long – young people, minorities, families together, all with their D Sample ballots. We got bush-wacked – and it had little to do with Gillespie.
I hate to ask, but are we sure that the ad didn’t work for Northam and that the minority communities actually might think that white Republicans go hunting for their children in pickup trucks? After the election in 2016, even some of my college educated friends were posting concerns on Facebook that Trump was going to send gays and lesbians to concentration camps.
If those voters thought the ad had some merit, then our outreach efforts are worse than I thought.
The ad might have worked but we have a heavy minority community in the east, what I saw was an increase in that traffic. And even if the ad did work, it was because they probably think Trump is a racist. So yeah, Trump.
But the truck in the commercial had a Gillespie not Trump bumper sticker.
It is my opinion that much of what the Dems do is to keep their own “on the plantation” by using scare tactics. They have been doing it since they literally were scaring their slaves to stay on the plantation. So, yes, I think the ad did work for Northam. It wasn’t to sway voters. It was to make sure Dem voters did what their puppet masters wanted them to do.
Sadly, I think that the ad actually worked in Northam’s favor. The Latin Victory Fund actually stated that they will run more ads that depict republicans as racists. This goes hand-in-hand with postmodernist “theories” that are being taught on college campuses. To groups like LVF (and the individuals that comprise them), facts do not matter. It is all about one’s personal perception or “lived experience”. The chairman of the DNC supported this ad because, “this is how minorities and people of color feel.” (I’m paraphrasing his words.) These “theories” have made the leap from academia and have now entered the mainstream and are the backbone of identity politics.
Article on LVF doubling-down:
Article on how these “theories” come to be:
Jordan Peterson on Postmodernism and Cultural Marxism:
if you don’t like ad depicting you as racist, stop being racist
If you don’t like being labelled an idiot, stop being an idiot.
Wow. And to think you once declared TBE to be a no name calling zone. You go girl.
Or you can address the real issue here and realize that if people perceive racism, then the only cure is to change your actions and words.
But go ahead and change the topic all you want. This is your site afterall
SD…calling people racists is kinda name calling. Kinda.
Typical low-information troll. Everyone you don’t agree with is racist
.. Grow up.
Racism is NOT the reason for everything despite what you Democrats think.
CMSK complained about ads depicting your and YOURs are racist. I suggest that it is not the ads that are the problem. It is the perception that you and YOURS are racist.
so, instead of attacking me, try to tackle the actual issue here – your behavior and posts that cause others to think about you the way they do.
OR, continue to shoot the messenger and ignore your own responsibility for peoples perception of you and YOURS
Raymond Wood is the only one that got run over and he did get run over by latinos in this Country/State that were not contributors at all, they were scabs on civilized society. Politically protected by Governor McAuliffe. I would like to see all five get the death penalty. And if Mark Herring interjects himself he should hold his press conference from the side of the road where Raymonds memorial is. And that in no way in hell is racist.
you dont get to decide what is racists anymore the same way you dont get to decide what is sexual harassment. You must deal with others’ perception, not your own
And you should stop molesting animals while beating your wife.
Excellent post by the way..
Thanks. Dude’s a troll.
It is frustrating to watch all of this energy being spent on what went wrong when it’s clear that the RPV and Republicans in general still do not have a handle on: 1.) what will motivate and resonate with the electorate; 2.) how D’s are creating, motivating, and getting their base out to vote; 3.) pushing back on false attacks in a coherent and consistent manner. Just watch the D’s, they all speak the same talking points. This doesn’t happen out of the blue. They have structured themselves to stay on message. Structurally, a lot of this work has been done using tax payer money – i.e. academia and indoctrinating college grads. Outside of academia different activist groups and K-12 teachers then continue the work started on campus. I came across this write-up that helps to explain how this is done. This guy has spent a ton of time reading and researching how leftists organize – Repubs, time for you to know your opponent – and has synopsized it very well.
Repubs and the RPV should read this. Conservatives are getting tired of showing up to vote only to see nothing get done when we elect candidates on what turn out to be empty promises. My sense is that they’re tired and burned out. The left on the other hand, is absolutely ready to start taking things back. They’re learning from their mistakes and their use of technology in the VA race to engage their constituents and potential voters helped to get the vote out. See here for further evidence:
Note: I have no idea who the other author’s are on the 451 site or really who this guy is, but his write-ups are really good, as is Days of Rage if you have the time to read it (really explains a lot).
What ‘outreach’ efforts? The GOP doesn’t know how to fight, just how to get elected by lying.
Outstanding article. You’re absolutely right. Republicans will, of course, ignore reality and double-down in 2018, thus losing as no major party has ever lost in this state in modern times.
