From a horse race perspective, last night marked the beginning of the decline of the Trump phenomenon, and the rise of the conservative mainstream.
For most of the public, the presidential race did not come into focus until last night. Dominated by the biggest name (Bush) and the biggest mouth (duh) in the summer media doldrums, the campaign and the enormous field of candidates was too hard to understand for your average voter.
Today, after record viewership (an estimated 24 million, more than any other cable news program ever), the public was treated to an abundant buffet of highly-qualified and serious candidates–with many of those candidates getting their first opportunity to introduce themselves to the voting public.
In other words, the public is now much more aware of their choices than they were before. The candidates on the losing end of that are likely to be those with poll numbers inflated by early name ID (e.g., Bush) and Donald Trump, as conservatives discover they have a credible menu of other choices who are, to varying degrees, both more conservative and more electable than the early frontrunners.
The petals are starting fall off the Donald Trump bloom. This man, whose public life has been characterized by a series of opportunistic ideological oscillations that evince not a shred of understanding of what it means to be a conservative, came across as obnoxious–particularly to women. He’s right that immigration–a huge issue for mainstream conservatives–is only front and center now because he made it so. That’s a good thing, and he’s done us all a service by bringing the issue into sharp focus. But he’s not the guy to carry the message, and he further demonstrated last night that he’s not committed to the conservative cause unless the conservative cause first commits itself to him.
Governor Bush was clearly playing it safe, and seemed most focused on avoiding gaffes, which consequently made him appear on a few occasions to be stilted and stiff (and at least once, a bit nervous). This strategy by the best-funded candidate might pay off, but a better play would have been not to rely on being the “next-in-line” establishment favorite when (a) there are so many other attractive choices, and (b) there is a prevalent mood among conservatives to not anoint the next Mitt McDole.
Governor Christie had a good performance. Although Sen. Rand Paul is clearly right when he says it needn’t be a threat to national security to require a judicial warrant to conduct searches, Christie won his testy joust with the Kentucky senator, who had a flat performance overall.
The hometown favorite Governor John Kasich is a good thinker, and a good talker, and that came through as usual last night. He hasn’t yet reached his zenith, and has the stature and conservative credibility to go the distance, but I and many other conservatives struggled to keep down our dinners when he proclaimed expanding Medicaid under Obamacare was the Reaganite thing to do.
Dr. Ben Carson, well, we hardly knew ye. Governor Mike Huckabee again showed that he was probably the most articulate guy on the stage, but again also showed that he lacks star power. These two gentlemen are at the bottom of the pack in terms of likelihood of victory.
That leaves the three candidates who probably helped themselves the most, the mainstream conservative trio of Governor Scott Walker, Senator Marco Rubio, and Senator Ted Cruz. Cruz did a good job of positioning himself as the most solid movement conservative, but by doing so might have limited his appeal.
To me the ones to watch are Rubio, who shined and demonstrated that he could be a real asset at the top of the ticket, and Walker. The Wisconsin Governor has the experience of a chief executive like Bush and Christie but the conservative chops like Cruz and Paul. Plus, now he’s got Virginia Senator Mark Obenshain in his corner as his Virginia Chairman…a real coup, and a reminder that Obenshain is a smart player with a future.
Finally, the dark horse of this campaign emerged from the shadows yesterday when former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina absolutely dominated the under-card 5:00 PM debate. Her performance and the buzz surrounding it virtually guarantees a big bump in the polls, and a spot on the main stage for the next debate. She gave by far the most impressive performance of any candidate yesterday, and just might soon find herself in the top tier.
As liberal New York Times columnist Frank Bruni noted, “Fiorina weds Trump’s anger to an uncommon precision and propulsion: She’s a human torpedo.” Keep an eye on this one. And check out how she absolutely demolished Chris Matthews in a post-debate interview on MSNBC. You might not want her as your president, but you’re out of your mind if you don’t want her featured on the main stage:
24 comments
Walker calling himself “aggressively normal” was excellent, I think there are many people that are looking for competency and a steady hand and not celebrity. And while I think the Fox moderators, particularly Megyn Kelly, were exhibiting some celebrity personalities themselves, the post debate jabs from Trump were disgusting! Trump can’t stop the schtick, that will be his downfall.
Rubio was great, and even though I agree with Paul on many issues he continues to look and sound peevish. Kasich is a good communicator and people like him when they hear and see him, but the Medicaid problem is huge.
