Chaz Nuttycombe, a senior at Virginia Tech, correctly predicted all General assembly races this year. The results and analysis are below:
Chaz’s big takeaways from this data that people should note:
- HD-71 narrowly voted for Democratic Senate candidates in 2023 (~50 votes) while voting for Amanda Batten by nearly 700 votes.
- The abortion comment by Stirrup had a significant effect on ticket-splitting in the district. Josh Thomas did about 4 points better than Danica Roem in the district while Roem barely carried it; there wasn’t as much ticket-splitting in neighboring HD-22 (though there was more ticket-splitting in the SD-30 parts for Nembard of HD-22 than its SD-29 portion)
- Russet Perry had impressive rural appeal in SD-31, with Rob Banse running about 3 points behind the Senate candidates – most of the precincts in HD-30 are inside SD-31
- Bobby Orrock (R), the most senior member of the House in Spotsylvania, as well as Carrie Coyner (R) in Chesterfield are very popular incumbents. In HD-66, there was a 6-point difference in favor of Orrock, and in HD-75 a 4-point difference in favor of Coyner compared to the Senate results.
- Despite Nadarius Clark moving into an entirely new district, he did about 2 points better than Clint Jenkins in HD-84, who represented Suffolk in the House
- Karen Jenkins is an impressive candidate as she ran about 3 points ahead of the Senate candidates in her district, HD-89. Same goes for Michael Feggans in HD-97.
Congratulations to Chaz for the fine work he did on our election! His website is here.