When you say do something now, what do you have in mind? Also, there are millions of Americans (Virginia aside) who trust Trump more than any media source or other politicians. They were disillusioned by Bush and stayed home for Romney and McCain. They might even give up on voting all together if we ousted Trump. How would we make up their losses and win if we dumped Trump?
I’m not saying we have to dump Trump. Trying to remove Trump from office would do more damage to the party than leaving him in place for the next three years. The Trumpsters and the establishment both made us swallow this bitter pill. Now we have to let it pass through our system and try to minimize the damage.
The real danger is falling for the “we have to be more like Trump!” argument that is being peddled out there. You can see here in the comments how people are putting their Trump blinders back on, refusing to listen to any criticism of the orange-headed one. Our party is moving dangerously close to the Obama-style idolatry of the Democrats for the last 8 years, and that will destroy us as a party.
I guess a follow-up question then would be was yesterday our worst political day ever and the pendulum will swing back? I mean maybe Trump keeps a 3 percent GDP growth, but Northam is inept at governing, voters could say enough of this and we do well in the 2019 state house races.
“Trying to remove Trump from office would do more damage to the party than leaving him in place for the next three years”
This is exactly why so many of your Democratic friends are angry with you. You know what Trump is and yet you ignore his illiberal administration because reckoning with his demagoguery and ill-temper would hurt the Republican party. How can you possibly claim to care for this country and yet support Trump?
2017 is only the beginning. We are going to contest every election we possible can and, for the sake of our great nation, I pray to God Democrats win.
We also knew what Obama was, yet you kept insisting that he wasn’t. He did more damage to civility in the USA than the previous ten presidents – he just did it under cover.
And what was Obama before he was elected POTUS? A sitting Senator from Illinois. Trump was what, exactly? Shall we be generous and call him a businessman? I’m afraid we’re about to learn much more about his business dealings than he is comfortable sharing.
Nevertheless, let’s delve into what President Obama did to increase incivility during his 8 years in office. Can you name a single instance? Did he ever offer to pay his supporter’s legal bills if they attacked protestors? Did he ever threaten to revoke a broadcasting license (a power he wouldn’t have anyway but Trump doesn’t know that or much of anything really)?
We could list hundreds of examples of Trump’s dangerous rhetoric. Thousands of examples at this point. How many can you list for President Obama?
I find the fact that you need to refer to President Obama at all, as if his supposed bad behavior excuses Trump’s dangerous behavior, deeply troubling. It’s also rather illuminating.
Not that you’re focused on Obama. No, what I find disturbing is a person who claims to be an American patriot but countenances blatant, rampant, and continuing abuses against our Republic because Obama supposedly did it too. Is that what you teach your children? Or, do you teach that what is wrong is wrong no matter who does it or for whatever reasons they do it?
Obama took a Tea Bag and used it to ridicule the Tea Party. How about this suggestion that Republicans go to the back of the bus or his threats about bringing a gun to a knife fight. But you probably want more so you can do the research about his denigration of the police. The only difference between obama and trump was that obama’s insults were covered up by a compliant press while trump’s are magnified day to day.
Do I excuse Trump’s stupid remarks – no. But I don’t buy into your excuse for obama either.
I think you know how dishonest you are being, intellectually and morally, in your argument. Trump’s remarks aren’t merely stupid in the way President Bush’s might have been or President Obama’s might have been. They are dangerous.
Please do me a favor and re-read the Federalist papers. Clear your mind and simply read them again. How often, I wonder, will you say “they’re talking about Trump” to yourself once you do?
I am glad you descended into the dangerous area. You do realize that Obama went after an American citizen for inspiring the attacks at Benghazi. The poor guy was arrested for trying to get funds to make a film about Islam. Obama and his administration said that Benghazi was a reaction to what this guy had done. (By the way, I actually saw the trailer which was supposed to get funds to make the movie) So, there is a quite specific connection between Obama and danger to specific Americans. He not only put the guy in danger, he used the law against him, claiming he violated his parole. That was obama justice.
The conclusion you reach is tenuous, at best, and again factually and morally incongruent with the deeply troubling behavior of Donald Trump. Don’t take my word for it, though. I’m just a Democrat. Rather, look to your fellow Republicans who are acknowledging the same reality.
Further, the intelligence community has said repeatedly that part of the rioting and violent attacks that were seen in Libya, Egypt, and so forth *were* in reaction to that anti-Islam film. That doesn’t mean, of course, that every participant in the Benghazi attack was motivated by the film. One thing can be true and another as well.