Of course Carly was great! However I already see some of our own folks sabatoging her with the same talking points against Romney on being a cruel and evil capitalist.
Cruz is one of the few who say what they mean and mean what they say. Chris Christie calling himself a conservative is exactly why it doesn’t matter much what they promise to do. They need a record of fighting for conservative values to stand on and that is all that matters.
Trump is where he is at today, solely because of the failing of the Republican Party over the past 25 years. I personally do not like Donald Trump. I am from New York City and I had my fill with him 25 years ago. So, I can understand where Steve is coming from. However, Trump is exactly right on too many things – long ignored by the GOP – for him to simply fade away after a gaffe or a disappointing night. He may tick off a lot of people, but as long as he is speaking on issues near and dear to me and the rest of the conservative rank and file, I want him in the arena taking on the likes of Jeb Bush and punching the face of that guilt-ridden, pampered, spoiled rich kid. I am also glad that he did not rule out a third party run, because in a three-way contest between Trump, Bush, and Hilary, I will vote for Trump. I know I speak for millions when I say that our days of voting for the likes of Dole, Bush, McCain, and Romney are long over.
You and I share a similar view of the debasement of the Republican Party base by the Republican Party establishment.
Regarding Trump, to pontificate out of thin air that the petals are beginning to fall off the bloom, how is this much different than the usual media ploy of making unsupported ‘statements of fact’ in order to discredit and/or destroy any particular unpalatable object? And why is it that Republicans establishment types don’t like Trump? If it is because Trump refuses to be owned heart, mind and soul by a political machine, then the mystery is solved. Trump, after all, was the only raised hand for conscience of mind preserved as the rightful property gifted to Man of God … and for me, this was the finest moment of the entire night. Only tyrants demand blind obedience. Political parties must earn the respect of their supporters.
As far as the rest of the candidates, there was no one I’d vote for. If neither the Republicans or Democrats can do better, then maybe they should hire the Donald to arrange a friendly merger with the Democrats? That way, there would be no choice and no one could be blamed for the destruction of America.
Steve I would agree with your comments. The candidate in this group that blends a competent voice , conservative chops while tapping into the voter angst propelling Trump will prevail. A couple of them are beginning to figure out the formula.
I am a female and I do love Donald. I think politicians are “stupid idiots”, with huge egos, are self-serving, and are liars. Donald is a successful business man that understands the need to run a country like a business.
This opinion page is really losing respect. Apparently Steve is confused on which candidates are conservatives. There won’t be more than three of those speaking that are really conservative. How many of those speaking will cut government growth, cut taxes, defend the constitution, speak out against and seek justice for all of the illegal activities that have occurred over this past 10 years. How many will go after the Federal Reserve and demand an audit. But really, this easily is as bad as any debate that has ever been produced. Have you made some decisions about these candidates? Based on what. Your diatribe was silly and I think you have the outcome of this election wrong. Voting for a RINO is not going to happen this time.
David Jackson
David …
I agree. The opinion page is beginning to sometimes look like a propagandist’s work board … and the conversation is more Romper Room than grown-ups dealing with substantive topics such as you mention. Thanks for the comment.
Sorry you feel that way, daverkb. But on whose behalf are we allegedly propagandizing?
Steve …
Is this really a serious reply? And whatever happened to the self-evident truth?
David, who is advocating voting for a RINO around here? And about which candidates am I confused? The point of the article is that the mainstream conservatives won (i.e., not Trump, and not the so-called “establishment” candidate). If your point in response is that Trump is actually the conservative in the race, well, I do not think that word means what you think it means.
I’m no Trump supporter but I do recognize the pitfall of the “self fulling prophecy” and I believe you are well mired in it at this point regarding the observable facts regarding Donald Trump and the grip he has on the throat of a cowardly Republican establishment. A light weight like Obama has clearly bent this bunch to his will and unless one of these candidates steps outside the talking point box, ignores their useless paid political consulting advice and goes toe to toe with him, I believe he is far from done. I guess the forthcoming poll numbers will tell the tale of who is correct and who is not, but my gut instinct tells me this is far from over and his support is not on the decline. The typical politician is large on bluster but short on confrontational skills and this is a guy you won’t bluster away, you need to confront him. Our problems are huge and if you can’t handle a Donald Trump you are very unlikely to be able to handle a do nothing Congress stocked to the brim with crony leadership. I look forward to seeing who has the right stuff otherwise this will be a long game and even the RNC in all their wisdom can’t build Jeb Bush a backbone overnight.
