The Latest GDP Numbers Show a Hot Economy Heading into 2026 and that Should Help Republicans Keep Their Majorities in Congress.
Wall Street was pleasantly surprised this morning when the data on economic growth was released. It turns out that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a rate of 4.3 percent in the 3rd quarter of 2025. This is the highest growth rate we have seen in two years. And add to that last week’s report showing an annual Inflation rate at a small 2.7 percent. Now wages are increasing faster than inflation. It looks like the country is heading into a prosperous 2026. In addition to the GDP and inflation numbers, Christmas spending and travel spending is also up, gas prices are down, and the stock market keeps setting records – all positive signs.
This has got to be welcome news to Republicans on Capitol Hill. It is evidence that the Trump policies, which they voted for, are working. Such good numbers, and if they continue, they will justify Trump’s superlatives such as “We have the hottest economy in the world.” If sustained, these numbers will justify Trump’s optimism and vindicate his policies. And the argument that Trump needs a Republican congress to continue the progress can be a winning one.
Trump was inaugurated in January of this year and already his policies of deregulation, cuts in spending, reversal of Biden’s green (no energy) policies, executive orders to help domestic energy producers are working. And he sealed the border, which stopped millions of poor people from coming into our country. You don’t need to be an economist to know that importing millions of poor people into your country, many of whom can’t speak English, never helps the economy. It stretches resources and public services, floods hospitals and hotels, and costs billions of dollars.
There are other accomplishments to point to as well. On the foreign policy front, the war in Gaza is over, and Russia is negotiating to end their war in Ukraine, and Trump destroyed the Iranian nuclear program. Trump’s use of the National Guard has cut crime in DC. He forced universities and colleges that receive Federal money to stop discriminating in hiring and admissions. His administration also stripped out woke and DEI policies from our military and out of the Federal agencies, military recruitments are up, and he ended the left’s great slush fund USAID- no more American taxpayer money to spend on drag shows in Ecuador.
Now there are those who will argue that the latest positive economic statistics are one thing, but how people feel about the economy, and in particular their own economic situation, may be entirely different. True, but 4.3 percent GDP growth rate, if sustained, or even at a more modest 4 percent, or even upper 3’s, will be felt.
It’s anecdotal, but even I, not a particularly observant fellow, have noticed the falling gas prices. I passed a gas station in Clifton today that is always expensive, but I noticed that their regular gas was under 3 a gallon. Falling gas prices will not go unnoticed by consumers for long.
A growing economy, low inflation and falling gas prices in 2026 can keep Republicans in control of Congress.
Sure, historically the Party in the White House loses seats in the midterm election. The average is around 20 seats in the House, and today the Republican majority is just a few seats. Democrats believe that their retaking of at least one, if not both Houses of Congress next year is inevitable. Sadly, a lot of Republicans are starting to believe that as well. But it is not true. Republicans have a great case to make, and Democrats can’t just rely on historical trends.
Why should Republicans be confident? Well, a good economy trumps everything, and Democrats have their own unique problems. For one thing, they are unpopular as hell; they have not changed one bit from last year when they lost everything; and they are still way too far to the left for the average American voter.
The other problem for Democrats is that all of their energy is coming from their left flank, and because of this they are going to nominate a lot of unelectable far-left fringe candidates. For example, in Texas they are likely to nominate the far-left Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. By doing so they are not just giving up the chance to pick up a Senate seat, but they risk a spillover effect, which will hurt other Democrats. That is, she will get plenty of national attention and she will turn off voters in other states. When it comes to a personality or a face that you want to represent your Party, Jasmine Crockett is about as ugly as it can get.
And New York City will swear into the mayor’s office Zohran Mamdani, a Democrat, no surprise, but this Democrat is a socialist. He will be the mayor of the largest and most important city in the country. He may very well become the face of the Democratic Party. All his bad policies and decisions will get national attention. This is not good for Democrats who need to moderate their image to win in swing states and competitive districts in the midterms.
Between the good economy, Zohran Mamdani’s misrule, and the far-left Democrat candidates, Republicans have a great shot at bucking the historical trend and holding on to Congress. They can hold on to their majorities, I can even hear Trump on election night claiming, “Nobody thought it could be done.”
David is the author of two books: Elections Have Consequences, A Cautionary Tale.
Norton’s Choice: An Inside Politics Exposé: Shephard, David: 9781892538802: Amazon.com: Books
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About that GDP growth — not so fast.
President Donald Trump and his helpers are cheering prematurely over some good economic numbers that came out this month, according to Los Angeles Times reporter Michael Hiltzik.
On Dec. 18, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that inflation had fallen to an annual rate of 2.7 percent in November, down from 3 percent in September. Then, on Tuesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product had gone up by a surprising 4.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2025….
“Um, not so fast,” said Hiltzik, pointing out that the 43-day government shutdown from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12 was the most important cause of gaps in the collected data for the consumer price index calculation.
