Anticipating the same outcome before doing the same activity is not prophesy. Expecting a different outcome when doing the same thing over and over is insanity. This sums up what is going on with a contingent of Virginia’s Republicans during this General Election Cycle.
Hope is not a strategy, but I get the feeling that many Republicans are content to chalk up an occasional win of a statewide General Election to luck. We get lucky every once in a while. The blind squirrel occasionally finds a nut.
What I cannot determine is the cause of such serendipitous behavior. Is it political naiveté? Republican voters, in some parts of the state, are unfamiliar with the way politics actually work and therefore prone to make amateur assumptions, foster electoral mistakes, and set themselves up for unintended political consequences.
The other alternative and I am sure we have all heard this, is the perennial excuse that Republicans are the stupid party. Now don’t take offense with that statement. I’m not talking about the individual Republican being a stupid person. Historically, the party has been known to make some really bone headed decisions and when actions are eventually discovered, one has to wonder what our leadership was thinking when those activities were given the go-ahead and funding. That is not the case here, since the problem I am describing is a small but significant group of individual voters.
So what is it that keeps us from winning Elections? And when we do, it hinges on dumb luck for the most part and not a focused, direct, and organized campaign of conservative solutions to issues with candidates that are principled and consistent with their votes.
I’m talking about the mistaken direction our voting has taken over the last 8 to 10 years where a segment of our Republican base voters come away from a hard primary/convention nominating process with a negative attitude about the winning candidate. Their reasoning goes something like this; “since my candidate did not win the nomination, I will show how disappointed I am by not supporting the winning Republican candidate”.
The reasoning goes something like, “The newly nominated candidate is not as conservative or moderate a candidate as I would want, so I will stay home on Election Day. That will show the party that they have to give me the respect I deserve because their imperfect candidate cannot win without me and my cohorts.”
Maybe some examples are in order:
- Ed Gillespie’s campaign for Senate against Warner where a set of conservatives and/or evangelicals, stayed home and the Republican Senate Campaign Committee did not fully fund Ed’s campaign. Even with those strong head winds, Ed came very close to defeating Warner. If Ed had won, we would have probably dodged Obamacare. Naiveté or stupidity?
- Cuccinelli’s race against McAuliffe for Governor. Besides lack of support by the Republican Governor’s Association, a large contingent of Republican Establishment types (remember Bill Bolling and Boyd Marcus) did not want to support Cuccinelli, for doing so would reward the upstart TEA Parties with even greater influence. So not only did we lose the Governorship, but we also lost the Office of Lt. Governor and the Attorney General’s office. Naiveté or stupidity?
- Most recently, the 2016 Presidential Election brought this absurd exercise to its ultimate conclusion with Virginia giving all of its electors to Hillary Clinton. Many Establishment types and the rabid #NeverTrumpers decided to sit out the 2016 Election. Not only that, but many of our Senate and House districts, that went for Hillary, are now under assault by Democrats because of perceived weakness of Republicans in those same districts. Naiveté or stupidity?
Naiveté is possible to correct. I saw this first hand when the TEA Party movement was in its infancy. Collectively we had a very pristine view of how politics was supposed to work. Boy was that a painful learning curve. Stupidity, on the other hand, is easy to overcome, but is still a painful process.
The first painful step is to realize that your personal decision to withdraw from the campaign this year will have many negative consequences for Virginia. Any candidate may not be your ultimate, perfect embodiment of a Conservative, but take a look at a comparison between Ed and Ralph Northam here, courtesy of Rob Bell’s article in the Fairfax Free Citizen. Ignoring this election will saddle Virginia not only with a Socialist Democrat as our Governor, but he will fill his top positions in his administration with like-minded Democrats and this will be highly detrimental to the Commonwealth.
Withholding your vote and participation in this election will not only give Virginia four more years of a Socialist Democrat administration where we have seen 200,000 felons voting, our reciprocal concealed carry permits being restricted, and many good conservative bills passed by our House and Senate being vetoed by McAuliffe.
Another problem you are gifting to the Democrats is a continuation of non-citizens voting in our elections that were found by the Virginia Voters Alliance and Public Interest Legal Foundation. Virginia’s voter rolls are at an all-time low level of integrity. This will only get worse if Northam and Herring win this election.
There is an adage that says “you can’t fix stupid.” Collectively we can by collectively supporting the Republican ticket both statewide and our local House Elections. Don’t let the Democrats win by Republicans being the stupid party.
22 comments
Reagan, have you lost it, friend? This is what the establishment does. For 60 years conservatives have held their nose and supported the Republican nominee no matter who it is in the name of party unity and beating the Democrats. BUT THE ESTABLISHMENT NEVER DOES. The Virginia and national Republican party savagely attacked and sabotaged the nominee of the Republican party for US Senate, Oliver North. The establishment got former Congressman Marshall Coleman to run as an Independent. Ollie North lost by 2.5% while the spoiler Marshall Coleman took 14.35% of the vote. We got a Democrat for US Senate, Chuck Robb, and the slide of VIrginia towards the Democrat Party began.
[…] Reagan George Originally posted in The Bull Elephant on October 30, 2017 Reposted with permission of the […]
The campaign by Establishment Republicans against Cuccinelli was neither naiveté or stupidity, it was deliberate sabotage which saddled the rank and file with many legislative consequences. The fact that none of the guilty parties were thrown out of the party merely reinforces the deep skepticism harbored by conservatives and libertarians and set a precedent for others to do the very same thing.
“If Ed had won, we would have probably dodged Obamacare.”