There was no film. There was a few minute trailer intended to encourage people to financially support a larger project. It was badly made and the few actors and actresses involved quickly repudiated it (likely for fear of Obama’s administration who arrested the film producer for a parole violation). I actually saw the trailer – apparently you didn’t.
This was nothing but an attempt to distract from the obama and Clinton mistakes. And, by the way, whose intelligence community was it?
Those of us who are oppressed by the radical white majority think civility appeared with Obama. Only those like you who lost white power think otherwise
Again, everything is not about race. You are a one note wonder. No one is buying your constant drumbeat of racism. It’s tedious and simply not true. Try something else, this isn’t selling.
you are correct – this is not a white issue – it is a radical white christian majority issue – please read every word, not just the small ones
What has really astounded me is how easily the Bushes violated Reagan’s 11th commandment while giving both Clinton and Obama a pass. The idea that a uni-party exists at the top is compelling as a result.
Wow… just wow…
I didn’t see Trump’s name on my ballot yesterday. The author’s assertion this was on Trump is laughable. How about the fact Republicans put up another establishment milquetoast candidate?
I didn’t see Barack Obama’s name on the ballot in 2009, or 2010, or 2014 when Republicans made massive gains all across the country, but we all know why people were voting Republican those years. To claim that hundreds of thousands of extra Democrat voters came out to vote for one of the most uninspiring, lackluster Democrat candidates in recent memory, and that it had nothing to do with Trump is just self-delusional fantasy, and it is incredibly dangerous for the political viability of the Republican party.
Oh, please… let’s play blame the boogyman!
The Republican party is becoming increasingly irrelevant. One day Virginia may put up a candidate worth voting for who stands for citizens instead of just trying to pander to us “unwashed masses”. I despise the Democrat platform and what it stands for, but can appreciate how they can come together to get out the vote. Republicans are too busy sniping each other over who is more Republican than the other.
If you disagree then by all means, please provide your well-reasoned analysis as to what happened last night.
You are right about one thing. The Republican party IS becoming increasing irrelevant as it continues to sway to the siren song of Trump and his sycophants.
And if circumstance were different there are those that would assert “The Republican party IS becoming increasing irrelevant as it continues to sway to the siren song of Cruz and his sycophants.” You really need to move on and get over it as your ilk is more dangerous to the GOP than a division of community organizers.
My “ilk” are the real Conservatives that are trying to get the party to return to the values it claims to support. Your ilk appear to want to whistle past the graveyard, pretending nothing is wrong. Until we deal with the 800 pound, orange-hued jackass masquerading as an elephant in the room, we will never fix what is wrong with the party.
And there you have it folks, right from the pretentious, establishment turd’s mouth. Bear in mind you started this. My “ilk” doesn’t whistle past the graveyard, we yell at those “real Conservatives” such as yourself who (in no particular order) 1. accept large donations from the development industry and do their bidding at the state and local levels; 2. accept large donations from Dominion and APCO to do their bidding and protect their profit margins; 3. enact new “transportation taxes” for NOVA and Tidewater so that the State can continue to use those areas as the funding source for the rest of the state resulting in double, or is triple, taxation of those that live in NOVA or Tidewater; 4. Gerrymander districts to their benefit and harm GOP adversaries (see Jackson Miller foisting Manassas Park on Bob Marshall); 5. rig the proffer system to the detriment of localities… need I go on?
If you are still wondering why the makeup of the Loudoun BOCS swings like a mad pendulum, eventually affected other elections, I would suggest looking in the mirror.
The only thing I find funnier than anonymous cowards hiding behind fake names in order to insult me is being called establishment.
In my brief time on the BoS I fought for lower taxes, stopped density packing in Eastern Loudoun, and convinced the Loudoun BoS to file suit against the unelected taxing bodies Tim Kaine tried to foist on us (a suit we won in the VA Supreme Court unanimously, btw).
I also passed the compromise Western Loudoun growth plan that ended the growth wars out there and helped stop the pendulum swings. in case you hadn’t noticed, Republicans have controlled the BoS with super majorities for two straight cycles.
What this has to do with fake Republicans like you supporting a Democrat masquerading as a Republican in the White House, and his antics costing our party the service of real conservatives like Bob Marshall is beyond me.
Go away troll. Come back when you have something that resembles a coherent thought.
Density packing continues and will ramp up if the BCP is approved, the growth wars never stopped, I believe the BOCS Chair is Dem, the pendulum continues to swing, Trump was not my original choice but I supported the duly selected nominee and now president, Trump did not cost Del. Marshall his seat but whole host of additional factors did.