“You’ve got to take it with a grain of salt,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG US, of the inflation report. “It’s confusing and it doesn’t quite square with prices that we’ve observed.”
Swonk said Trump’s steep cutbacks at the BLS had already reduced the staff assigned to sampling prices by 25 percent. That prompted the agency to substitute “imputed” numbers in lieu of hard data.
“Those cases can show up as zeros in the percent change of the release,” Swonk wrote, which lowers the bottom-line figure. In fact, a sampling scheduled for mid-October had to be canceled, so figures dating from August were used instead. This conceals any price increases in subsequent months.
“A major problem concerns housing costs, which account for about one-third of the data inputs for the (Consumer Price Index),” Hiltzik reports. “Because the BLS was unable to collect rental data for October, it implied that the monthly change in rents was 0 percent in October — further skewing the reported CPI lower. Experts say it will take at least six months to use newly collected data to provide a reliable estimate of housing inflation.”
China is investing billions in Latin America, planning to sideline US farmers for decades to come.
Chinese state-backed money is remaking South American ports — from Santos to Chancay — reshaping grain routes to Asia and squeezing U.S. farmers as tariffs deepen the split with Washington.
Chinese port upgrades in South America currently focus on ports in Brazil and Peru. The upgrades to both ports’ infrastructure will facilitate making them a hub for the export of minerals like lithium, copper, and agricultural products such as SOYBEANS TO CHINA. In other words, the Chinese plan on shifting their agricultural imports from the U.S. to South America.
Yes, that’s it – Trump – for whom about 99% of soybean farmers voted for — has screwed them over for the foreseeable future by driving the Chinese to other agricultural suppliers who don’t throw tariffs at China.
How are American farmers taking this grand news? As always, the few who do comment for these types of articles try to put up a stoic face:
As China establishes new trade routes across Latin America, every new port or shipping lane makes a future recovery for U.S. farmers more challenging.
US soybean farmers are somewhat confused, don’t know what to expect. Their opinions and outlook are all over the place.
“I don’t think our relationship with China has been damaged,” one Iowa soybean farmer said. “China is a low-cost buyer and will need soybeans from the U.S. for a long time. But we will never be their number one source.”
The quote is from April Hemmes, and Iowan farmer. She does admit that the U.S. though is not a “reliable partner” because of politics. Also, she doesn’t believe the Chinese will buy the 12 million metric tons of soybeans they promised by January of 2026. She just doesn’t think it’s possible to do that now. The number of metric tons ordered by China from the U.S. has not yet been confirmed, but it’s definitely not 12 million metric tons as of yet.
Oh, and Trump loving soybean farmer Caleb Ragland says:
“U.S. soybean farmers are standing at a trade and financial precipice,” Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, wrote in a statement.
Ragland has been pounding that same damn dumb drumbeat this entire year. He still believes in his heart that Trump is going to save the day. Somehow.
But the “deal” that Trump made with the Chinese means that soybean farmers are going to be selling LESS over the length of Trump’s second term and likely well past then.
The facts are that the Chinese are going to expand those port facilities to exceed the capacity of current American ports. It is not pretty. Let’s t focus on secondary impacts to the economy: Reduced soybean exports mean (1) dock workers are not going to have jobs; (2) the US will not need as many trucks and river barges to transport soybeans to ports; (3) the communities that depend on soybean exports to China will go into permanent recession.
Meanwhile, agriculture analysts admit these latest moves by the Chinese mean a PERMANENT SHIFT away from American farmers to South America instead. Why: BECAUSE OF TRUMP AND HIS TARIFFS –the Chinese want reliable partners who will treat them fairly and not pull political stunts.
Way to go Trump!
An Ode to Trump
Ozymandias, King of Kings
I met a traveller from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desart. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
“My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!”
No thing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.
— Percy Shelley, “Ozymandias”, 1819 edition
“No thing remains . . . “
I agree with your analysis 100%. The speed in which Trump has turned the federal government is breathtaking, and Americans are now starting to feel the positive effects of his policies.
We are bombing fishermen in Venezuela and now bombing fields in Nigeria. Nigerian locals report the US attack hit mostly farm fields and caused little damage and no casualties.
What do Venezuela and Nigeria have in common?
OIL.
Nothing to do with drug trafficking or “protecting Christian’s.” It’s all about oil.
The GDP growth rate is NOT anywhere close to 4.3%. Furthermore, prices of what we who make up the mass of voters continue to rise and there is not end in sight.
Remember: Trump fired damn near everyone in the Dept of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics and replaced them — those who were replaced — with his own people who pull numbers out of thin air.
Democrats rigged the DOL numbers for years. Trump finally corrected the wrong. Not the same as the DOJ, but the WSJ did an analysis of the Federal Reserve a couple of years ago and found that 93% of the 22,000 people working at the Fed were Democrats. That doesn’t happen by accident. “People are policy.” Democrats have been stacking the deck with their lackeys for decades. Trump is finally cleaning up their grossly biased mess.