Thank you for your comment.
I too have had my belly full of cowardly Republican establishment types parading around as ‘conservatives’ — whatever that is?
By the way, Trump’s business was built on top of the life time’s work of his father … who was a pretty sharp businessman in his own right. Trump took what his father built and increased it something like ten times over. In New York City (home base), that takes some doing with all the political characters and even the mob involved in construction. I have to respect that too. A tough man in a very tough world.
And he prospered in one of the most socialistic cities in the World.
Ah! This is true! And a discerning comment! NYC is a large despicable Socialistic cistern of sewerage, politically speaking.
Trump is like a better emperor in the old Roman world. The better emperors extended the lease on life by a better administration of government, but never restored the republic.
We are in a sad spot. We badly need an authentic Liberty radical transformation from the base (bottoms up!). Trouble is, most Republican committees are Romper Rooms populated by non-entities promoting the non-entities.
We have been so dumbed down by political correctness that it is difficult to say what we mean in simple and straightforward terms. We used to call people permanently living on the street “bums” now they are “homeless”. We use to call the folks with serious physical problems “handicapped” now they are “physically challenged”. We used to call people who jumped our borders “illegals” not we call them “undocumented immigrants. I could go on an on but what this does is diminish the clarity of discourse and cause great confusion. This immigrant situation has been so deliberately confused that we can’t even distinguish between naturalized citizens, legal immigrants, and illegals when it comes to simple discourse.
You point to defrauding words of meanings, and entire conversations defrauded of real content, all by a purposefully perpetrated semantic fraud. But it goes much deep, because the perpetrated fraud pervades (like Agenda 21, by the way) all areas of human action.
We are told we have money, but there is none. We act as though government were lawful, but it is color of law. We are told we have property rights, but we do not own our ‘vehicles,’ our houses, our bank accounts, our brokerage accounts. We are told we have rights constitutionally affirmed, but those rights are always civil permissions in the corporate courts.
Until people learn how they, over many decades, have been systematically defrauded of their rightful ownership of self as extends into all areas of life, including government, our goose is as good as cooked. As the Good Book says, “My people perish for a lack of knowledge.”
Thank you for your comments. An appreciation of words is much appreciated.
Hmm, I think Cruz came in first and Trump second in last night’s debate. I’m a woman and pretty Conservative and I have absolutely no problem with Donald Trump. He dealt with obnoxious Megny Kelly nicer than she deserved after she tried and failed playing her #WarOnWomen card on Trump. I think he held his own last night quite well in Fox’s over-the-top attacks on him. And he’s absolutely correct, we don’t have time for political correctness in this country anymore.
I think your projection of Trump’s decline is premature.
I agree with you here: Carly Fiorina aced the early debate. I look forward to her being on the main stage next time.
You may be right, Connie. I could be reading this wrongly. I was actually surprised at the negative reaction to Fox’s handling of the debate, too (I thought they were tough but fair), so I might just not be seeing the full picture from your viewpoint.
From the very first question, the Fox moderators tried to create controversy. While i thought the first question was OK, it was obviously directed at Trump who had previously said he was not going to be tied down to running as a Republican if he felt he was unfairly treated. I had hoped that a couple of other candidates would take a similar tact but they didn’t.
The Kelly “war on women” question was argumentative – something that a moderator is supposed to avoid and was similar to the interruption by Candy Crowley that froze Romney during his debate with Obama. I found it significant that the question was not delivered by either male moderator and was actually the first direct question to Trump. I thought his answer was OK, but then he continued to slam Kelly after the debate which was not OK.
Also, let us not make too much out of Fiorina. She was in a weak field and shined appropriately. I think she would make an excellent VP candidate – much better, for example, than Palin. Hopefully, she will move up to the bigger stage for the next debate where she will have to compete with tougher candidates – including Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Walker.
I went into last night’s entertainment thinking that Trump is a self-serving, arrogant, braggart and bully. After last night, I changed my mind. I am now convinced that he is a self-serving, arrogant, braggart and bully … with zero loyalty to the Republican party. His brutish demeanor and vacuous responses were a complete turn off. Dislike has turned to loathing.
Is he any worse than Obama or Hillary. If so, how? Since I like Cruz, I have no real pony in the race, but I have to point our that your statement is missing comparisons.
I will of course support the Republican nominee. ANY candidate is an improvement over Obama or Hillary or Sanders.