Come back when you have a rational strategy and explanation, pointing all blame at the Boogeyman is the simpleton’s way out. As to my anonymity, I am not a anonymous as you would presume, many know who and where I am, sorry you’re not connected enough to figure it out, not that I particularly care.
This guy went full retard after his boy Cruz lost. I wouldn’t be surprised if he voted for Hillary.
Actually, it swayed to the GOPe and we got both Clinton and Obama. And if it hadn’t been for Trump, with all his warts, we would have had the graceful loser Jeb Bush as our candidate.
my vote was less anti-trump and more anti-TBE
He is part correct and you are fully correct.
[…] Posts A post-mortem, and a look forward Yes, this was all about Trump Time to rebuild, the right way Moving Forward From Here Northam Wins OpEd: Increase Access […]
Trump not conservative you say? What about tax reform, reducing government regulations, reforming imagination policy…the list could go on….would have the party go center/left to win?
Trump’s tax reform bill raises taxes on middle class families to pay for corporate tax cuts.
Trump’s health care plans keep the guts of Obamacare in place in perpetuity.
Trumps immigration policy calls for citizenship for millions of “dreamers.”
No. Trump is not a Conservative.
I don’t agree with you on the Tax reform, but the other criticisms are correct. Trump is not conservative. Last night Laura Ingraham said something like “Populist Conservatism is the future, traditional conservatism is dead”. Look at her twitter feed and what she has bought in to. It is absolutely embarrassing.
Populist conservatism is America First. Apparently traditional conservatism is globalist socialism first. I think my kids will like the former better than the latter if we can save this nation.
Trump had no idea that the Senate had lied for the entirety of the Obama presidency when it came to healthcare. The tax cut plan is a product of the Congress. Trump set some parameters – the devil is in the details and it appears our wonderful Republican leadership doesn’t have the guts to make a few people unhappy. Trump will never get citizenship for Dreamer – and yet who has been pushing it for decades but Republican leaders. Finally, apparently, we no longer like the idea of America First in foreign affairs. We want to be like the rapidly failing EU.
No blame for Ryan or McConnell not delivering any legislative victories the GOP could point to?
You will need to re-read the post. It was put up before it was finished.
No, if it was Ryan or McConnell’s fault, then Republican voters would have sat at home and not voted, but that’s not what happened. Ed outperformed the last two Governor’s candidates, and even his own performance in 2014. The Democrats simply came out in force, and there is only one reason they did that.
Not even willing to consider a few legislative victories might have dampened the Dem’s spirits or perhaps created some margin in the debate, where it wasn’t all about immigration and statues? Maybe a workable solution/replacement for Obamacare would have taken some steam out of the Dem’s narrative on what exit-polls show as the top concern? Almost every Democrat Delegate candidate ran on medicare expansion and/or single-payer. You don’t think that uncertainty regarding the future of ACA might have had just the tiniest bit of impact on turnout?
No. Passing Trumpcare would have been the worst of both worlds. Democrats would have run with a message saying Trump and Republicans are killing old and poor people, AND we would have been stuck with us owning Obamacare lite and all the premium increases that came with it, and that might have actually depressed Republican turnout.
The success or failure of the GOP in Congress did not affect turnout, as evidenced by Gillespie’s performance compared to 2013 and 2014. This race was decided by incredibly high Democrat turnout, and that solely rests on the shoulders of Trump who has done everything he can do, every day, to keep the Democrats enraged.
So, to you, no legislative victories is better than a poor legislative victory (if it actually was going to be poor at all). I disagree.
Trump had a right to expect that the Senate would deliver on healthcare, and they didn’t. Now they are pulling the same stunt with tax reform. I have to wonder how many Republican leaders are simply globalists who share the ideas of the Democrats and their anti-America First agenda.
“So, to you, no legislative victories is better than a poor legislative victory”
That’s correct. I consider shooting myself in the foot much worse than not shooting myself in the foot.
If Trump wanted Congress to deliver on healthcare, maybe he should have actually presented a clear, coherent, CONSERVATIVE strategy. Instead, he left everything up to the wonks in charge, then browbeat the House Freedom Caucus into supporting a warmed over Obamacare-lite bill, THEN blasted that bill for being too mean, THEN said we should drop everything and let Obamacare fail, THEN said we should just do straight repeal, THEN said, “no, I want Trumpcare again.”
The same thing is happening with tax reform. We have a tax bill that raises the lowest tax rate, cuts deductions for individuals, does away with the state and local deduction, caps mortgage interest deductions, and will actually make middle class tax bills go UP, all so he can cut the corporate tax rate, which will help people who file like small business, like real estate developers. Hmmm…..