THIS IS TRUE BECAUSE HE WOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO TRAVEL BACK IN TIME AND VOTE AGAINST IT
You are not remembering how the Democrats struggled with the last few Senators to pass the ACA. The Kick back and other bribery schemes come to mind. If Ed was in the Senate at that time, he would have been a no vote and not willing to sell his vote like the Democrats were. No traveling back in time required.
The ACA was passed in 2010. The Gillespie Election was in 2014.
Sorry confused Ed with Jim Gilmore.
Great article. All I know is that I want someone willing to sign conservative legislation coming out of the General Assembly. Gillespie is our best bet.
I did not support Cuccinelli as Governor because as Attorney General he allowed illegal aliens to work as unlicensed contractors in Va.
He also allowed then VEC Commissioner Broadway to classify these Illegal aliens as bona-fide independent contractors.
Why did the then Republican AG allow VOSHA/DOLI to issue these violations to these illegal alien/unlicensed contractors and not notify DPOR of The Dept of Commerce?
http://watchdog.org/202012/subcontractors-shadow-economy
Story title;
Rouge Subcontractors Undermine Va’s Legal Workforce , by Kenric Ward
So instead we got McAuliffe and Northam. How did that work out for you?
Actually better.
McAuliffe implemented policy change on VOSHA / DOLI, they now currently notify DPOR when unlicensed contractors are detected.
It even caused the complicit Republican Senator Bill DeSteph to bring for SB483, this bill tried to make these notifications against the law.
And to boot I still don’t hire Transformers.
May I ask you ,
What is Jeb Gillespie looking for to sign in Employee Misclassification Legislation.
You may reference JLARC 427.
If you think McAuliffe has been on your side to protect your business from the massive influx of illegal aliens, I can’t help you. I’m sure you can get even more help if you vote for Northam this time.
Just remeber the 5,550 non-citizens we found being removed from the voter rolls. THere is no telling how many are still on the voter rolls. Republicans are also competing against 200,000 voting felons, vote harvesting in Nursing Homes and Rehab Centers, Trying to change our gun laws across 31 other states, etc. Naiveté or stupidity?
You are proving my point. I am not familiar with the article you quoted and Ken Cuccinelli as AG either could have been mistaken or the law he was sworn to up hold was poorly written from the begining. But the alternative was McAuliffe and by allowing him to be Governor means that the law could not have been corrected by the General Assembly and signed by a Republican Governor. Naiveté or stupidity?
At any point in presenting legislation my Republican State Senator Newman could bring forth a bill to combat this in a Employee Misclassification bill.
Newman knows as well as all Republican Senators and Delegates that this Santurary could end if all bill requires ALL Contractors be Required to have all VEC Commission account and be subject to audits by the VEC, then a mandated notification requirement to have the VEC notifying the Dept.of Commerce, Taxation , Workers Comp Commission and DPOR of the use of unlicensed contractors.
But we know that they are already bought and not loyal to Va. Laws or legal employment.
The truth is plain answer simple , no testicular or moral fortitude by Va. Republicans.
There are many other issues that need correction. We have a better chance influencing Republican Legislators and not Democrats. Our bills will not be signed by a Dem Govenor.
I have just the person in mind who needs to see this. Well written
GREAT post. Thank you. Let’s not be the stupid party next week!
I totally agree! Gillespie, Vogel, and Adams can all win as long as we all don’t stay home.
That disgusting, racist, ad against Gillespie has certainly helped in motivating Republicans to get to the polls!
That pretty much sums it up.
Pollsters would be amazed again if Republicans won Virginia, but I wouldn’t be. Republicans LOST the last few elections. It wasn’t that Democrats were especially brilliant and certainly not that the “state has turned blue” (or whatever), it’s just that we had a Republican majority on the backs of the TEA Party that proceeded to raise taxes in Virginia, then there was an ongoing (and still ongoing) debate between the TEA Party branch of the GOP, the establishment folks, and the Libertarians, all of whom were really bitterly divided. The fires were also stoked every election cycle with the “Primary vs Convention” debate.
Democrats have abandoned large portions of the state and set up shop exclusively in the cities, so it isn’t like they have a winning strategy … they’re just trying to find a way to stop losing. Their party’s problems were concealed by the popularity of their last President, but since the debt collapse in 2008 the tide has been making life easy for conservatives, and there’s no indication that is going to stop anytime soon. In fact, the “right” (whatever that is) has been having an easy time of it in Europe and around the world lately, in places they haven’t been popular for decades.
Like I said, I think pollsters would be surprised if Republicans swept this election, but I wouldn’t be. Republicans basically screwed themselves in the last two governor’s races, and Gillespie seems much less contentious as a candidate than the last two, I wouldn’t even be that surprised if he won big. Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t be that surprised if he lost either.
Democrats seem to believe they’re going to have a “TEA Party” moment … but I don’t think they understand why that happened, and why it isn’t happening for them. They seem to just think they can double down on what has been losing elections for them and that somehow the pendulum will swing .. because Tao … or Zen … or something … and I don’t think they’ve really entertained the idea that they could just keep losing until their party really has it out and figures out what to do to attract voters back to the party.
Dems don’t need large portions of the state. All they need are the cities, where they outnumber the GOP. It works on the West Coast, why won’t it work in Virginia? In fact it would work in most states except they haven’t gotten the demographics set up yet. People are really going to be surprised one day when Texas returns to the blue column along with many other red states.
GOP Candidates have to fight them in the cities while keeping the rural areas in their pocket. It’s called serving the people, something modern politicians loathe.