He had a right to believe that Obamacare repeal and replace had been well thought out. There had been 7 to 8 years to put in place the repeal and actual legislation had been sent to Obama on numerous occasions. You had McConnell saying not only was repeal and replace the first item on the agenda but he would send something to the president almost immediately after inauguration. He left Trump scrambling in a brand new presidency and that is exactly what you describe in paragraph three.
Then on to tax reform. As far as I can tell Trump had about two key things he wanted. Major tax cut for business and major tax reform/cut for the working class. Now we see all of the lobbyist trying to undo what hasn’t even been presented. How can Trump make it any simpler than to lay out the parameters of an America First tax reform. The Congress has to put together the legislation and, once again, they are proving themselves to be gutless liars. Disgusting.
I’m not saying Trumpcare was a good piece of legislation, at least without the planned follow-on reforms that were supposed to be worked out in the tax bill (which is in jeopardy too). What I am saying is that failure by the Congress to tackle healthcare day one left this issue in play, and beyond hating Trump, it was the number 1 issue cited by those who supported Northam. The number 1 issue for those supporting Gillespie was immigration. There’s two examples of failure on the part of our congressional leadership that impacted VA GOP success negatively. Without Healthcare reform, Northam’s coattails would have likely been shorter, and we might not have experienced the GA bloodbath. To look at this is all about Trump, and only about Trump is IMHO myopic, and will hamper the VA GOP in 2019. I believe it may be too late to save 2018, as these same members of congress who haven’t passed any meaningful legislation, or worse, actively opposed the President’s agenda, won’t have anything to run on. My GOP member of Congress, who had my support previously, had done absolutely nothing to inspire me to support her, since the 2016 election, and she has actively opposed the President. I can forgive one of these, but not both. I’ll likely vote for her, just because, but really have better things to do with my time and money.
In 2009 Obama and the Democrats were working on Obamacare. It was being discussed, and ideas were forming, but they weren’t close to passing it yet. However, town hall meetings were being swamped with angry people, and the number one issue for people going to the polls that year was healthcare, with those voters overwhelmingly voting Republican to register a protest against the idea of the Government trying to take control of healthcare.
Now tell me, if Obama and the Democrats has passed Obamacare before the 2009 elections, would that have made the people angry about the issue more likely or less likely to come out and vote that year? Would you have been mollified because the Democrats passed legislation you viscerally hated?
I know you like Trump, but you have to look at the numbers dispassionately, look at the massive increase in Democrat turnout, and then ask yourself what possible factors could have caused it. Did the Democrat candidates do ANYTHING to inspire that level of increased turnout? No. They were a collection of bumbling idiots.
The only factor that could have generated that many extra Democrats to come out and vote is Trump.
The difference between 2009 and today is now we know what the effects of ACA are: Skyrocketing premiums, individual mandates, and about the same number of uninsured. Also, you assume that I “like” Trump. It’s not a matter of “like” or dislike. He is my Republican President. Obama was a “likeable” guy, who had a blank-check to get what he wanted done, during the 1st two years of his presidency. He and his party took full advantage of this. Trump is our Republican President, and his own party is frittering away chances to get real things done, and even going as far as to add their voices to the opposition. For what? For principle? I’m not going to be foolish and hang this 100% on Trump, and let Ryan and McConnell off the hook. I know too many long & loyal Republicans who aren’t neccessarily red-hat wearing MAGA types and are fed up with the party and its leadership. They say, “we fought hard to win control of the Whitehouse and Congress….and what have they done. At least Trump is trying”. SO what if Ed, Jill, and John did a better job at GOTV, than did Cooch, EW, and Mark. I know Republicans who only voted for Obenshain. I know some who voted for Cooch and not for EW. We didn’t go Dems 10+ in these NoVA House districts in the last 4 years, that stood for election just 2 years ago. So I will again state that the view that this is “all about Trump” is myopic. You want to sit on a one-legged stool, go right ahead. You want to ignore the fact that the current Democrat state admin added 200K plus felons to the voter roles (which might have contributed to Northam’s margin) or dismiss frustration with the lack of movement on the part of the Congress, it’s still a marginally free country. But you can’t argue this is “all about Trump”, and be intellectually honest.
Ryan and McConnell stifled the Trump agenda and left him naked in the face of a vile press and rabid group of anti-american socialist democrats. Sometimes, it is important for supposed party leaders to get behind something they don’t particularly like because it is good for America. This whole thing reminds me of the previous situation with Cuccinelli when so many Republican leaders actually trashed the guy.